The German Kiel Institute has published a disturbing, but accurate report on German and European defense. The report suggests that the overall picture for Germany, Europe and the United States, is grim.
“It is ultimately not economically sustainable to shoot down a $100 or $1,000 drone with a $1m plus interceptor,” said James Black, defence researcher at Rand Europe, a non-profit research institute.
Seems to me we have a military designed to enrich contractors and spread lard across 50 states rather than one designed to defend the nation in 2024.
Pity Israel's soon to be deployed cheap-to-use laser Iron Beam was not discussed in the usual informative article. Its outline specifications are published and it could be a "game changer" against drone swarm attacks. If so its going to be in great demand particularly in Nato. But they will have to drastically "change their tune" viz Israel
Israel has the same problem, overrated western weapons that underperform, and an underestimated opponent with weapons that perform much better than expected. Did you see the DOD report about the F-35 that only meets 20% to 30% of requirements? Israel's end seems near.
"....it points out how unprepared Germany and other European countries are should Russia attack them." But why, for heaven's sake, would the Russians attack us? Remember that they withdrew all their troops from Eastern Europe. If Nato had stayed out of all these countries, as was more or less agreed upon, there would be no problem today and the war in Ukraine would not have happened.
It's all propaganda. More than a violent Russia the Germans fear a strong Russia. Hate towards Russia is deeply engrained in the German society that is being openly displayed by transatlantic hawks. Many German politicians are openly working or have been working with US think tanks. Only former leader Schröder was different, because he lost his father in WW2 and he had close relationships with Putin. However, he is now a political outcast in Germany and isolated even amongst his own party members in the SPD.
The info from Keil confirms what has been obvious to those watching the conflict play out, and supports the contention that related information put out by Ukraine has been consistently fabricated for propaganda purchases and repeated by western media, for the same reasons.
The fuss made about the THAAD systems provided to Israel by the US are yet another subject replete with high hopes fueled by the propagandists, rather than a realistic evaluation of the combat effectiveness, whether the US is provided 2 or 4 of the systems. THAADs are easily overwhelmed, not all that accurate against Iran's better missiles in its arsenal and never have even been tested against advanced missiles.
The other important point in the interesting essay, is the use of GDP as a cost yardstick in high-cost NATO countries. PPP (purchasing power parity) would be much more appropriate than GDP.
PPP shows that China, which does about 1/3 of all manufacturing in the world, if a much more robust economy than the USA, which does about 12% of global manufacturing. Even though the US has a higher GDP, a government or individual can buy much more with their money than a Govt. or individual in NATO.
The 2023 Chinese US$296 Billion Defense Spending (or the Russian US$109 Billion) does not mean that it got less equipment for its money than the USA, which spent US$916 Billion the same year, especially when you consider the US spent loads of money on (somewhere between 800 and 1000) foreign bases, something that its rivals don't do very much of.
Those NATO grandees that stood laughing at Trump when he demanded Nato nations spend more are not laughing any more. Funny how often he was right. If Europe was invaded I say let them handle it by themselves. They are not worth defending now. They are not free nations.
But there’s no corruption in the West, right? That only happens in third world countries. The $10,000 price tag the US Air Force pays for a toilet seat lid is quite reasonable. Think of the poor defence contractor’s kids- they’ve got to eat too!
And let’s make another thing perfectly clear: under no circumstance are kick-backs to politicians involved. Their hands are clean in all this, lily white. None of the money paid for defence procurement ever finds its way back to the politicians who are handing it out. That would be dishonest, and one thing we know for certain about politicians, they’re honest if nothing else.
Many thanks Stephen for your consistently candid assessments of the Russia-Ukraine war over the past two years. I still remember hearing/reading all of the MSM "reporting" and having a hard time believing that all of the "news" was good and nothing ever went wrong. Found you in the Asia Times and have followed you ever since.
PS. The damn fool Europeans have been fighting and killing each other for the last 1500 years or so just about non stop. It’s time they figured out how to quit
The answer is stop the endless war mongering and start making peace. Trump should announce the end of the UN. the end of NATO. the end of troops in Europe and elsewhere. Build up our defenses and negotiate peace
I don’t think he’d have the authority to end the UN singlehanded. However, the USA might quit hosting the UN, which would then presumably find a home in a more neutral location—Vienna perhaps? The city already has some UN infrastructure available.
It’s only disturbing if you think that Russia is somehow a threat to Europe.
Centuries of history have shown a united force from the European peninsula to be covetous of Russia’s resources, not vice versa: first Poland-Lithuania, then Sweden, later France, and most recently Germany.
Admittedly, my country among others in Eastern Europe did host Soviet troops for around 40 years from 1948, however, this can be seen more as a Soviet effort to create strategic depth to preempt a further attack, rather than an expansionary policy in itself.
I think the report highlights what you and others have been saying here. The German army is a joke. It was starved to death by corrupt politicians like Ursula von der Leyen. However, one must smile and laugh at those Germans.
First they help provoke a war against Russia where everyone was certain Russia would lose due to the sanctions and now they have no way out. CDU leader Merz who will likely win the next elections, issued a warning last week stating either Russia will move its troops back or Germany will deliver long range missiles to Ukraine.
How are they going to fight a war if Russia loses its patience and strikes Germany?
In the meantime, Germany's manufacturing industry is leaving the country and the entire country is an recession again.
The left in Germany is saying the US is using Germany as a pawn. The US goal was to cut Germany's ties to Russia. Indeed the US has been the biggest beneficiary of this war. Sadly, there are too many German politicians who are working for US interests only and Germany is on it's way to go down the drain with or without a functioning army.
More importantly, someone should be put into prison. But nobody is being held accountable for anything in the US. Tell me who was held accountable for the Afghanistan and Iraq debacle? It's shameful.
Ahhhh, yes. Vindman, the guy who testified at the Trump impeachment hearings, in uniform insisting that he be addressed by his rank, and said the sitting President should be impeached for subverting America's interests by interfering with his (Vindman's) preferred policy in Ukraine.
And what was Vindman's policy.....keeping Poroshenko in power as President of Ukraine and keeping Zelensky out of power regardless of elections. Zelensky was presenting himself as the peace candidate at the time and was supported by then President Trump.
Whatever happened to "there is no room for diplomacy, it has to be resolved on the field of battle and we have to incur a strategic Russian defeat"? Oh, how the mighty fall. I had a discussion with a dude in 2016 who believed NATO outguns Russia so hard that the conflict will immediately become nuclear. Whoops.
Sure, but don't forget that they believed their own fantasies. Russia was a gas station with Nukes right? Their economy would tank immediately upon the first set of sanctions right? Their army was sub-par right? Their soldiers are unmotivated right?
They actually believed all this, still do for a lot of them.
In fact, I strongly believe that Russia is still keeping more than 50% of its army as a reserve, not to be used in the Ukraine at all (perhaps some rotation for experience maybe). This reserve is for the NATO if it decides to attack. (they won't imo, but still it's good practice to keep a large standing reserve)
Сейчас ,каким бы странным это не показалось , меня больше интересует - не это "озарение" Кильского института , с его бухгалтерскими выкладками . Интересует - на основании каких аналитических отчетов , было принято решение удушить экономически Россию , используя при этом минимум собственных средств и ,максимум пропаганды, информационного "превосходства" ? Нисколько не сомневаюсь - упор был сделан именно на Экономику , недовольных россиян !
Возникает вопрос : Не Кильский (подобные)ли ,институт принимал участие в составлении ТОГО, "судьбоносного" отчета ,на основании которого - Запад спустил с цепи Украину ?
In the Financial Times yesterday:
“It is ultimately not economically sustainable to shoot down a $100 or $1,000 drone with a $1m plus interceptor,” said James Black, defence researcher at Rand Europe, a non-profit research institute.
Seems to me we have a military designed to enrich contractors and spread lard across 50 states rather than one designed to defend the nation in 2024.
Thanks. He is right but there are not alternative choices right now.
Besides diplomacy?
Pity Israel's soon to be deployed cheap-to-use laser Iron Beam was not discussed in the usual informative article. Its outline specifications are published and it could be a "game changer" against drone swarm attacks. If so its going to be in great demand particularly in Nato. But they will have to drastically "change their tune" viz Israel
Israel has the same problem, overrated western weapons that underperform, and an underestimated opponent with weapons that perform much better than expected. Did you see the DOD report about the F-35 that only meets 20% to 30% of requirements? Israel's end seems near.
The tradeoff is between a $1M interceptor and the damage a $1000 drone or $10,000 rocket can cause.
Great point.
"....it points out how unprepared Germany and other European countries are should Russia attack them." But why, for heaven's sake, would the Russians attack us? Remember that they withdrew all their troops from Eastern Europe. If Nato had stayed out of all these countries, as was more or less agreed upon, there would be no problem today and the war in Ukraine would not have happened.
It's all propaganda. More than a violent Russia the Germans fear a strong Russia. Hate towards Russia is deeply engrained in the German society that is being openly displayed by transatlantic hawks. Many German politicians are openly working or have been working with US think tanks. Only former leader Schröder was different, because he lost his father in WW2 and he had close relationships with Putin. However, he is now a political outcast in Germany and isolated even amongst his own party members in the SPD.
Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler is correct: "War is a racket."
The info from Keil confirms what has been obvious to those watching the conflict play out, and supports the contention that related information put out by Ukraine has been consistently fabricated for propaganda purchases and repeated by western media, for the same reasons.
The fuss made about the THAAD systems provided to Israel by the US are yet another subject replete with high hopes fueled by the propagandists, rather than a realistic evaluation of the combat effectiveness, whether the US is provided 2 or 4 of the systems. THAADs are easily overwhelmed, not all that accurate against Iran's better missiles in its arsenal and never have even been tested against advanced missiles.
The other important point in the interesting essay, is the use of GDP as a cost yardstick in high-cost NATO countries. PPP (purchasing power parity) would be much more appropriate than GDP.
PPP shows that China, which does about 1/3 of all manufacturing in the world, if a much more robust economy than the USA, which does about 12% of global manufacturing. Even though the US has a higher GDP, a government or individual can buy much more with their money than a Govt. or individual in NATO.
The 2023 Chinese US$296 Billion Defense Spending (or the Russian US$109 Billion) does not mean that it got less equipment for its money than the USA, which spent US$916 Billion the same year, especially when you consider the US spent loads of money on (somewhere between 800 and 1000) foreign bases, something that its rivals don't do very much of.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/
Those NATO grandees that stood laughing at Trump when he demanded Nato nations spend more are not laughing any more. Funny how often he was right. If Europe was invaded I say let them handle it by themselves. They are not worth defending now. They are not free nations.
I think you’ve summed it up well, Stephen.
But there’s no corruption in the West, right? That only happens in third world countries. The $10,000 price tag the US Air Force pays for a toilet seat lid is quite reasonable. Think of the poor defence contractor’s kids- they’ve got to eat too!
And let’s make another thing perfectly clear: under no circumstance are kick-backs to politicians involved. Their hands are clean in all this, lily white. None of the money paid for defence procurement ever finds its way back to the politicians who are handing it out. That would be dishonest, and one thing we know for certain about politicians, they’re honest if nothing else.
Many thanks Stephen for your consistently candid assessments of the Russia-Ukraine war over the past two years. I still remember hearing/reading all of the MSM "reporting" and having a hard time believing that all of the "news" was good and nothing ever went wrong. Found you in the Asia Times and have followed you ever since.
Great Article!
We've shared the link on our report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Thank you.
PS. The damn fool Europeans have been fighting and killing each other for the last 1500 years or so just about non stop. It’s time they figured out how to quit
The answer is stop the endless war mongering and start making peace. Trump should announce the end of the UN. the end of NATO. the end of troops in Europe and elsewhere. Build up our defenses and negotiate peace
I don’t think he’d have the authority to end the UN singlehanded. However, the USA might quit hosting the UN, which would then presumably find a home in a more neutral location—Vienna perhaps? The city already has some UN infrastructure available.
"The pricing of defense equipment is making defense companies rich, but not helping the overall cause of security"
So what's new?
That has always been 'the bottom line'.
As Country Joe sang:
Well c'mon on Wall Street
don't be slow
why this is war a-go-go
there's plenty good money to be made
by supplin' the Army with the tools of the trade...
And it's 1, 2, 3, what're we fighting for?
don't ask me, I don't give a damn.
It’s only disturbing if you think that Russia is somehow a threat to Europe.
Centuries of history have shown a united force from the European peninsula to be covetous of Russia’s resources, not vice versa: first Poland-Lithuania, then Sweden, later France, and most recently Germany.
Admittedly, my country among others in Eastern Europe did host Soviet troops for around 40 years from 1948, however, this can be seen more as a Soviet effort to create strategic depth to preempt a further attack, rather than an expansionary policy in itself.
I think the report highlights what you and others have been saying here. The German army is a joke. It was starved to death by corrupt politicians like Ursula von der Leyen. However, one must smile and laugh at those Germans.
First they help provoke a war against Russia where everyone was certain Russia would lose due to the sanctions and now they have no way out. CDU leader Merz who will likely win the next elections, issued a warning last week stating either Russia will move its troops back or Germany will deliver long range missiles to Ukraine.
How are they going to fight a war if Russia loses its patience and strikes Germany?
In the meantime, Germany's manufacturing industry is leaving the country and the entire country is an recession again.
The left in Germany is saying the US is using Germany as a pawn. The US goal was to cut Germany's ties to Russia. Indeed the US has been the biggest beneficiary of this war. Sadly, there are too many German politicians who are working for US interests only and Germany is on it's way to go down the drain with or without a functioning army.
Probably wasn’t a great idea to start a war with Russia when NATO is at such a huge disadvantage in military capacity and production.
The credit should go to Victoria Nuland and the Vindman idiots - someone should have put a leash on those three...
More importantly, someone should be put into prison. But nobody is being held accountable for anything in the US. Tell me who was held accountable for the Afghanistan and Iraq debacle? It's shameful.
Ahhhh, yes. Vindman, the guy who testified at the Trump impeachment hearings, in uniform insisting that he be addressed by his rank, and said the sitting President should be impeached for subverting America's interests by interfering with his (Vindman's) preferred policy in Ukraine.
And what was Vindman's policy.....keeping Poroshenko in power as President of Ukraine and keeping Zelensky out of power regardless of elections. Zelensky was presenting himself as the peace candidate at the time and was supported by then President Trump.
Whatever happened to "there is no room for diplomacy, it has to be resolved on the field of battle and we have to incur a strategic Russian defeat"? Oh, how the mighty fall. I had a discussion with a dude in 2016 who believed NATO outguns Russia so hard that the conflict will immediately become nuclear. Whoops.
Sure, but don't forget that they believed their own fantasies. Russia was a gas station with Nukes right? Their economy would tank immediately upon the first set of sanctions right? Their army was sub-par right? Their soldiers are unmotivated right?
They actually believed all this, still do for a lot of them.
In fact, I strongly believe that Russia is still keeping more than 50% of its army as a reserve, not to be used in the Ukraine at all (perhaps some rotation for experience maybe). This reserve is for the NATO if it decides to attack. (they won't imo, but still it's good practice to keep a large standing reserve)
Спасибо ,Стивен !
Сейчас ,каким бы странным это не показалось , меня больше интересует - не это "озарение" Кильского института , с его бухгалтерскими выкладками . Интересует - на основании каких аналитических отчетов , было принято решение удушить экономически Россию , используя при этом минимум собственных средств и ,максимум пропаганды, информационного "превосходства" ? Нисколько не сомневаюсь - упор был сделан именно на Экономику , недовольных россиян !
Возникает вопрос : Не Кильский (подобные)ли ,институт принимал участие в составлении ТОГО, "судьбоносного" отчета ,на основании которого - Запад спустил с цепи Украину ?
It's called the Military-Industrial Complex.
Ike wanted to say 'Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex', but was persuaded that might be seen as... political.
Or as an earlier president said:
The business of America is business.
And NATO is the enforcement arm of American business.
And damned good business itself.