It is hard to see what Russia would gain from a cessation of hostilities and a 'negotiated settlement'. The purpose of the SMO was the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, at this time, the AFU is still resisting (with the help of NATO) and the Bamderites remain in power. To coin a phrase, the only way this conflict can be resolved is via the unequivocal defeat of one of the combatants on the battlefield. Any negotiations which take place will ALWAYS be predicated upon a temporary ceasefire which will allow Ukraine to re-arm and start the conflict again in 5-10 years whilst 'frozen Russian assets' are used to bolster the Bamderites via reconstruction.
There is no one the Russians can negotiate with. Furthermore, before Trump makes a deal, he has to remove all the people in government who will sabotage his efforts.
Will be difficult to achieve. Moreover, Trump is interested in moving European industry to the US and that is more likely to happen if the conflict is left unresolved. At the moment, there are now three incentives for such an industry move:
(1) cheap energy,
(2) the coming across the board US tariffs on imports and,
(3) less value for localating production in Europe since the goods can not be moved eastward.
Ukraine has lost too many trained soldiers of all ranks to be able to fight effectively and mount a credible defense. The.steady increase of territory conquered by Russia and the increasing rate of casualties inflicted on the Ukrainian forces both indicate the Ukrainian army is now being overwhelmed. If Zelensky wants to preserve any future economic viability, he will sue for peace immediately, before the Russians seize the Black Sea port city of Odessa. There will not be a deal, except the one Putin and Lavrov have outlined over the past three years: Ukraine shall be neutral going forward; Ukraine shall be disarmed, maintaining only a force necessary to keep domestic security; and the heirs of Stefan Banderas will be purged from both army and governmental ranks. Ukraine will be striped of the four oblasts Russia has absorbed. If this sounds as if Russia will dictate terms, you would be correct. You get to do that when you crush your foe on the battlefield. Let’s stop kidding ourselves. We lost all leverage on the battlefield. We will not be able resurrect lost leverage at the conference table.
President Trump's best move would be to direct Zelensky to order an immediate cease fire and to commence negotiations with Russia -- and then, when Zelensky of course refuses, to order an immediate end to all US financial, military, and informational support for the Ukraine. "Joe Biden" walked away from Afghanistan; why shouldn't President Trump walk away from the Ukraine?
Let's not lose sight of the approaching major decision point. When Russia has driven Zelensky's forces out of the 4 oblasts which have joined Russia, the territorial objectives of the Special Military Operation will have been achieved ... but the more important objectives of demilitarization, denazification, and rolling back NATO expansion/aggression will not have been achieved. What will Russia do then?
(It seems the jamming as a new NATO secret weapon may in fact have been the 'point' of the desperate move, but that the Russians were somehow ready for it?)
I don't have a good answer but Ukraine's forward operators are putting jammers on almost all their vehicles, or at least they say so. How good they are is an entirely different matter. You are right that the Russians are using fiber-optic guided drones and smart bomb kits that cannot easily be jammed.
I read that the fiber-optic spool cassettes come from China, and get the impression this is a new phase of drone warfare, even though wire-giided anti-tank rockets were introduced by the British in WW2 after the Germans managed to jam RF guidance.
It is not surprising that Trump's team has not shown their cards to anyone yet. Feelers to help understand your adversary are necessary to establish a negotiation plan. At least all sides have begun to signal a peaceful solution is possible. Biden's refusal to engage with Russia in any meaningful way has done nothing to enhance Ukraine's position in this war. Incompetence , ignorance and petulance describe Biden's administration. The world will soon see what real leadership is once Trump is in office.
It will be interesting to see how Trump's foreign policy - if 'policy' is the right word - unfolds.
He has no ideology or principles except desperately wanting to appear to win the game, get an 'unbelievable' deal.
And as has become quickly clear, he'll feel in a second term largely free of earlier constraints from his crazy 'base' when it suits him.
If this, in combination with more experience (though he's not a great learner) and maybe some smarter people around him than the first time round, produces in practice something more like pragmatic 'realism' than Biden's braindead neoconservatism, I may risk a sigh of relief.
But I don't expect everything to settle into anything like rational, principled policy over the next four years.
It seems that the Kiev Regime's only military operations are photo ops based on propaganda rather than military necessity. Take the latest Ukrainian attack in the Kursk Salient (still can't believe I am talking of the Kursk Salient in the present tense rather than the 1943 one). A minor company battle group attack - one of many that happen on both sides of the front every day has been elevated to the status as though it was the major strategic attack on Moscow by the Western Media.
But it does serve a purpose of encouraging the West that Ukraine is winning, that there is good news - so at the Ramstein meeting Zelensky can say "keep supporting us with all that money and weapons - we are winning". In the meantime, the Russian advances all along the line from the Kupiansk to the Donetz are ignored, and that is where the real war will be won.
The Kursk Salient is a military dead end, and was a dead end when the offensive started, which the Ukrainian Command keeps insisting on reinforcing, even as the Donetz Front is screaming out for more men and equipment. Yet now so great is the concentration of Russian troops in this direction that any withdrawal is likely to see the Russians follow up and cross into the Ukraine creating another front that will continue to suck Ukrainians into its maul.
The only side who can finish this is Russia as it has the troops on the ground, and Trump if he wants to concentrate on other priorities and close this down, he will have to exceed to Russian demands. The question is: Will Trump want to agree to these demands, and will the US Administration let him accept them (remember the discussions with Little Rocket Man in Trump 1.0)? Otherwise, the Russians will just keep advancing until they get what they want. Then the question will be: How much of Ukraine will be left and who will pick up the pieces?
It is clear to any rational observer that zelensky is mentally unstable with no regard for his unfortunate countrymen. Giving weapons to such a person in his situation, is like giving drugs to a drug addict with a death wish. Mind you Biden and the eurotrash are probably supplying him those as well.
A point that is true but seems so improbable (but disastrous and weird at the same time) that people skip over the truth of it. Impeaching Biden would simply put Kamala Harris in power.
Impeachment means nothing as it is just filing a charge by the prosecution (simple House majority), you need Senate conviction (2/3 majority in the senate) to replace someone. Obviously it would be Kamala replacing JR for the last 2 weeks. So - who cares?
The impeachment would have to result in a conviction. That would take more than two weeks. Biden would still be President, not Kamala. I think filing articles of impeachment is warranted in this case and should be done if only to send a message which is probably all it would do. Biden will go down as one of the worst presidents in US history.
I think US needs to amend constitution so that even Impeachment by the House of Representatives needs a 2/3 majority. Otherwise a president will be at risk of impeachment every time the majority in the House flips in mid-terms.
It is hard to see what Russia would gain from a cessation of hostilities and a 'negotiated settlement'. The purpose of the SMO was the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, at this time, the AFU is still resisting (with the help of NATO) and the Bamderites remain in power. To coin a phrase, the only way this conflict can be resolved is via the unequivocal defeat of one of the combatants on the battlefield. Any negotiations which take place will ALWAYS be predicated upon a temporary ceasefire which will allow Ukraine to re-arm and start the conflict again in 5-10 years whilst 'frozen Russian assets' are used to bolster the Bamderites via reconstruction.
I think a lot can be gained with the right deal. The lack of a deal would mean an interminable and costly conflict.
True. I believe the Russian wish to see this conflict done with.
Not costly for Russia. Russia have doubled the surplus on international investment position during the war, around 500 billion dollars in 2,5 years.
In practice that means, that Russia doesn't have to export a lot of oil in order to have a surplus on the current account.
There is no one the Russians can negotiate with. Furthermore, before Trump makes a deal, he has to remove all the people in government who will sabotage his efforts.
Will be difficult to achieve. Moreover, Trump is interested in moving European industry to the US and that is more likely to happen if the conflict is left unresolved. At the moment, there are now three incentives for such an industry move:
(1) cheap energy,
(2) the coming across the board US tariffs on imports and,
(3) less value for localating production in Europe since the goods can not be moved eastward.
Ukraine has lost too many trained soldiers of all ranks to be able to fight effectively and mount a credible defense. The.steady increase of territory conquered by Russia and the increasing rate of casualties inflicted on the Ukrainian forces both indicate the Ukrainian army is now being overwhelmed. If Zelensky wants to preserve any future economic viability, he will sue for peace immediately, before the Russians seize the Black Sea port city of Odessa. There will not be a deal, except the one Putin and Lavrov have outlined over the past three years: Ukraine shall be neutral going forward; Ukraine shall be disarmed, maintaining only a force necessary to keep domestic security; and the heirs of Stefan Banderas will be purged from both army and governmental ranks. Ukraine will be striped of the four oblasts Russia has absorbed. If this sounds as if Russia will dictate terms, you would be correct. You get to do that when you crush your foe on the battlefield. Let’s stop kidding ourselves. We lost all leverage on the battlefield. We will not be able resurrect lost leverage at the conference table.
This is a good report from Mr. Bryen.
Thanks again for the clarity Stephen.
Comments are pretty good, as by now, what Russia needs to do is pretty clear.
Time running out for Mr Biden?
President Trump's best move would be to direct Zelensky to order an immediate cease fire and to commence negotiations with Russia -- and then, when Zelensky of course refuses, to order an immediate end to all US financial, military, and informational support for the Ukraine. "Joe Biden" walked away from Afghanistan; why shouldn't President Trump walk away from the Ukraine?
Let's not lose sight of the approaching major decision point. When Russia has driven Zelensky's forces out of the 4 oblasts which have joined Russia, the territorial objectives of the Special Military Operation will have been achieved ... but the more important objectives of demilitarization, denazification, and rolling back NATO expansion/aggression will not have been achieved. What will Russia do then?
Stephen, what do you know about the new electronic jamming of drones in the mis-guided little Ukrainian adventure in Kursk?
It seems to have been deployed there (only) for the first time, forcing Russia in turn to (successfully) use new wire-guided drones.
But how widely can AFU deploy the new technology, and how fast can Russia roll out their wired response?
(It seems the jamming as a new NATO secret weapon may in fact have been the 'point' of the desperate move, but that the Russians were somehow ready for it?)
I don't have a good answer but Ukraine's forward operators are putting jammers on almost all their vehicles, or at least they say so. How good they are is an entirely different matter. You are right that the Russians are using fiber-optic guided drones and smart bomb kits that cannot easily be jammed.
I read that the fiber-optic spool cassettes come from China, and get the impression this is a new phase of drone warfare, even though wire-giided anti-tank rockets were introduced by the British in WW2 after the Germans managed to jam RF guidance.
It is not surprising that Trump's team has not shown their cards to anyone yet. Feelers to help understand your adversary are necessary to establish a negotiation plan. At least all sides have begun to signal a peaceful solution is possible. Biden's refusal to engage with Russia in any meaningful way has done nothing to enhance Ukraine's position in this war. Incompetence , ignorance and petulance describe Biden's administration. The world will soon see what real leadership is once Trump is in office.
It will be interesting to see how Trump's foreign policy - if 'policy' is the right word - unfolds.
He has no ideology or principles except desperately wanting to appear to win the game, get an 'unbelievable' deal.
And as has become quickly clear, he'll feel in a second term largely free of earlier constraints from his crazy 'base' when it suits him.
If this, in combination with more experience (though he's not a great learner) and maybe some smarter people around him than the first time round, produces in practice something more like pragmatic 'realism' than Biden's braindead neoconservatism, I may risk a sigh of relief.
But I don't expect everything to settle into anything like rational, principled policy over the next four years.
...especially after watching today's press conference 🤯
It seems that the Kiev Regime's only military operations are photo ops based on propaganda rather than military necessity. Take the latest Ukrainian attack in the Kursk Salient (still can't believe I am talking of the Kursk Salient in the present tense rather than the 1943 one). A minor company battle group attack - one of many that happen on both sides of the front every day has been elevated to the status as though it was the major strategic attack on Moscow by the Western Media.
But it does serve a purpose of encouraging the West that Ukraine is winning, that there is good news - so at the Ramstein meeting Zelensky can say "keep supporting us with all that money and weapons - we are winning". In the meantime, the Russian advances all along the line from the Kupiansk to the Donetz are ignored, and that is where the real war will be won.
The Kursk Salient is a military dead end, and was a dead end when the offensive started, which the Ukrainian Command keeps insisting on reinforcing, even as the Donetz Front is screaming out for more men and equipment. Yet now so great is the concentration of Russian troops in this direction that any withdrawal is likely to see the Russians follow up and cross into the Ukraine creating another front that will continue to suck Ukrainians into its maul.
The only side who can finish this is Russia as it has the troops on the ground, and Trump if he wants to concentrate on other priorities and close this down, he will have to exceed to Russian demands. The question is: Will Trump want to agree to these demands, and will the US Administration let him accept them (remember the discussions with Little Rocket Man in Trump 1.0)? Otherwise, the Russians will just keep advancing until they get what they want. Then the question will be: How much of Ukraine will be left and who will pick up the pieces?
It is clear to any rational observer that zelensky is mentally unstable with no regard for his unfortunate countrymen. Giving weapons to such a person in his situation, is like giving drugs to a drug addict with a death wish. Mind you Biden and the eurotrash are probably supplying him those as well.
Why isn’t Biden being impeached? The American people have spoken. We do not want this war.
Because nobody cares what the people want.
Because his replacement is worse.
A point that is true but seems so improbable (but disastrous and weird at the same time) that people skip over the truth of it. Impeaching Biden would simply put Kamala Harris in power.
Impeachment means nothing as it is just filing a charge by the prosecution (simple House majority), you need Senate conviction (2/3 majority in the senate) to replace someone. Obviously it would be Kamala replacing JR for the last 2 weeks. So - who cares?
The impeachment would have to result in a conviction. That would take more than two weeks. Biden would still be President, not Kamala. I think filing articles of impeachment is warranted in this case and should be done if only to send a message which is probably all it would do. Biden will go down as one of the worst presidents in US history.
I think US needs to amend constitution so that even Impeachment by the House of Representatives needs a 2/3 majority. Otherwise a president will be at risk of impeachment every time the majority in the House flips in mid-terms.