A Renewed Ukrainian Kursk Offensive Flops as Talk of Negotiations Swirl
A so-called Ramstein Format Meeting will take place in Germany on January 9th. The meeting format addresses Ukraine's defense needs. Ukrainian President Zelensky will attend and the US side will be headed by outgoing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
In three weeks time Donald Trump will be the US president. It isn't clear if the Ramstein meeting is designed to undermine Trump and his administration, but it's a good bet that Austin and Zelensky hope to put in place decisions that will be hard for Trump to reverse. This is not surprising as the outgoing Biden administration is running a sabotage operation across the board, trying to hobble Trump before he gets into the White House. Thus the administration has dumped new billions into Ukraine, both for weapons and cash for the government, and it is likely even more risky decisions may emerge from Ramstein.
There are no reports that any representatives of the Trump camp were invited to audit the Ramstein meeting, and it is unlikely they would want to attend.
Zelensky has been getting ready for Ramstein by throwing his reserve into Kursk in an effort to hold onto the territory Ukraine grabbed starting last year on August 4th. The most recent attacks launched by Ukraine failed, although the Russians say they are expecting at least one more big effort ahead of the Ramstein meeting.
According to the Russians, between January 5th and 6th, the Ukrainians tried 10 separate counterattacks and suffered heavy losses. The Russians report around 480 Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded in Kursk. No numbers have been released on Russian losses. Meanwhile reports from the field suggest the Russians are reversing earlier territorial losses in Kursk and pushing Ukraine's forces back.
Meanwhile the Russians have taken over the town of Kurakhovo in Donetsk. The Russians say the Ukrainians committed 15,000 troops there, made up of "elite units, nationalist formations and foreign mercenaries." While the Russian defense ministry has not released any numbers, Russian mil-bloggers are saying that as many as 12,000 Ukrainians were killed or wounded and around 40 Ukrainian tanks destroyed. Kurakhovo was an important logistical hub for the Ukrainian army operating in Donetsk.
Separately Russian forces continue pushing toward Pokrovsk which hosts a critical railway junction that supplies ammunition for Ukraine's eastern front. At the same time, the battle for Chasiv Yar is nearing an end as the Russians control almost the entire city and the fighting is in an industrial area. Numerous stories have been put out by the Ukrainian side claiming they have turned around the Russian offensive, but there is no confirmation for the claims so far.
Ukraine also attacked the Zaphorize Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) with eight fixed wing drones. All were intercepted, but parts of one drone crashed into the roof of the ZNPP Training Center. Ukraine's fixed wing drones are larger and carry more explosives than quadcopters. The Russians report no serious damage to the ZNPP and no radiation leaks. However, Ukrainian attempts to damage or destroy nuclear power plants is difficult to explain, since the likely victims of a damaged nuclear power plant are Ukrainians. Speculation says that Ukraine wants to create a provocation or incident that draws in NATO to come to Ukraine's defense. If true, this is a remarkably cynical and dangerous move and unlikely to lead to any outcome desired by Ukraine.
There are plenty of mixed signals about negotiations trying to settle the war in Ukraine. Russia's UN Ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya said that the Trump administration proposed "nothing of interest" to the Russian side. Nebenzya spoke to Rossiya-1 TV channel on January 3rd, which confirmed the December 26 meeting at Dulles Airport exclusively reported on Weapons and Strategy. Nebenzya went on to comment that the Trump proposals were "unformed, vague signals."
The Trump team has been staying quiet about their future plans for negotiations, suggesting that the Dulles "channel" was not the only contact in play regarding Ukraine. There are at least three more: China (where Trump has signaled that he and Chinese President Xi "have been talking" through aides), Macron and France where Trump visited on December 7th and where Macron now says that Ukraine needs to take a "more realistic stand" on territorial issues (as reported by Reuters), Germany and Hungary where both leaders (Scholtz and Orbán) have been talking with Russian President Vladimir Putin. None of these initiatives has anything to do with Biden, as Biden and his team have rejected any talks with Russia or any deal on Ukraine.
The Russian military momentum is gaining speed after a very slow period, and the various gambits of the Zelensky regime, no doubt with Washington's full backing, remain unsuccessful, unconvincing and costly. Any deal will come, if one does, after Trump is sworn in.
It is hard to see what Russia would gain from a cessation of hostilities and a 'negotiated settlement'. The purpose of the SMO was the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, at this time, the AFU is still resisting (with the help of NATO) and the Bamderites remain in power. To coin a phrase, the only way this conflict can be resolved is via the unequivocal defeat of one of the combatants on the battlefield. Any negotiations which take place will ALWAYS be predicated upon a temporary ceasefire which will allow Ukraine to re-arm and start the conflict again in 5-10 years whilst 'frozen Russian assets' are used to bolster the Bamderites via reconstruction.
Ukraine has lost too many trained soldiers of all ranks to be able to fight effectively and mount a credible defense. The.steady increase of territory conquered by Russia and the increasing rate of casualties inflicted on the Ukrainian forces both indicate the Ukrainian army is now being overwhelmed. If Zelensky wants to preserve any future economic viability, he will sue for peace immediately, before the Russians seize the Black Sea port city of Odessa. There will not be a deal, except the one Putin and Lavrov have outlined over the past three years: Ukraine shall be neutral going forward; Ukraine shall be disarmed, maintaining only a force necessary to keep domestic security; and the heirs of Stefan Banderas will be purged from both army and governmental ranks. Ukraine will be striped of the four oblasts Russia has absorbed. If this sounds as if Russia will dictate terms, you would be correct. You get to do that when you crush your foe on the battlefield. Let’s stop kidding ourselves. We lost all leverage on the battlefield. We will not be able resurrect lost leverage at the conference table.