A SPECIAL RUSSIAN FLIGHT TO WASHINGTON

Have Negotiations Started?

A Special Flight Squadron Il-96 departed Moscow at 0919 in the morning, went on to St. Petersburg where it landed at 1016. At 1215 it departed St. Petersburg for New York, an 11 hour 52 minute flight, arriving at 12:10 AM, December 26. It would leave New York at 0834 and arrive in Washington at 0927 after a 53 minute flight. It would remain in Washington until later that afternoon, departing Dulles Airport at 16:49 (4:49 PM).

According to the official Russian spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, the flight was arranged for "another rotation of diplomats."

If the flight actually brought high level official interlocutors to Washington for meetings, the meetings could have lasted no more than a few hours. It is about a 50 minute trip from Dulles to downtown DC, but the meetings could have been held at the airport, shutting out possible press coverage. If this scenario turns out to be true, there would have been four hours for meetings, including lunch.

It is entirely speculative what took place, if anything. But there have been comments by both sides indicating that preparations are probably underway for an early Trump-Putin meeting. Different locations for such a meeting have been proposed, but it is certain that any location would need to offer both leaders very high levels of security. This leaves traditional choices such as Geneva, and others including Doha, Qatar and Abu Dhabi in the UAE. Putin was received with much fanfare in Abu Dhabi in December, 2023 and the Russians have cultivated ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Qatar, on the other hand hosts the US Air Force at al-Udeid and the forward headquarters of CENTCOM. This could rule out Qatar for security reasons as perceived by the Russian side.

The IL-96 sent by Moscow to Washington is run by the Russian Special Flight Squadron, also known as the 235th Separate Aviation Detachment. This Detachment was set up in 1956, largely emulating the United States, using specially modified commercial aircraft to transport senior Russian officials, including Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The Detachment operates 13 IL-96 long-range aircraft and 5 Tu-214s and is normally based at Vnukovo airport southwest of Moscow. The Tu-214 is a twin-engine mid range aircraft.

The IL-96 model used by Putin is designated as the Il-96-300PU. It is the primary Presidential aircraft of the Russian fleet. The jet features four engines and a wide bodied design. The interior is specially modified for VIP use.

There is a wide gap in understanding between Washington and Moscow on settling the Ukraine war. It is unlikely any meeting could be held unless the gap is narrowed beforehand. The gap includes the long term presence of NATO in Ukraine, territorial issues, demilitarization, treatment of Russian speakers in Ukraine, the status of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, and the use of ports and airfields for exports of grain, pipeline transits to Europe, territorial boundaries, and the framework of future relations between Ukraine and Russia, including also Ukraine's relationship to the European Community. Also involved are US and European sanctions on Russia, and sundry security issues involving NATO and Russia.

One would expect a deal to include steps by all sides to lessen the conflict parameters. This could include a deal where Russia stops bombing the Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the Ukrainians stop attacking Russian territory (and might also include a demand to remove Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region). Such measures would be confidence building between the principals. Whether Washington could actually control Ukraine is an open question.

Washington needs to stabilize western Europe where economies are close to free fall, and where the Germans are closing auto factories. The crucial issue is affordable energy, especially natural gas. Part of the three-quarters destroyed Nord Stream pipeline could be put back in service if the US wants to move quickly to reduce pressure on Germany. Similarly, transit of gas through Ukraine needs to be restored. Trump could cut a deal using restoration of some of these services and removing some sanctions as a confidence building measure with Putin.

There are plenty of possible cards on the table if the players are at all ready for a deal. The Russians are very close to taking Chasiv Yar and not far from Pokrovsk, a key transit hub. It looks now that Russia will push hard to strategically defeat the Ukrainians in both towns, probably within a few weeks at most. This would hand Putin a key negotiating advantage and encourage Donald Trump to try and move fast to bring the war to an end before the Zelensky government finally crumbles.