Most of our stuff that we sent to Ukraine in the last 4 years hasn't worked that great (the list is long). Why do I have a bad feeling about this latest wunderwaffe.
Assessment of what can be made in the USA or allied countries? Which weapon systems require materials from China-dominated industries such as rare earth magnets, mature-node chips, wideband-gap semiconductors, nitrocellulose fiber, etc?
I think people are working on AI-enabled software-linked protective drone swarms of various types?
And what about extending the idea of protective vehicle cages to something like AI-controlled drone-swarm-deployed nets or 'net-tents' (maybe also coated with multi-spectral camouflage material), with for example only a few tethered heavier drones, powered from the ground, maintaining the 'cover' after deployment to defend various transient assets and positions (of course these would have to operate under the net).
I think nets have already been used to protect more fixed positions like drone-command posts.
Thanks Stephen. Do you think the procurement process can adapt to meet the technical catch-up challenges? The horse has its place, remember 2001 ODA 595 team
I remember them riding horses in Afghanistan. On procurement: who knows. The usual problem is the project managers pile on requirements and what comes out at the end of the pipe after a long time is very expensive and not fit for service.
Interesting that you didn't have much to say about kinetic hard-kill systems. I'm curious, were you unimpressed by the options at AUSA, do you not believe in the concept, or something like that?
It's so weird how directed energy weapons and free energy/cold fusion are both denied by the mainstream media (and villified, see reactions to that tweet of MTG'S about space lasers) AND yet also publicly visible as fact. You can cite the companies that use free energy technology, you can watch videos on Facebook of it being used for crowd control, but many people think you're a conspiracy theorist if you say the words, "directed energy weapon". Thank you for including it in this report.
Major countries are finding it very difficult to counter enemy drones on the front line. However, it has never been easier to decapitate the enemy using hypersonic missiles (for those countries which have working models). The better drones become, the greater the risk of an enemy deciding to create a smoking hole where the Houses of Parliament or NATO HQ once stood rather than lose soldiers struggling on the front lines. The solution may be to avoid creating enemies by being unnecessarily aggressive.
Drones are a lot cheaper than Javelins and can cover a lot more area. So in time the answer is yes. MANPADS are a different matter, as they are still effective against fixed wing aircraft and helicopters, while drones are less useful.
Most of our stuff that we sent to Ukraine in the last 4 years hasn't worked that great (the list is long). Why do I have a bad feeling about this latest wunderwaffe.
Assessment of what can be made in the USA or allied countries? Which weapon systems require materials from China-dominated industries such as rare earth magnets, mature-node chips, wideband-gap semiconductors, nitrocellulose fiber, etc?
so long as there are batteries most of them depend on Chinese parts
I think people are working on AI-enabled software-linked protective drone swarms of various types?
And what about extending the idea of protective vehicle cages to something like AI-controlled drone-swarm-deployed nets or 'net-tents' (maybe also coated with multi-spectral camouflage material), with for example only a few tethered heavier drones, powered from the ground, maintaining the 'cover' after deployment to defend various transient assets and positions (of course these would have to operate under the net).
I think nets have already been used to protect more fixed positions like drone-command posts.
"If the US Army was fighting in Ukraine today, it would not have a full capability to deal with drone threats."
Sure wouldn't. I can picture the smoldering M1A2s already. "But . . but . . that tank cost us $20 million!!"
Thanks Stephen. Do you think the procurement process can adapt to meet the technical catch-up challenges? The horse has its place, remember 2001 ODA 595 team
I remember them riding horses in Afghanistan. On procurement: who knows. The usual problem is the project managers pile on requirements and what comes out at the end of the pipe after a long time is very expensive and not fit for service.
nice presentation and analysis
All these magical laser weapons need a HUGE power source. Lasers lose strength quickly over distance. How will that solve that ?
Interesting that you didn't have much to say about kinetic hard-kill systems. I'm curious, were you unimpressed by the options at AUSA, do you not believe in the concept, or something like that?
It's so weird how directed energy weapons and free energy/cold fusion are both denied by the mainstream media (and villified, see reactions to that tweet of MTG'S about space lasers) AND yet also publicly visible as fact. You can cite the companies that use free energy technology, you can watch videos on Facebook of it being used for crowd control, but many people think you're a conspiracy theorist if you say the words, "directed energy weapon". Thank you for including it in this report.
Major countries are finding it very difficult to counter enemy drones on the front line. However, it has never been easier to decapitate the enemy using hypersonic missiles (for those countries which have working models). The better drones become, the greater the risk of an enemy deciding to create a smoking hole where the Houses of Parliament or NATO HQ once stood rather than lose soldiers struggling on the front lines. The solution may be to avoid creating enemies by being unnecessarily aggressive.
Next round of weapon platforms to make their respective boardmembers rich, and not much else.
Cynic
Realist.
Good write up.
What about Javelins and MANPADS?
Javelins are to destroy tanks. Manpads are far too expensive to use for counter-drone.
I didn't ask it right.
Are drones replacing Javelins and/or MANPADS?
Drones are a lot cheaper than Javelins and can cover a lot more area. So in time the answer is yes. MANPADS are a different matter, as they are still effective against fixed wing aircraft and helicopters, while drones are less useful.