Bakhmut Update 4/14/23

Ukraine's forces split and squeezed in the city

The Ukrainian forces inside Bakhmut have been pushed to the western half of the city, and split, with one group holding on by their fingerprints in the north and another trapped in the south.  The Russians now say that Ukrainian forces have been reduced to perhaps as few as 6,000 soldiers.

22-year-old American volunteer soldier Edward Wilton has been killed in battle against the Russian Army in Bakhmut.

Another report says that the Ukrainians managed to reinforce the southern sector, throwing in the 120th Territorial Brigade and the 114th Brigade.  A fully staffed brigade can be between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers, but most of these brigades are undermanned and many soldiers lack anything more than rudimentary training.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646839642526822401

If these additional brigades got into Bakhmut, it isn't clear how.  There are reserve Ukrainian brigades around Chasiv Yar, but most of the roadways have been heavily shelled. It is possible that these soldiers simply walked across fields, mainly at night, evading Russian surveillance.  

Ukrainian units in Bakhmut are said to be getting low on ammunition and medical supplies.  As Ukrainian forces pulled back they started blowing up high rise apartment buildings and also putting mines on roadways, apparently in an effort to make a Russian advance difficult.

There are about 30,000 Ukrainian troops outside of the city in the suburbs of Khromov, Krasnoye, Stupochki, Bogdanovka, and Minkovka, but they are under continued pressure from the Russians and probably can't be of any help in relief of the city.

On the whole the weather is still rainy and overcast most of the time (the first sunny day is expected on 16 April).  Secondary roads are hard going to traverse because of mud, and craters caused by artillery strikes. No main road is safe.

Ukrainian forces in the city have been told to hold their positions and stand and fight.  At least one territorial brigade in the North defied orders and pulled back to the western part of the city, which is mainly a residential low rise area.

Yevgeny Prigohzin, head of PMC Wagner, describes Ukrainian losses as horrendous.  He says between the battles of Soledar and Bakhmut, Ukraine has lost 32,000 soldiers.  There is no way to verify his claims, but even the Pentagon now says Ukraine has taken a real beating in the war.  The Pentagon says that the ratio is something like 7 Ukrainians to 1 Russian either killed or wounded overall.  Some commentators think the ratio is closer to 10 to 1.

Ukraine's intention is to hold Bakhmut as long as possible, hoping that a real counteroffensive can be launched when conditions improve.  This probably means that Ukraine's Bakhmut forces need to survive until mid-May at the earliest.  It would take a near miracle for Ukraine's Bakhmut forces to hold on that long.  Furthermore the likelihood of an effective counter offensive by the Ukrainian army is open to question, given Russian air superiority and effective artillery strikes.

Meanwhile it is reported that Ukraine is organizing a major offensive in the south stretching from the Kherson area to Mykolaiv, with the Mykolaiv port being the main objective.  Presumably this would give Ukraine access to the Black Sea, but it would require pushing the Russians far back to be successful. 

If the Russians are bold and run their own offensive on the backs of Ukraine's planned attacks toward Kherson and Mykolaiv, the entire Ukrainian battle line could be turned.  This might bring an end to the war.