The battle inside Bakhmut has intensified with Wagner forces attacking from the south, east, north east, north central and north west. On the night of April 1st, in the middle of a heavy snowstorm, Wagner forces launched a strong attack mainly aimed at the city center. Because of the weather conditions, the Ukrainians were unable to launch a counter-attack from outside Bakhmut and had difficulty operating drones to give them a good sense of the movement of Wagner units.
The Wagner forces are trying to split Ukraine’s forces inside the city and they appear getting closer to that goal.
It appears, at least for the time being, that Ukraine will not be able to relieve the city, even with new tanks and newly gathered ground forces.
The hardest battle is around an area called Freedom Square, which is psychologically important to Ukraine. There are reports of very heavy and close-in fighting in this sector. However, if the bad weather continues, it gives an advantage to Wagner because the Ukrainians will have supply problems and feel increasingly isolated.
The Russian strategy is to take control over a rail line that runs roughly north to south in the center of the city. If the Russians are successful, the Ukrainian troops in the city center (or at least those remaining), will be forced either to retreat or surrender. While it is by no means certain the Russians will be successful in this undertaking, the Russians outnumber Ukrainian forces and don’t face resupply difficulty. The Ukrainian army had tried a wide, encircling operation to cut Russian supply lines, but so far that attempt has not been successful. Ukraine tried a strong probe down highway E-4, but it was forced to withdraw under withering Russian artillery strikes.
It looks increasingly as if the Russians are anxious to clear Bakhmut before the Ukrainians can launch any counterattack. If they can do so, then Ukraine has to attack mostly over flat lands where they will be heavily exposed.
Zelensky has staked his leadership on defending Bakhmut, something that many Western sources think is foolish because he can’t win that battle. There has been resistance inside the top ranks on the Ukrainian army to being trapped in this cauldron, as the Russians call it.
Zelensky’s best hope is to try and hold the city until the weather clears and there is enough drying in the fields to allow Zelensky to use his new armor against Russia’s forces. In a sense, the Battle of Bakhmut is now a race against time for the Russians as the Ukrainians try to slug it out inside the city, but steadily losing ground.
There are various estimates on how many Ukrainians are inside Bakhmut, but it is reasonable to think it is somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000. However, it isn’t clear what shape these forces are in, how many have been killed or wounded, or what level of war stocks they have on hand. There have been reports that there was a tunnel from the center of the city all the way to Chasiv Yar, and that this was the life line for Ukrainian fighters inside the city. Other reports say that the tunnel is of some use, but that its dimensions are not enough to move supplies easily across a considerable distance, In any case, it is likely the Russians will destroy it as they move closer to key installations in the city center.
At least some of the fighters on the Ukrainian side are foreigners, just as some of the Wagner forces come from Chechnya and Syria. Last week, the 29-year-old French volunteer soldier Kevin David became the 5th French volunteer soldier to have been killed in Ukraine, but it isn’t clear if he died in Bakhmut.
While the regular Russian army has provided shielding support for the Wagner forces, most of the regular Russian infantry has not been engaged in this battle. There were reports that Wagner was shifting its forces to Avdiivka, where there also is heavy fighting. But these reports may have been deliberate disinformation.
APRIL 3 UPDATE
Wagner forces have taken Bakhmut city’s administration center buildings and have also taken Freedom Square.
There is no word yet on whether the Wagner forces have found the underground tunnels running into Bakhmut from Chasiv Yar.
The head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin says that “Legally speaking, Bakhmut is taken. The enemy is concentrated in the western districts…”
The Zelensky government has rejected Russia’s claims. As noted earlier, once the Wagner group consolidates its gains, it will likely move west toward the railroad track line, forcing the Ukrainians back into defending the largely residential western part of the city. Wagner Group now holds around 70 to 75% of Bakhmut.
Finally, a front-line report that isn't propaganda.