Thanks for landing a blow for REALITY, so that (eventually) the American people will not let the politicians take the risk of acting invulnerable despite being quite vulnerable.
Given ICBMs and short range hypersonic missiles, the Russians have all ranges covered and have the top air defense systems to protect their own people and their assets.
This is an enviable position for any Govt. that takes what should be their main goal, deterrence from military attack, seriously.
Ignoring the abilities of Russia leave them no alternative other than demonstrating it increasingly obviously... making it increasing likely that any and all of NATO will suffer needlessly and look even worse for not heeding repeated warnings.
It would be great if those responsible for decision-making in the United States and beyond would "turn off the sheep" and listen to the opinions of experienced veterans. One gets the impression that Stephen Bryan is more concerned about the security of the United States than Sullivan or Blinken?! I bet that in six months-a year-the bookshelves will be littered with their "memoirs" describing their "fruitful mission."..
I don't have a good answer for you as I do not know the design of the warheads and there is no available information to help. According to Mr. Putin, the warheads reach a temperature of 4,000 degrees (presumably centigrade). They are also traveling at Mach 10.
Re: Bringing the conflict to an end -- US/NATO have a lot to offer in theory, but are not trustworthy enough that their promises can be believed. It's really that bad. US government has burned the country's reputation to ashes. And in the past year, they nuked the ashes too.
The foundations for negotiation now have to be rebuilt from the ground up. They'll have to retire the entire generation of leaders in State Dept and "Deep State" in whatever form it exists in, replace them, make relatively minor agreements, and then wait 5-10 years and see if those agreements still hold up. The Ukraine war will be over long before that, the demographics can take the current rate of attrition for another year or two.
Whatever will happen in Ukraine is going to be done on a zero-trust basis, which eliminates the more mutually beneficial types of agreements. The most likely outcome is still Ukraine exhausting their able bodied male population. US is almost certain to respond in frustrated anger, along the lines we are seeing now in Georgia and Syria. But the ability to pull off these moves is fading. It will only make things worse.
Lastly but importantly - the idea of a Trump admin "focusing on China" isn't going to happen because it's too late and too obvious that it's too late. That ship has sailed. They'll do what the EU did with cars, announce some kind of trade move, and then when the retaliation comes they'll back off and come to some kind of equilibrium, with some token trade control in place to save face. SE Asia for the most part already played the game Ukraine is playing today, I don't think US will be successful recreating those conditions. This includes Philippines - their US connected industries set to get slammed by AI. By the time Trump's term runs out, PRC will be global leader in chips, dominant navy in Pacific (not just 1st Island chain), and Taiwan won't matter as much.
Does anyone one have knowledge/guesses on the type of engine/launch method powering the Russian hypersonic missile (scram jet, ram accelerator, reverse-engineered extraterrestrial technology, something else)?
I think the starting points to ending the SMO are the Turkish Proposal from Mar-Apr 2022 and the NATO communication from Dec 2021. Further, the goals of the SMO need to be addressed, to Russia's satisfaction. The "West," hasn't a leg to stand on, and can only listen.
Thanks for landing a blow for REALITY, so that (eventually) the American people will not let the politicians take the risk of acting invulnerable despite being quite vulnerable.
Given ICBMs and short range hypersonic missiles, the Russians have all ranges covered and have the top air defense systems to protect their own people and their assets.
This is an enviable position for any Govt. that takes what should be their main goal, deterrence from military attack, seriously.
Ignoring the abilities of Russia leave them no alternative other than demonstrating it increasingly obviously... making it increasing likely that any and all of NATO will suffer needlessly and look even worse for not heeding repeated warnings.
Rouble powered
It would be great if those responsible for decision-making in the United States and beyond would "turn off the sheep" and listen to the opinions of experienced veterans. One gets the impression that Stephen Bryan is more concerned about the security of the United States than Sullivan or Blinken?! I bet that in six months-a year-the bookshelves will be littered with their "memoirs" describing their "fruitful mission."..
Great interview. Loved the part about how we need to reassess NATO. Thanks again.
Stephen, can you clarify the new thermal challenges for any explosive Oreshnik payload?
Might the very high temperatures generated by friction at Mach 20 explain why the missile was not armed?
I don't have a good answer for you as I do not know the design of the warheads and there is no available information to help. According to Mr. Putin, the warheads reach a temperature of 4,000 degrees (presumably centigrade). They are also traveling at Mach 10.
It's claimed they reach Mach 20 in flight, but are slowed by friction to about half that on impact.
Carnegie Endowment says no big deal.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/11/russia-oreshnik-nuclear-blackmail?lang=en
Re: Bringing the conflict to an end -- US/NATO have a lot to offer in theory, but are not trustworthy enough that their promises can be believed. It's really that bad. US government has burned the country's reputation to ashes. And in the past year, they nuked the ashes too.
The foundations for negotiation now have to be rebuilt from the ground up. They'll have to retire the entire generation of leaders in State Dept and "Deep State" in whatever form it exists in, replace them, make relatively minor agreements, and then wait 5-10 years and see if those agreements still hold up. The Ukraine war will be over long before that, the demographics can take the current rate of attrition for another year or two.
Whatever will happen in Ukraine is going to be done on a zero-trust basis, which eliminates the more mutually beneficial types of agreements. The most likely outcome is still Ukraine exhausting their able bodied male population. US is almost certain to respond in frustrated anger, along the lines we are seeing now in Georgia and Syria. But the ability to pull off these moves is fading. It will only make things worse.
Lastly but importantly - the idea of a Trump admin "focusing on China" isn't going to happen because it's too late and too obvious that it's too late. That ship has sailed. They'll do what the EU did with cars, announce some kind of trade move, and then when the retaliation comes they'll back off and come to some kind of equilibrium, with some token trade control in place to save face. SE Asia for the most part already played the game Ukraine is playing today, I don't think US will be successful recreating those conditions. This includes Philippines - their US connected industries set to get slammed by AI. By the time Trump's term runs out, PRC will be global leader in chips, dominant navy in Pacific (not just 1st Island chain), and Taiwan won't matter as much.
Informative interview.
Does anyone one have knowledge/guesses on the type of engine/launch method powering the Russian hypersonic missile (scram jet, ram accelerator, reverse-engineered extraterrestrial technology, something else)?
Here is some informed speculatin : https://forrestbishop.substack.com/p/back-engineering-oreshnik
(Great interview BTW Mr. Bryen!)
Solid interview, of which I am sharing widely.
I think the starting points to ending the SMO are the Turkish Proposal from Mar-Apr 2022 and the NATO communication from Dec 2021. Further, the goals of the SMO need to be addressed, to Russia's satisfaction. The "West," hasn't a leg to stand on, and can only listen.