Did Russia Attack Poland with Drones?
Russia has denied it used drones to attack Poland
Did Russia Attack Poland with Drones?
Poland says that 19 allegedly Russian drones entered its airspace. In an all night operation on September 9th, the Polish air force tried to track them down. According to the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, four of them were destroyed but the rest remain missing. Poland blamed Russia for the attack on their territory and declared that as a NATO member it invoked Article 4 of the NATO Charter, consulting with the other NATO members.
Is there sufficient evidence to support an Article 4 action? Article 4, like Article 5 requires NATO consensus, that is, support from all NATO members. Over the years, Article 4 has been invoked 7 times.
The jury is out whether the Polish case is strong in accusing Russia of violating Polish airspace.
There is no certainty on the types of drones used, but there is a photo of a drone (that does not look damaged) on the ground that looks like a Gerbera drone. The Gerbera is a cheap version of the Iranian Shahed 136, made out of plywood and polystyrene foam. The Gerbera can carry an explosive charge, but most are for networking purposes. It isn't known if the photo is one of those allegedly shot down. It also isn't known if there were other types of drones.
Belarus says that some drones from its territory, because of jamming by Ukraine, headed for Poland and that Belarus informed the Polish authorities.
The four drones likely were intercepted either by F-16s and F-35s or by Polish helicopters. However, the Polish government has not offered any clarity on the intercepts. Even so, it is fairly certain that no Polish air defense systems, such as the Patriot were used. This suggests that none of the drones were anywhere near sensitive military or government installations or significant transit hubs.
The Russians have denied that any of their drones were used in Poland, insisting that the drones they used against L’viv and other western Ukraine targets lacked the range to attack any meaningful Polish targets. Russians could launch drones against western Ukraine from Crimea and from Belarus. At least some of the reported drones over Poland came out of Belarus' airspace.
Especially unclear is why Russia would run any sort of attack on Poland, as doing so could provoke a NATO-led response that might lead to a wider conflict in the region. Or looked at another way, why would Russia send drones on a meaningless mission instead of going for the jugular and hitting supply depots, military bases and possibly Polish air defense systems?
Could Russian drones have been hijacked by Ukrainian hackers and sent over Poland to cause a provocation? Drones have been hijacked before, the most famous was in 2011 when Iran hijacked the US RQ-170 stealth drone and landed it at an Iranian airfield. Causing such an incident could possibly inflame NATO and lead to more weapons and money for Ukraine. It could also help convince the Poles to send troops to a multilateral security force, should one be formed. Until now, Poland has refused to participate in the security force proposed by French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer.
The short answer is we do not know and the Polish government has not provided enough information to be sure, if indeed Russia actually intentionally attacked Polish territory. Russian drones entering Polish airspace is not enough to demonstrate the drones were actually Russian owned or if Russian, under Russian control.
A few days ago Ursula von der Leyen claimed her plane's GPS was jammed by the Russians when she was travelling to Bulgaria. flight radar debunked this as a hoax, stating that GPS is often an issue in the area. One can come to the conclusion that Europe really wants to further escalate this conflict because Ukraine is losing the war. Ukraine moved well trained divisions/brigades into and around Pokrovsk who are being pounded by Russian gluide bombs. Apparently, Russia is dropping about 80 to 100 of these gluide bombs a day in this area, each weighting between 500 and 3000 pounds and we all know, eventually the city will fall, which is one of the last logistic hubs along the front line in Donbass. Time is running out before the Russians eventually will break through, so what's Europe going to do? Instead of acknowledging their defeat, they want to drag the US into this war. That's the only hope they have. On the other hand, Europe doesn't really have much to deliver. Logistics are poor and the stockpiles of weapons are diminished. Most importantly though, NATO doesn't know how to fight a modern war. If they knew they would have fought this war differently. Holding on to cities as long as one can, accepting heavy losses isn't smart, especially since territorial gains aren't the main objectives in Russia's approach.
Considering the dire econimcal and political situations Europe is in (a German economy that is in free fall, a political collapse in France), Europe has a keen interest to keep this war alive, so they can blame their own issues on Russia.
The only hope again, is to drag the US into this, or at least tightening economic screws on Russia with more and more sanctions, which needs to be done by the US. But then most analysts forget that Russia is paying for the war in Rubles because they produce their own weapons for the most part. Theoretically, Russia could print the money and continue the war. So, everything points towards an escalation instead of a peace agreements. Good luck with that, since Russia holds the escalation dominance. As a nuclear power they can react accordingly to each escalation on their end, because the Western leaders don't believe Russia would eventually attack NATO members directly or even use nuclear weapons. As Trenin argued, Russia should hold nuclear tests and make clear where this is heading. A failure to do so, only encourages irrarional and arrogant actions by the West, well until it's too late.
Likely a false flag by Ukraine. Likely will be many such as the end is near for them.