The bombers were in the open because the Russians were adhering to the New Start Treaty (signed in 2010 between Obama and the President Menadev) which states that strategic bombers are to be parked in the open for satellite confirmation by the other side. The same applies to the US side as well. Interesting that Ukraine claim using this same satellite information was used in their planning.
The Ukrainians claim that they informed the Americans, even as the Trump Administration claim they were not informed. Who to believe given the ability of both these actors to be very libveral with the truth?
The Treaty also states that these airbases are not to be attacked by the either side, AND THEIR ALLIES. Given that the US/NATO has been supporting Ukraine in this war - and are therefore beligerents, the Russians might conclude that the West is in breech of the treaty (given Ukrainian use of satellite information and perhaps other assistance). The upshot of this is that the Russians might tear up the treaty which governs mush more such as numbers and forms of nuclear warheads - something the Trump Administration will not want.
Furthermore, this attack, although spectacular, will have no effect on the battlefield where the Russians continue to be successful - and that is what counts the most. This also will likely harden Russian resolve, and may result in further Russian demands on Putin to continue the war by the Russian population, and thought through retailation. This is a tactical victory, not a strategic success for the Ukrainians, and they may live to regret it. This attack does nothing to win the war.
Strategic bombers do not have to be exposed on the tarmac in the open. While some strategic bombers may be parked in the open, this is not a requirement, and many are stored in hardened shelters or hangars for better protection. Nuclear arms treaties do not generally mandate that strategic bombers be parked openly for verification. The New START Treaty, for instance, focuses on limiting deployed warheads, delivery systems, and launchers, verifying compliance through on-site inspections, data exchanges, and national technical means like satellite imagery. While open parking facilitates satellite monitoring, it's not a requirement of the treaty itself.
Sorry Stephen, but to correct you - on site inspection by the US side ended in February 2023 stopped when Putin said that a participant belligerent against Russia with access to its nuclear facility would not be allowed. As a sop the Russians agreed to have their bombers out in the open for satellite inspection as allowed for in the treaty.
That fine but the treaty says nothing about planes being out in the open. Whatever the Russians do is beside the point. You quoted the treaty and then revised what it says.
There is an immediate answer: Our oligarchy is in the middle of a power struggle right now, and it is further divided by the different ways the different factions want to go vis-a-vis both Ukraine and Israel.
In this case, one side of our MIC wants to prolong the Ukraine War because profits, while the other is sane enough to know any war with Russia is Batshit Crazy. Big Oil profits from the anti-Russian sanctions by price-gouging Europeans, but doesn't want a war with Russia for the same reasons as the saner part of the MIC, and if they have to eventually give up their extorted LNG profits, well, they're Big Oil. They'll manage.
There's also the Batshit Crazy imperialists in the MIC and Spook World who want to impose American hegemony over the whole world and who are becoming increasingly desperate. My best guess is that Ukraine told some of them, and they probably did not inform Trump of the details of the strike, anyway, for one simple reason.
He might have said No. Better to ask for forgiveness later, you know.
Well, there are people who are winning real war, avoid civilian casualties and still keep the lights on in Ukraine and then there are people who target civilian infrastructure within Russia and some far away bases. Ukrainian going full ISIS by saying Russians civilians need to feel the war says it all. They are desperate.
If this operation took 18 months to plan as they claim there is no way that US / UK intelligence services were not in the loop. They are so deeply inserted in the Ukrainian command structure that they MUST have had prior awareness at a minimum (and most likely were consulted regarding best practices, updated intel, etc.). If those outfits did NOT tell their respective leaders of the operation in advance they are remiss. If this managed (somehow) to occur without their knowledge, they are again - remiss. My bet is that there was an information cutout such that the info did not reach the president / PM for their daily briefings.
Russia withdrew from START3 but did not abrogate the treaty. Leaving bombers visible was part of the original deal. It was flat out foolish of them to comply with a treaty they had withdrawn from.
So - - - how many hangers in Diego? None for B2's per the latest pics I've seen. And the B52's in Barksdale are sitting ready for an elephant walk. Drones are prevalent enough that a deniable attack by the "bad guys" (Russian, Norks, ChiComs, Cartels, fill in the blank) could be executed at a very reasonable cost/benefit rate.
There are red lines and there are red lines. Crippling one leg of the nuclear triad would most likely meet the stricter criteria. The Russians have been patient, chipping away at emptying the Western arsenals without serious brinksmanship. I'd anticipate a response to this exercise in about two weeks - time for them to make a very deliberate decision. I'd anticipate it wouldn't be purely military (or even military at all). Cutting off the supply of nuclear reactor fuel rods to the West, liaising with China to purchase all outbound shipments of a specific pharmaceutical formulation previously destined for the West, hacking the SWIFT system or eliminating the electrical supply in the Square Mile via flux compression generator. There are lots of options.
Putin is a methodical, disciplined thinker. The attack on his helicopter on the 20th of May by 46 drones together with this strike may push him to be less conservative. Please keep in mind that Putin is the least dangerous option of the other folks in queue behind him for succession.
I would say Ukraine could not tell US or anyone of plan to hit nuclear bombers. That would likely open up US/NATO to Russia charges of treaty violations and active engagement in the war on Russian soil. War front could expand tremendously then, and probably not in good way for Ukraine. Use of tactical nukes become real possibility if US/NATO is attacking Russia’s nuke infrastructure.
Good analysis. Although “incompetent internal security” - really? - I would rate the chances of China pulling off a similar or even copycat attack against the US as pretty good, staging across the Canadian or Mexican border.
We are at serious risk and do not have an integrated internal security system. Russia is supposed to be good at such things, but obviously they are not. I have warned already about the danger of a drone attack in the US, either launched locally, from sea, or from Cuba or Mexico, for example.
I wrote this on May 6 (substack): 'Golden Dome is an ambitious, if undefined, new program. But it does not include defense against other territorial threats, especially drone attacks that can be supported by non-state actors and hostile countries. As the war in Ukraine demonstrates, the Russians and Ukrainians can attack each other with long range drones. Ukraine hit Moscow, including Putin's Kremlin office, launching drones that flew 1,688 km to their target. Any US enemy can do the same, either from land (including drones launched inside the US) or from the sea.
The US has no comprehensive air defense system and is badly exposed to any enemy attack, including against sensitive government installations, nuclear power plants, reservoirs and dams, and the population itself. Imagine a drone crashing into the Super Bowl."
"Imagjne a drone crashing into the Super Bowl" Here, again, is the clumsy, semi-literate use of language..... 'crashing' implies an accidental impact, where you intend a targeted, deliberate, impact.... Americans struggle with literacy. Besides which, this Super Bowl suggestion is fantastic.... the Cathedral of the Damned. Very visual, huge eyeball numbers.... do it.
Is Mar a Lago within drone range of Cuba? Could have a Cuban drone crisis. This time instead of JFK, we have a brain dead realestate developer in the Whitehouse. Trump would rightly be very concerned about damage to his property, and the resulting rise in insurance costs no doubt. Would be a real shame if it was turned into Gaza.
Understand your desire to push a report out as quickly as possible however there are gross inaccuracies in your essay..
Firstly, only two bases were hit tho 4/5 were targeted. There is screeds of evidence confirming this, evidence lost in the house that followed the initial reporting, reporting based more on wishful thinking by a starved of any success Western Alliance, hardly surprising.
Secondly, civilians intervened in the attack stopping at least 3 trucks releasing their loads, two of which detonated predicate it is estimated onboard cameras that let those viewing their plan was up, when the doors were opened by civilians who in suspecting malfeasance decided fatefully for them their demise, however, by their actions they denied Ukrainexand undoubtedly their U.K/E.U cobelligerents the success they craved.
Thirdly, many drones attempting to hit these bases, in two cases were entirely shot down, those bases suffering no losses.
Fourthly, as we know it is for that corrupted drug addled Nazi perverts want, together that of the nations administration, this attack was as much for narrative spin as it was for inflicting kinetic loss. That is evidenced the statements following including cheered the Western media most of whom seem to be truly “getting off” reporting this, reality however it was no where the success they thought it would be… most craft hit were older Bombers in fact slated for discontinuance post this conflict, having been replaced the new bombers under construction as we read of this attack, four of the new iterations already delivered, in short the Airfields that suffered damage thankfully aside the early warning aircraft damaged had only the older craft on the aprons.
Just thought I’d correct a few inconsistencies in your essay, it’s important with events such as this we strive to report accurately more so given the MSM want to lie, obfuscate, tell blatant lies, all to boost ratings as much as to support the warmongers…
Enjoy your reports, essays, always something learned for which I truly congratulate you, the issues noted above are not major in the scheme of things but a tighter accuracy in these types of reports would definitely help..
I have not seen any reports of these drones being shot down. Five bases were attacked according to most press reports and mil-bloggers. Obviously the full details are not known and anyway is not central to my argument. Actually I don't think there is anything "inconsistent" in my argument which you totally ignore.
Not ignoring your argument, indeed the point made about the seriousness of this attack, more so aimed as it is and you correctly highlight as much if not more heavily the U.S Trump Administration as it was the target Russia, is right on the money, underscoring the fact these lunatics will it seems stop at nothing to perpetrate their need for escalation, fearful of both the ramifications of an actual formalised defeat and of the parlous financial position of the economies of those shouting loudest for escalation… not to mention the inherent risk of continuing to attack a nuclear superpower’s nuclear assets.. ( Advance Warning Radars and now the Delivery system) a reckless act indeed, I have no doubts though lack actual evidence, which in time I’m sure will manifest that U.K hands were all over this, hopefully the U.S were not involved although the U.S’s recent admissions as to being both fully appraised and aware of as well as green-lighting the despicable assassination program this Nazi regime has been conducting against military and civilian Russians is scant reason to truly take the U.S word about not being aware, just another reason to continue to mistrust anything that is said or undertaken by the U.S … most in the world understand this, little wonder the U.S is so despised… something truly regrettable but self inflicted..
Truly appreciate and enjoy every writing posted, you are gifted and obviously very intelligent traits that come through clearly in your work…
By “most press reports” you mean the Western MSM , and of course the accuracy, insight and diligence they display in reporting on Russia, is of course utterly beyond reproach.
I haven’t undertaken regular writing, most posts are comments on essays written from those I subscribe to.. many of which, unfortunately for those reading them, being 1-3 parts in length… 😢
My focus is geo politics (love U.S politics), economics, finance (Wall Street, Fiat monetary system, Precious Metals) and from my understanding of Modern history and especially being acutely aware of the nefarious acts and deeds undertaken by many so called elites, their self serving Think Tanks, the ubiquitous Foundations established together the Councils such as Atlantic, Council Foreign Relations, Chatham House all of which we know lobby and write legislation usurping and undermining the entire supposed democracy our political elites are oft want to bang on about, Rockefeller’s Club of Rome and the The Trilateral Commission he established, together his, Rockefeller’s efforts (successfully) to introduce and support Margaret Sanger, like Rockefeller another Eugenicist, she the proponent of Abortion in the U.S who established the policy that has seen some 60+ million black lives aborted, the efforts of Rockefeller to undermine the US Medicine and Healthcare and his stunningly successful efforts at gaining control of the U.N and its offshoot the WHO… the WHO success a crowning glory for avowed eugenicists, another topic I have widely covered was COVID and the deleterious impact of that entire orchestrated sham…
I also post on occasions faith based commentary as and when deemed appropriate.. especially when beliefs are exposed to posts that are derogatory, unwarranted, that malign said beliefs and are patently lacking in any established basis of fact, that are so far off base that a response is required.
I guess my activity on Substack limited as it is, is the result of having wide ranging interests… garnered from a love of reading and listening to others more learned than I, whose posts be they written, audio or audio visual actually educate… it’s all a learning experience for me and one I thoroughly enjoy..
Thank you for your comment and trust this at least helps you understand my lack of actual posts aside my replies written, I believe though anything posted can be obtained and is accessible if you are keen to read content…
Everyone is already discussing the negotiations in Istanbul, and you are talking about some kind of "shift of attention" to the last breath of a dying deer.
Well, if you take Trump or his predecessors seriously as real presidential leaders, and not puppets of a "permanent government," then in the eyes of the public he really looks stupid (like Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton). Zelensky looks even more stupid against this background, but he doesn't solve anything either. But Putin and his "permanent government" decide a lot.Who needs to be executed, who needs to be pardoned.The most important thing is when and where.
I am not sure what point you are trying to make, although Zelenskii is playing his role quite well, since is doing whatever it takes to harm Russia, since nobody cares about Ukraine or Ukrainians, not in Washington, not in Brussels, not in Kiev.
"Harming Russia" is an understatement. This is a long-standing policy of the United States, independent of presidents. But one thing is unclear - did the deindustrialized country want to solve all the "problems with Russia" at the expense of financial tentacles that entangled the whole Earth, completely without relying on its industrial capabilities? Despite the fact that the entire US economy is 90% dependent on external supplies by sea and does not have its own merchant fleet?! If this is the case, then they clearly have problems with experts in the field of global economics. Or the problems are even more serious than many Americans can imagine.
How? Launch a rocket at the Statue of Liberty or stop the flow of the Thames? Putin can't stop it in any way, because the opponents can't stop! Escalation is inevitable, but let it happen through no fault of our own.
"Putin can't stop it in any way, because the opponents can't stop!"
Wrong. Putin should never have allowed this war to go on for so long. He should have won a quick, decisive battle. But since he didn't, he should now see the folly of his ways and bring Ukraine to its knees.
Russia's task is not to launch another massive missile attack on Ukraine to harm Ukrainians, but to make Europe and the United States feel "uncomfortable." How? I don't know. Putin said he would definitely respond. It remains to trust him and wait.
It is a reasonable suspicion that this is not the first time the Zelensky regime has launched drones from inside Russia's borders. That would explain the improbably long flight paths over Russia reported for some earlier drone attacks. It might also be consistent with the "18 month" time frame reported by jubilant Kiev authorities.
If that speculation is correct, then the present attack may represent the Last Hurrah of that kind of long-distance drone attack. Now the cover has been blown, and it will be much more difficult to repeat in the future.
Of course, that speculation would also point to even more severe incompetence in Russia's security services who did not know what was going on under their noses for months. But we don't often see competence in the US or Europe, neither in their militaries nor in their civilian administrations. Why would Russia be any different?
The most practical response from Russia would be to huddle with their Chinese allies and work out a way to deny Ukrainians any direct or indirect access to Chinese-made drone components. It would not be easy to implement, but it would cripple the Ukraine.
As you point out, Mr. B., the most significant element of this whole story may be the silence from President Trump. If he has just learned unequivocally that he is being played either by Zelensky or by elements of the US intelligence agencies ... or both! ... there will be consequences which may be under the radar but would be very damaging to Zelensky.
"The Ukrainian attack was directed at the USA" suggests that it was a propaganda coup, aided by compliant western mainstream news media who once again passed along the Ukrainian government party line without any attempt to fact-check or get the other side of the story.
This only made me hate Ukraine even more, with a white hot hate and disgust. It also exposed Trump as wholly inadequate to the task of resolving this war. Zelensky has played him at every turn. Every turn!!! The question is, "What's wrong with Trump!?" Then The Sec Def declared the USA will defend Taiwan! Oh great! WW3 is OK with Trump then. Unless Trump boxes Zelensky's ears hard things will only get worse. Is another operation in the works by Ukraine?
Interesting report. I have said it before and will say it again even though I always get push back from the Russian cheerleaders. If I were Russian, I would wish for the end of the Putin regime. The Russian President is a good leader in some ways, but in war he is a disaster. Everyone says that Russia will win this war. Then why don't they do so? SMO? What foolishness when this is a war with NATO that might go nuclear? The problem I see with Putin is that he is a misguided Europhile avoiding entirely that the EU, Britain and the US want to see Russia Balkanized and will not let up - ever. One would think that would get Putin's dander up, but no. I think the people of Russia deserve new leadership. It's difficult for me to believe that they accept the way this war is being fought and the stupid reference to an "SMO."
You make excellent points. Putin seems to have a problem with reality. He does not realize the intensity of the hegemonic intent of the United States; China probably has the same misconceptions.
Yes, I don't think either of these two powers really face these issues. One wonders what would happen if Iran, Russia, China and North Korea joined together in a military alliance and said knock it off or else. China makes parts for the US military. They could say no parts for you, just as Russia could stop all oil to its enemies, but they both refuse to act decisively. The fact is that the US does not care one bit if it wins a war. It's the mischief they enjoy. And the killing.
It's not that easy. The Ukrainian army will eventually collapse, there is no way around it.
Putin is at least cool and rationale, while even most pro russians online seem to lose it.
Fact is Ukraine is winning the Propaganda war while Russia is winning the real one. Yes this stunt hurts, but it doesn't change the outcome on the battlefield.
That the Ukrainian army will "collapse" has been the cry for over three years. I see no sign that Ukraine will collapse any time soon. All Russia is doing is inviting escalation. The west has Mossad and MI6 intelligence and assorted other terrorist groups, plus Trump has failed. The next President may side with Europe and continue to aid our European cry babies by actually fighting. The political elites do not care about the death of the masses and actually want mass deaths. I do not underestimate the Globalists. They have done remarkably well overall and while fading somewhat still have considerable power. Imperialism has been with us for hundreds of years. The imperialists seem to adapt.
A "brilliant operation"? Only those actions that have influenced or will influence the future can be called successful! How did the explosions of civilian infrastructure with victims (terrorist attack, intimidation) and raids on strategic aviation airfields (sabotage) affect (in addition to Ukrainian propaganda) the current events at the front, the negotiations in Istanbul? You understand perfectly well that all these are acts of desperation before the complete collapse of American policy in Ukraine, and Russia will not give either a second or a third "chance"! What could be the next "brilliant operation"? Hostage-taking in a Russian school? The explosion at the stadium? My God, we've all been through this: Bandera's sabotage in 1956, the Chechens' actions in the 2000s. The most disgusting thing is that everyone knows about American involvement in these "operations", but they pretend that "someone else" did it. And if Russian intelligence had prevented attacks on airfields and reported the details, how would everyone have known that it wasn't Russian propaganda and disinformation?! Now everyone is talking about the "failure" of Russian intelligence, and no one is talking about the "victory" of Ukrainian propaganda and disinformation... Ha!
"The brazenness of the operation, which risked exposure along with way but was never uncovered, suggests a massive failure of Russian intelligence and a completely incompetent internal security system."
While I'm not in a position to judge the competency of Russian intelligence and internal security, I would suggest that an attack of this nature isn't evidence of their failure and incompetence as a whole. Well-planned infiltration and terrorist-style attacks are extremely difficult to prevent, even when countries are on the alert. This is especially true when the attacked country hasn't closed its borders or locked down its people. Russia's done neither, they remain open for business 24/7. That undoubtedly is a conscious decision on Russia's part, so presumably they accept that events like this are a possibility.
The question that should be considered is, was this all worth it on Ukraine's part? Considering the time and resources that must have been spent, it seems more of a PR victory than a game-changing event. Certainly nothing about Ukraine's attack will change how Russia is advancing on the battlefield, although it may very well invite a response from the Russians that Ukraine won't like.
It appears to me to want to show how clever they are with their toy planes and will simply harden Russian resolve as indicated in the article. More soldiers usually defeat fewer soldiers.
**NATO Satellites Aided SBU Strike on Olenya Airbase**
NATO satellites were directly involved in the June 1 Ukrainian sabotage attempt on Russia’s Olenya airbase. Beyond passive surveillance, they assisted the SBU with target intel and planning.
American TOPAZ military satellites captured 102 detailed images of the Kola Peninsula in the final week of May. Most were high to maximum resolution—enough to pinpoint objects to within meters.
.... "
Almost nothing in the Rybar "report" makes sense. A couple of the "observations" possibly could be done by one of 3-4 very advanced nationstate actors, but not someone without access to very advanced sensors.
Some of the things cited as fact - such as numbers of images taken, resolution, etc. - are simply impossible to ascertain from the ground. Others violate basic physics principles. Some could only come from tapping into the system itself, not from outside COMINT or SIGINT.
There is nothing the Ukrainians did in that operation that required US technical or operational support. Doesn't mean they didn't get it, but we don't know.
They could use US post operation battle damage assessment intel to determine how successful the kinetic attack was.
Only time will tell if the political gambit to protract or expand the war will be successful, whoever's idea it turns out to be.
For the notion that some of the US IC knew of the attack but didn't inform President Trump, General Flynn sums that up far better than I can.
The bombers were in the open because the Russians were adhering to the New Start Treaty (signed in 2010 between Obama and the President Menadev) which states that strategic bombers are to be parked in the open for satellite confirmation by the other side. The same applies to the US side as well. Interesting that Ukraine claim using this same satellite information was used in their planning.
The Ukrainians claim that they informed the Americans, even as the Trump Administration claim they were not informed. Who to believe given the ability of both these actors to be very libveral with the truth?
The Treaty also states that these airbases are not to be attacked by the either side, AND THEIR ALLIES. Given that the US/NATO has been supporting Ukraine in this war - and are therefore beligerents, the Russians might conclude that the West is in breech of the treaty (given Ukrainian use of satellite information and perhaps other assistance). The upshot of this is that the Russians might tear up the treaty which governs mush more such as numbers and forms of nuclear warheads - something the Trump Administration will not want.
Furthermore, this attack, although spectacular, will have no effect on the battlefield where the Russians continue to be successful - and that is what counts the most. This also will likely harden Russian resolve, and may result in further Russian demands on Putin to continue the war by the Russian population, and thought through retailation. This is a tactical victory, not a strategic success for the Ukrainians, and they may live to regret it. This attack does nothing to win the war.
Strategic bombers do not have to be exposed on the tarmac in the open. While some strategic bombers may be parked in the open, this is not a requirement, and many are stored in hardened shelters or hangars for better protection. Nuclear arms treaties do not generally mandate that strategic bombers be parked openly for verification. The New START Treaty, for instance, focuses on limiting deployed warheads, delivery systems, and launchers, verifying compliance through on-site inspections, data exchanges, and national technical means like satellite imagery. While open parking facilitates satellite monitoring, it's not a requirement of the treaty itself.
Sorry Stephen, but to correct you - on site inspection by the US side ended in February 2023 stopped when Putin said that a participant belligerent against Russia with access to its nuclear facility would not be allowed. As a sop the Russians agreed to have their bombers out in the open for satellite inspection as allowed for in the treaty.
simply put they didn't have any shelters so the sop was meaningless
The treaty states 'onsite inspections and satellite imagery'. The Russians have changed that to just satellite imagery - irrespective of shelters.
That fine but the treaty says nothing about planes being out in the open. Whatever the Russians do is beside the point. You quoted the treaty and then revised what it says.
Considering past examples of your (highly partisan) postings here, I think I'll favour Brenton over you for accuracy. .
While the Trump admin may have been surprised, the American national security bureaucracy almost certainly was not.
You raise a serious question with no immediate answers.
There is an immediate answer: Our oligarchy is in the middle of a power struggle right now, and it is further divided by the different ways the different factions want to go vis-a-vis both Ukraine and Israel.
In this case, one side of our MIC wants to prolong the Ukraine War because profits, while the other is sane enough to know any war with Russia is Batshit Crazy. Big Oil profits from the anti-Russian sanctions by price-gouging Europeans, but doesn't want a war with Russia for the same reasons as the saner part of the MIC, and if they have to eventually give up their extorted LNG profits, well, they're Big Oil. They'll manage.
There's also the Batshit Crazy imperialists in the MIC and Spook World who want to impose American hegemony over the whole world and who are becoming increasingly desperate. My best guess is that Ukraine told some of them, and they probably did not inform Trump of the details of the strike, anyway, for one simple reason.
He might have said No. Better to ask for forgiveness later, you know.
Glad we are reporting on this PR stunt.
Well, there are people who are winning real war, avoid civilian casualties and still keep the lights on in Ukraine and then there are people who target civilian infrastructure within Russia and some far away bases. Ukrainian going full ISIS by saying Russians civilians need to feel the war says it all. They are desperate.
He's referring to civilian deaths on the bridge attack
They accomplished so much lol. Tmr Kiev will win the war because Putin is so scared...
If this operation took 18 months to plan as they claim there is no way that US / UK intelligence services were not in the loop. They are so deeply inserted in the Ukrainian command structure that they MUST have had prior awareness at a minimum (and most likely were consulted regarding best practices, updated intel, etc.). If those outfits did NOT tell their respective leaders of the operation in advance they are remiss. If this managed (somehow) to occur without their knowledge, they are again - remiss. My bet is that there was an information cutout such that the info did not reach the president / PM for their daily briefings.
Russia withdrew from START3 but did not abrogate the treaty. Leaving bombers visible was part of the original deal. It was flat out foolish of them to comply with a treaty they had withdrawn from.
So - - - how many hangers in Diego? None for B2's per the latest pics I've seen. And the B52's in Barksdale are sitting ready for an elephant walk. Drones are prevalent enough that a deniable attack by the "bad guys" (Russian, Norks, ChiComs, Cartels, fill in the blank) could be executed at a very reasonable cost/benefit rate.
There are red lines and there are red lines. Crippling one leg of the nuclear triad would most likely meet the stricter criteria. The Russians have been patient, chipping away at emptying the Western arsenals without serious brinksmanship. I'd anticipate a response to this exercise in about two weeks - time for them to make a very deliberate decision. I'd anticipate it wouldn't be purely military (or even military at all). Cutting off the supply of nuclear reactor fuel rods to the West, liaising with China to purchase all outbound shipments of a specific pharmaceutical formulation previously destined for the West, hacking the SWIFT system or eliminating the electrical supply in the Square Mile via flux compression generator. There are lots of options.
Putin is a methodical, disciplined thinker. The attack on his helicopter on the 20th of May by 46 drones together with this strike may push him to be less conservative. Please keep in mind that Putin is the least dangerous option of the other folks in queue behind him for succession.
I would say Ukraine could not tell US or anyone of plan to hit nuclear bombers. That would likely open up US/NATO to Russia charges of treaty violations and active engagement in the war on Russian soil. War front could expand tremendously then, and probably not in good way for Ukraine. Use of tactical nukes become real possibility if US/NATO is attacking Russia’s nuke infrastructure.
The services probably decided to cut the President out after Obama kept leaking Israeli plans to the Iranians .
Good analysis. Although “incompetent internal security” - really? - I would rate the chances of China pulling off a similar or even copycat attack against the US as pretty good, staging across the Canadian or Mexican border.
We are at serious risk and do not have an integrated internal security system. Russia is supposed to be good at such things, but obviously they are not. I have warned already about the danger of a drone attack in the US, either launched locally, from sea, or from Cuba or Mexico, for example.
Very true. The threat environment is changing with bewildering speed.
I wrote this on May 6 (substack): 'Golden Dome is an ambitious, if undefined, new program. But it does not include defense against other territorial threats, especially drone attacks that can be supported by non-state actors and hostile countries. As the war in Ukraine demonstrates, the Russians and Ukrainians can attack each other with long range drones. Ukraine hit Moscow, including Putin's Kremlin office, launching drones that flew 1,688 km to their target. Any US enemy can do the same, either from land (including drones launched inside the US) or from the sea.
The US has no comprehensive air defense system and is badly exposed to any enemy attack, including against sensitive government installations, nuclear power plants, reservoirs and dams, and the population itself. Imagine a drone crashing into the Super Bowl."
"Imagjne a drone crashing into the Super Bowl" Here, again, is the clumsy, semi-literate use of language..... 'crashing' implies an accidental impact, where you intend a targeted, deliberate, impact.... Americans struggle with literacy. Besides which, this Super Bowl suggestion is fantastic.... the Cathedral of the Damned. Very visual, huge eyeball numbers.... do it.
Is Mar a Lago within drone range of Cuba? Could have a Cuban drone crisis. This time instead of JFK, we have a brain dead realestate developer in the Whitehouse. Trump would rightly be very concerned about damage to his property, and the resulting rise in insurance costs no doubt. Would be a real shame if it was turned into Gaza.
Stephen,
Understand your desire to push a report out as quickly as possible however there are gross inaccuracies in your essay..
Firstly, only two bases were hit tho 4/5 were targeted. There is screeds of evidence confirming this, evidence lost in the house that followed the initial reporting, reporting based more on wishful thinking by a starved of any success Western Alliance, hardly surprising.
Secondly, civilians intervened in the attack stopping at least 3 trucks releasing their loads, two of which detonated predicate it is estimated onboard cameras that let those viewing their plan was up, when the doors were opened by civilians who in suspecting malfeasance decided fatefully for them their demise, however, by their actions they denied Ukrainexand undoubtedly their U.K/E.U cobelligerents the success they craved.
Thirdly, many drones attempting to hit these bases, in two cases were entirely shot down, those bases suffering no losses.
Fourthly, as we know it is for that corrupted drug addled Nazi perverts want, together that of the nations administration, this attack was as much for narrative spin as it was for inflicting kinetic loss. That is evidenced the statements following including cheered the Western media most of whom seem to be truly “getting off” reporting this, reality however it was no where the success they thought it would be… most craft hit were older Bombers in fact slated for discontinuance post this conflict, having been replaced the new bombers under construction as we read of this attack, four of the new iterations already delivered, in short the Airfields that suffered damage thankfully aside the early warning aircraft damaged had only the older craft on the aprons.
Just thought I’d correct a few inconsistencies in your essay, it’s important with events such as this we strive to report accurately more so given the MSM want to lie, obfuscate, tell blatant lies, all to boost ratings as much as to support the warmongers…
Enjoy your reports, essays, always something learned for which I truly congratulate you, the issues noted above are not major in the scheme of things but a tighter accuracy in these types of reports would definitely help..
Just saying
Kia Kaha (Stay strong) from New Zealand
I have not seen any reports of these drones being shot down. Five bases were attacked according to most press reports and mil-bloggers. Obviously the full details are not known and anyway is not central to my argument. Actually I don't think there is anything "inconsistent" in my argument which you totally ignore.
Thank you Stephen,
Not ignoring your argument, indeed the point made about the seriousness of this attack, more so aimed as it is and you correctly highlight as much if not more heavily the U.S Trump Administration as it was the target Russia, is right on the money, underscoring the fact these lunatics will it seems stop at nothing to perpetrate their need for escalation, fearful of both the ramifications of an actual formalised defeat and of the parlous financial position of the economies of those shouting loudest for escalation… not to mention the inherent risk of continuing to attack a nuclear superpower’s nuclear assets.. ( Advance Warning Radars and now the Delivery system) a reckless act indeed, I have no doubts though lack actual evidence, which in time I’m sure will manifest that U.K hands were all over this, hopefully the U.S were not involved although the U.S’s recent admissions as to being both fully appraised and aware of as well as green-lighting the despicable assassination program this Nazi regime has been conducting against military and civilian Russians is scant reason to truly take the U.S word about not being aware, just another reason to continue to mistrust anything that is said or undertaken by the U.S … most in the world understand this, little wonder the U.S is so despised… something truly regrettable but self inflicted..
Truly appreciate and enjoy every writing posted, you are gifted and obviously very intelligent traits that come through clearly in your work…
Best
By “most press reports” you mean the Western MSM , and of course the accuracy, insight and diligence they display in reporting on Russia, is of course utterly beyond reproach.
This sounds like Russian disinformation to me.
Really, you embarrass yourself with such banal and inane comment… grow up
Kiwi here! I subbed to your 'stack but no content yet !! Get busy ....
Sorry Henry,
I haven’t undertaken regular writing, most posts are comments on essays written from those I subscribe to.. many of which, unfortunately for those reading them, being 1-3 parts in length… 😢
My focus is geo politics (love U.S politics), economics, finance (Wall Street, Fiat monetary system, Precious Metals) and from my understanding of Modern history and especially being acutely aware of the nefarious acts and deeds undertaken by many so called elites, their self serving Think Tanks, the ubiquitous Foundations established together the Councils such as Atlantic, Council Foreign Relations, Chatham House all of which we know lobby and write legislation usurping and undermining the entire supposed democracy our political elites are oft want to bang on about, Rockefeller’s Club of Rome and the The Trilateral Commission he established, together his, Rockefeller’s efforts (successfully) to introduce and support Margaret Sanger, like Rockefeller another Eugenicist, she the proponent of Abortion in the U.S who established the policy that has seen some 60+ million black lives aborted, the efforts of Rockefeller to undermine the US Medicine and Healthcare and his stunningly successful efforts at gaining control of the U.N and its offshoot the WHO… the WHO success a crowning glory for avowed eugenicists, another topic I have widely covered was COVID and the deleterious impact of that entire orchestrated sham…
I also post on occasions faith based commentary as and when deemed appropriate.. especially when beliefs are exposed to posts that are derogatory, unwarranted, that malign said beliefs and are patently lacking in any established basis of fact, that are so far off base that a response is required.
I guess my activity on Substack limited as it is, is the result of having wide ranging interests… garnered from a love of reading and listening to others more learned than I, whose posts be they written, audio or audio visual actually educate… it’s all a learning experience for me and one I thoroughly enjoy..
Thank you for your comment and trust this at least helps you understand my lack of actual posts aside my replies written, I believe though anything posted can be obtained and is accessible if you are keen to read content…
Kia Kaha (stay strong) N.Z
1. The attack was assuredly made with the active participation of the United States and its catamites.
2. The attack was entirely successful, as it shifted the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence.
Everyone is already discussing the negotiations in Istanbul, and you are talking about some kind of "shift of attention" to the last breath of a dying deer.
Ukraine has no interest in ending anything, and Trump is too much of a moron to make them.
Well, if you take Trump or his predecessors seriously as real presidential leaders, and not puppets of a "permanent government," then in the eyes of the public he really looks stupid (like Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton). Zelensky looks even more stupid against this background, but he doesn't solve anything either. But Putin and his "permanent government" decide a lot.Who needs to be executed, who needs to be pardoned.The most important thing is when and where.
I am not sure what point you are trying to make, although Zelenskii is playing his role quite well, since is doing whatever it takes to harm Russia, since nobody cares about Ukraine or Ukrainians, not in Washington, not in Brussels, not in Kiev.
Cynical? Yup, and it works.
"Harming Russia" is an understatement. This is a long-standing policy of the United States, independent of presidents. But one thing is unclear - did the deindustrialized country want to solve all the "problems with Russia" at the expense of financial tentacles that entangled the whole Earth, completely without relying on its industrial capabilities? Despite the fact that the entire US economy is 90% dependent on external supplies by sea and does not have its own merchant fleet?! If this is the case, then they clearly have problems with experts in the field of global economics. Or the problems are even more serious than many Americans can imagine.
Even if what you said were true, what is Russia waiting for?
Yes, Putin needs to end this shit show...NOW!
How? Launch a rocket at the Statue of Liberty or stop the flow of the Thames? Putin can't stop it in any way, because the opponents can't stop! Escalation is inevitable, but let it happen through no fault of our own.
"Putin can't stop it in any way, because the opponents can't stop!"
Wrong. Putin should never have allowed this war to go on for so long. He should have won a quick, decisive battle. But since he didn't, he should now see the folly of his ways and bring Ukraine to its knees.
«- Hello, I'm your aunt from Konotop.» 🤦🏻 © Are America and NATO, who started all this in Ukraine, in some way incomprehensible to anyone, just going to leave Russia alone? The war, the real war, is just beginning! It is not Ukraine that needs a "truce", but the United States and Europe. To prolong the war on someone else's territory, but not on their own. Read the Russian memorandum at the Istanbul talks - it contains all the keys to an immediate end to the war. In fact, these are the conditions for preserving Ukraine within its current borders. If Ukraine and the United States do not accept any of this, further seizure will follow. And who and what can stop it?
If the United States and its european catamites wanted a truce, they sure don't act like it, but take every opportunity to escalate.
Russia's task is not to launch another massive missile attack on Ukraine to harm Ukrainians, but to make Europe and the United States feel "uncomfortable." How? I don't know. Putin said he would definitely respond. It remains to trust him and wait.
Wars are not won by shifting narratives for a week or two. Ukraine cannot win this war on the battlefield, and the Russians know it.
Sure they can, since the plan was ever always only for NATO to intervene directly and openly.
It is a reasonable suspicion that this is not the first time the Zelensky regime has launched drones from inside Russia's borders. That would explain the improbably long flight paths over Russia reported for some earlier drone attacks. It might also be consistent with the "18 month" time frame reported by jubilant Kiev authorities.
If that speculation is correct, then the present attack may represent the Last Hurrah of that kind of long-distance drone attack. Now the cover has been blown, and it will be much more difficult to repeat in the future.
Of course, that speculation would also point to even more severe incompetence in Russia's security services who did not know what was going on under their noses for months. But we don't often see competence in the US or Europe, neither in their militaries nor in their civilian administrations. Why would Russia be any different?
The most practical response from Russia would be to huddle with their Chinese allies and work out a way to deny Ukrainians any direct or indirect access to Chinese-made drone components. It would not be easy to implement, but it would cripple the Ukraine.
As you point out, Mr. B., the most significant element of this whole story may be the silence from President Trump. If he has just learned unequivocally that he is being played either by Zelensky or by elements of the US intelligence agencies ... or both! ... there will be consequences which may be under the radar but would be very damaging to Zelensky.
"The Ukrainian attack was directed at the USA" suggests that it was a propaganda coup, aided by compliant western mainstream news media who once again passed along the Ukrainian government party line without any attempt to fact-check or get the other side of the story.
This only made me hate Ukraine even more, with a white hot hate and disgust. It also exposed Trump as wholly inadequate to the task of resolving this war. Zelensky has played him at every turn. Every turn!!! The question is, "What's wrong with Trump!?" Then The Sec Def declared the USA will defend Taiwan! Oh great! WW3 is OK with Trump then. Unless Trump boxes Zelensky's ears hard things will only get worse. Is another operation in the works by Ukraine?
Yes. Another operation is in the works by Ukraine. Maybe even two.
"This" made you hate them? Attacking military targets successfully. Those bastards!!
Maybe I am being a simpleton - but…
1. Russia uses these planes to launch cruise missiles into Ukraine almost everyday.
2. Ukraine figures out how to lessen those launches by taking out some of the planes launching them and does so.
What is Ukraine supposed to do - just sit there and take the blows?
I realize it harms the Russian deterrence triad - but if they were really worried about that why would they use it in this “SMO” making it a target?
There's your answer, morning of Tuesday, June 3. Now you can hate them more(r).
Interesting report. I have said it before and will say it again even though I always get push back from the Russian cheerleaders. If I were Russian, I would wish for the end of the Putin regime. The Russian President is a good leader in some ways, but in war he is a disaster. Everyone says that Russia will win this war. Then why don't they do so? SMO? What foolishness when this is a war with NATO that might go nuclear? The problem I see with Putin is that he is a misguided Europhile avoiding entirely that the EU, Britain and the US want to see Russia Balkanized and will not let up - ever. One would think that would get Putin's dander up, but no. I think the people of Russia deserve new leadership. It's difficult for me to believe that they accept the way this war is being fought and the stupid reference to an "SMO."
You make excellent points. Putin seems to have a problem with reality. He does not realize the intensity of the hegemonic intent of the United States; China probably has the same misconceptions.
Yes, I don't think either of these two powers really face these issues. One wonders what would happen if Iran, Russia, China and North Korea joined together in a military alliance and said knock it off or else. China makes parts for the US military. They could say no parts for you, just as Russia could stop all oil to its enemies, but they both refuse to act decisively. The fact is that the US does not care one bit if it wins a war. It's the mischief they enjoy. And the killing.
" The fact is that the US does not care one bit if it wins a war. It's the mischief they enjoy. And the killing."
Indeed, and most of all, the wealth from the materiel.
It's not that easy. The Ukrainian army will eventually collapse, there is no way around it.
Putin is at least cool and rationale, while even most pro russians online seem to lose it.
Fact is Ukraine is winning the Propaganda war while Russia is winning the real one. Yes this stunt hurts, but it doesn't change the outcome on the battlefield.
That the Ukrainian army will "collapse" has been the cry for over three years. I see no sign that Ukraine will collapse any time soon. All Russia is doing is inviting escalation. The west has Mossad and MI6 intelligence and assorted other terrorist groups, plus Trump has failed. The next President may side with Europe and continue to aid our European cry babies by actually fighting. The political elites do not care about the death of the masses and actually want mass deaths. I do not underestimate the Globalists. They have done remarkably well overall and while fading somewhat still have considerable power. Imperialism has been with us for hundreds of years. The imperialists seem to adapt.
"I do not underestimate the Globalists."
For sure. They are rapacious megalomaniacs and are in it for all the marbles.
American, amirite? It's the mindset, and comprehension, that gives it away .... all the depth and clarity of a mud puddle
I’m interested in how this will change the dynamics within the Russian Federation. Georgia and Chechnya? Will they see Putin as weakened?
And Russian allies such as India? And North Korea? How will those relationships change?
Let's wait and see what the Russians do to fix their internal security problems.
A "brilliant operation"? Only those actions that have influenced or will influence the future can be called successful! How did the explosions of civilian infrastructure with victims (terrorist attack, intimidation) and raids on strategic aviation airfields (sabotage) affect (in addition to Ukrainian propaganda) the current events at the front, the negotiations in Istanbul? You understand perfectly well that all these are acts of desperation before the complete collapse of American policy in Ukraine, and Russia will not give either a second or a third "chance"! What could be the next "brilliant operation"? Hostage-taking in a Russian school? The explosion at the stadium? My God, we've all been through this: Bandera's sabotage in 1956, the Chechens' actions in the 2000s. The most disgusting thing is that everyone knows about American involvement in these "operations", but they pretend that "someone else" did it. And if Russian intelligence had prevented attacks on airfields and reported the details, how would everyone have known that it wasn't Russian propaganda and disinformation?! Now everyone is talking about the "failure" of Russian intelligence, and no one is talking about the "victory" of Ukrainian propaganda and disinformation... Ha!
Did I tell you a scary story when you really wanted to listen to a lullaby? You've reached out to the wrong person.
"The brazenness of the operation, which risked exposure along with way but was never uncovered, suggests a massive failure of Russian intelligence and a completely incompetent internal security system."
While I'm not in a position to judge the competency of Russian intelligence and internal security, I would suggest that an attack of this nature isn't evidence of their failure and incompetence as a whole. Well-planned infiltration and terrorist-style attacks are extremely difficult to prevent, even when countries are on the alert. This is especially true when the attacked country hasn't closed its borders or locked down its people. Russia's done neither, they remain open for business 24/7. That undoubtedly is a conscious decision on Russia's part, so presumably they accept that events like this are a possibility.
The question that should be considered is, was this all worth it on Ukraine's part? Considering the time and resources that must have been spent, it seems more of a PR victory than a game-changing event. Certainly nothing about Ukraine's attack will change how Russia is advancing on the battlefield, although it may very well invite a response from the Russians that Ukraine won't like.
"I would suggest that an attack of this nature isn't evidence of their SUCCESS and COMPETENCE as a whole."
Fixed that for you.
It appears to me to want to show how clever they are with their toy planes and will simply harden Russian resolve as indicated in the article. More soldiers usually defeat fewer soldiers.
[https://t.me/rybar_in_english/22840](https://t.me/rybar_in_english/22840)
**NATO Satellites Aided SBU Strike on Olenya Airbase**
NATO satellites were directly involved in the June 1 Ukrainian sabotage attempt on Russia’s Olenya airbase. Beyond passive surveillance, they assisted the SBU with target intel and planning.
American TOPAZ military satellites captured 102 detailed images of the Kola Peninsula in the final week of May. Most were high to maximum resolution—enough to pinpoint objects to within meters.
.... "
Almost nothing in the Rybar "report" makes sense. A couple of the "observations" possibly could be done by one of 3-4 very advanced nationstate actors, but not someone without access to very advanced sensors.
Some of the things cited as fact - such as numbers of images taken, resolution, etc. - are simply impossible to ascertain from the ground. Others violate basic physics principles. Some could only come from tapping into the system itself, not from outside COMINT or SIGINT.
There is nothing the Ukrainians did in that operation that required US technical or operational support. Doesn't mean they didn't get it, but we don't know.
They could use US post operation battle damage assessment intel to determine how successful the kinetic attack was.
Only time will tell if the political gambit to protract or expand the war will be successful, whoever's idea it turns out to be.
For the notion that some of the US IC knew of the attack but didn't inform President Trump, General Flynn sums that up far better than I can.
https://x.com/GenFlynn/status/1930336703052689852
We don't agree on this one.