Europe Gasping for Air as Trump Makes His Ukraine Move
No NATO Membership for Ukraine, No US Troops
European leaders who have been strongly supporting keeping the Ukraine war going have been dealt a serious blow by President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Most of them must be in shock, gasping for breath.
Let's start with Hegseth. He made the following declarations:
1. Ukraine's membership in NATO is off the table. Ukraine won't be invited to join NATO.
2. The US will not send any troops to Ukraine for any reason, including peacekeeping.
3. The US will no longer supply or pay for weapons and support for Ukraine. It will be up to the European NATO members to provide support to Ukraine.
4. While the US supports NATO, American participation has to be fair and equitable, meaning that NATO members will have to significantly increase their contributions.
5. Ukraine will not be able to go back to the borders it had before 2014, meaning that the US expects important territorial concessions from Ukraine.
President Trump, meanwhile, held an hour and a half phone meeting with Russian President Putin. The key takeaway is that Putin said he is willing to start negotiations with the United States on Ukraine and other security issues.
The Trump-Putin conversation covered many topics, for example security issues, energy, artificial intelligence, "the power of the dollar" and "various other subjects."
Following the call, Trump apparently placed a call "to inform" Ukrainian President Zelensky of his conversation with Putin. He also immediately set up his negotiating team. He designated Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations.
Significantly, the list of participants did not include retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg. Kellogg had been openly flogging the idea of significantly increasing sanctions on Russia as a way to get concessions on Ukraine. As he put it, on a scale of 1 to 10, current sanctions on Russia are only a 3. He proposed raising them far higher (assuming this could be done). These comments directly undermined Trump's approach to Putin and Russia, and appear to have been Kellogg's idea (among others) to make sure the Ukraine war continued. Whether Kellogg will again appear as a player in Ukraine remains to be seen.
It will take time for Europe's pro-war leaders, along with the EU, to contemplate the future, now that the rug has pretty well been pulled out from under their feet.
The Europeans have neither the weapons, the troops nor the money to keep the war going in Ukraine. Nor will they get much support for continuing the war if the United States won't play in the game. In fact, should Europe want to continue on its own, without the United States, they risk the future of the NATO alliance.
Many of the leaders in Europe are in trouble domestically. Germany, France, Poland and even Romania where Presidential elections were cancelled to prevent the leading opposition candidate from being elected, are examples of the growing instability in the European leadership class. Revelations about US and EU interference in the electoral process in Georgia, Serbia and Slovakia, perhaps also Moldova, emphasize the squalid nature of current-day politics in Europe.
The Trump administration is liquidating USAID, which has been acting as a sort of CIA-front in many of the above countries, including Ukraine. With that source of money and support cut off, the EU is being handed a serious problem that goes well beyond finance: the phony argument that the EU (and with it, NATO) is upholding democracy is now exposed. The loss of legitimacy is a real threat to the ruling elites.
Trump has an important geopolitical perspective. It runs something like this: European security is important but is not really threatened by Russia. The US faces a resurgent China that has a (largely Western-supplied) very modern industrial base, a massive workforce, and an increasingly well-equipped and powerful military. From Trump's point of view, he needs a more friendly Russia that can help balance global power relationships. To get from there to here, he needs to find ways to redefine the US-Russia relationship which is in deep disarray and infused with mutual hostility. In his 90 minute conversation with Putin, Trump was poking at economic and technology capabilities that could, in future, provide a basis for improving relations.
No one can say right now whether a deal can be found for Ukraine, but there is reason to be more optimistic that the two sides can work something out.
We will need to see if the Europeans push back and try to sabotage a deal on Ukraine. The reality is Europe has little it can do if Putin and Trump agree on a deal.
Stephen, your news-report today is the biggest, most important, news about Trump that I have ever run into, because -- if it is true, which I think it probably is (given the contacts you probably have) -- you are reporting hugely important decisions by Trump, ALL of which indicate what a great U.S. President would do about the world's top national-security problem, which is for America finally to END the Cold War on its side as Russia ended it on its side in 1991. This is even bigger news than the Senate's confirmation today of Tulsi Gabbard as his DNI. WOW!!!
In my lifetime, which didn't begin yesterday, the USA has always sought to dominate its allies and crush its enemies. This predilection only seemed to intensify when the US became the world hegemon after the collapse of the USSR. Then successive US administrations couldn't make wars fast enough: Yugoslavia (1999), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), Syria and elsewhere. America seemed to forget that it had much to tend to at home, and instead sought to destroy any perceived threat no matter how small or where in the world it might be. It spent 20 years fighting sandal-clad Afghan farmers armed with only AK-47's - surely one of the most bizarre and disgusting spectacles in military history - only to have to withdraw in disarray. And then plunged right back into the war in Ukraine!
It's a bit too early to know if Trump is the real deal when it comes to setting America on a new and less depraved path. But so far I like what I see. Trump doesn't appear to view other great powers as existential enemies, but as business competitors who can be negotiated with to arrive at mutually beneficial arrangements. This is a much better way to view the world today. In any case, the age of a sole, excessively dominant power has come to an end and good riddance to it.
The world is looking like a less dangerous place with each passing day of the Trump administration. However it remains to be seen if the danger to him from elements of the US deep state will diminish as well.