49 Comments
User's avatar
Eric Zuesse's avatar

Why, Stephen, are you gung-ho-ing Trump's outrageous lie-based entirely illegal invasion of Iran?

Brenton's avatar

Stephen needs a wider view of the war - and HE NEEDS TO RECOGNIZE FACTS! Facts:

1. Trump, and Netanyahu, started a war they did not need to start.

2. The Trump Administration did not prepare adequately for this War, did not consult allies and did not try to get them on board - he even rebuffed help. He derided them, insulted them and even threatened to invade one of his allies.

3. The War has gone tits-up and Trump is desperate to extricate himself from the mess he got himself, is trying to palm it off to others.

4. The Europeans are looking at the situation and saying basically, 'You made this mess, you clean it up.' The Europeans see no upside in this conflict.

5. The US Navy - the most powerful navy in the world - refuses to force the straits. It would basically be a replay of the first phase of the Dardanelles Campaign in 1915 where the Anglo-French fleet tried and failed to force these straits under fire. Now Trump wants the Europeans to provide the cannon fodder.

6. The longer this situation continues the more desperate Trump becomes, the more accommodation the Europeans make with Iran.

The EU refusal to get involved is not damaging European security, but Trump's attack on Iran has.

von Manstein's avatar

Exactly. Very good post.

The Euros are for once not behaving like idiots. As Pistorious said, for once making sense -- "It's not our war -- we didn't start it."

Your points 3 and 4 are the main ones. The war has gone tits-up in spectacular fashion. And it's even worse than we know -- information is being tightly controlled; we'll see the full extent of it pretty soon. The end of this will be ignoble in the extreme. The Euros have nothing to gain, and everything to lose, by getting involved in this fiasco.

Col Sanchez's avatar

The short of it Iran had to be controlled whether now of later. There is no convenient time but saying that after June last year the present joint attack was timely. On can argue the pro & cons but from a Western european perspective their EU/Nato response has been for all intents & purposes high handed, disrespectful and uncoperative to say the least. Trump has taken offence and that's a bad place for pacifist Europe to face. They knew US did not have such ships yet, these newcommers having no experience in wars thought they would play an non commital not our war policy probably pandering to voters particularly in UK, France, Belgium & Nethelands. As Mr Bryen points out and considering the threat of Russia & allies has never been greater they play a very dangerous game. After all for a while they were aware Trump declaring the spending wasfar too low, the stocks of spares & ammuniting wonting, forces size & moral low. All very reminiscent of Europe in the 1930's detesting another war yet facing the prospect daily.

Living in SW Europe I am very fearful of the result while Trump remains President. I fear he may well withdraw from Nato overnight. I need not spell out the consequences initially perhaps only for Finland, Poland and possibly Germany who relied on Article for US to come to the rescue and not the likes of UK, Portugal or Spain !.

Brenton's avatar

You are mistaken. It is Trump that plays the dangerous game. He is a Man-Child - easily manipulated by the Washington Liberals and Netanyahu. Poor planning, over confidence and hubris personify this operation. With friends like Trump Europe does not need enemies. Trump's war on Iran is anti-European, and even could be said to be anti-Western.

You speak of the danger that Europe faces from Russia - now they face an economic danger from Iran which multiplies the threats they face. At a time that Europe is purportedly building up, this could not come at a worse time.

Less you forget - the only time Article Five was triggered was when Europe came to the US's aid after 9/11. The US has over various presidencies squandered this, even more so in the Trump era.

The war is unpopular in Europe and especially unpopular in the US (about 20% support). How long before Trump is impeached - again, and could be the first President to be removed from office. What price the war then?

von Manstein's avatar

"The short of it Iran had to be controlled whether now of later. There is no convenient time but saying that after June last year the present joint attack was timely."

You call what is going on now Iran getting "controlled"? Really?! This is delusional.

We have swapped out an 80-something year old ayatollah who was the main obstacle to Iranian nukes for a 50-something one with no such religious scruples, and who has a father, a son, and a wife to avenge. The mullahs are in firmer control than ever. We are running out of PAC-3's and THAADs and there is no end in sight. An oil shock is about to give us a global financial crisis. The only way this war can end is for us to go begging. The risk of nuclear war in the region has just been increased by orders of magnitude. We are completely isolated with all of our allies, in the Gulf, and in Europe, up in arms against us. We are complete chumps of Netanyahu. Thanks, Donald! Someone wrote that Netanyahu waiting for 40 years to find a U.S. president stupid enough to walk into this one.

If you think our Iraq and Afghanistan wars were failures, you haven't seen anything yet. As bad as those were, this is a whole different level, a whole different universe of stupid.

Unwoke in Idaho's avatar

The Europeans need the oil from the gulf way more than the US but expect the US to do all the heavy lifting. The reckoning cannot come too soon. Perhaps Ukraine and their willing European dupes will feel the first pain of no more US help? One can only hope.

Wil's avatar

Five days apart.

Knalldi's avatar

Well didn't Trump just write verbatim "WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!" in that weird platform of his?

Whats the fuss about then?

Dugz's avatar

The fuss is about their (lack of) commitment. He has forced their hand. I believe it to be intentional.

Gavin Longmuir's avatar

If we had a real US Congress -- instead of the unrepresentative bunch of greedy self-promoters we have today -- a lot of US Navy former leaders would find themselves answering serious questions about how they made the decision to eliminate minesweeping capabilities. And maybe exchanging their comfy retirement seats on MIC Boards for jail cells.

Ed's avatar

If we had a real US Congress, they would have demanded that Trump appear and explain his reasons for this war prior to initiating hostilities, then they would have insisted on the Congress making the decision to take the American people into yet another war in West Asia.

But insofar as the Congress is concerned, the Constitution is something they use to wipe their collective A$$.

Gavin Longmuir's avatar

The Euros are really dumb! The smart answer would have been to agree to send minesweepers to the general area, but not put them into Hormuz until Iranian firing had stopped. Instead, they said no -- playing right into the hands of President Trump who wants to step back from the Rest of the World and focus on the Western Hemisphere.

Russia is looking at the spinelessness of the Euros and contemplating its next steps in the war against the Ukraine -- a war in which the Euros through their own behavior have sacrificed any chance of US support. Of course, hollowing out NATO is another of President Trump's goals.

Dugz's avatar

This is exactly correct. A strategic blunder on the part of the Euros.

Keith Wyton's avatar

There is no shortage of blather coming from all quarters. Bottom line is that the US has harmed its allies by actions that are consequential, blather aside. The benefits to the US of those actions must be measured against the consequences. Trump acts as though only he has agency.

Is it so?

David's avatar

No. Israel is NOT part of the Western alliance. It is a cuckoo in the nest.

Dick Minnis's avatar

A serious question for everyone who has an opinion opposing this conflict. What do you think the Theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran would do if allowed to develop a nuclear weapon adaptable to their ballistic missiles? Use it as a Nuclear umbrella to continue their proxy wars? First strike attack against Israel a country they have vowed to destroy? Consider their behavior over the last 47 years and consider the potential for a suicide bomber mentality writ large on a country wide basis by striking first. Consider a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel leaving an area with 30% of the world's oil a smoking nuclear waste with millions dead. Show me proof that diplomacy has worked. I reconnize the abysmal record of US involvement in the middle east, but because a threat is not imminent doesn't mean it's not real, and by the time it is imminent it would be to late. If not now, then when. The days of isolationism as a National policy are long gone. Wrote about this in a recently posted substack.

Dick Minnis

removingthecataract.substack.com

Col Sanchez's avatar

Who can disagree with this well written clear comment.?. Yet even here there are some

Dugz's avatar

We are in agreement. It amazes me that people with no military background and who also seem inept on world affairs seem to be the loudest in speaking their opinion. Seems to me that they would listen to someone with Col in front of their name. I have MSgt (retired) in front of mine and proud of the experience. Iran has been begging for this for 47 years. I'm thankful we have a President who is willing to act before it is too late. I only hope that we see the job through and not let politics drive our mission.

von Manstein's avatar

That's an argument for taking away their nuclear program.

Even if I agreed with you, that's NOT an argument for doing the stupid thing we are doing now, which has not and will not change the regime (as our own intelligence services were saying even before the war), and which has not and will not end their nuclear program.

If we wanted to change the regime and end their nuclear program for good, we would have to put our economy on a war footing, slash social spending, raise taxes, send a million troops, and manufacture tens of thousands of body bags. And we are not willing to do that. There's not a snowball's chance in hell we're doing that.

Therefore, what are our options?

It's important to remember that Israel has been committed for 40 years to destroying and breaking up Iran into a failed state. It's true that the mullahs chant "Death to Israel" but it's not a one way street.

If there's a solution to this, it's most definitely not doing what we are doing now, which only increases the risk of nuclear war. It is the stupidest thing I've seen my country ever do in my not that short lifetime. It makes Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan look like campaigns of Clausewitzian genius.

Ray's avatar

Indeed, they were a week or two away from making a nuclear bomb! For 47 years, really? Trump tore up the JCPOA, the best chance to prevent them, with IAEA inspectors on the ground. The blunder of 1953 is history, why cloak it with rhetoric of theocracy and authoritarianism, while cozying up to the gulf arab monarchies and other Islamic republics in the region!

Why, If it is such an evil, radical and terrorist regime, why don't they figure in the top 5 terrorist organisations in official us intelligence reports!

jbnn's avatar

If Trump would have explicitly warned the EU to NOT send ships they'd have send all the ships they have. Because modern politics is profoundly simple: if Trump says A we say B.

Unset's avatar

Fear not, Ursula is monitoring the situation very closely.

UnvaxxedCanadian's avatar

How soon everyone forgets Greenland. Though given how fast things spiraling these days it's forgivable.

You can't threaten and insult someone only to ask for help later, you don't think these beta males aren't savouring this moment?

The Causal Observer's avatar

"The Europeans are deliberately withholding vital equipment needed to keep international shipping lanes open."

I seem to remember that Iran has some pretty sophisticated torpedo's. Would they not attack these ships with these torpedoes and simply blow them out of the water?

Unwoke in Idaho's avatar

Does Iran have a navy anymore capable of that?

The Causal Observer's avatar

Torpedo launchers are rather small and can be used from very small vessels. Iran recently showed some video of having these boats in storage.

Ray's avatar

Stuck with the definition of an open water navy? Underwater drones, fast attack crafts in swarms, armed with anti-ship missiles, and submarines in shallow waters - hardly sounds like a proper navy, yes. But effectiveness in that theatre? Why did USS Abraham Lincoln battlegroup move away from there to standoff distance of over a thousand miles, and rendered ineffective? The northern coastline riddled with tunnels and caves that can launch drone swarms and anti-ship missiles. So close to shore, in such a narrow strait, that heavy artillery guns could do the job, or atleast saturate and distract. Mines are only one of many obstacles. Mine sweeper/hunter, amphibious troops landing craft, any enemy vessel would be taken out promptly.

von Manstein's avatar

No -- Iran's navy is completely obliterated, just like their nuclear program was "completely obliterated" last summer. Just like their missile capability is completely gone, and they have no military at all anymore.

Obviously it's fairies which continue lobbing missiles and drones, and this time the nuclear program will REALLY be obliterated, promise! Maybe water sprites will launch the torpedoes. We're W I N N I N G!!

Bima's avatar

Is it wrong to think that Mr Trump may use this to support a withdrawal from NATO?

Dugz's avatar

I think that is very possible, if not the intent.

The Causal Observer's avatar

Or he could simply block oil & NG shipments to countries not helping out.

Gavin Longmuir's avatar

Something which tends to get overlooked -- traffic through the Straits of Hormuz goes both ways. Hydrocarbon tankers move out, taking the oil needed by China, Japan, Korea and the NGL needed by Europe, while cargo ships come in bringing essential supplies such as food. Mines can't tell if a ship is taking oil to the Great Satan or food to Iran ... which makes mines a rather two-edged sword for Iran. Perhaps President Trump's talk about minesweepers is a goad to the mullahs to throw him in the briar patch?

Further, Iran mining Hormuz would have similar negative effects on the Sunni Arab nations on the south side of the Arabian Gulf. It is quite probable those nations are quietly planning what they are going to do to Iran when the US finishes bombing Iran's military and walks away.

posa's avatar

I have an idea: How about the intrepid Israelis send their forces to mine sweep and lead a ground assault to open Hormuz?

Wait. Oh yeah. I forgot. The IDF is only good for targeting helpless civilians so Israel can steal their land.

Col Sanchez's avatar

We read the exact same retort often in the UK's Daily Mail. Reading between the lines its the old trope telled by the masses for centuries "its the Jews fault" ! If only Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthis had been "more understanding" towards Israel and the Jews more "responsive all would be well.. From a US perspective its not as if you have not "stolen" New Mexico, Texas or Puerto Rico for starters yet your clear fixation on the Jews shows your ignorance as a full time bigot

posa's avatar

10/7 was a false flag. For years Israel made sure funding flowed to Hamas. This is well documented. Furthermore, Mossad and Shinbet had the blueprint for the attack at least a year in advance. They did nothing to disperse training in Gaza for the attack. And even as Hamas was gathering a small army at the Wall for a week, the IDF was ordered to vacate the point of attack leaving an easy security breach.

The false flag provided a cover to initiate a long desired Genocide for Land policy (Lebensraum + Final solution all in one)

Knesset members have been demanding an investigation based on the outline above.

"Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, who has previously pledged not to cooperate with Kallner’s commission, accused Netanyahu of “running away” from responsibility for the failures of October 7.

“He is evading responsibility for the suitcases of dollars from Qatar,” which were for years transferred with Netanyahu’s approval to Hamas in Gaza, ostensibly to allow it to effectively govern. “He is fleeing from responsibility for the fact that the head of the Shin Bet warned him that Hamas was using the money to buy weapons, and he is fleeing from responsibility for the fact that the [IDF] chief of staff warned him weeks before the disaster that disaster was on the way; that the intelligence agencies warned him that a disaster was coming,” Lapid told the Knesset."

Times Of Israel,24Dec 2025

Ray's avatar

A few young Israeli women soldiers on duty in those kibbutz on the Gaza border were furious when their reports on the days preceding 10/7 on enemy activity on the other side were dismissed by the leadership. A large percentage of the Jewish casualties was later attributed to friendly fire, Israeli tanks and helicopter gunships firing indiscriminately at the buildings that had people from both sides. This was reported extensively in the Haaretz. Look up their Hannibal doctrine, the same played out in their hostage rescue farce!

posa's avatar

Totally Ray. Spot on. 10/7 was a clumsy, obvious false flag attack designed to stampede the Israeli population into a genocidal frenzy and rationalize the genocide to the rest of the world.