Ursula Von Der Leyen, the President of the European Commission has proposed that Europe increase its defense spending by 1.5% GDP over the average 2.0% GDP European countries are currently spending on defense.
Do let us know when europeans will develop adequate satellite recon or AWACS coverage.
I have heard that they hope to get a Starlink replacement as soon as 2030.
Then there is the question of who in their right mind would fight for europe? I don't exactly see europeans (biggest weenies on the planet!) flocking into the army, much less volunteering to get killed in Ukraine. Those who were volunteering tended to be a bit...prickly (read my lips) for european sensibilities.
Whole thing reminds me of the Austro-Hungarian fiascos in Serbia in 1914-15. The Austrian soldiers were "used to sleeping in beds" as someone put it.
Actually, I meant that gvien that the new immigrants already in those countries are from the Middle East, they probably would refuse to fight Russians who have helped their home countries so much.
BTW, you have never really lived, until you have gone shooting with europeans. Comedy Gold.
They thought *I* was practically Rambo, and I am a cat! Basically, I am not scared of firearms, I don't get some frisson of forbidden excitement over the things, not afraid that Mommy will punish me for being a bad little boy playing with naughty toys.
At the moment, the EU-Europeans are just throwing a hissy fit. The latest I heard was Norwegians were prepared to transfer the windfall-profits due to costlier gas price to Ukraine.
I still remember Danes who experienced WW2 telling me how enthusiastic they felt about supporting the Finns in their fight vs the Soviets in the winter 39/40. So they moved a lot of material there. Half a year later, the Danes (and Norwegians) were themselves gobbled up by the Germans. They felt regretful thereafter.
Not that Danes and Norwegians were alone - French and British were caught up in Finnland too. The British and French were apparently even thinking of bombing Soviet oil terminals in the Caspian in March 1940. Just a month before WW2 started in real with Operation Weserübung.
Reaching parity with Russia would take 20 years even if there was 100% political will, funding, cultural unity and political harmony. None of these factors exist. Europe is riven by internal divisions both within its states and between them. The population despises its elites and is in the process of purging them. Europe is broke, lacks resources, critically lacks energy, and has spent the last 40 years destroying its own industrial base. Its best defence against (extremely hypothetical) Russian aggression is that modern Europe isn’t worth conquering.
Well to me it looks like this is the reason for the Islamic conquest of Europe that’s happening, unbeknownst to the Europeans, now. Conspiracy theory or reality, submitted for your approval, welcome to the twilight zone.
Initially, Americans were very much involved in creating the EU - Marshall plan and everything. After all, it was critically important to reestablish German industry power-house, and that could only happen with the oversight via NATO and EU. Since no one would have trusted Germans in late 1940s without oversight.
However, by the 1960s/1970s, the French remodelled EU to screw the US. Remember those French cruisers DeGaulle wanted to send to ship gold back to France in the late 1960s?
I hear all the time from European politicians and media that if Putin 'succeeds' in Ukraine (whatever that means) the rest of Europe will fall like a row of dominoes.
Zelensky says Putin will then move on across the Atlantic.
But I never hear much about Putin's actual plans for ruling Europe after the dominoes have fallen.
I guess they must involve a lot of vodka and chess in Paris and London, but more details would be useful.
Putin actually repeatedly stated that they don't even want Western Ukraine, never mind farther lands, he said verbatim, "Why would we want people who hate us?"Moreover, Putin stated that if Poland, etc., want to claim their historic lands in Western Ukraine, Russia won't object.
Russia boasts a fleet of some fifteen air-to-air refuelling aircraft. So if Russia plans to conquer europe, they apparently anticipate doing so without any air support.
n.b. the United States alone has several hundred such aircraft. Hell great britain has more air-to-air refueling aircraft than does Russia.
Of course, at the same time, we are regularly assured that Russia is on the brink of collapse, as well as ready to ride into europe, just because. Also, we all know that Putin is an insane megalomaniac, but that he never would resort to nuclear weapons, even if cornered.
The problem for Russia (and Europe) is the russofobia in eastern Europe. If western Europe can't or won't deal with it, than Russia itself has to - "special operation" in the Baltic etc.
Is it possible that the best defense for Europe would be to work hard at creating friendly inter-dependent commercial & cultural relationships with Russia? Maybe with China too, while they are at it? Acting aggressively towards one's neighbors, as the Euros do, is not likely to end well.
I am amazed by the determination of the EU and most European leaders to throw Europe into the abyss. Because this proposal for a huge increase in military spending has the makings of a suicide. Probably one of the causes of this warlike enthusiasm is also the masking of the defeat that they are actually suffering in the war with Russia through Ukraine. It is true that it is difficult, after 3 years of huge propaganda of victory, to admit defeat.
A way better option would be to get rid of the globalists and paid off politicians so we could keep our money and stop all the constant wars and flooding of Europe with so called migrants.. They can go finance and fight their own crap and stop exploiting the world and it's people.. Pshyco's
Macron speaks harshly, but he cannot back up his words with real force. This is very dangerous nonsense. He really angers the Russians - they are already itching to punch him in his insolent face. Is he a fool or a madman?
Why can't the west just do business with Russia, China, and others? It appears that perhaps Russia does want to get along with Europe and do business that would benefit both. And a neutral Ukraine in between the 2 would profit as well.
Why did NATO think it important to take Ukraine into their club? Do they really think that Russia is planning on taking Europe? It seems to me that they just want to sell stuff to the EU, especially natural gas and other fuels. The US tried to stop the construction of Nord Stream pipelines, and then when the couldn't - they just blew it up. The image of the German leader sitting beside Joe Biden as he says there will be an end to Nord Stream is priceless. It might come to be a significant image; akin to PM Chamberlain waving around a piece of paper.
And a US military campaign against China? How could they, or most anyone, go to war with a country that supplies so much to themselves. Everything from plastic KFS to medical PPE and more. It seems to me that they would first have to build themselves factories to supply them with most of what they get from China, or source stuff from other countries. And to eliminate any political interference from China in their own countries, including my own Canada.
I think western countries did themselves major harm by bringing in too many immigrants, illegally anyways. I can't imagine why they did that. I think President Trump is doing something about that in the US. I seen a stat that last Feb there were around 190,000 illegals enter from the southern border. While this last Feb the numbers were around 9,000. And Joe Biden said he couldn't do anything about illegal immigration, I seem to remember.
In 50 years I'm sure historians will have a hard time explaining the reasoning behind all this. I'm sure they will have a dim view of what the west/US has done to Ukraine.
I have this thought in the back of my brain cell that all this is to get ready for some kind of alien invasion, or somthing else looming ahead of us that requires this form of seemingly idiotic processes.
But it is all above my pay grade, as they say. I spent 23 years in the Canadian Army as a tank/recce Soldier so I understand a bit about the military adventure going on in Ukraine. Still there have been a lot of new weapons and tactics then when I was in. I'm not as familiar with international politics. As shown by my initial sentence above.
These substack articles do inform me of a lot of stuff and more folks should be reading them as opposed to the main stream media types that get paid to publish what they're told to publish.
Well it is true that all European nations cut defence spending too far after 1991, and though the UK and France managed to maintain some limited out of area capability, this was predicated on fighting sand box wars, not injecting military force against a first class opponent with air cover/defence. And you cannot simply spend money to make up the deficit, it requires an industrial base alongside enough of a military cadre to build larger forces. It also requires an ISR capability way beyond that which Europe and any nation within it actually possesses or is likely ever to posses.
To my mind "Europe" is not at risk at all from Russia and even if it was, Russia would come to grief if it attacked - all it would take is half a million partisans armed with rifles. That does not cost a trillion dollars and pretty well already exists.
So from my perspective this is "Europe" finally waking up to the fact that if they want to carry weight in the world, then they need a big stick. And of course there never was a crisis real or imagined that the EU did not use to accrete more power to itself.
Finally it actually suits the MAGA agenda to have Europe and Russia mutually antagonistic, even at war, as long as the USA does not get dragged in. The insanity of European leaders might well be explainable by the fact they are all badly compromised in some way, and are actually doing the USA's bidding here? Though this is a bit of a stretch when you follow the media this side of the pond and the visceral animosity to Trump, his team and his agenda.
The European Union is a misnomer. There is no unity among those countries. Each operates on their own agenda. NATO defense contributions are sporadic and internal defense capabilities will never be able to unite in a common goal. Most of these countries just sat and watched Russia, China & the USA continuously build their defense capabilities over the last 50 years. Leadership and planning to protect their sovereignty was void of direction and purpose. Now they are in a really tough position without the USA.
What would Russia gain from the Baltics. There is only old people left and the rest has one of the lowest fertility rates on earth. Its a dying civilization. Nobody wants it.
They are indeed weak but one of the biggest haters of Russia. I would be one thing to conquer the land but then one would have to manage it. I don't think the Russians would want it, nobody in their right mind would.
There's 27 different countries in the EU, and by my count they speak at least 18 different languages. That should make communications interesting in a combined military force.
I will also be interesting to watch how the market reacts to the debt that the EU will try to sell in order to finance their empire's new military. US Treasuries are currently selling at just under 5% and yet they're no longer seen as a safe investment (by the rest of the world) due to inflation. What rate the EU will have to offer to sell theirs is unknown. Likely what will happen is that the debt won't be purchased by foreign companies and central banks, but only by Europeans buying their own debt. A debt spiral in other words.
In the 20th century, the Germans commanded Europe in German. In the 19th century, the French commander Europe in French. There were no big problems. Even the Russian nobles all spoke French fluently. In Leo Tolstoy's novel "War and Peace" there are entire pages written in French. And the Russian tsars were mostly Germans and spoke German fluently.
I have no doubt that there are many in Europe who are fluent in more than one language. Is it your view that Europe will find hundreds of thousands of such people to fill out the ranks of their new military?
A quick note. Today, in the Ukrainian military, they even have communication problems between Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking soldiers. That's despite the similarity in languages.
I do not know where you live, but the system does not work the way you think. All soldiers do not need to know any foreign language. For normal communication, it is enough to find staff officers who speak a foreign language.
By the way, Ukrainians all know Russian perfectly well. All the problems are due to their nationalism. They specifically refuse to speak Russian. No one in Europe would do such nonsense.
According to Armstrong, the capital currently flees the EU for the US, not that I believe him like the Gospel, but he was right about many things many times in the past.
I've been following the recent movement of huge quantities of gold from London to the US. Lot's of financial pundits are commenting on it, as the amount that's been moved is unprecedented. Gold is a specialized market and very opaque as well, so exactly what precipitated the move isn't clear. However no one that I've heard is suggesting they're moving it to safety in case of war in Europe.
The market in gold is almost entirely on paper. These are futures contracts and they are typically rolled over into a new contract when they expire. Hardly anyone ever actually takes possession of the gold that the contract is based on. But now it seems that people are taking the gold. Moreover the governments of China and India have been buying gold in enormous quantities, hundreds of tons each.
When you have gold in the vault, no one can take it from you. When you're holding dollars or Euros, they can be frozen at any time. Same with Treasury bills.
What I find fishy about this gold frenzy is the fact that so many people forget/don't know Roosevelt confiscated gold from Americans in 1933 for "hoarding" - meaning bought it at bottom prices, and raised prices immediately. Given the totally unnatural situation now with Costco & Walmart @ blown-up prices selling gold bars, but only electronically (an audit trail), and you can't buy it in person, and you can't return it back, makes me think dark thoughts of some grift à la Roosevelt afoot, because if you "force" people into frenzy to buy gold @crazy prices, then outlaw & confiscate it, you at once eliminate tons of cash from private hands, and the US gov complained about tons of Covid cash out.
There was a money reform in the USSR in 1960s, when the government decided it was too much cash people had on-hand, so they changed the banknotes - issuing brand new/different, abolishing old on the spot, and only what people kept in the bank was exchanged 1:1, but whatever you had in your proverbial "mattress" - went poof. In the 1990s, there was a totally different, secret "reform," when whatever cash you got on hand, you kept, but whatever you kept in the bank, was frozen, and when "unfrozen," an amount, let's say equal to a full price of a car was turned into the cost of a loaf of bread.
I guess my point is, I do get it - gold is always tangible vs. the paper money, but given the history, in the US or the USSR, the "house" always wins, be it the gold - confiscate-able , be it the cash -seizable or devaluable, and don't even get me started on the electronic money, the "imaginary" money, nothing more or less :-)
The EU institutions have spend years in boosting individualism and suppressing any patriotic feelings, merging industries across nation boundaries.
Now they will reap what they sowed.
No military, no patriotism inside companies, nothing. Its all empty.
And now Ursula thinks that just allocating some money will solve the problem. Typical political thinking.
I only disagree in one aspect: This money will be good for the bottom line of many companies. It just won't produce military hardware. It will also speed up inflation.
One last item: AEGIS onshore in Europe, would be a huge waste of money. They will be taken out in the first 10 minutes of a conflict.
You have hit on the one of the real issues. NATO has no theater wide air defense. Even with the most skillful application of that new trillion dollar (borrowed) defense budget, getting a working, reliable theater air defense starting from scratch takes years. And nothing about the Europeans makes me think that their new found trillion dollar defense budget will be skillfully applied.
No question that the EU -- the out of control bureaucracy pretending it controls the fate of over 30 member states -- is blowing smoke (posturing) about financing hundreds of billions to fund the lost proxy war on Russia in Ukraine without Uncle Sam's "backup" (not to mention some member states' alarm). Add to this the stuff Trump advisers seem to be saying -- showing they don't realize Russia's capabilities or where Russia is coming from -- about pressuring Russia with peacekeeper/ceasefire schemes that Russia won't and doesn't need to consider. The Trumpers could be sending up flak to temporarily stall until preparing with the Russians for when "reality" sets in, OR they still don't understand that Russia will win and set the terms for ending the conflict. If they're not really talking seriously to the Russkies thinking somehow they have the "upper hand," Putin will simply push on, forcing the issue as Russia doesn't need the U.S. to help bring an end to the war the U.S. may have in mind. IMO, it's still not clear that the diplomatically inexperienced Trumpers are sufficiently aware of how to help bring about (as opposed to continue to prevent) a more lasting peace to Europe including Russia. Time will tell!
Thank you for the assessment. I would think it is rather a friendly one...
As far as Germany is concerned the Merz government will wreck civil society.
On the communal i.e. federal level German towns and cities already are in need of at least 600B Euros.
They talk about infrastructure.
What infrastructure?
Not a word is uttered about the demise of German railway systems.
What about a Europe-wide high-velocity train system?
German health care is ailing. Already during Covid year #1 - very interestingly - the association of German hospital directors agreed on a reduction of capacities. Because Covid had NOT faced them with unusual overall challenges.
All the while annual fees are rising and rising.
Education will implode at some point.
The cultural institutions likewise.
If things go badly German steel crisis could cause a loss of 55k jobs, 5B in GDP and 16B in production value.
Are they seriously intending to remedy this via tanks? And fighter planes? And artillery? Which eventually nobody will buy because they are inadequate and inferior to their rivals?
How sick is this?
Society is falling apart and even the so-called LEFT PARTY voted in favour in the 2nd chamber on Friday (where the state governments are represented). Why? Because their governments were bought off with miniscule amounts like 1B promises.
This will find a very horrible ending - which will occure slowly at first. And no real war needed for this. The Russians want as much distance between themselve and this Europe which essentially has been wreaking havoc on the world for over 500 years. Europeans are a bit like the Spaceballs...
For the first time since 1945 you have no opposition coming from the major social strata against any of this.
Fascinating. It seems to me that the 1 Trillion Euro plan is a scam to try and bail out the auto industry which is in bad shape. I don't think it is amounts to a serious effort to improve Germany's defense capability, only that it would boost up its spending outlays above 2% while achieving nothing in particular. As I have consistently pointed out, there is no plan for the defense sector (other than greed). What I don't grasp is why the German people support this nonsense.
I fully agree with "scam". To your question why no resistance:
1) Russophobia. Until 2,5 years ago I was rejecting this argument. I said we do not have 1941 any more. Well I was wrong. Regarding Russians as subhumans, incompetent, brutes etc. has become the norm in public space. It is a very twisted logic which General Zhukov with great foresight pointed out in 1945: "We liberated them now they will hate us for it."
Europe has been living for 500 years with this delusion being the centre of the world. Especially intellectual culture is infected by this feeling of supremacy. Now that Russia drew a red line suddenly the true colour of German elites comes to light. Now in 80 years its position is in question for the first time and the elites at least feel - (they might not yet rationally understand due to utter incompetence) - that something is seriously wrong and they lash out against those who they have been looking down onto, for centuries in fact.
This is no new mindset. Just think back at the arrogance of German nuclear scientists in WWII. A subject which I have closely studied. They really were so full of themselves that they were convinced nobody could build a nuke if they had failed. Even after Truman´s radio speech for a day they doubted Hiroshima. This is rooted in the rise of Germany as an imperial power due to three wars against Austria, Denmark and France under Bismarck. "Weimar" - the more "civilised" successor-version - has been regarded thereof as the apex of intellectual excellency of our civilisation. Which has turned "Weimar" into one of the most over-emphasized and over-estimated periods in history. I doubt there is any other topic in German history that has been covered as monotonously, one-sidedly and repetitively in scholarship. In school Weimar is the Holy Grail. And to this day this tradition has remained part of a German elite pride.
2) Total misinformation on Ukraine. I mean 99% (only blogs and 1 or 2 tiny daily papers remain). It is impossible to tell the truth here about Ukraine´s Nazis, about their war crimes, about the true conduct of the war by all sides, the causes, or even just question such topics as Bucha, or the ICC case against Putin. Respected politicians and public female figures who organized the first peace protest in 2023 were smeared as "Putin cunts" and "bitches" by such outlets as DER SPIEGEL. If you suggest that Putin is not a Hitler you are dencounced as a Putin-puppet on national TV shows. On a daily basis the media lie, insult, disinform. 24/7. As does btw the German government and its branches, e.g. via omitting certain details in readouts about telephone calls between Scholz and Putin. The situation is way worse than in the US. I get all my information from there. In Germany in 1942 it was possible to read Russian papers.
Not today. If you disagree today and want to express a contradicting opinion as a journalist or as a university teacher you are out. If you don´t budge you get fired. We have had several court cases where judges had to force the institutions to take back the illegal firing. Because you cannot just fire someone for a different opinion. However the people eventually would leave their jobs because their colleagues were literally hating them. People who had been working together for years before. These might be extreme examples. But the underlying atmosphere of censorship, self-censorship, fear is so ultimate that in public it is neglected and yet everybody abides by it. I myself have shelved all projects involving Russia. Since 2022 I assume most city halls in the country have a Ukrainian flag up. My own alma mater was illuminated by blue-yellow lights during the night for 2 years. (I don´t know if they still do or if electricity bills forbid this act of "solidarity" by now). On Febr. 24th in the city of Hamburg the entire public was pausing to keep one minute of silence, public transport was stopping. Radio stations were playing the Ukrainian anthem.
At the same time the Ukrainian representative to Hamburg, Iryna Tybinka, in 2022 had complained that Ukrainian refugee children had to attend classes together with non-European children, i.e. non-whites. It would upset their "cultural development." She was criticizing the German educational system as not good enough keeping back the genius Ukrainian youth that had fled and come here to continue with their studies. Such stories are just the tip of the iceberg. (another: Ukrainian Nazis have become best friends of Nazi-hating German GREENS.)
3) This concerns almost the entirety of all academia of any area. CERN fired its Russian scientists, Russian PhDs could not finish their studies and had to leave. Russian musicians or conductors who did not denounce Putin or the war left their orchestras. No German-Russian organisations any more.
Add to that 30-40% of the population. To varying degrees. Most people do not have the luxury of time to question the MSM. So they live with the PR. Depending on how recalcitrant they are they tend to question or not question the government line. But as of now German media see themselves as amplifiers of the government and have turned buddies with secret intelligence and the armed forces.
Just yesterday one major daily brought a piece about the lack of housing. After 5 sentences the article argued with great empathy that the Scholz government could not meet the intended target of annual 400k new apartments because of the "Russian war of aggression against Ukraine". So it again was Putin´s fault. However detached it will find its way into the proper narrative.
If we have one single reason that there is no hot war yet in Europe, it´s Russia´s WMDs.
Things have happened which I did not consider possible pre 2022. With the budget issues which you have covered we reach a new level of material self-destruction, and I seriously fear for the fabric of this society. To paraphrase a Hollywod comedy by the Coen brothers: If Germany is a diamond in the raw, arms manufacturers and the ruling groups will take the diamond and leave behind the raw. Cynism is all we have left.
Do let us know when europeans will develop adequate satellite recon or AWACS coverage.
I have heard that they hope to get a Starlink replacement as soon as 2030.
Then there is the question of who in their right mind would fight for europe? I don't exactly see europeans (biggest weenies on the planet!) flocking into the army, much less volunteering to get killed in Ukraine. Those who were volunteering tended to be a bit...prickly (read my lips) for european sensibilities.
Whole thing reminds me of the Austro-Hungarian fiascos in Serbia in 1914-15. The Austrian soldiers were "used to sleeping in beds" as someone put it.
Good point. I've thought about this as well but from the immigration angle - I don't think immigrants are going to go fight Russians either.
I can see offering residency in exchange for enlistment, but is that really the way to get motivated troops?
Actually, I meant that gvien that the new immigrants already in those countries are from the Middle East, they probably would refuse to fight Russians who have helped their home countries so much.
BTW, you have never really lived, until you have gone shooting with europeans. Comedy Gold.
They thought *I* was practically Rambo, and I am a cat! Basically, I am not scared of firearms, I don't get some frisson of forbidden excitement over the things, not afraid that Mommy will punish me for being a bad little boy playing with naughty toys.
At the moment, the EU-Europeans are just throwing a hissy fit. The latest I heard was Norwegians were prepared to transfer the windfall-profits due to costlier gas price to Ukraine.
I still remember Danes who experienced WW2 telling me how enthusiastic they felt about supporting the Finns in their fight vs the Soviets in the winter 39/40. So they moved a lot of material there. Half a year later, the Danes (and Norwegians) were themselves gobbled up by the Germans. They felt regretful thereafter.
Not that Danes and Norwegians were alone - French and British were caught up in Finnland too. The British and French were apparently even thinking of bombing Soviet oil terminals in the Caspian in March 1940. Just a month before WW2 started in real with Operation Weserübung.
A bit abdication of rational thinking, I think.
Reaching parity with Russia would take 20 years even if there was 100% political will, funding, cultural unity and political harmony. None of these factors exist. Europe is riven by internal divisions both within its states and between them. The population despises its elites and is in the process of purging them. Europe is broke, lacks resources, critically lacks energy, and has spent the last 40 years destroying its own industrial base. Its best defence against (extremely hypothetical) Russian aggression is that modern Europe isn’t worth conquering.
Why would anyone bother to conquer an old folks home for geriatric metrosexuals?
Sometimes wars start after insults. Moreover, there are already enough of them
If Russia were going to start a war, it has plenty of casus belli already.
Three years ago, many people didn't believe it either. Then one click and go
Not sure what you are saying, here.
I'm saying that the French don't know how to keep their mouths shut. And at one point they might get their teeth knocked out.
Then Trump should go to war with Zelensky, who used profanities on JD Vance under the breath in his language, during the White House reception:-)
If necessary, Trump will start a war with Zelensky. There is nothing improbable about this.
Doubt.
In fact, Trump has already started a war with Zelensky.
Well to me it looks like this is the reason for the Islamic conquest of Europe that’s happening, unbeknownst to the Europeans, now. Conspiracy theory or reality, submitted for your approval, welcome to the twilight zone.
Trump opined that the EU was created to screw America, it would appear payback is in the the decision tree.
Initially, Americans were very much involved in creating the EU - Marshall plan and everything. After all, it was critically important to reestablish German industry power-house, and that could only happen with the oversight via NATO and EU. Since no one would have trusted Germans in late 1940s without oversight.
However, by the 1960s/1970s, the French remodelled EU to screw the US. Remember those French cruisers DeGaulle wanted to send to ship gold back to France in the late 1960s?
I hear all the time from European politicians and media that if Putin 'succeeds' in Ukraine (whatever that means) the rest of Europe will fall like a row of dominoes.
Zelensky says Putin will then move on across the Atlantic.
But I never hear much about Putin's actual plans for ruling Europe after the dominoes have fallen.
I guess they must involve a lot of vodka and chess in Paris and London, but more details would be useful.
Putin actually repeatedly stated that they don't even want Western Ukraine, never mind farther lands, he said verbatim, "Why would we want people who hate us?"Moreover, Putin stated that if Poland, etc., want to claim their historic lands in Western Ukraine, Russia won't object.
Russia boasts a fleet of some fifteen air-to-air refuelling aircraft. So if Russia plans to conquer europe, they apparently anticipate doing so without any air support.
n.b. the United States alone has several hundred such aircraft. Hell great britain has more air-to-air refueling aircraft than does Russia.
Of course, at the same time, we are regularly assured that Russia is on the brink of collapse, as well as ready to ride into europe, just because. Also, we all know that Putin is an insane megalomaniac, but that he never would resort to nuclear weapons, even if cornered.
Just a quibble but the U.K. has only ten air tankers. They are all of a type that can service a shrinking percentage of their air fleet.
Thanks! My memory may be faulty or out of date.
The problem for Russia (and Europe) is the russofobia in eastern Europe. If western Europe can't or won't deal with it, than Russia itself has to - "special operation" in the Baltic etc.
Is it possible that the best defense for Europe would be to work hard at creating friendly inter-dependent commercial & cultural relationships with Russia? Maybe with China too, while they are at it? Acting aggressively towards one's neighbors, as the Euros do, is not likely to end well.
Yes - regime change in Europe. Trump and Putin in sync.
I am amazed by the determination of the EU and most European leaders to throw Europe into the abyss. Because this proposal for a huge increase in military spending has the makings of a suicide. Probably one of the causes of this warlike enthusiasm is also the masking of the defeat that they are actually suffering in the war with Russia through Ukraine. It is true that it is difficult, after 3 years of huge propaganda of victory, to admit defeat.
A way better option would be to get rid of the globalists and paid off politicians so we could keep our money and stop all the constant wars and flooding of Europe with so called migrants.. They can go finance and fight their own crap and stop exploiting the world and it's people.. Pshyco's
Macron speaks harshly, but he cannot back up his words with real force. This is very dangerous nonsense. He really angers the Russians - they are already itching to punch him in his insolent face. Is he a fool or a madman?
I often wonder "why can't we all just get along".
Why can't the west just do business with Russia, China, and others? It appears that perhaps Russia does want to get along with Europe and do business that would benefit both. And a neutral Ukraine in between the 2 would profit as well.
Why did NATO think it important to take Ukraine into their club? Do they really think that Russia is planning on taking Europe? It seems to me that they just want to sell stuff to the EU, especially natural gas and other fuels. The US tried to stop the construction of Nord Stream pipelines, and then when the couldn't - they just blew it up. The image of the German leader sitting beside Joe Biden as he says there will be an end to Nord Stream is priceless. It might come to be a significant image; akin to PM Chamberlain waving around a piece of paper.
And a US military campaign against China? How could they, or most anyone, go to war with a country that supplies so much to themselves. Everything from plastic KFS to medical PPE and more. It seems to me that they would first have to build themselves factories to supply them with most of what they get from China, or source stuff from other countries. And to eliminate any political interference from China in their own countries, including my own Canada.
I think western countries did themselves major harm by bringing in too many immigrants, illegally anyways. I can't imagine why they did that. I think President Trump is doing something about that in the US. I seen a stat that last Feb there were around 190,000 illegals enter from the southern border. While this last Feb the numbers were around 9,000. And Joe Biden said he couldn't do anything about illegal immigration, I seem to remember.
In 50 years I'm sure historians will have a hard time explaining the reasoning behind all this. I'm sure they will have a dim view of what the west/US has done to Ukraine.
I have this thought in the back of my brain cell that all this is to get ready for some kind of alien invasion, or somthing else looming ahead of us that requires this form of seemingly idiotic processes.
But it is all above my pay grade, as they say. I spent 23 years in the Canadian Army as a tank/recce Soldier so I understand a bit about the military adventure going on in Ukraine. Still there have been a lot of new weapons and tactics then when I was in. I'm not as familiar with international politics. As shown by my initial sentence above.
These substack articles do inform me of a lot of stuff and more folks should be reading them as opposed to the main stream media types that get paid to publish what they're told to publish.
Thanks for another great post Mr Bryen.
"I often wonder "why can't we all just get along"."
A Scary Enemy is necessary at all times.
* To provide a reason why we can't have nice things.
* To unify factions that otherwise have nothing in common but their enemies.
* To provide a pretext for crackdowns on dissent.
Well it is true that all European nations cut defence spending too far after 1991, and though the UK and France managed to maintain some limited out of area capability, this was predicated on fighting sand box wars, not injecting military force against a first class opponent with air cover/defence. And you cannot simply spend money to make up the deficit, it requires an industrial base alongside enough of a military cadre to build larger forces. It also requires an ISR capability way beyond that which Europe and any nation within it actually possesses or is likely ever to posses.
To my mind "Europe" is not at risk at all from Russia and even if it was, Russia would come to grief if it attacked - all it would take is half a million partisans armed with rifles. That does not cost a trillion dollars and pretty well already exists.
So from my perspective this is "Europe" finally waking up to the fact that if they want to carry weight in the world, then they need a big stick. And of course there never was a crisis real or imagined that the EU did not use to accrete more power to itself.
Finally it actually suits the MAGA agenda to have Europe and Russia mutually antagonistic, even at war, as long as the USA does not get dragged in. The insanity of European leaders might well be explainable by the fact they are all badly compromised in some way, and are actually doing the USA's bidding here? Though this is a bit of a stretch when you follow the media this side of the pond and the visceral animosity to Trump, his team and his agenda.
The European Union is a misnomer. There is no unity among those countries. Each operates on their own agenda. NATO defense contributions are sporadic and internal defense capabilities will never be able to unite in a common goal. Most of these countries just sat and watched Russia, China & the USA continuously build their defense capabilities over the last 50 years. Leadership and planning to protect their sovereignty was void of direction and purpose. Now they are in a really tough position without the USA.
Hello, great article. I addressed it a few days ago from a slightly different angle:
https://finnandreen.substack.com/p/the-eu-wants-to-cynically-use-war
Nice site. Thanks.
IF Russia were to make a move on the Baltic States, how do you think that would play out in terms of a European response?
Mick no military response but a very angry news conference.
Assuming that the Americans persist in their current desire to avoid foreign entanglements.
What would Russia gain from the Baltics. There is only old people left and the rest has one of the lowest fertility rates on earth. Its a dying civilization. Nobody wants it.
There’s a tiny sliver of Russia on the northern tip of Poland. Retaking the Baltics would connect them to it and, of course, why not? They’re weak.
They are indeed weak but one of the biggest haters of Russia. I would be one thing to conquer the land but then one would have to manage it. I don't think the Russians would want it, nobody in their right mind would.
There's 27 different countries in the EU, and by my count they speak at least 18 different languages. That should make communications interesting in a combined military force.
I will also be interesting to watch how the market reacts to the debt that the EU will try to sell in order to finance their empire's new military. US Treasuries are currently selling at just under 5% and yet they're no longer seen as a safe investment (by the rest of the world) due to inflation. What rate the EU will have to offer to sell theirs is unknown. Likely what will happen is that the debt won't be purchased by foreign companies and central banks, but only by Europeans buying their own debt. A debt spiral in other words.
In the 20th century, the Germans commanded Europe in German. In the 19th century, the French commander Europe in French. There were no big problems. Even the Russian nobles all spoke French fluently. In Leo Tolstoy's novel "War and Peace" there are entire pages written in French. And the Russian tsars were mostly Germans and spoke German fluently.
I have no doubt that there are many in Europe who are fluent in more than one language. Is it your view that Europe will find hundreds of thousands of such people to fill out the ranks of their new military?
A quick note. Today, in the Ukrainian military, they even have communication problems between Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking soldiers. That's despite the similarity in languages.
I do not know where you live, but the system does not work the way you think. All soldiers do not need to know any foreign language. For normal communication, it is enough to find staff officers who speak a foreign language.
By the way, Ukrainians all know Russian perfectly well. All the problems are due to their nationalism. They specifically refuse to speak Russian. No one in Europe would do such nonsense.
According to Armstrong, the capital currently flees the EU for the US, not that I believe him like the Gospel, but he was right about many things many times in the past.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/london-offloading-gold-to-new-york/?awt_a=1JPVU&awt_l=Bddyi&awt_m=8gEy6w0XbGqvxrVU
I've been following the recent movement of huge quantities of gold from London to the US. Lot's of financial pundits are commenting on it, as the amount that's been moved is unprecedented. Gold is a specialized market and very opaque as well, so exactly what precipitated the move isn't clear. However no one that I've heard is suggesting they're moving it to safety in case of war in Europe.
The market in gold is almost entirely on paper. These are futures contracts and they are typically rolled over into a new contract when they expire. Hardly anyone ever actually takes possession of the gold that the contract is based on. But now it seems that people are taking the gold. Moreover the governments of China and India have been buying gold in enormous quantities, hundreds of tons each.
When you have gold in the vault, no one can take it from you. When you're holding dollars or Euros, they can be frozen at any time. Same with Treasury bills.
What I find fishy about this gold frenzy is the fact that so many people forget/don't know Roosevelt confiscated gold from Americans in 1933 for "hoarding" - meaning bought it at bottom prices, and raised prices immediately. Given the totally unnatural situation now with Costco & Walmart @ blown-up prices selling gold bars, but only electronically (an audit trail), and you can't buy it in person, and you can't return it back, makes me think dark thoughts of some grift à la Roosevelt afoot, because if you "force" people into frenzy to buy gold @crazy prices, then outlaw & confiscate it, you at once eliminate tons of cash from private hands, and the US gov complained about tons of Covid cash out.
There was a money reform in the USSR in 1960s, when the government decided it was too much cash people had on-hand, so they changed the banknotes - issuing brand new/different, abolishing old on the spot, and only what people kept in the bank was exchanged 1:1, but whatever you had in your proverbial "mattress" - went poof. In the 1990s, there was a totally different, secret "reform," when whatever cash you got on hand, you kept, but whatever you kept in the bank, was frozen, and when "unfrozen," an amount, let's say equal to a full price of a car was turned into the cost of a loaf of bread.
I guess my point is, I do get it - gold is always tangible vs. the paper money, but given the history, in the US or the USSR, the "house" always wins, be it the gold - confiscate-able , be it the cash -seizable or devaluable, and don't even get me started on the electronic money, the "imaginary" money, nothing more or less :-)
The EU institutions have spend years in boosting individualism and suppressing any patriotic feelings, merging industries across nation boundaries.
Now they will reap what they sowed.
No military, no patriotism inside companies, nothing. Its all empty.
And now Ursula thinks that just allocating some money will solve the problem. Typical political thinking.
I only disagree in one aspect: This money will be good for the bottom line of many companies. It just won't produce military hardware. It will also speed up inflation.
One last item: AEGIS onshore in Europe, would be a huge waste of money. They will be taken out in the first 10 minutes of a conflict.
The Causal Observer
You have hit on the one of the real issues. NATO has no theater wide air defense. Even with the most skillful application of that new trillion dollar (borrowed) defense budget, getting a working, reliable theater air defense starting from scratch takes years. And nothing about the Europeans makes me think that their new found trillion dollar defense budget will be skillfully applied.
No question that the EU -- the out of control bureaucracy pretending it controls the fate of over 30 member states -- is blowing smoke (posturing) about financing hundreds of billions to fund the lost proxy war on Russia in Ukraine without Uncle Sam's "backup" (not to mention some member states' alarm). Add to this the stuff Trump advisers seem to be saying -- showing they don't realize Russia's capabilities or where Russia is coming from -- about pressuring Russia with peacekeeper/ceasefire schemes that Russia won't and doesn't need to consider. The Trumpers could be sending up flak to temporarily stall until preparing with the Russians for when "reality" sets in, OR they still don't understand that Russia will win and set the terms for ending the conflict. If they're not really talking seriously to the Russkies thinking somehow they have the "upper hand," Putin will simply push on, forcing the issue as Russia doesn't need the U.S. to help bring an end to the war the U.S. may have in mind. IMO, it's still not clear that the diplomatically inexperienced Trumpers are sufficiently aware of how to help bring about (as opposed to continue to prevent) a more lasting peace to Europe including Russia. Time will tell!
Thank you for the assessment. I would think it is rather a friendly one...
As far as Germany is concerned the Merz government will wreck civil society.
On the communal i.e. federal level German towns and cities already are in need of at least 600B Euros.
They talk about infrastructure.
What infrastructure?
Not a word is uttered about the demise of German railway systems.
What about a Europe-wide high-velocity train system?
German health care is ailing. Already during Covid year #1 - very interestingly - the association of German hospital directors agreed on a reduction of capacities. Because Covid had NOT faced them with unusual overall challenges.
All the while annual fees are rising and rising.
Education will implode at some point.
The cultural institutions likewise.
If things go badly German steel crisis could cause a loss of 55k jobs, 5B in GDP and 16B in production value.
Are they seriously intending to remedy this via tanks? And fighter planes? And artillery? Which eventually nobody will buy because they are inadequate and inferior to their rivals?
How sick is this?
Society is falling apart and even the so-called LEFT PARTY voted in favour in the 2nd chamber on Friday (where the state governments are represented). Why? Because their governments were bought off with miniscule amounts like 1B promises.
This will find a very horrible ending - which will occure slowly at first. And no real war needed for this. The Russians want as much distance between themselve and this Europe which essentially has been wreaking havoc on the world for over 500 years. Europeans are a bit like the Spaceballs...
For the first time since 1945 you have no opposition coming from the major social strata against any of this.
The term is called "Darkest hour"?
Well, this is dusk.
Fascinating. It seems to me that the 1 Trillion Euro plan is a scam to try and bail out the auto industry which is in bad shape. I don't think it is amounts to a serious effort to improve Germany's defense capability, only that it would boost up its spending outlays above 2% while achieving nothing in particular. As I have consistently pointed out, there is no plan for the defense sector (other than greed). What I don't grasp is why the German people support this nonsense.
Sorry for my very long answer:
I fully agree with "scam". To your question why no resistance:
1) Russophobia. Until 2,5 years ago I was rejecting this argument. I said we do not have 1941 any more. Well I was wrong. Regarding Russians as subhumans, incompetent, brutes etc. has become the norm in public space. It is a very twisted logic which General Zhukov with great foresight pointed out in 1945: "We liberated them now they will hate us for it."
Europe has been living for 500 years with this delusion being the centre of the world. Especially intellectual culture is infected by this feeling of supremacy. Now that Russia drew a red line suddenly the true colour of German elites comes to light. Now in 80 years its position is in question for the first time and the elites at least feel - (they might not yet rationally understand due to utter incompetence) - that something is seriously wrong and they lash out against those who they have been looking down onto, for centuries in fact.
This is no new mindset. Just think back at the arrogance of German nuclear scientists in WWII. A subject which I have closely studied. They really were so full of themselves that they were convinced nobody could build a nuke if they had failed. Even after Truman´s radio speech for a day they doubted Hiroshima. This is rooted in the rise of Germany as an imperial power due to three wars against Austria, Denmark and France under Bismarck. "Weimar" - the more "civilised" successor-version - has been regarded thereof as the apex of intellectual excellency of our civilisation. Which has turned "Weimar" into one of the most over-emphasized and over-estimated periods in history. I doubt there is any other topic in German history that has been covered as monotonously, one-sidedly and repetitively in scholarship. In school Weimar is the Holy Grail. And to this day this tradition has remained part of a German elite pride.
2) Total misinformation on Ukraine. I mean 99% (only blogs and 1 or 2 tiny daily papers remain). It is impossible to tell the truth here about Ukraine´s Nazis, about their war crimes, about the true conduct of the war by all sides, the causes, or even just question such topics as Bucha, or the ICC case against Putin. Respected politicians and public female figures who organized the first peace protest in 2023 were smeared as "Putin cunts" and "bitches" by such outlets as DER SPIEGEL. If you suggest that Putin is not a Hitler you are dencounced as a Putin-puppet on national TV shows. On a daily basis the media lie, insult, disinform. 24/7. As does btw the German government and its branches, e.g. via omitting certain details in readouts about telephone calls between Scholz and Putin. The situation is way worse than in the US. I get all my information from there. In Germany in 1942 it was possible to read Russian papers.
Not today. If you disagree today and want to express a contradicting opinion as a journalist or as a university teacher you are out. If you don´t budge you get fired. We have had several court cases where judges had to force the institutions to take back the illegal firing. Because you cannot just fire someone for a different opinion. However the people eventually would leave their jobs because their colleagues were literally hating them. People who had been working together for years before. These might be extreme examples. But the underlying atmosphere of censorship, self-censorship, fear is so ultimate that in public it is neglected and yet everybody abides by it. I myself have shelved all projects involving Russia. Since 2022 I assume most city halls in the country have a Ukrainian flag up. My own alma mater was illuminated by blue-yellow lights during the night for 2 years. (I don´t know if they still do or if electricity bills forbid this act of "solidarity" by now). On Febr. 24th in the city of Hamburg the entire public was pausing to keep one minute of silence, public transport was stopping. Radio stations were playing the Ukrainian anthem.
At the same time the Ukrainian representative to Hamburg, Iryna Tybinka, in 2022 had complained that Ukrainian refugee children had to attend classes together with non-European children, i.e. non-whites. It would upset their "cultural development." She was criticizing the German educational system as not good enough keeping back the genius Ukrainian youth that had fled and come here to continue with their studies. Such stories are just the tip of the iceberg. (another: Ukrainian Nazis have become best friends of Nazi-hating German GREENS.)
3) This concerns almost the entirety of all academia of any area. CERN fired its Russian scientists, Russian PhDs could not finish their studies and had to leave. Russian musicians or conductors who did not denounce Putin or the war left their orchestras. No German-Russian organisations any more.
Add to that 30-40% of the population. To varying degrees. Most people do not have the luxury of time to question the MSM. So they live with the PR. Depending on how recalcitrant they are they tend to question or not question the government line. But as of now German media see themselves as amplifiers of the government and have turned buddies with secret intelligence and the armed forces.
Just yesterday one major daily brought a piece about the lack of housing. After 5 sentences the article argued with great empathy that the Scholz government could not meet the intended target of annual 400k new apartments because of the "Russian war of aggression against Ukraine". So it again was Putin´s fault. However detached it will find its way into the proper narrative.
If we have one single reason that there is no hot war yet in Europe, it´s Russia´s WMDs.
Things have happened which I did not consider possible pre 2022. With the budget issues which you have covered we reach a new level of material self-destruction, and I seriously fear for the fabric of this society. To paraphrase a Hollywod comedy by the Coen brothers: If Germany is a diamond in the raw, arms manufacturers and the ruling groups will take the diamond and leave behind the raw. Cynism is all we have left.