The big news is that Trump has pronounced the Witkoff-Putin talks as very productive. He has further announced he will meet with Putin face to face as soon as next week. He spoke to Putin by telephone today. Trump also says that he intends to follow up on his meeting with Putin with a three-way meeting between himself, Putin and Zelensky.
We have no official word from Russia but the Trump announcement is in line with predictions coming from Sergey Lavrov that there will be "big surprises."
We have no readout from either side on the terms discussed between the parties, only that there were two subjects: Ukraine and US-Russia strategic cooperation.
I am not sure, but it may be that the Russians are not certain about how much political or strategic support they can expect from China, suggesting maybe the Chinese leadership is in flux. Likewise we also know, at least in part, that preliminary talks took place between Rubio and Lavrov and between Netanyahu, acting as a mediator with Trump, and Putin.
For sure this is a very big development, but it carries plenty of risk for all sides, but especially for Trump. Trump will need to control Zelensky, a difficult task because Zelensky has nowhere to go as he cannot easily make significant concessions. Washington allegedly wants to get rid of him because he is an obstacle to a deal, so we can't rule out a melodrama involving Zelensky's status.
Meanwhile, Trump slapped India with a 50% tariff. This is a mistake, in my view, because India will have to fight back and the US will find itself in a position of strengthening the military alignment between India and Russia. Ideologically it is also counterproductive, as India is a strong democratic country and the US is treating it as a pariah. I think India will quickly make a deal to buy Russia's new Su-57 fighter jets instead of the F-35, something that has been trending anyway.
There are other potential "disrupters. " One potential is the UK. I doubt the UK and French, along with Estonia and some others (maybe not the Germans) will be enthusiastic in supporting a brokered deal on Ukraine. The Russians report the UK is planning a so-called shadow-fleet incident (probably in the Baltic or Sea of Finland) that will trigger a UK and potential NATO response, forcing the US to support a hard anti-Russian position. So some sort of provocation can't be ruled out, notwithstanding whether the Russians have real intelligence on UK planning, or if they are faking it.
The "shadow fleet" are ships carrying Russian oil that are not insured by the London exchange. However, other insurance instruments are available in the maritime trade, so the terminology is intended to characterize these ships in a pejorative manner, and does not describe the status of these tankers.
Meanwhile, the Estonians and Finnish have attempted to thwart the transit of these tankers and have tried to pull them into port for "inspections." The Russian Navy is now escorting them, putting a stop to these provocations. More yet may happen.
Project 20380 corvette RFS Boiky. Russia's Ministry of Defense picture.
There are many other wild cards, including moves that Ukraine may make. The last time there was a cease fire that stopped flights of aircraft and drones, the Ukrainians anyway kept up attacks on Russian territory. There are plenty of other possibilities.
Even so, it looks like the diplomatic track may, at last, be leading to concrete results in ending the conflict in Ukraine.
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'Even so, it looks like the diplomatic track may, at last, be leading to concrete results in ending the conflict in Ukraine.'
I am not as optimistic as you Steve. The Europeans and hardliner Ukranians will not make concessions unless there is a complete crumbling of the Ukrainian Army, which is holding on for grim death by its finger tips at the moment. Expect that if there looks to be a sign of a breakthrough in a Russian/US agreement expect provocations from both of these parties.
The other issue is; does Trump still insist on a 30 day ceasefire or pause/suspension in the fighting before negotiations (the Whitkoff Plan)? If so, then the Russians will walk away as they have said this is unacceptable. The only acceptable situation for Russia to accept a stop in the fighting is the acceptance by Ukraine and NATO of it's memorandum presented in May (the same as their demands in about June 2022), which those parties will not accept.
I think it is likely the war will continue and be resolved on the battlefield once the Russians achieve their territorial objectives.
The final solution in Ukraine has been painfully obvious for quite awhile. All the eastern Russian speaking Christian Orthodox areas of Ukraine will return to Russian control. Ukraine will demilitarize ( not hard since they've eradicated a whole generation of their male population), no NATO, some form of US security guarantees and help rebuilding in exchange for scarce minerals like lithium of which Ukraine has gobs. Oh, and of course Zelensky can take his stolen millions and leave unmolested. Russia holds all the cards and the Ukrainian armed forces are stretched thin, no reserves and ready to break. A deal preserves the western 2/3's of the country. No deal and all of Ukraine could, if Putin wants it, come under Russian control. Total repudiation of the neo-cons, could have had this in 2014, Minsk I&II with eastern Ukraine autonomous but still in Ukraine.
'Even so, it looks like the diplomatic track may, at last, be leading to concrete results in ending the conflict in Ukraine.'
I am not as optimistic as you Steve. The Europeans and hardliner Ukranians will not make concessions unless there is a complete crumbling of the Ukrainian Army, which is holding on for grim death by its finger tips at the moment. Expect that if there looks to be a sign of a breakthrough in a Russian/US agreement expect provocations from both of these parties.
The other issue is; does Trump still insist on a 30 day ceasefire or pause/suspension in the fighting before negotiations (the Whitkoff Plan)? If so, then the Russians will walk away as they have said this is unacceptable. The only acceptable situation for Russia to accept a stop in the fighting is the acceptance by Ukraine and NATO of it's memorandum presented in May (the same as their demands in about June 2022), which those parties will not accept.
I think it is likely the war will continue and be resolved on the battlefield once the Russians achieve their territorial objectives.
The final solution in Ukraine has been painfully obvious for quite awhile. All the eastern Russian speaking Christian Orthodox areas of Ukraine will return to Russian control. Ukraine will demilitarize ( not hard since they've eradicated a whole generation of their male population), no NATO, some form of US security guarantees and help rebuilding in exchange for scarce minerals like lithium of which Ukraine has gobs. Oh, and of course Zelensky can take his stolen millions and leave unmolested. Russia holds all the cards and the Ukrainian armed forces are stretched thin, no reserves and ready to break. A deal preserves the western 2/3's of the country. No deal and all of Ukraine could, if Putin wants it, come under Russian control. Total repudiation of the neo-cons, could have had this in 2014, Minsk I&II with eastern Ukraine autonomous but still in Ukraine.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com