'Even so, it looks like the diplomatic track may, at last, be leading to concrete results in ending the conflict in Ukraine.'
I am not as optimistic as you Steve. The Europeans and hardliner Ukranians will not make concessions unless there is a complete crumbling of the Ukrainian Army, which is holding on for grim death by its finger tips at the moment. Expect that if there looks to be a sign of a breakthrough in a Russian/US agreement expect provocations from both of these parties.
The other issue is; does Trump still insist on a 30 day ceasefire or pause/suspension in the fighting before negotiations (the Whitkoff Plan)? If so, then the Russians will walk away as they have said this is unacceptable. The only acceptable situation for Russia to accept a stop in the fighting is the acceptance by Ukraine and NATO of it's memorandum presented in May (the same as their demands in about June 2022), which those parties will not accept.
I think it is likely the war will continue and be resolved on the battlefield once the Russians achieve their territorial objectives.
The final solution in Ukraine has been painfully obvious for quite awhile. All the eastern Russian speaking Christian Orthodox areas of Ukraine will return to Russian control. Ukraine will demilitarize ( not hard since they've eradicated a whole generation of their male population), no NATO, some form of US security guarantees and help rebuilding in exchange for scarce minerals like lithium of which Ukraine has gobs. Oh, and of course Zelensky can take his stolen millions and leave unmolested. Russia holds all the cards and the Ukrainian armed forces are stretched thin, no reserves and ready to break. A deal preserves the western 2/3's of the country. No deal and all of Ukraine could, if Putin wants it, come under Russian control. Total repudiation of the neo-cons, could have had this in 2014, Minsk I&II with eastern Ukraine autonomous but still in Ukraine.
I think back before Trump entered office and remember that the only thing Biden did was get Congress to approve more funding for Ukraine. If there was an effort to begin a dialogue to end the war Biden's influence was weak to say the least. Reports that Biden refused to even speak with Putin are very disconcerting. Now, Trump is leading the effort and small steps have been made. Putin is still obstinate but he is beginning to realize he's dealing with a different U.S. leader. Trump is being cautiously optimistic but realizes that the game Putin plays is still an obstacle. But now, they appear to be actually talking- far better than the stagnation under Biden.
You can't believe anything about anything that comes out of the U.S. administration. My guess is that Witikoff asked Putin what is it exactly that you absolutely need if Trump comes for a meeting. And Putin responded...... we will be happy to meet with Trump and reiterate what we have been saying over and over again. Maybe this time he will actually hear us if we say it face to face. Of course, there will need to be face saving gestures on both sides for any settlement ..........
What Trump does is to first create a conflict then force a pause in the conflict on his own terms. This will not happen with Russia. The only motive of Trump is to save his proxy - Ukraine - before Russia crushes it by military means.
The problem with secondary sanctions against China and India is that we'd be incentivizing these countries to step up their support for Russia, in order to effect a quicker end to the war. They don't gain anything from complying with our demands because we wouldn't really gain anything from their compliance. The outcome is set at this point. We'll be unhappy one way or another. China and India have zero reason to try appease us.
The danger here is that Trump has received faulty intel (no surprise with US intelligence agencies) and believes Russia is close to collapse. If so, he may try to bully Putin into a ceasefire. Or issue an ultimatum regarding the seizure of Russia's tanker fleet.
Until Russia's legitimate security concerns are addressed or Ukraine is completely defeated, the war will continue.
I guess we all have to wait and see. Certainly, President Trump has a lot of carrots which he can offer unilaterally (ie without any Euro support) to Russia -- removing US sanctions; stating openly that the US opposes the Ukraine ever joining NATO; removing US troops from the Baltic chihuahuas; removing US missiles from Eastern Europe; restarting direct US/Russia flights. Whether any of that would be enough to convince President Putin to order a ceasefire before Zelensky withdraws his forces from the now-Russian oblasts ... I don't know.
Zelensky is the potential spoiler -- but presumably the Presidents know that and have a plan before they agreed to a meeting.
Even in its hayday, Russo-American trade was small. Most of the Russian Trade is EU&EFTA. Moreover, Switzerland and Austria are now informal NATO members too. The only question is how much deep-into-Russia strikes are due to US targeting: Nearer to 75% or 95%?
The future will not necessarily look like the past. Russia has a lot of empty land and China to its south with 10 times its population, the full technological capabilities of the Workshop of the World, and an increasingly impressive military. It would be quite reasonable for Russia to want in the medium/longer term to build substantial productive relationships with other countries as a counter-balance to over-dependence on China. That presumably is the mutually-beneficial angle that Witkoff has been pursuing. The issue for the Presidents is how to deal with the war-mongers in Europe, the Ukraine, and the US Congress.
Lotsa "balls up in the air" here to be sure. Trump's oil trade threats on India are pretty meaningless (too many workarounds, etc.) and promises about Ukro ceasefire "outcomes" IMO don't mean much -- if anything either: Putin would never appear on the same podium with Trump shaking hands about a "ceasefire" unless key Russian demands are met: (1) all oblasts annexed by Russia in eastern Ukraine recognized as Russian territory, (2) "legal" leadership in Ukraine (currently not Zelensky or only if he capitulates and is protected) signed off on "neutrality" as a national policy and posture, and (3) commitments to follow thru with the implications of these, etc. Netanyahu was likely involved in negotiations with Putin because approx 1 million Jews of Russian extraction who live in Israel may afford some kind of leverage to pressure Putin in some way, but if this is a ploy exactly how it would work is unknown. In any event, Putin will never agree to a deal with the West that could or even remotely be seen or interpreted as ceding the sacrifices of Russian soldier's lives for a convenient arrangement with an enemy that would never be a friend, etc.
Putin has stated innumerable times that he will not meet with Zelensky unless it is to sign Ukraine’s surrender and agreement to all stated conditions. The coke head won’t last that long.
Nothing that comes out of Trump’s idiotic mouth will change that.
The American Emperor threatened 'very serious consequences' if the Russian Emperor didn't fold by today. And Donald moved two nuclear subs into theatre.
OK, he's also talking about talks in the Gulf in a few days, but Iran was attacked a few days ahead of talks in the Gulf 'because they missed the deadline' a few days earlier.
'Even so, it looks like the diplomatic track may, at last, be leading to concrete results in ending the conflict in Ukraine.'
I am not as optimistic as you Steve. The Europeans and hardliner Ukranians will not make concessions unless there is a complete crumbling of the Ukrainian Army, which is holding on for grim death by its finger tips at the moment. Expect that if there looks to be a sign of a breakthrough in a Russian/US agreement expect provocations from both of these parties.
The other issue is; does Trump still insist on a 30 day ceasefire or pause/suspension in the fighting before negotiations (the Whitkoff Plan)? If so, then the Russians will walk away as they have said this is unacceptable. The only acceptable situation for Russia to accept a stop in the fighting is the acceptance by Ukraine and NATO of it's memorandum presented in May (the same as their demands in about June 2022), which those parties will not accept.
I think it is likely the war will continue and be resolved on the battlefield once the Russians achieve their territorial objectives.
The final solution in Ukraine has been painfully obvious for quite awhile. All the eastern Russian speaking Christian Orthodox areas of Ukraine will return to Russian control. Ukraine will demilitarize ( not hard since they've eradicated a whole generation of their male population), no NATO, some form of US security guarantees and help rebuilding in exchange for scarce minerals like lithium of which Ukraine has gobs. Oh, and of course Zelensky can take his stolen millions and leave unmolested. Russia holds all the cards and the Ukrainian armed forces are stretched thin, no reserves and ready to break. A deal preserves the western 2/3's of the country. No deal and all of Ukraine could, if Putin wants it, come under Russian control. Total repudiation of the neo-cons, could have had this in 2014, Minsk I&II with eastern Ukraine autonomous but still in Ukraine.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
I think back before Trump entered office and remember that the only thing Biden did was get Congress to approve more funding for Ukraine. If there was an effort to begin a dialogue to end the war Biden's influence was weak to say the least. Reports that Biden refused to even speak with Putin are very disconcerting. Now, Trump is leading the effort and small steps have been made. Putin is still obstinate but he is beginning to realize he's dealing with a different U.S. leader. Trump is being cautiously optimistic but realizes that the game Putin plays is still an obstacle. But now, they appear to be actually talking- far better than the stagnation under Biden.
You can't believe anything about anything that comes out of the U.S. administration. My guess is that Witikoff asked Putin what is it exactly that you absolutely need if Trump comes for a meeting. And Putin responded...... we will be happy to meet with Trump and reiterate what we have been saying over and over again. Maybe this time he will actually hear us if we say it face to face. Of course, there will need to be face saving gestures on both sides for any settlement ..........
What Trump does is to first create a conflict then force a pause in the conflict on his own terms. This will not happen with Russia. The only motive of Trump is to save his proxy - Ukraine - before Russia crushes it by military means.
I think the UK's response will be intertwined with the fate of the captured military officers (and MI-6 operative).
I think the UK leadership will ultimately consider them disposable assets.
The problem with secondary sanctions against China and India is that we'd be incentivizing these countries to step up their support for Russia, in order to effect a quicker end to the war. They don't gain anything from complying with our demands because we wouldn't really gain anything from their compliance. The outcome is set at this point. We'll be unhappy one way or another. China and India have zero reason to try appease us.
Thanks for your great work Stephen!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
If Trump was serious about India, he would cut off work visas.
Good point. Although that may be the next step. Any us companies with call centers there should be making backup plans as well.
Now they're vetting 55M visa holders
The danger here is that Trump has received faulty intel (no surprise with US intelligence agencies) and believes Russia is close to collapse. If so, he may try to bully Putin into a ceasefire. Or issue an ultimatum regarding the seizure of Russia's tanker fleet.
Until Russia's legitimate security concerns are addressed or Ukraine is completely defeated, the war will continue.
I guess we all have to wait and see. Certainly, President Trump has a lot of carrots which he can offer unilaterally (ie without any Euro support) to Russia -- removing US sanctions; stating openly that the US opposes the Ukraine ever joining NATO; removing US troops from the Baltic chihuahuas; removing US missiles from Eastern Europe; restarting direct US/Russia flights. Whether any of that would be enough to convince President Putin to order a ceasefire before Zelensky withdraws his forces from the now-Russian oblasts ... I don't know.
Zelensky is the potential spoiler -- but presumably the Presidents know that and have a plan before they agreed to a meeting.
Even in its hayday, Russo-American trade was small. Most of the Russian Trade is EU&EFTA. Moreover, Switzerland and Austria are now informal NATO members too. The only question is how much deep-into-Russia strikes are due to US targeting: Nearer to 75% or 95%?
The future will not necessarily look like the past. Russia has a lot of empty land and China to its south with 10 times its population, the full technological capabilities of the Workshop of the World, and an increasingly impressive military. It would be quite reasonable for Russia to want in the medium/longer term to build substantial productive relationships with other countries as a counter-balance to over-dependence on China. That presumably is the mutually-beneficial angle that Witkoff has been pursuing. The issue for the Presidents is how to deal with the war-mongers in Europe, the Ukraine, and the US Congress.
Lotsa "balls up in the air" here to be sure. Trump's oil trade threats on India are pretty meaningless (too many workarounds, etc.) and promises about Ukro ceasefire "outcomes" IMO don't mean much -- if anything either: Putin would never appear on the same podium with Trump shaking hands about a "ceasefire" unless key Russian demands are met: (1) all oblasts annexed by Russia in eastern Ukraine recognized as Russian territory, (2) "legal" leadership in Ukraine (currently not Zelensky or only if he capitulates and is protected) signed off on "neutrality" as a national policy and posture, and (3) commitments to follow thru with the implications of these, etc. Netanyahu was likely involved in negotiations with Putin because approx 1 million Jews of Russian extraction who live in Israel may afford some kind of leverage to pressure Putin in some way, but if this is a ploy exactly how it would work is unknown. In any event, Putin will never agree to a deal with the West that could or even remotely be seen or interpreted as ceding the sacrifices of Russian soldier's lives for a convenient arrangement with an enemy that would never be a friend, etc.
No more munitions for Ukraine. Its all a waste of money and energy. I'm disappointed that Trump resumed aid howbeit, indirect.
Putin has stated innumerable times that he will not meet with Zelensky unless it is to sign Ukraine’s surrender and agreement to all stated conditions. The coke head won’t last that long.
Nothing that comes out of Trump’s idiotic mouth will change that.
Putin is playing Trump like a piano.
no deal. europian and london banks
Putin must be very worried.
The American Emperor threatened 'very serious consequences' if the Russian Emperor didn't fold by today. And Donald moved two nuclear subs into theatre.
OK, he's also talking about talks in the Gulf in a few days, but Iran was attacked a few days ahead of talks in the Gulf 'because they missed the deadline' a few days earlier.
JUST KIDDING!...
Iran didn't have Kompromat :-)