Turns out Trump is a horrible negotiator, who thinks the "mighty USA" can bully other countries into a deal. That may work with European countries who have no backbone but won't work with Russia and China. Furthermore, he must be naive and senseless to make this conflict his own. The best thing to do would have been to walk away from the conflict and blame it on Joe Biden.
Perhaps, Trump is just a trickster. He appears wanting to selve the conflict but in fact the US still send weapons and provide intelligence to Ukraine. In the end, the war will go on and Trump will look like a fool.
My take is that Trump wants to dump the Ukraine fiasco the same way Biden did with Afghanistan. Biden, of course, wanted to husband resources for his Ukraine war. Likely Trump is itching to unburden himself from the Ukraine fiasco so he can start something in Iran and the instigate war with China. Unlike Biden, Trump doesn't want to take the political hit for walking away from the Ukies, so he'll set them up to take the blame.
In any case, Russia holds all the cards in Ukraine. Weak, unpopular EU governments will fall very quickly if they launch obvious provocations with the Russian. Try conscripting German youth to THIS Russian front. (I was just in Germany for a month. They're not in the mood for a war while jobs are evaporating there)
Likewise we Americans are in no mood to become embroiled in a fight with the Russians that can easily go nuclear... as in "strategic" nuclear with ICBMs and all that.
A military confrontation would easily finish off the Trump Administration in a flash. Trump likely knows that. My money says Trump will claim he's done all he can, but the parties are recalcitrant. Then he'll walk out the door. The EU Chihuahuas will fold and the Russians will achieve their strategic war aims.
If the West tries to do something stupid, the gloves will come off. Russia could physically decapitate Ukrainian Command & Control in a flash and crash what's left of the energy grid. In the event of a true fuel embargo, the Russians could stop all fossil fuel deliveries, creating a huge supply hole and send prices soaring.
Then it will be a waiting game. Who can take the pain more: The Russians or the American and EU electorate that will be mired in a fierce economic recession/ Depression.
Dragging countries into war also lays the groundwork for Revolution. Ask Czar Alexander how WWI worked out for him. Mussolini might share some insights too. Or LBJ.
"If the West tries to do something stupid, the gloves will come off. Russia could physically decapitate Ukrainian Command & Control in a flash and crash what's left of the energy grid. In the event of a true fuel embargo, the Russians could stop all fossil fuel deliveries, creating a huge supply hole and send prices soaring."
That is how Putin should have conducted the war from the beginning. Dragging out the war has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands.
It's complicated... I have to think the Kremlin weighs more considerations than we might... on the other hand they may be too nuanced and clever... my instincts are with you... the longer the AFU hang around the more chance things could go sideways very badly.
Putin can smirk and show up late to a meeting with Trump because Russian oil and gas sales continue to be virtually as strong as before he invaded Ukraine. Wth each litre of Russian gas they purchase, EU denizens pay for about 5 rounds of AK-47 ammunition! Despite histrionics, Europeans purchased $23.6bn of Russian oil & gas in 2023, while committing only $20.17bn in loans (not grants) to Ukraine. Despite Western bans on Russian crude and refined products, Russian oil exports are down a mere 8% since it invaded Ukraine. Russia booked close to $1 trillion from oil exports since Feb 2022. China purchased $82 billion in Russian fuel, India bought $51 billion and Turkey bought $36 billion in 2024 alone. Russia earned $254 billion from fossil fuel exports last year, only a 3% drop over the previous year. Thus, the answer to "Why aren't the Europeans doing more to support Ukraine" is obvious: Europe cannot live without Russian fossil fuels, and Europeans are resolutely against adopting a "wartime economy" by cutting off Russian fuels, especially after the suicidal Green New Deals they've made in destroying their own fossil fuel extraction infrastructure. Trump therefore threatens "secondary sanctions": the cost of access to the US market (tariffs) increases commensurate with a country's purchases of Russian oil and gas. Theoretically, that would inflict economic pain on China, India, Germany and Turkey. How much price rises of commodoties sold to US consumers would ensue, and consumers' tolerance level, remain the ultimate question.
"Meanwhile the US is anxious for Europe to take over responsibility for supporting Ukraine as Washington turns to the Middle East and Pacific regions."
The United States needs to return home and end its hegemonic belligerence.
"Some say Russia cannot sustain the war, that its economy is a shambles, and pulling in more conscripts to fight is politically difficult because the conflict has dragged out."
I do not believe Russia's economy is in shambles, but Putin was negligent in not conducting the war in a determined and expeditious way. The war has gone on longer than it took for the Russians to expel the Nazis in WWII.
Would he have gotten the support from the elite and the Russian population though for a full scale war in 2022?
The Russian population rallied behind Putin, after Baerbock and Biden openly announced that they intended to wreck the Russian economy and thus basically destroy their nation.
I agree it's a tough one considering how many Russians have direct ties with Ukraine. Perhaps this one can't be answered but I agree, in retrospective Putin was too soft, still is. But that's also because he feels sorry for the people. If it wasn't Ukrainians, he'd be done with them by now.
Trump trying to force a winning side to accept terms is ridiculous. People have forgotten serious sanctions he's threatening are acts of war. This could result in a catastrophic expansion of the war. The sanctions and weapons supplied to Ukraine, intelligence sharing with us soldiers operating himars were already acts of war. Trump is showing his foreign policy weakness. Trump will fail and withdrawal is inevitable. I bet the Europeans will never put troops in Ukraine. They are bluffing and Russia knows it
If national security advisor Mike Waltz goes through with attacking Iran because they won't negotiate, it won't matter what happens in the Ukraine. Russia and China will keep their promises to defend Iran and WW3 will begin.
There is a distinct possibility of Russia swapping sanctions relief PLUS Novorossiya with power projection for the Baltics incl Finland for Iran and Greenland. If China would then go-it-alone on Iran support is a question.
Some argue we already have a WW3. Ukraine who is being supported by how many countries? vs Russia who is being supported by China, Iran and North Korea.
Ukraine is supported by the Global West incl Japan and S Korea. Only the nat con governments in Slovakia, Hungary and Israel are neutral. Now that a nat con won the presidential election in the US, he wants to put it behind him too.
As expected Trump has bluffed and blundered. The secondary sanctions on India is already into effect because the Indian economy is a US-Europe back office cascading into real estate, healthcare, finance and banking and pretty much everything. If EuroAmerica pull it India will be back to the Hindu growth of rate which the population wont support at all. So India has made BRICS a social club while tilting heavily to the US through extravagant tariff concessions. Moreover Russian oil tankers are being turned away from Indian ports because uncle Sam has order of the British empire member Ambani by the balls. China on the other hand has real leverage and sovereignty while its economy is still heavily dependent on exports to the west. So it is a possiblity that some Chinese multinationals will quietly acquisece to US secondary sanctions while the government maintains the everlasting friendship line with Russia. Unless China has another card in its sleeve like companies such as BYD manufacturing locally in South America and Europe and not having to face 'real sanctions'. China can act on it own like it forced the Red Dragon family western asset Li Ka Shing to recant the port sale to Blackrock. If that version is true then China might be able to call Trump's bluff and the US economy is going to face inflation and markets are going to see a wild ride which is bad for the Trump base and his bankster backers. The British and French navy and airforce going into Ukraine would please the God people in Bilderbergs, Chatham House Roundtable Club of Rome and the Vatican. But the his majesty's army can barely invade a football pitch and will be overrun by football hooligans of the London clubs if they were to fight even an internal enemy. It is a recipe for France and Britain to lose valuable military hardware without the ability to quickly or cost effectively replace them. But then it would be a sight to behold for sore eyes and worth the spectacle itself.
While France and Great Britain do have aircraft carriers, they are on the wrong side of the Bosporus, and these aircraft carriers are heavier than the 10,000-ton limit imposed on warships. I see no sign the Turks would wish to abrogate the Montreux Convention over this.
Good point, unless the Turks want to cause trouble for the Russians where, these days, relations are not too good. When it functioned, the Russian a/c carrier was allowed through the straits.
As a Black Sea country, the USSR (and Russia, and Ukraine) have special rights: Under Article 11, Black Sea states are permitted to transit capital ships of any tonnage through the straits, but Annex II specifically excludes aircraft carriers from the definition of capital ship. The Soviet Union designated its Kiev-class and Kuznetsov-class ships as "aircraft-carrying cruisers" because the ships were armed with P-500 and P-700 cruise missiles, which also form the main armament of the Slava-class cruiser and the Kirov-class battlecruiser.
"Some say Russia cannot sustain the war, that its economy is a shambles, and pulling in more conscripts to fight is politically difficult because the conflict has dragged out. If that is true, Russia is without an exit strategy other than for its political and military institutions to collapse."
Your taking fantasyland futures as-if they weren't fantasyland futures, but are instead maybe likely possibilities that ought to be taken and considered seriously, is displaying shocking ignorance. For example, Russia's economy, according to the World Bank, grew during the 7 years from 2016 to 2023, 82 percent, or 8.93% annualized rate, which was one of the fastest growth-rates in the world (this is as measured in GDP PPP, which is now the standard measure of an economy). And Putin's polled approval-rating right now is 87%, which is near his highest ever -- and it has averaged since 2000 at 75%.
Eric, I never said that I believed what is being said, but it is the official position of MI-6 and the DIA. and probably others. I also have read all the assessments of the Russian economy including by top bankers. My own conclusion is Russia will continue the war.
If permanent war and weapons economy is key to economic "growth" for UK and US shouldnt by the same theory of economics war and weapons economy be good for growth for Russia? Russia challenge is people - war needs manhood - by some means it is meeting the people challenge now. For example Indians Nepalis and Srilankans were gamed by some unscrupulous Russian agents on the promise of back office work supporting the Russian army but were then seized and given three months arms training and sent to the frontlines. When the news reached India the prime minister and the Patriarch of its ancient local orthodox church - who was actually a disciple of Kiril at Moscow seminary in the late 80s - they were directly involved in trying to negotiate the repatriation of the Indians. Even though the Russian presidents office got involved and tried to retrieve them people at the higher level in the army had no idea where these people were deployed and later their dead bodies were sent back to India when the Indian government banned recruitment to Russia itself. On the other hand the Russian presidents office dealt with their grieving relatives honorably by offering resettlement in Russia and Rs10 million in cash which is a small fortune in India although the resettlement initiative had few takers for obvious economic cultural/linguistic reasons. This is at least different from the British dishonorable discharge of Nepali Gurkha war wounded. The current war might last 10 years as the CIA M16 and German-French intelligence are planning as they want to repeat the soviet situation in Afghanistan again. If that situation takes hold where will Russia find fighters from with a declining population? The European part of the equation is clear Spain is already offering visas for military service to North Africans. German and Scandinavian women already import a insane number of North Africans and Afghans each year as sex toys who when they get their papers leave their assignments and move into the general adult population - all of these Arabs Kurds Somalis Afghans who lack meaningful employment in western Europe can be mobilised for war in exchange for extravagant pay out of the trillion euro war budget Europe is amassing. Similarly the Aukus countries are now being dumped with millions of jobless low class Indian men as to opposed educated upper class professionals till 2015-16 - these people come from innately conflictive cultures were every day civil strife is a reality and they can be mobilised for war in lieu of passports and citizenship benefits. Although the two world wars were of no interest to ordinary Indians at least a million Indians directly and indirectly died in the war zones as mercenaries or suppliers. So these people are ready- made war fodder. Russia at the same time faces a dire situation unless these Kenyans and Congolese they are planning to recruit for their industries are actually deceptively being mobilised into war.
"If permanent war and weapons economy is key to economic "growth" for UK and US shouldnt by the same theory of economics war and weapons economy be good for growth for Russia?"
The answer is no, for two reasons:
1. Whereas in Russia, the armaments-manufacturers are majority-owned by the Government and so aren't driven for profits but for national-security, and so those firms are efficient for that purpose; in America, the armaments-manufacturers are drive strictly for profits and not for national security, and so are efficient for producing profits, because their owners control the Government, which is their main or only market.
2. Short-term, boosts in military spending can improve employment and wages, and thus boost the economy, high military spending as an economy's permanent feature drives manufacturing away from the goods that consumers use; and, so, lowers the standard of living, as is happening in the U.S., where now the Government is even seeking to cut Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, education, and services to the poor, in order to increase military spending even more (which boosts ONLY the billionaires who control those companies that are selling to the Government).
Totally agree. When the USSR fell the US MIC went into profits over production mode. Russia has kept the same US MIC system they learned from us after the Nazi's destroyed their MIC at the beginning of WW2. While we had a massive lend lease program most know about, less known was that our manufacturing engineers helped the newly relocated MIC in Siberia match our manufacturing system that placed production over profits. The same system they still use.
Ironic that they are outproducing all the Wests MIC's using techniques we taught them in WW2.
Great insight thanks for the explanation - that's why a trillion dollars disappear annually at the Pentagon and the institution cant be audited. Also explains why after hundreds of billions of dollars spent the US MIC cant make a hypersonic missile or anything better than the flying junk metal coffin the F35.
The sentence strays with "Some say". Indeed these people say that the Russian economy is overheating and inflation may become too high because there aren't enough skilled workers. However those aren't Stephen's words.
The whole point for "european peacekeepers" is for them to get attacked, then the european catamites run screaming to the United States demanding that the Americans go to war, all to a MSM Hallelujah Chorus of "Muh American Credibility Is At Stake!"
No, Trump won't like it, but he won;t have a choice, unless he wants to leave the europeans out to dry.
This ever always only was the plan. See, Libya. The british and french made a great show about European Independence and quickly bogged down, out of ammo and out of options. After some misgivings, the Americans jumped in at the urging of one HRC, rather than leave the catamites to twist in the wind.
The US cannot fight in Ukraine directly. Empty stockpiles and no logistics and how many men can the US throw in with what? How would Russia react? Likely either destroy or nuke NATO bases in Poland and Romania as a start. They would kill thousands of NATO soldiers within a few strikes. Again, there is nothing the US can do here and they know it. The US can't win against the Houtis and you fear them fighting Russia, stop dreaming please.
I agree with you Parti... the US won't push the Ukrainian escapade to the brink... not even Trump is that dumb. Don't count on the Russians capitulating.
Won't happen. There is zero public support for USA troops to enter Ukraine. Trump would be in serious trouble politically if he sent forces to fight directly. It would be madness. It would Be a huge betrayal to maga
You act like any of this matters. MAGA is first and foremosta cult of personality. . Hell, Trump is gearing up for war on Iran and MAGA are cheering it on.
And remember Goering's words:
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
WW1 was at that time the only conflict in town, there were no bigger fish to fry. Wilson was already re-elected, so he had no fear of an electoral backlash. And then, Wilhelmstrasse blundered with the Zimmermann Depeche, trying to bribe Mexico to restart war of reconquering the US Southwest.
I had to look it up. You don't have to. A catamite is " ... a pubescent boy who was the intimate companion of an older male, usually in a pederastic relationship."
Catamites - mostly found in Islamic madrassas, Jewish Yeshivas, and Catholic monastic orders - down to Plato and Aristotle who imported Phoenician Hyskos mysteries and means of social control, empire building and warfare to Europe and the Mediterreanean - used for creating mind controlled puppets and assassins in warrior cultures. Gay sex unleashes the serpent spirit that fosters rage and vengeance psychosis extremely useful for warrior cultures and empire building - so the permanent Islamic and Jewish rage and vengeance cultures and the hidden rage and vengeance cultures in the European royal families Knights of Malta, Garter, Jesuitism et al. Also why the Ottoman sultans harvested teenage Christian catamites from the Levant and Balkans who became the sultans mind controlled loyal Janissary rage and vengeance ultra elite defence corps.
It is debatable whether Russia really is an enemy of the US -- I think not. But it is not debatable that President Trump has many enemies behind him -- the entire Democrat machine, RINOs in Congress, the Deep State CIA and FBI, most of the media, and most of the judges in the US legal machine. Then there are all the enemies in Europe trying to drag him down.
With that correlation of forces, it is quite clear what the plan is: wait until Zelensky does something sufficiently outrageous & anti-peace that President Trump can get enough support from the Establishment to walk away from the Ukraine. What happens in the Ukraine and Europe after that is of no interest to the great majority of US citizens.
Trump's main problem is his absolute incompetence and lack of flexibility in international relations. American foreign policy now reminds me of trampled and polluted farm fields after the Woodstock Rock Festival. And this is in addition to Trump's real powerlessness to influence anything other than threats and "angry" rhetoric against Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Canada, Iran and others who are "disobedient" and do not succumb to his pressure... In fact, they have nowhere to rush, but Trump needs to "accomplish the feat" in the next two months.Otherwise, he will be paralyzed by a wave of criticism and obvious sabotage from internal detractors, and the failure of his first term will seem to him (and everyone else) an "accident."
Since this was written over 10 days ago, looking at various military blogs and mappers, it seems that the Ukrainian “offensive” in Belgorod has gone the way of all their other soufflé offensives, maybe they need some French “chefs” which Macaroon keeps threatening to send.
Place sanctions on China and India and any country buying oil and gas from Russia and you might as well shut down the US economy. Just in the US auto manufacturing sector very few US cars have more than 50% US made parts. That means you have to shut down all US auto production - they won't have to parts to make them.
It's not just retail that would be catastrophically affected - It is manufacturing just as much.
Even the EU needs Russian gas and oil despite the sanctions - So they are banned as well.
So add these new sanctions and wait for the 3rd world country effect.
Turns out Trump is a horrible negotiator, who thinks the "mighty USA" can bully other countries into a deal. That may work with European countries who have no backbone but won't work with Russia and China. Furthermore, he must be naive and senseless to make this conflict his own. The best thing to do would have been to walk away from the conflict and blame it on Joe Biden.
Perhaps, Trump is just a trickster. He appears wanting to selve the conflict but in fact the US still send weapons and provide intelligence to Ukraine. In the end, the war will go on and Trump will look like a fool.
My take is that Trump wants to dump the Ukraine fiasco the same way Biden did with Afghanistan. Biden, of course, wanted to husband resources for his Ukraine war. Likely Trump is itching to unburden himself from the Ukraine fiasco so he can start something in Iran and the instigate war with China. Unlike Biden, Trump doesn't want to take the political hit for walking away from the Ukies, so he'll set them up to take the blame.
In any case, Russia holds all the cards in Ukraine. Weak, unpopular EU governments will fall very quickly if they launch obvious provocations with the Russian. Try conscripting German youth to THIS Russian front. (I was just in Germany for a month. They're not in the mood for a war while jobs are evaporating there)
Likewise we Americans are in no mood to become embroiled in a fight with the Russians that can easily go nuclear... as in "strategic" nuclear with ICBMs and all that.
A military confrontation would easily finish off the Trump Administration in a flash. Trump likely knows that. My money says Trump will claim he's done all he can, but the parties are recalcitrant. Then he'll walk out the door. The EU Chihuahuas will fold and the Russians will achieve their strategic war aims.
If the West tries to do something stupid, the gloves will come off. Russia could physically decapitate Ukrainian Command & Control in a flash and crash what's left of the energy grid. In the event of a true fuel embargo, the Russians could stop all fossil fuel deliveries, creating a huge supply hole and send prices soaring.
Then it will be a waiting game. Who can take the pain more: The Russians or the American and EU electorate that will be mired in a fierce economic recession/ Depression.
Weak and upopular governments love wars.
Wars give those governments a popularity boost, not to mention an excuse to crack down on dissent.
This is why Hemingway famously wrote that war is one response to a mismanaged country, the other being inflation.
Dragging countries into war also lays the groundwork for Revolution. Ask Czar Alexander how WWI worked out for him. Mussolini might share some insights too. Or LBJ.
"If the West tries to do something stupid, the gloves will come off. Russia could physically decapitate Ukrainian Command & Control in a flash and crash what's left of the energy grid. In the event of a true fuel embargo, the Russians could stop all fossil fuel deliveries, creating a huge supply hole and send prices soaring."
That is how Putin should have conducted the war from the beginning. Dragging out the war has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands.
It's complicated... I have to think the Kremlin weighs more considerations than we might... on the other hand they may be too nuanced and clever... my instincts are with you... the longer the AFU hang around the more chance things could go sideways very badly.
Everyone wants to send someone else’s kids to die miserable deaths for no good reason. Except to enrich the war mongers. This is all absurd.
Putin can smirk and show up late to a meeting with Trump because Russian oil and gas sales continue to be virtually as strong as before he invaded Ukraine. Wth each litre of Russian gas they purchase, EU denizens pay for about 5 rounds of AK-47 ammunition! Despite histrionics, Europeans purchased $23.6bn of Russian oil & gas in 2023, while committing only $20.17bn in loans (not grants) to Ukraine. Despite Western bans on Russian crude and refined products, Russian oil exports are down a mere 8% since it invaded Ukraine. Russia booked close to $1 trillion from oil exports since Feb 2022. China purchased $82 billion in Russian fuel, India bought $51 billion and Turkey bought $36 billion in 2024 alone. Russia earned $254 billion from fossil fuel exports last year, only a 3% drop over the previous year. Thus, the answer to "Why aren't the Europeans doing more to support Ukraine" is obvious: Europe cannot live without Russian fossil fuels, and Europeans are resolutely against adopting a "wartime economy" by cutting off Russian fuels, especially after the suicidal Green New Deals they've made in destroying their own fossil fuel extraction infrastructure. Trump therefore threatens "secondary sanctions": the cost of access to the US market (tariffs) increases commensurate with a country's purchases of Russian oil and gas. Theoretically, that would inflict economic pain on China, India, Germany and Turkey. How much price rises of commodoties sold to US consumers would ensue, and consumers' tolerance level, remain the ultimate question.
"Meanwhile the US is anxious for Europe to take over responsibility for supporting Ukraine as Washington turns to the Middle East and Pacific regions."
The United States needs to return home and end its hegemonic belligerence.
"Some say Russia cannot sustain the war, that its economy is a shambles, and pulling in more conscripts to fight is politically difficult because the conflict has dragged out."
I do not believe Russia's economy is in shambles, but Putin was negligent in not conducting the war in a determined and expeditious way. The war has gone on longer than it took for the Russians to expel the Nazis in WWII.
Would he have gotten the support from the elite and the Russian population though for a full scale war in 2022?
The Russian population rallied behind Putin, after Baerbock and Biden openly announced that they intended to wreck the Russian economy and thus basically destroy their nation.
Russia only had, what, eight years to prepare, to get the elites and population on-side?
"Would he have gotten the support from the elite and the Russian population though for a full scale war in 2022?"
It is hard to say, but he could have promoted it. Most likely, they would in retrospect.
I agree it's a tough one considering how many Russians have direct ties with Ukraine. Perhaps this one can't be answered but I agree, in retrospective Putin was too soft, still is. But that's also because he feels sorry for the people. If it wasn't Ukrainians, he'd be done with them by now.
Trump trying to force a winning side to accept terms is ridiculous. People have forgotten serious sanctions he's threatening are acts of war. This could result in a catastrophic expansion of the war. The sanctions and weapons supplied to Ukraine, intelligence sharing with us soldiers operating himars were already acts of war. Trump is showing his foreign policy weakness. Trump will fail and withdrawal is inevitable. I bet the Europeans will never put troops in Ukraine. They are bluffing and Russia knows it
If national security advisor Mike Waltz goes through with attacking Iran because they won't negotiate, it won't matter what happens in the Ukraine. Russia and China will keep their promises to defend Iran and WW3 will begin.
There is a distinct possibility of Russia swapping sanctions relief PLUS Novorossiya with power projection for the Baltics incl Finland for Iran and Greenland. If China would then go-it-alone on Iran support is a question.
Who or what would facilitate the swaps?
Some argue we already have a WW3. Ukraine who is being supported by how many countries? vs Russia who is being supported by China, Iran and North Korea.
How can we have WW3 before Russia finally looses patience with America supporting attacks on them and launches on us?
Ukraine is supported by the Global West incl Japan and S Korea. Only the nat con governments in Slovakia, Hungary and Israel are neutral. Now that a nat con won the presidential election in the US, he wants to put it behind him too.
As expected Trump has bluffed and blundered. The secondary sanctions on India is already into effect because the Indian economy is a US-Europe back office cascading into real estate, healthcare, finance and banking and pretty much everything. If EuroAmerica pull it India will be back to the Hindu growth of rate which the population wont support at all. So India has made BRICS a social club while tilting heavily to the US through extravagant tariff concessions. Moreover Russian oil tankers are being turned away from Indian ports because uncle Sam has order of the British empire member Ambani by the balls. China on the other hand has real leverage and sovereignty while its economy is still heavily dependent on exports to the west. So it is a possiblity that some Chinese multinationals will quietly acquisece to US secondary sanctions while the government maintains the everlasting friendship line with Russia. Unless China has another card in its sleeve like companies such as BYD manufacturing locally in South America and Europe and not having to face 'real sanctions'. China can act on it own like it forced the Red Dragon family western asset Li Ka Shing to recant the port sale to Blackrock. If that version is true then China might be able to call Trump's bluff and the US economy is going to face inflation and markets are going to see a wild ride which is bad for the Trump base and his bankster backers. The British and French navy and airforce going into Ukraine would please the God people in Bilderbergs, Chatham House Roundtable Club of Rome and the Vatican. But the his majesty's army can barely invade a football pitch and will be overrun by football hooligans of the London clubs if they were to fight even an internal enemy. It is a recipe for France and Britain to lose valuable military hardware without the ability to quickly or cost effectively replace them. But then it would be a sight to behold for sore eyes and worth the spectacle itself.
While France and Great Britain do have aircraft carriers, they are on the wrong side of the Bosporus, and these aircraft carriers are heavier than the 10,000-ton limit imposed on warships. I see no sign the Turks would wish to abrogate the Montreux Convention over this.
Good point, unless the Turks want to cause trouble for the Russians where, these days, relations are not too good. When it functioned, the Russian a/c carrier was allowed through the straits.
As a Black Sea country, the USSR (and Russia, and Ukraine) have special rights: Under Article 11, Black Sea states are permitted to transit capital ships of any tonnage through the straits, but Annex II specifically excludes aircraft carriers from the definition of capital ship. The Soviet Union designated its Kiev-class and Kuznetsov-class ships as "aircraft-carrying cruisers" because the ships were armed with P-500 and P-700 cruise missiles, which also form the main armament of the Slava-class cruiser and the Kirov-class battlecruiser.
"Some say Russia cannot sustain the war, that its economy is a shambles, and pulling in more conscripts to fight is politically difficult because the conflict has dragged out. If that is true, Russia is without an exit strategy other than for its political and military institutions to collapse."
Your taking fantasyland futures as-if they weren't fantasyland futures, but are instead maybe likely possibilities that ought to be taken and considered seriously, is displaying shocking ignorance. For example, Russia's economy, according to the World Bank, grew during the 7 years from 2016 to 2023, 82 percent, or 8.93% annualized rate, which was one of the fastest growth-rates in the world (this is as measured in GDP PPP, which is now the standard measure of an economy). And Putin's polled approval-rating right now is 87%, which is near his highest ever -- and it has averaged since 2000 at 75%.
Eric, I never said that I believed what is being said, but it is the official position of MI-6 and the DIA. and probably others. I also have read all the assessments of the Russian economy including by top bankers. My own conclusion is Russia will continue the war.
If permanent war and weapons economy is key to economic "growth" for UK and US shouldnt by the same theory of economics war and weapons economy be good for growth for Russia? Russia challenge is people - war needs manhood - by some means it is meeting the people challenge now. For example Indians Nepalis and Srilankans were gamed by some unscrupulous Russian agents on the promise of back office work supporting the Russian army but were then seized and given three months arms training and sent to the frontlines. When the news reached India the prime minister and the Patriarch of its ancient local orthodox church - who was actually a disciple of Kiril at Moscow seminary in the late 80s - they were directly involved in trying to negotiate the repatriation of the Indians. Even though the Russian presidents office got involved and tried to retrieve them people at the higher level in the army had no idea where these people were deployed and later their dead bodies were sent back to India when the Indian government banned recruitment to Russia itself. On the other hand the Russian presidents office dealt with their grieving relatives honorably by offering resettlement in Russia and Rs10 million in cash which is a small fortune in India although the resettlement initiative had few takers for obvious economic cultural/linguistic reasons. This is at least different from the British dishonorable discharge of Nepali Gurkha war wounded. The current war might last 10 years as the CIA M16 and German-French intelligence are planning as they want to repeat the soviet situation in Afghanistan again. If that situation takes hold where will Russia find fighters from with a declining population? The European part of the equation is clear Spain is already offering visas for military service to North Africans. German and Scandinavian women already import a insane number of North Africans and Afghans each year as sex toys who when they get their papers leave their assignments and move into the general adult population - all of these Arabs Kurds Somalis Afghans who lack meaningful employment in western Europe can be mobilised for war in exchange for extravagant pay out of the trillion euro war budget Europe is amassing. Similarly the Aukus countries are now being dumped with millions of jobless low class Indian men as to opposed educated upper class professionals till 2015-16 - these people come from innately conflictive cultures were every day civil strife is a reality and they can be mobilised for war in lieu of passports and citizenship benefits. Although the two world wars were of no interest to ordinary Indians at least a million Indians directly and indirectly died in the war zones as mercenaries or suppliers. So these people are ready- made war fodder. Russia at the same time faces a dire situation unless these Kenyans and Congolese they are planning to recruit for their industries are actually deceptively being mobilised into war.
"If permanent war and weapons economy is key to economic "growth" for UK and US shouldnt by the same theory of economics war and weapons economy be good for growth for Russia?"
The answer is no, for two reasons:
1. Whereas in Russia, the armaments-manufacturers are majority-owned by the Government and so aren't driven for profits but for national-security, and so those firms are efficient for that purpose; in America, the armaments-manufacturers are drive strictly for profits and not for national security, and so are efficient for producing profits, because their owners control the Government, which is their main or only market.
2. Short-term, boosts in military spending can improve employment and wages, and thus boost the economy, high military spending as an economy's permanent feature drives manufacturing away from the goods that consumers use; and, so, lowers the standard of living, as is happening in the U.S., where now the Government is even seeking to cut Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, education, and services to the poor, in order to increase military spending even more (which boosts ONLY the billionaires who control those companies that are selling to the Government).
Totally agree. When the USSR fell the US MIC went into profits over production mode. Russia has kept the same US MIC system they learned from us after the Nazi's destroyed their MIC at the beginning of WW2. While we had a massive lend lease program most know about, less known was that our manufacturing engineers helped the newly relocated MIC in Siberia match our manufacturing system that placed production over profits. The same system they still use.
Ironic that they are outproducing all the Wests MIC's using techniques we taught them in WW2.
Great insight thanks for the explanation - that's why a trillion dollars disappear annually at the Pentagon and the institution cant be audited. Also explains why after hundreds of billions of dollars spent the US MIC cant make a hypersonic missile or anything better than the flying junk metal coffin the F35.
The sentence strays with "Some say". Indeed these people say that the Russian economy is overheating and inflation may become too high because there aren't enough skilled workers. However those aren't Stephen's words.
The whole point for "european peacekeepers" is for them to get attacked, then the european catamites run screaming to the United States demanding that the Americans go to war, all to a MSM Hallelujah Chorus of "Muh American Credibility Is At Stake!"
No, Trump won't like it, but he won;t have a choice, unless he wants to leave the europeans out to dry.
This ever always only was the plan. See, Libya. The british and french made a great show about European Independence and quickly bogged down, out of ammo and out of options. After some misgivings, the Americans jumped in at the urging of one HRC, rather than leave the catamites to twist in the wind.
The rest is history.
Trump will leave the EU chihuahuas out to dry. he has bigger fish to fry, staring with a war in Iran.
Perhaps. That is clearly his priority at the moment, but Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
The US cannot fight in Ukraine directly. Empty stockpiles and no logistics and how many men can the US throw in with what? How would Russia react? Likely either destroy or nuke NATO bases in Poland and Romania as a start. They would kill thousands of NATO soldiers within a few strikes. Again, there is nothing the US can do here and they know it. The US can't win against the Houtis and you fear them fighting Russia, stop dreaming please.
I agree with you Parti... the US won't push the Ukrainian escapade to the brink... not even Trump is that dumb. Don't count on the Russians capitulating.
We've been hearing that one since the start of this war. Yet it is NATO that keeps escalating.
They can escalate all they want but they will not put boots on the ground.
We hear at every escalation that NATO is bluffing, that escalation is unpopular, reckless and will elad to disaster.
Yet they escalate all the same, over and over.
The Russians have a cool saying: "Don't pee your pants."
OK, so you have no substantive response. Thanks for confirming.
Won't happen. There is zero public support for USA troops to enter Ukraine. Trump would be in serious trouble politically if he sent forces to fight directly. It would be madness. It would Be a huge betrayal to maga
You act like any of this matters. MAGA is first and foremosta cult of personality. . Hell, Trump is gearing up for war on Iran and MAGA are cheering it on.
And remember Goering's words:
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
You don't understand Americans mood. They won't stand for it. Nobody is going rah rah for ukraine.
They weren't for WWI or Libya or whatever, either.
We learned. Albeit, too late.
WW1 was at that time the only conflict in town, there were no bigger fish to fry. Wilson was already re-elected, so he had no fear of an electoral backlash. And then, Wilhelmstrasse blundered with the Zimmermann Depeche, trying to bribe Mexico to restart war of reconquering the US Southwest.
I had to look it up. You don't have to. A catamite is " ... a pubescent boy who was the intimate companion of an older male, usually in a pederastic relationship."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catamite
I am not sure I would summarize the Europeans that way, but it is a good start and for a good many Americans too. Why do they call it "Europe"?
Catamites - mostly found in Islamic madrassas, Jewish Yeshivas, and Catholic monastic orders - down to Plato and Aristotle who imported Phoenician Hyskos mysteries and means of social control, empire building and warfare to Europe and the Mediterreanean - used for creating mind controlled puppets and assassins in warrior cultures. Gay sex unleashes the serpent spirit that fosters rage and vengeance psychosis extremely useful for warrior cultures and empire building - so the permanent Islamic and Jewish rage and vengeance cultures and the hidden rage and vengeance cultures in the European royal families Knights of Malta, Garter, Jesuitism et al. Also why the Ottoman sultans harvested teenage Christian catamites from the Levant and Balkans who became the sultans mind controlled loyal Janissary rage and vengeance ultra elite defence corps.
It is debatable whether Russia really is an enemy of the US -- I think not. But it is not debatable that President Trump has many enemies behind him -- the entire Democrat machine, RINOs in Congress, the Deep State CIA and FBI, most of the media, and most of the judges in the US legal machine. Then there are all the enemies in Europe trying to drag him down.
With that correlation of forces, it is quite clear what the plan is: wait until Zelensky does something sufficiently outrageous & anti-peace that President Trump can get enough support from the Establishment to walk away from the Ukraine. What happens in the Ukraine and Europe after that is of no interest to the great majority of US citizens.
Trump's main problem is his absolute incompetence and lack of flexibility in international relations. American foreign policy now reminds me of trampled and polluted farm fields after the Woodstock Rock Festival. And this is in addition to Trump's real powerlessness to influence anything other than threats and "angry" rhetoric against Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Canada, Iran and others who are "disobedient" and do not succumb to his pressure... In fact, they have nowhere to rush, but Trump needs to "accomplish the feat" in the next two months.Otherwise, he will be paralyzed by a wave of criticism and obvious sabotage from internal detractors, and the failure of his first term will seem to him (and everyone else) an "accident."
Since this was written over 10 days ago, looking at various military blogs and mappers, it seems that the Ukrainian “offensive” in Belgorod has gone the way of all their other soufflé offensives, maybe they need some French “chefs” which Macaroon keeps threatening to send.
the war keeps evolving in more or less a predictable direction
Interesting. thanks for sharing.
Place sanctions on China and India and any country buying oil and gas from Russia and you might as well shut down the US economy. Just in the US auto manufacturing sector very few US cars have more than 50% US made parts. That means you have to shut down all US auto production - they won't have to parts to make them.
It's not just retail that would be catastrophically affected - It is manufacturing just as much.
Even the EU needs Russian gas and oil despite the sanctions - So they are banned as well.
So add these new sanctions and wait for the 3rd world country effect.
What you're saying is all true. Also, there probably isn't enough spare capacity to replace Russian oil on the market. Oil prices would skyrocket