India Loses Its Top Fighter Jet, Implications for Future Air Combat
3 Advanced Rafale Fighters Downed
India has lost its top fighter jet, the Rafale EH. Three Rafale jets were shot down plus at least one Sukhoi and one MIG plus a large Israel reconnaissance drone were destroyed by Pakistan's Air Force.
Until the latest air combat, India had acquired 34 Rafale jet fighters. These are multimission platforms suitable for all combat aviation missions: air superiority and air defense, close air support, in-depth strikes, reconnaissance, anti-ship strikes and nuclear deterrence. In the latest confrontation, which apparently lasted around an hour, the Rafales were carrying SCALP cruise missiles, which in the UK are known as Storm Shadow. These missiles have been used extensively in Ukraine. The Rafales also had MICA (Missile d'Interception, de Combat et d'Auto-défense) air-to-air missiles. At least one of these missiles was found near the crash site of the first Rafale that was downed. That Rafale had a tail designation of BS-001, meaning it was the first Rafale delivered to the Indian Airport. BS means Single Seat.
The combat that took place was at a distance, not a classical close encounter dog fight. Pakistan was operating over Pakistani air space when its J-10 jet (Chinese but co-produced in Pakistan) launched Chinese PL-15 air to air missiles. Some parts of a PL-15 missile have been recovered on Indian territory, including part of its AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar.
The PL-15 is China's answer to the US AIM-120D AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) which is an all weather, beyond visual range missile. It has a range of 200 to 300 km (124 to 186 miles). although the export version is 145 km (90 miles). It is assumed Pakistan has the export model. The PL-15 is pretty fast, once launched its speed is around Mach-5 (6,173 kph or 3,836 mph).
By way of contrast, the French MICA air to air missile has a significantly shorter range, around 60 to 80 km (37 to 50 miles). Thus the Chinese PL-15 as a stand off weapon has a significant advantage. It seems that paid off in the recent encounter.
The US Air Force has put most of its bets on two capabilities: stealth for platforms such as the F-22 and F-35, and long range interdiction with air to air missiles in warfare described as "beyond visual range." Consequently, fighters such as the F-35 have traded off maneuverability to emphasize stealth, and long range air to air missiles to support BVR encounters.
The Rafale is not a stealth platform and while in many ways technologically advanced, is not as BVR capable as Chinese-designed jets and air to air missiles. Furthermore, even the AMRAAM seems to fall short of the mark in any competition, meaning that the AMRAAM will need to be replaced with a longer range and faster air to air missile.
Russia also has a BVR air to air missile, the R-77 which is being upgraded. A new version, R-77M, designed for Russia's new Su-57 fighter, has a dual pulse motor (like Chine's PL-15) and AESA radar. Quite possibly it incorporates Chinese technology. Russia also appears to have a scramjet powered version of the R-77. Nothing is known of the range of either missile, although the earlier R-77 was inferior in range to AMRAAM.
What happened to India in the latest firefight is bad news for NATO, which appears to be falling behind technologically and it is a warning to the United States to speed up development of an AMRAAM replacement. The US has a new replacement for AMRAAM, designated as the AIM-260 JATM (Joint Advanced Tactical Missile). As of now, it is in low rate production and has not achieved initial operational capability. Supposedly it has a range of 200 km (124 miles), putting it at the low end compared to the PL-15.
There is still a lot more to be learned about the latest encounter between the Pakistani and Indian Air Forces. There may be more bad news.
If accurate these reports are indeed bad news for US/NATO forces, but good news for the peace-loving nations of the world. With China's aircraft and missiles being so lethal it's less likely that NATO will create another war, as it did in Yugoslavia (1999), Afghanistan, (2001-2020), Iraq (2003-2009), Libya (2011) and Syria (2011- ).
It seems likely as well that very effective anti-aircraft missiles along the lines of the Chinese PL-15 will be developed by other nations too. Even the Houthis are building hypersonic missiles. Now they just need active radar homing, which while not a trivial technological hurdle, probably won't be long in coming.
We may be witnessing the demise of the US/NATO war doctrine, which was predicated on complete air superiority and invincible naval power. Both of those pillars are looking very shaky in today's world.
That is disturbing. The only NATO vs Eastern match up we have not yet seen in Ukraine was air to air. We lost deterrent credibility with all other platforms. Now we appear to have lost deterrent credibility in air superiority combat.