Limited Ceasefire Agreed --at least between the US and Russia
Will Ukraine and Europe Support the deal?
A preliminary readout of the Trump-Putin telephone call says that the two leaders agreed on a limited ceasefire arrangement covering energy facilities in Ukraine and Russia. It is questionable if Ukraine will accept the deal.
“The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.”
The Kremlin said “It was emphasized [presumably by President Putin] that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv."
The negotiations will take place in "a bilateral mode" meaning no Ukrainians and no Europeans. The sides agreed on "experts groups" to work out the terms of a possible agreement to settle the Ukraine conflict. The "bilateral mode" separates the US and Russia from immediately having to deal with Ukraine. The deal between Putin and Trump also clearly displaces the Europeans, particularly the EU and NATO, where Washington no longer finds either the EU or NATO helpful or constructive.
It appears this means the Russians will stop its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and Ukraine will stop long range attacks targeting Russia's energy infrastructure. In Ukraine's case this would mean Ukraine won't attack refineries, oil and gas transit hubs, pipelines and fuel storage sites. Russia will stop attacking power plants, electricity distribution systems, and other parts of Ukraine's energy distribution system.
There is a good chance Ukraine will not honor the Trump-Putin agreement.
The limited ceasefire is likely to be set for 30 days, but probably could be extended if the parties agree.
The talks covered other bilateral issues beyond Ukraine.
The US Embassy in Moscow also reported: "The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel."
The US Moscow embassy also noted "The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved."
There are many questions going forward including Ukrainian resistance to the limited ceasefire and the upcoming talks "in the Middle East." However, Ukraine does not have much room for maneuver, since the US has now discounted Europe's involvement, taking away the political support Ukraine is trying to leverage.
very wise you mention already in the head-line “….- at least between US & Russia. Here in Europe, especially in Germany these sort of politicians are loosing their mind, Some in this forsaken “ampel” government leaking their most absurd idea: Baerbock to become President of the UN General Assembly. Ok when it would be to destroy the UN fine, but this Baerbock can’t even speak in her native language a single sentences without errors, not to mention English and other language she dosn’t speak
Seems a sensible way to start. Russia does not lose much, winter is over and blowing up more power station infrastructure is militarily meaningless. Against that, they get some respite from Ukrainian drone attacks against their refineries, which are likewise painful but militarily irrelevant.
From the Ukraine perspective, it sure looks like they are getting sold down the river.
The US started this mess (remember Victoria Nuland of 'f**k the EU' fame boasting that the Maidan revolution had cost the US $5B to bring about) and is now washing its hands of it.
Question is enforcement, what happens if either side violates the deal? Does the US cut off or massively boost Ukraine arms, depending on who is at fault?