Israel's new foreign minister, Eli Cohen, has taken a call from Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday, January 4th following a call between Cohen and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken the day before. Cohen had been approached by Lavrov requesting a call, and that request was discussed between Israel and the United States before it took place. In addition, according to most press reports, the US passed a message from the United States to Lavrov. No one can yet say what was in the message.
Cohen has barely had time to get the keys to the men's room in his new office and he is already engaged in high level diplomatic talks.
Israel's foreign ministry let it be known that there would be a call with Cohen and Lavrov, that led to the Ukrainian government reacting in anger, claiming that the Israeli foreign minister should have first talked to Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba. Israel did apparently request a call with Kuleba, but did not plan on speaking to him until after the Lavrov phone call. Ukraine put out direct threats to Israel, claiming that if they did not coordinate with Ukraine, Ukraine's foreign minister would block future contracts with Israel's foreign ministry.
Notwithstanding these threats, the US State Department spokesman Ned Price said "Israel has a relationship with Russia. Israel’s relationship with Russia looks different from the relationship the United States has with Russia. That’s okay."
"We’ve consistently made the point that a number of countries around the world have engaged with the Russians in an effort to bring about an end to their illegal, unprovoked, unjustified war," Price said.
Price's statement tells us that the purpose of the message to Lavrov through Israel was aimed at communicating ideas on resolving the Ukraine conflict.
This is not the first time Israeli has been involved in mediation efforts with Russia on Ukraine. In early March, 2022 then-Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett flew to Moscow at Russian President Putin's invitation to discuss Ukraine. Immediately thereafter, Bennett spoke directly to Ukrainian President Zelensky and Bennett flew on from Moscow to meet with German chancellor Olaf Scholz. Bennett's discussions with Putin were coordinated with the United States, France and Germany. Despite a long session with Putin (the meeting stretched over three hours), no positive results came from the effort. Later, Turkey played the same mediatory role between Ukraine and Russia, hosting negotiations. However, the Ukrainians backed out and did not continue to participate in that effort.
For the past few months it has been widely reported that the US worked to persuade Zelensky to be more forthcoming. He has steadfastly refused and, under pressure, Zelensky released a peace plan that called for a complete Russian capitulation and war crimes trials. That proposal was summarily rejected by the Russian side.
It is widely believed there is a clash between the NSC and the Department of State on negotiating with the Russians, with the NSC taking a hard line and State pushing for a diplomatic solution. While Israel has been in close touch with both the NSC and State Department (in mid-January NSC Adviser Jake Sullivan is planning to visit Israel to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu), the current initiative appears to be promoted only by the State Department. Both State and NSC are also trying to convince Netanyahu to back a two state solution with the Palestinians, something that is quite unlikely given the makeup of Israel's new government.
Times have changed since last March. The Russian offensive is stalled. There is worry that Russia will further mobilize, even bring Belarus in as a partner, to try and turn the tide. But Ukraine believes it is winning and that it can chase the Russians out (although Ukraine keeps asking for more and better weapons to do the job). Western arsenals are badly depleted and with a resurgent China, the US finds itself nearly empty handed if a conflict breaks out. Russia is hinting it will bomb incoming supply lines if more weapons are bought into Ukraine, and Russia is not shy about saying it is fighting NATO as much as Ukraine.
All of this augurs for a deal if one can be found.
Israel, beyond the Ukraine war, wants to improve its status with Russia. Israel and the international Jewish community are concerned about the welfare of Jews in Russia --the former Moscow Chief rabbi, now in exile, has called on Russian Jews to leave before it is too late-- and Israel is also worried about the growing military alliance between Iran and Russia. The Netanyahu administration has already carried out a raid on the Damascus airport, probably testing the deconfliction deal they have with the Russians.
Meanwhile, the situation inside Russia is growing more tense and difficult. The heavy casualties in the past few days with hundreds of Russian soldiers killed or wounded, is causing alarm at home.
Perhaps there is a window of opportunity, but only if it is supported by the parties, especially the United States.
Any deal which leads to a loss of Ukrainian territory won't be a peace deal, but just a pause in the fighting. The Ukrainians are right, the war will end only when Putin is dead, or at least out of office (probably the same thing).
So long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their country we should stop talking about deals. If the Ukrainians decide to compromise, then we support that.
The combined GDP of the Western allies is somewhere around 20 to 30 times that of Russia. If we can't out last Russia in this war, then NATO is revealed to be a joke.
If the Taliban can run both America and Russia out of Afghanistan, then the Ukrainians can defeat the Russians.
No more deal talk from us please. That's up to the Ukrainians.