"It is hard to be sure what led the Trump administration to believe that the Russians would accept NATO states providing security for Ukraine."
As I said in the previous peice before the 20 August conference, any security guarantee that smacked of having NATO or the EU anywhere near it would be a non-starter with the Russians. Apart from wishful thinking, there is no logical reason why Trump would have thought this was a starter.
The problem is that the US is trying to have it both ways and that satisfies neither party. The US is part of NATO and is directly providing material and intelligence support to one of the belligerents, making them a co-belligerent. On the other hand the Trump is trying to present himself as 'an honest broker' in trying to find peace for both sides. Trump cannot have it both ways, no matter how much he wishes it were so. You cannot run with the foxes and hunt with the hounds at the same time, and the Russians know it. They will talk with Trump and establish a relationship with him, but the Russians know that they can not trust him.
I predict the talks on security guarantees will go nowhere. I predict also that the fighting will only stop once the Ukrainian Army collapses and the Russians achieve all their political and operational objectives on the ground. Only then will any talks begin to bear fruit once NATO, including the US, has no other option but to recognize reality.
Well stated. The best security guarantee that Ukraine can hope for is to declare its neutrality to the world, as some other respected European nations have done. Any attempt to create a 'NATO Article 5-lite' situation by the West will be rejected by Russia.
The self-interested mooks in NATO desperately do not want their gravy-train to end. They can see that a potential outcome of a Russian victory in Ukraine is the creation of a pan-European security architecture which creates indivisible security for everyone, including Russia. And that would spell the end of NATO and all its cushy, pointless jobs.
NATO should've been laid to rest thirty years ago following the collapse of the USSR. But no. The West revived the zombie in order to harass and terrify other countries around the globe. Well, we all know what it takes to kill a zombie. NATO's end will not be pretty.
Which neutral countries? Longtime neutral Sweden and Finland?
Switzerland is Switzerland, and participates in NATO's Partnership for Peace, as does neutral-ish Austria, which is in the EU. What else is there? Ireland, also PPP. Why have most Central and Eastern European countries sought NATO membership?
Had NATO been "laid to rest," Vlad would have started with the Baltics.
Agree completely with a minor twist. Trump already knows and accepts Russia getting the Donbas. His involving the feckless paper tiger NATO is merely a delaying tactic to kick the can down the road until Russian boots occupy the parts of the Donbas still held by Ukraine. It may seem heartless but it is just accepting reality. Ukraine can not only not win, they are on the verge of a military collapse. They've simply run out of trained bodies, and regardless of personal bravery the results won't change. How many know this and are reluctant to die for what the politicians will give up anyways.
EU politicians and NATO boffins went all-in on the defeat of Russia. Any outcome that instead gives Russia what it demands is existentially bad for their political and military prospects.
There will not be a negotiated deal. Russia will achieve through military means what it couldn't achieve through diplomatic means and no one in the West will stop them, because they can't.
Hmmm. But the alternative to a negotiated deal is complete Ukrainian collapse and very possibly Ukraines disappearance as a country. Do the Neo-cons want that? If so. why?
Stephen, why do you consider Russia as one of America's leading adversaries in 2025? I worked in Crimea on water resource management until Feb 2014. It is not that Crimea needs NKK water. They could efficiently manage their own resources but why would they if NKK water arrives at minimal cost.
“Vladimir Putin’s generals would seek to deepen their substantial footprint in the strategically vital theater with new military bases”.
Why does that ring a bell? Oh yes, it’s what the U.S. has done all over the balkans and is currently doing in Moldova and Armenia. Our own military acts as if the only country in the world with a right to protect its own territories and people is ours. What is evil or even just a little wrong with Russia’s leaders doing the exact same thing for their territory and people? The bases and allies we have in Europe already border directly on Russia. Russia has no bases or allies on our borders.
I don't get this theatre. Trump is negotiating peace while US reconnaissance drones are still patrolling the Black Sea, looking for targets in Crimea, that then will be targeted by Ukraine. Trump should have walked away from this, rather than making this his war.
I guess the only remaining goal is to harm Russia and Russians as much as possible while the war is still going on. The more Russians will be killed the better and its the only way in the Western view to have Russia back off. It's cynical and perverted but the only goal that remains. However, the more Russians are dying, even more Ukrainians will vanish. This brings us to a simple conclusion. The longer this drags on the more people will die. It also shows that the West has no sympathy for Ukrainians either. If the Russians will win this, there will be a point where Ukraine has to face this hard truth and then the West can only hope that Ukraine won't turn against its western supporters.
A war isn’t over until one side wins. The modern world doesn’t like winners and losers. It always wants to split the difference and give everyone participation trophies. America hasn’t been willing to win a war since Hiroshima. Putin is in it to win.
No - it's a big ask for the Europeans to accept that Russia has won. My guess is that it will take another year or so to get them to accept this. The reason is that they hate Russians. Just as they hate Israelis. Hence the similarity in Europe supporting Ukrainians and supporting Fakestinians.
Nonsense. The Europeans do not 'hate Israelis - they have been supplying Israel with all sorts of armament until very recently, and have only limited some supplies because of the inhuman and barbaric Israeli genocide in Gaza.
No. That thinking is the problem. One side defeats the other who surrenders because they don’t have a choice and are unable to continue. Do you think Japan wanted to stop? No they surrender when they knew they were beaten. Did Germany agree to stop? No way. They were beaten. Have you studied history?
How can we seriously discuss this endless "Santa Barbara" that repeats itself over and over again, only with different music, actors, and lighting? Russia knows what is "unacceptable" for the West; the West and the United States know exactly (!) what is unacceptable for Russia. Everyone knows and understands everything, but they make silly or smart faces (depending on the situation) and try to pass off this ersatz diplomacy as a full-fledged one. "Will NATO be in Ukraine? Security guarantees for Ukraine"? Don't be ridiculous... The "contradictions" and "inconsistencies" between the United States and Europe, as well as the delegation of "independence" in decision-making to Europe and NATO, are particularly amusing. When did they manage to "invisibly" break free from the United States' tutelage? Have we missed something? If anyone can provide security guarantees to Ukraine, it is Russia. Of course, this requires the fulfillment of the minimum conditions that are well-known to everyone. And then it all starts again... Trump has learned his roles well.
Aside from the Donbass (both DPR and LPR) being already legally incorporated into the Russian Federation (RF) as well as Zaparozhskaya and Hersonskaya Oblasts, the Crimea being part of the RF makes it absolutely necessary that those four areas be included in any peace settlement. Why? Because the water supply for the Crimea is via a Soviet-built canal from the Dnieper River originating near to the city of Herson, but from the left bank. Also, If Russia controls the entire Sea of Azov (DPR, Zaparozhskaya and Hersonskaya regions) there will be NO PROBLEMS with Ukrainian ships passing through the Kerch Strait (where the Crimean Bridge is built) as there will only be Russian ships passing though that area. The LPR will be 100% Russian controlled by next week.
Water supply for Crimea has been an issues since the Russian takeover in 2014 (when Ukraine blocked waterflow in the canal). Any settlement would have to include many technical and utility provisions including water, utilities, grid, roadways and lots more.
Yes, that is exactly correct, but since the southern part of the Hersonskaya oblast is now Russian controlled since 2022, there have been no water problems at all for the Crimea. I am just stating that Russia will NOT return the southern part of that oblast. Nor will it return any part of the shores of the Sea of Azov. When dealing with the Ukrainian, ownership is the only answer. Look at all of the problems that were encountered with the “lease” of the Sevastopol Port faculties for the Russian fleet whilst the Crimea was controlled by the Ukrainians.
This ‘boots on the ground’ issue by US/NATO was reloaded many times prior and it was always a dead-end. NATO states are simply trying to fabricate a formula where they play the winner in a war that they are actually losing presently. What are they playing for? Time! The exact duplication of the game what Mutti Merkel admitted verbally, directly into the face of Putin after the start of the war. The context was a discussion about Ukraine’s arming, prior to February of 2022. Putin’s reaction was: ‘Then we should have started the war earlier.’
Sentinel-1( satellite system, part of the European Union's Copernicus Programme) reported that 50 of the 150 Western European weapon and ammunition manufacturing plants are working on major enlargements, adding over 7 million square meters of space total. Hungary is setting up a factory to deliver 1.1 million 155mm shells a year starting with 2026. This is in cooperation with Rheinmetall of Germany. This clearly indicates that NATO is planning to babysit Zelensky until a major rearmament program can be carried out. The recipe will be the deeply retarded repetition of the present act where a 21st century major nuclear power will be placed under military pressure with WWII approaches.
The political developments are already in position. Romania and Moldova, two nations with weak economies and heavy corruption problems are lined up as the new proxies after Ukraine will be depleted to the last Ukrainian. Serbia is on the edge of a EU infected colored revolution and Hungary also has the EU point man, a Mr. Peter Magyar who is working to undermine Victor Orban. In Romania they are building the largest Airport for F-35 planes. (They might be operational by now.) The Russian view is that nothing changed; the players are dancing around to repeat the 1918 to 1922 attempt where over a dozen countries moved in to take over Siberia. See the book on Amazon: A Nasty Little War.
As one who supports Trump on many issues, its both disappointing and unsurprising that Trump helped botch this. It is yet another sign he does not understand the issues or the history. All the West ever had to do was renounce NATO membership for Ukraine and Russia would not have invaded the second time. The American people have not been told the whole truth about the first one. Looks like the Europeans and Zelensky foiled Trumps efforts for peace. Let America walk away. No more $ for a non Democratic fascist embedded hell hole.
If Putin and the Russians had been clear enough in word and action, the NATO clowns wouldn't be insisting on still playing these games at this late stage. I blame the Russian leadership for tolerating this show. In any case, if Ukraine needs any security guarantees, it is to guarantee their security from the NATO countries, not from Russia. It is NATO, not Russia, that has put them where they are now.
- Drop rhetoric of British and French troops being stationed in Ukraine.
- Stick a new UK + French military base in east Poland: “Fort FRUK.” And rather than seek to fly British military aircraft over Ukraine, ask the 47th President to consider re-joining the Open Skies Treaty (which Russia itself wants to rejoin), so that the Baltic states have better aerial visibility of any future Russian troop build-up. This gives forewarning.
- Border security handled by the UN/Turkey.
- Paid for by a small levy on a return of moderate energy flow from Russia to Europe (one set of Nord Stream pipelines).
Agree it *in tandem* with territorial concessions.
Combine the promise of a security guarantee for Ukraine *with* going much closer to Russia’s demands on territory, that are not going to budge.
Only if you give promise for such a security guarantee to Ukraine *first* can the US then push much harder on territorial concessions (and language/religious rights) – which are necessary to end the bloodbath and prevent further escalation.
"It is hard to be sure what led the Trump administration to believe that the Russians would accept NATO states providing security for Ukraine."
As I said in the previous peice before the 20 August conference, any security guarantee that smacked of having NATO or the EU anywhere near it would be a non-starter with the Russians. Apart from wishful thinking, there is no logical reason why Trump would have thought this was a starter.
The problem is that the US is trying to have it both ways and that satisfies neither party. The US is part of NATO and is directly providing material and intelligence support to one of the belligerents, making them a co-belligerent. On the other hand the Trump is trying to present himself as 'an honest broker' in trying to find peace for both sides. Trump cannot have it both ways, no matter how much he wishes it were so. You cannot run with the foxes and hunt with the hounds at the same time, and the Russians know it. They will talk with Trump and establish a relationship with him, but the Russians know that they can not trust him.
I predict the talks on security guarantees will go nowhere. I predict also that the fighting will only stop once the Ukrainian Army collapses and the Russians achieve all their political and operational objectives on the ground. Only then will any talks begin to bear fruit once NATO, including the US, has no other option but to recognize reality.
Well stated. The best security guarantee that Ukraine can hope for is to declare its neutrality to the world, as some other respected European nations have done. Any attempt to create a 'NATO Article 5-lite' situation by the West will be rejected by Russia.
The self-interested mooks in NATO desperately do not want their gravy-train to end. They can see that a potential outcome of a Russian victory in Ukraine is the creation of a pan-European security architecture which creates indivisible security for everyone, including Russia. And that would spell the end of NATO and all its cushy, pointless jobs.
NATO should've been laid to rest thirty years ago following the collapse of the USSR. But no. The West revived the zombie in order to harass and terrify other countries around the globe. Well, we all know what it takes to kill a zombie. NATO's end will not be pretty.
Which neutral countries? Longtime neutral Sweden and Finland?
Switzerland is Switzerland, and participates in NATO's Partnership for Peace, as does neutral-ish Austria, which is in the EU. What else is there? Ireland, also PPP. Why have most Central and Eastern European countries sought NATO membership?
Had NATO been "laid to rest," Vlad would have started with the Baltics.
Reality is not something the West is equipped to deal with.
Agree completely with a minor twist. Trump already knows and accepts Russia getting the Donbas. His involving the feckless paper tiger NATO is merely a delaying tactic to kick the can down the road until Russian boots occupy the parts of the Donbas still held by Ukraine. It may seem heartless but it is just accepting reality. Ukraine can not only not win, they are on the verge of a military collapse. They've simply run out of trained bodies, and regardless of personal bravery the results won't change. How many know this and are reluctant to die for what the politicians will give up anyways.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
No surprise the Russians won't go for the plan where Ukraine joins NATO in every respect except officially.
The Washington Times’ story seems bizarre: what do they imagine a peace deal would look like, given Russia’s position in the war?
How it could it possibly end without Ukraine ceding substantial territory?
This sounds like neo-con fantasy, or simply a desire to keep fighting no matter what.
The idea is to undermine a negotiated deal.
That is the likely motive, in my opinion.
EU politicians and NATO boffins went all-in on the defeat of Russia. Any outcome that instead gives Russia what it demands is existentially bad for their political and military prospects.
"EU politicians and NATO boffins went all-in on the defeat of Russia."
Hardly.
There will not be a negotiated deal. Russia will achieve through military means what it couldn't achieve through diplomatic means and no one in the West will stop them, because they can't.
Exactly.
Hmmm. But the alternative to a negotiated deal is complete Ukrainian collapse and very possibly Ukraines disappearance as a country. Do the Neo-cons want that? If so. why?
Stephen, why do you consider Russia as one of America's leading adversaries in 2025? I worked in Crimea on water resource management until Feb 2014. It is not that Crimea needs NKK water. They could efficiently manage their own resources but why would they if NKK water arrives at minimal cost.
Presume you answered your own comment
Zelensky and NATO Trumped Trump again. When will he stop his delusion of a possible peace?
“Vladimir Putin’s generals would seek to deepen their substantial footprint in the strategically vital theater with new military bases”.
Why does that ring a bell? Oh yes, it’s what the U.S. has done all over the balkans and is currently doing in Moldova and Armenia. Our own military acts as if the only country in the world with a right to protect its own territories and people is ours. What is evil or even just a little wrong with Russia’s leaders doing the exact same thing for their territory and people? The bases and allies we have in Europe already border directly on Russia. Russia has no bases or allies on our borders.
I don't get this theatre. Trump is negotiating peace while US reconnaissance drones are still patrolling the Black Sea, looking for targets in Crimea, that then will be targeted by Ukraine. Trump should have walked away from this, rather than making this his war.
I guess the only remaining goal is to harm Russia and Russians as much as possible while the war is still going on. The more Russians will be killed the better and its the only way in the Western view to have Russia back off. It's cynical and perverted but the only goal that remains. However, the more Russians are dying, even more Ukrainians will vanish. This brings us to a simple conclusion. The longer this drags on the more people will die. It also shows that the West has no sympathy for Ukrainians either. If the Russians will win this, there will be a point where Ukraine has to face this hard truth and then the West can only hope that Ukraine won't turn against its western supporters.
I believe that history will have a dim view on what has been done to Ukraine, by the west/nato/US/UK; etc.
A war isn’t over until one side wins. The modern world doesn’t like winners and losers. It always wants to split the difference and give everyone participation trophies. America hasn’t been willing to win a war since Hiroshima. Putin is in it to win.
No - it's a big ask for the Europeans to accept that Russia has won. My guess is that it will take another year or so to get them to accept this. The reason is that they hate Russians. Just as they hate Israelis. Hence the similarity in Europe supporting Ukrainians and supporting Fakestinians.
Nonsense. The Europeans do not 'hate Israelis - they have been supplying Israel with all sorts of armament until very recently, and have only limited some supplies because of the inhuman and barbaric Israeli genocide in Gaza.
Of course Europeans hate Jews. They've been murdering Jews for a millenium now. Much more than they hate Muslims.
When Putin wins the euros will not have to accept it. Fait accompli.
No, war isn't over until both sides agree to stop.
No. That thinking is the problem. One side defeats the other who surrenders because they don’t have a choice and are unable to continue. Do you think Japan wanted to stop? No they surrender when they knew they were beaten. Did Germany agree to stop? No way. They were beaten. Have you studied history?
I have, and nothing ended until the losing side decided to quit.
How can we seriously discuss this endless "Santa Barbara" that repeats itself over and over again, only with different music, actors, and lighting? Russia knows what is "unacceptable" for the West; the West and the United States know exactly (!) what is unacceptable for Russia. Everyone knows and understands everything, but they make silly or smart faces (depending on the situation) and try to pass off this ersatz diplomacy as a full-fledged one. "Will NATO be in Ukraine? Security guarantees for Ukraine"? Don't be ridiculous... The "contradictions" and "inconsistencies" between the United States and Europe, as well as the delegation of "independence" in decision-making to Europe and NATO, are particularly amusing. When did they manage to "invisibly" break free from the United States' tutelage? Have we missed something? If anyone can provide security guarantees to Ukraine, it is Russia. Of course, this requires the fulfillment of the minimum conditions that are well-known to everyone. And then it all starts again... Trump has learned his roles well.
The leader of the free world has to be seen doing something, no matter how futile that something is.
Russia will set the terms, NATO will have to swallow them, and then the real fun in Europe starts.
Aside from the Donbass (both DPR and LPR) being already legally incorporated into the Russian Federation (RF) as well as Zaparozhskaya and Hersonskaya Oblasts, the Crimea being part of the RF makes it absolutely necessary that those four areas be included in any peace settlement. Why? Because the water supply for the Crimea is via a Soviet-built canal from the Dnieper River originating near to the city of Herson, but from the left bank. Also, If Russia controls the entire Sea of Azov (DPR, Zaparozhskaya and Hersonskaya regions) there will be NO PROBLEMS with Ukrainian ships passing through the Kerch Strait (where the Crimean Bridge is built) as there will only be Russian ships passing though that area. The LPR will be 100% Russian controlled by next week.
Water supply for Crimea has been an issues since the Russian takeover in 2014 (when Ukraine blocked waterflow in the canal). Any settlement would have to include many technical and utility provisions including water, utilities, grid, roadways and lots more.
Yes, that is exactly correct, but since the southern part of the Hersonskaya oblast is now Russian controlled since 2022, there have been no water problems at all for the Crimea. I am just stating that Russia will NOT return the southern part of that oblast. Nor will it return any part of the shores of the Sea of Azov. When dealing with the Ukrainian, ownership is the only answer. Look at all of the problems that were encountered with the “lease” of the Sevastopol Port faculties for the Russian fleet whilst the Crimea was controlled by the Ukrainians.
Duke it out on the battlefield it be.
This ‘boots on the ground’ issue by US/NATO was reloaded many times prior and it was always a dead-end. NATO states are simply trying to fabricate a formula where they play the winner in a war that they are actually losing presently. What are they playing for? Time! The exact duplication of the game what Mutti Merkel admitted verbally, directly into the face of Putin after the start of the war. The context was a discussion about Ukraine’s arming, prior to February of 2022. Putin’s reaction was: ‘Then we should have started the war earlier.’
Sentinel-1( satellite system, part of the European Union's Copernicus Programme) reported that 50 of the 150 Western European weapon and ammunition manufacturing plants are working on major enlargements, adding over 7 million square meters of space total. Hungary is setting up a factory to deliver 1.1 million 155mm shells a year starting with 2026. This is in cooperation with Rheinmetall of Germany. This clearly indicates that NATO is planning to babysit Zelensky until a major rearmament program can be carried out. The recipe will be the deeply retarded repetition of the present act where a 21st century major nuclear power will be placed under military pressure with WWII approaches.
The political developments are already in position. Romania and Moldova, two nations with weak economies and heavy corruption problems are lined up as the new proxies after Ukraine will be depleted to the last Ukrainian. Serbia is on the edge of a EU infected colored revolution and Hungary also has the EU point man, a Mr. Peter Magyar who is working to undermine Victor Orban. In Romania they are building the largest Airport for F-35 planes. (They might be operational by now.) The Russian view is that nothing changed; the players are dancing around to repeat the 1918 to 1922 attempt where over a dozen countries moved in to take over Siberia. See the book on Amazon: A Nasty Little War.
As one who supports Trump on many issues, its both disappointing and unsurprising that Trump helped botch this. It is yet another sign he does not understand the issues or the history. All the West ever had to do was renounce NATO membership for Ukraine and Russia would not have invaded the second time. The American people have not been told the whole truth about the first one. Looks like the Europeans and Zelensky foiled Trumps efforts for peace. Let America walk away. No more $ for a non Democratic fascist embedded hell hole.
If Putin and the Russians had been clear enough in word and action, the NATO clowns wouldn't be insisting on still playing these games at this late stage. I blame the Russian leadership for tolerating this show. In any case, if Ukraine needs any security guarantees, it is to guarantee their security from the NATO countries, not from Russia. It is NATO, not Russia, that has put them where they are now.
How about North Korean peacekeepers in Ukraine as a compromise?
Thanks for your great work Stephen!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Better plan:
- The US does, as of 2023, have a small (~10,000 troop) permanent military base in Poland: https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/permanent-garrison-of-the-us-forces-in-poland
- Drop rhetoric of British and French troops being stationed in Ukraine.
- Stick a new UK + French military base in east Poland: “Fort FRUK.” And rather than seek to fly British military aircraft over Ukraine, ask the 47th President to consider re-joining the Open Skies Treaty (which Russia itself wants to rejoin), so that the Baltic states have better aerial visibility of any future Russian troop build-up. This gives forewarning.
- Border security handled by the UN/Turkey.
- Paid for by a small levy on a return of moderate energy flow from Russia to Europe (one set of Nord Stream pipelines).
And why would the Russians agree to any of this?
Agree it *in tandem* with territorial concessions.
Combine the promise of a security guarantee for Ukraine *with* going much closer to Russia’s demands on territory, that are not going to budge.
Only if you give promise for such a security guarantee to Ukraine *first* can the US then push much harder on territorial concessions (and language/religious rights) – which are necessary to end the bloodbath and prevent further escalation.
This may encourage Ukraine to deal, but since it doesn't address Russia's security concerns, it's a non starter.