"No" To Article 5-like Security Guarantees
The idea of offering unilateral US security guarantees to Ukraine is an appalling idea that risks war with Russia. It means the US is willing to go to war to defend Ukraine, and gives the Ukrainians a license to stir up trouble, instigate provocations, and drag America into a confrontation with Russia.
Such a guarantee imperils Europe. If the US sends troops to Ukraine, the Russians will counterattack and their forces won’t simply focus on Ukraine. Russia will attack the entire NATO edifice. A new world war will start, and the consequences in lives and property will make Ukraine look like small potatoes.
Every study (including numerous simulations) show that a war in Europe will be devastating, kill millions, and lead to the rapid defeat of NATO forces. NATO is not prepared, nor is the United States on its own. We are not able to produce enough needed weapons, our army in a peer to peer conflict is completely untested, and we would have to support an expeditionary force thousands of miles from home in an intense large-scale conflict.
Europe’s territory is poorly defended, European armies are under-staffed, Europe’s air defenses are thin to non-existent, and the stockpile of weapons is pathetically small. Europe is no match for Russia whose war machine is fully industrialized. The only remaining cog in the Russian machinery is full mobilization, but if Ukraine is allowed to start a world war, Russia will massively upscale its army.
Worse still, if an Article 5 like security deal is actually invoked, it will open the US to a confrontation in the Pacific as China won’t hesitate to move if the US is bogged down in Ukraine and Europe. Our ability to defend Taiwan will be compromised. North Korea could attack as well, destabilizing the Korean peninsula and risking US forces stationed there. Even Japan may find itself in great peril, and can expect the loss of strategic islands, or much more.
When you think about it, the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine is only a ploy to erase America’s strategic independence.
This is exactly the same issue that scuttled the 1919 Versailles Treaty ratification in the US Senate. Instead of Congress being the sole decision-maker deciding if the US should go to war, the Versailles Treaty would have transferred that Constitutional responsibility to the new League of Nations.
An Article 5 like US undertaking for Ukraine would also remove Congress from responsibility for declaring war.
NATO’s Article 5 is a little different. Should NATO actually invoke Article 5 the member states will need to decide on what action each individually will take in response. A Ukraine Security Guarantee takes away flexibility and creates an unprecedented legal obligation to go to war. If this is what is intended, and it seems to be so, it is a dreadful idea that threatens America’s Constitution even more than the rejected Versailles Treaty.
Those negotiating on the US behalf, most recently in Berlin, simply don’t appear to understand what they are offering to Ukraine and the immense risks such an offer entails.
President Trump keeps insisting that the Ukraine war is not his war and he wants to stay out of the conflict (although, quite honestly, the rhetoric does not match the reality). An Article 5 like security guarantee makes the Ukraine war America’s war. It is no surprise this is Zelensky’s goal: drive the Americans into the conflict and trap them into going to war against Russia.
Nothing could be a worse and more dangerous outcome. President Trump needs to think about the implications of the offer made in Berlin. It would be beneficial to take it off the table before it is too late.
This is the general problem with NATO. Security guarantees only have worth if willing to defend. Expanding into eastern Europe was idiotic. Are Americans ready to die for Estonia, Lithuania? Did Americans ever voted for willing to die for them? I bet the average American doesn't even know where to find them on a map.
I believe article 5 only talks about supporting the other. The US could do that with financial support, weapon deliveries,... but with thousands stationed in Europe they will be in the crosshair. I still have hope for rationality from the US but the EU is lost. I've never seen such morally depraved humans in my life with zero respect for democracy and their citizens. No government ever survived making people poor. This is the hope we have, the EU collapsing before starting a nuclear war.
Even when I say I have more hope for the US if you look at politics I see both with the democrats and republicans the same kind of people as in the EU. Trump might represent the American spirit but has to go authoritarian just to push back, but like all authoritarian leaders he gets lost in nitpicking about trivial things. At some point the government becomes that mosquito around your head and people turn against you. Just focus on the things that matter.
After successfully having manifactured reality, the European Commission and a large segment of European politicians, media and academia have convinced themselves that they can manifest victory.