Prigozhin's Strange Attack on Russia's Leadership
Prigozhin's Strange Attack on Russia's Leadership
He says he did not mean Putin, but everyone in Moscow thinks otherwise
Yesterday in my Bakhmut update it appeared the Ukrainians launched a major offensive on the southern flank of Bakhmut. The evidence for this was news reports, Ukrainian claims of a big victory, and the head of PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin claiming that Russian soldiers did not fight, but ran away, and that maybe 500 of them were killed. He went on to claim he would fix the problem, although it was not his area of responsibility.
But was this what actually happened? Even the Institute for the Study of War, which tends to be strongly pro-Ukrainian (although it tries to keep some objectivity), isn’t so sure because it was unable to confirm the Ukrainian success “visually.”
At least one excellent video analyst on You Tube, describes the action by Ukraine as a sort of reconnaissance in force, but one that only chased away a small group of Russian soldiers. The channel goes on to say that the chance for any Ukrainian follow up is very small, because Russia’s flank defenses beyond the trip line, are very strong.
But the real issue is Prigozhin who, in the last few days, savagely attacked the Russian army leadership and called Putin, who in Russia is known as Grandfather, as an “a**hole.”
Prigozhin lives off of Putin’s support and Putin is regarded as his “best friend.” So what is going on?
Prigozhin has had his aides put out that he wasn’t taking about Putin but about Col. General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s armed forces. There is little likelihood the nomenklatura in Moscow will believe this excuse.
To begin with, Prigozhin was not at the front and his line of information seems to be coming from Ukrainian statements. When he heard about Russian army people running away, as Ukraine claimed and provided a video of a half dozen soldiers running, he even exaggerated it beyond Ukraine’s own declarations, saying that 500 Russian soldiers were killed. Since there was, at most, only a couple of Russian army companies along the contact line for the alleged battle, this is statistically impossible.
Along with Prigozhin’s claims about ammunition, his attacks on the Army’s leadership, and now his blast aimed at Putin, the evidence indicates that while Wagner is being used for Bakhmut urban fighting, Prigozhin is not receiving intelligence briefs outside of his immediate mandate. That means, among other things, that he is not trusted and not regarded as a “real” military commander. And truthfully, Prigozhin has no military training or background. He relies on field commanders, lately some drawn from the top ranks of the Russian military, to run Wagner operations.
Having said all this, some think that this time Prigozhin may have crossed a red line with Putin. In simplest terms, Prigozhin is demanding recognition and prestige, and he is getting neither.
His credibility is now at an all-time low.
Furthermore, he may now have dug a deep enough hole to suggest his days as head of Wagner are numbered.
Unfortunately your report is mostly old propaganda.
It remains enigmatic. It is not possible to discern intentions, whether to keep western supplies and Ukrainian men going into the meat grinder, or some early disinhibiton from frontal-lobe dementia in Prigozhin,or unconsidered possibilities. It seems like circuis, but could be petty politics. Are they trying to flush out some traitor in the military ranks, traitors? How would that work?