Questions from a Military Friend

Why Would Putin Negotiate?

A good and dear friend, a very senior retired military leader, read my article When Should Ukraine Negotiate with Russia? He asked me “Why do you believe Putin has the incentive to negotiate?”

It is a fair question and I replied to him as follows.

I think Putin has a number of reasons he would be open to negotiations now.  Here they are (in no particular order).  I think you raised a good question and I hope my responses below are helpful.

Regarding Putin:

1. Putin, in my opinion, does not want a bigger war, or wants to risk NATO doing something that would lead to a bigger war.  The Russians let the British know earlier this week when they proposed British boots on the ground in Ukraine that Russia would retaliate.  The British Defense Minister's move was a trial balloon on behalf of the Biden administration.  Incidentally the British and NATO reaction was extremely negative. I think that tells us a lot about what Putin is thinking and even more about how desperate the UK and US are.

2.  Putin does not want to be seen as trying to expand Russia beyond the rather legalistic claims Russia is making about a Russian population in Ukraine which needs to be protected --this is important because Russia has international ambitions and does not want to be seen as an expansionist neo-colonial power. This is one of the reasons why Russia’s territorial ambitions are, as Putin says, limited.

3, Putin wants to stay in control of the SMO (Special Military Operation) and not see it taken over either by reckless generals or politicians (think Prigozhin or think Medvedev), where it will inevitably lead to the use of WMD weapons

4. Putin understands that the war is very costly and not easy... a bigger war would exceed Russia's abilities industrially, financially, and domestically in terms of political support and even a much longer war, not necessarily expanded, would still have the same problem for Russia. Russia is on a war footing right now industrially. It can’t sustain that indefinitely.

5. Putin’s main ally, China, wants the war over and done with... they think a longer war will encourage the US to be more ruthless and even put heavy sanctions China. Certainly the Chinese have told Putin about their anxiety over a prolonger war in Ukraine, and they are pushing their own peace agenda.

6. Russia is anxious to restore positive relations with Germany, for economic and strategic reasons.  Putin understands that the reunification of Germany was a big risk for Russia, as Putin served in the KGB in the GDR (east Germany) and speaks German fluently.  Putin thinks a settlement will open the door to diplomatic, political and economic restoration with the Germans --and this will instantly compromise NATO, which is a Russian objective (just as the US is trying to wreck Russia and get regime change there)

7. Putin sees the Ukraine war mainly as an Anglo-Saxon war that has dragged along the other Europeans.  Settling the war on his terms would be a massive triumph for Putin who is nearing the end of his career.  

8. Putin wants very much to keep the confidence of the Russian army.  This is critical to the war effort.  The Russian army is improving significantly and is reenergized, but it also could be dangerous.  Ending the Ukraine war will slow down military ambitions.

9. Settling the war would significantly improve Russia's finances mainly from exports and the import of Western technology and manufacturing. Russia needs access to western technology, especially with the emergence of nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other exotic capabilities.

10. Russia, watching China, can't be too sure that China is stable or that the US might be drawn into a conflict with a China that is floundering economically and socially.  Putin needs to hedge his bets, and settling the Ukraine war would help him do that.

In short, I think there are major advantages for Putin to negotiate a deal now. However, he does not control the situation. It is clear that Zelensky and Biden have to want to make a deal. Zelensky is in a trap of his own making. Whether he can crawl out and find his voice, remains to be seen.

Best regards

Steve