It is clear, the fanatics in Kiev don't want peace.
If I were Zelenksy I couldn't afford peace. The moment peace sets in, people will find out how many people in Ukraine have died, often for useless undertakings like Kurks. I argue, Zelebksy can't afford to show his cards. Hence, he keeps the war going. I think it would be best to get rid of Zelenksy and give someone else the chance for peace. You won't have it with Zelenksy.
The Russians don't want peace either, at least not yet. Their security concerns will not be address through negotiation, they will be secured by force.
The most optimistic interpretation one could put on this is that it is a trap for Zelensky. Russia agrees to a ceasefire, with their previously announced conditions (i.e. Ukraine withdraws entirely from Kursk and the 4 now-Russian oblasts + uses the 30 days to hold elections). Zelensky rejects the ceasefire offer. US shrugs, says we tried, walks away completely from the Ukraine.
But there is little ground for optimism. President Trump wants to end the war, but lots of CongressScum want to keep the fighting going.
Russia probably won't agree to a ceasefire for nothing. After all, the Russians also had a ceasefire before Feb 22, 2022. But now, the US has set itself a trap. It can't walk away, when Ukraine agreed for a ceasefire for nothing at their prompting.
Withdrawing US support from the Ukrainians will help get a deal done. Europe can’t go it alone. It’s nothing but proxy war for the United States anyways. America’s withdrawal ends the war. Yes?
Interesting that Trump has made the Proxy War TRUMP'S War by taking a step on his own to arm Ukraine. I am surprised he would do that for a small movement in the Ukrainian position to be open to a 30 day cease fire WITH conditions.
Perhaps it is very difficult for a Bully to stop being a Bully especially if they hang out with a bunch of subservient hench-Bullies who encourage that modality.
A lot depends on whether the administration chooses to resume delivery of weapons whose use would violation the proposed ceasefire agreement (ATACMS, Storm Shadow, etc.). We have every reason to act as though this plan will be realized in the near future. If peace is just around the corner, then we obviously can't jeopardize it by enabling deep strikes into Russia. Our allies can hardly complain about us refusing to give up on THEIR proposal.
Stephen, van you shed a light on Russia's army and their capabilities in this war. In Europe we often hear the Russian army is useless and soldier have to fight with shovels.
However the Russian army made NATO equipment look somewhat useless, especially the German ones when I think about the Marder or Howitzer2000. Russia has been able to destroy 3 armies some analysts say. What does that mean for NATO's playbook on how to conduct wars? I have seen many Ukrainian soldier saying on camera NATO doesn't know what real war looks like. What are your thoughts?
Someone from the US State Department? Anyway, it seems to resonate with the resumption of arms sales, intelligence cooperation and also putting pressure on India to stop India buying cheap Russian oil and gas. My feeling is Trump is seriously bluffing.
I mean, how is the acquisition of Greenland or the relocation of Gaza's denizens going? Not that I am against those latter two initiatives. But movement?
The desire for understanding of the Ukrainians (and of course the Europeans) is so great that they sent more than 300 "doves of peace" to Russia... No, the birds are not to blame: the olive branch was not the right size, that's why there were destruction of buildings, fires and some people were hit...
I'm being sarcastic, of course ... but mostly I'm skeptical. I think peace is unfortunately far away...
The danger here is that if Putin and Russia refuse to cooperate in any settlement that doesn't address Russia's security concerns that Trump will to bully them by either increasing sanctions of by more actively supporting Ukraine.
My reasoning may seem strange, but these "dancing with a tambourine" in Saudi Arabia (and, in general, around the conflict) make sense.And - for Ukraine, and - for the USA and Europe: Russia will not go beyond the 4 reconquered territories, the Zaporozhye, Kherson, Lugansk, Donetsk regions! It remains to stretch out the time so that Russia completely captures these territories with losses and stops... Let me remind you that one of Russia's main conditions at the talks was the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from these areas. Naturally, Ukraine will not withdraw in an orderly manner, accepting this condition, but it is quite possible to move away from these borders with fighting, while depriving the Russians of the opportunity to dictate anything on this particular issue. The situation is unhealthy for Russia: the demilitarization of Ukraine, as Moscow's main message from the very beginning, is becoming unattainable.Russia simply will not be able to physically (with human resources) digest (occupy) the remaining territory of Ukraine with a very hostile population.If Russia does not attempt to destabilize the situation in Ukraine in the near future and turn the war regime into an internecine Ukrainian one, then there will be even more questions about future victory...
There are solutions to this. Stalin deported entire ethnicies from Crimea or the Caucasus to Central Asia. You could also create new waves of refugees for Europe. Not saying this is what will be done but I am sure the Russians are well aware of these issues.
Stalin, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, ENDED the war in Berlin by destroying the strategic control of the German forces, thereby putting an end to their resistance on ALL fronts in Europe! Your association of Stalin with his deportations of the unreliable within HIS state is inappropriate in the current situation.Here and today, nothing can have anything to do with the USSR.
I am well aware of that. I meant to say that Russia has much more drastic options available and they are well aware of the difficulties that they are facing in Ukraine.
Unlike the Americans, the Russians conduct war not only though a strictly military angle.
"Drastic measures" should have been taken by Russia throughout the campaign so that none of the enemies would be "surprised and scared" by this "radicalism" now! The nature of this war is radically different from the Great Patriotic War, but the conditions for its end (unconditional surrender) remain the same as 80 years ago - the seizure of control over the resistance.Otherwise, it may take a long time (maximum - 2 years) and not the best way for Russia.For reference: The rating of Zelensky's support by Ukrainians rose to 67% after the "clash" with Trump-Vance!? In fact, Ukrainians can be kept on pills by the injured party for a long time (much more than 2 years) and it makes sense to resist; the Russians need a quick turnaround and "draining the swamp."
I partially agree Igor. However, nobody knows what is best. I don't think the Russians know that either to be honest and quite frankly there are no good options here. I argued very similar to you in the beginning, mostly because Russia's approach costs a lot of lives. However, defeating Ukraine swiftly doesn't change that much immediately, if the structures that lead to this can't be terminated. Making Ukraine to a shit hole like Iraq likely won't solve the problem. Hence, Putin takes it easy on the Ukrainian population. He still sees them as brothers. Perhaps in the hope that eventually will wake up and see what has been done to them. I argue that this is the reason Russia keeps its strategy alive until the Ukrainian army falls apart. What comes after that will be the most interesting and most important part. Perhaps Ukrainians need to see what has happened to them themselves just like the Germans did. Only that can initiate a lasting change. Otherwise you risk making an entire nation your enemy for centuries. But even that is admittedly just a guess.
I believe that first of all we must take care of our people, Russians, Russia.Ukrainians' sense of resistance can only increase over time, or at least remain the same.For Russians, everything is different: "denazification and demilitarization" eventually turn into a shapeless blur due to the lack of a clearly defined goal that answers only three questions. : What? Where ? When? Ordinary people don't want to "play with shades" of black and white. Any action or plan should make sense at the moment, and not be postponed for LATER, designed for "grateful descendants."
As far as I've understood, Ukraine only agrees to a ceasefire, if Russia also agrees. One might say that is obvious, but the Russians might agree, if Ukraine have it's presidential election, which is a implicit conditions for having talks with Kiev.
So the good result, that the American delegation speaks off, might be zelensky kicked out.
By the way, what does restarting the weapon sale implie? Before, Ukraine did buy weapon from US military storage, that's being first in line, and the Ukrainians bought for American money. Is it the same way, now?
I don't know how drone sales will impact the acquisition of other weapons. The one advantage of drone attacks is to overwhelm and saturate air defenses, which you can't do with really expensive weapons (unless you are massively rich and well stocked with weapons). If we look at the alleged numbers put out by the Russians, the bulk of the Ukrainian drones were destroyed. It is also noteworthy that while the drones in long range attacks can cause serious damage, they are not game changers. FPV drones on the battlefield are much more effective than counter-infrastructure counter-city drone attacks.
Keep in mind that, from 2014-2022, the OSCE acted as the Kiev regime's unofficial intelligence service in Donbass.
Russia would be foolish to trust that organization.
It is clear, the fanatics in Kiev don't want peace.
If I were Zelenksy I couldn't afford peace. The moment peace sets in, people will find out how many people in Ukraine have died, often for useless undertakings like Kurks. I argue, Zelebksy can't afford to show his cards. Hence, he keeps the war going. I think it would be best to get rid of Zelenksy and give someone else the chance for peace. You won't have it with Zelenksy.
Ukraine and its western sponsors see "peace" as an opportunity to regroup. See, e.g. Minsk, Minsk-2, Istanbul.
That the europeans are cheering the idea of a truce tells us all we need to know.
The Russians don't want peace either, at least not yet. Their security concerns will not be address through negotiation, they will be secured by force.
The most optimistic interpretation one could put on this is that it is a trap for Zelensky. Russia agrees to a ceasefire, with their previously announced conditions (i.e. Ukraine withdraws entirely from Kursk and the 4 now-Russian oblasts + uses the 30 days to hold elections). Zelensky rejects the ceasefire offer. US shrugs, says we tried, walks away completely from the Ukraine.
But there is little ground for optimism. President Trump wants to end the war, but lots of CongressScum want to keep the fighting going.
Russia probably won't agree to a ceasefire for nothing. After all, the Russians also had a ceasefire before Feb 22, 2022. But now, the US has set itself a trap. It can't walk away, when Ukraine agreed for a ceasefire for nothing at their prompting.
Withdrawing US support from the Ukrainians will help get a deal done. Europe can’t go it alone. It’s nothing but proxy war for the United States anyways. America’s withdrawal ends the war. Yes?
FYI Washington announced it is resuming arms sales to Ukraine, not even waiting for a Russian response.
Interesting that Trump has made the Proxy War TRUMP'S War by taking a step on his own to arm Ukraine. I am surprised he would do that for a small movement in the Ukrainian position to be open to a 30 day cease fire WITH conditions.
I'm not surprised in the least. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Perhaps it is very difficult for a Bully to stop being a Bully especially if they hang out with a bunch of subservient hench-Bullies who encourage that modality.
Is my simplistic little formula correct? No US support game over.
A lot depends on whether the administration chooses to resume delivery of weapons whose use would violation the proposed ceasefire agreement (ATACMS, Storm Shadow, etc.). We have every reason to act as though this plan will be realized in the near future. If peace is just around the corner, then we obviously can't jeopardize it by enabling deep strikes into Russia. Our allies can hardly complain about us refusing to give up on THEIR proposal.
Stephen, van you shed a light on Russia's army and their capabilities in this war. In Europe we often hear the Russian army is useless and soldier have to fight with shovels.
However the Russian army made NATO equipment look somewhat useless, especially the German ones when I think about the Marder or Howitzer2000. Russia has been able to destroy 3 armies some analysts say. What does that mean for NATO's playbook on how to conduct wars? I have seen many Ukrainian soldier saying on camera NATO doesn't know what real war looks like. What are your thoughts?
OSCE = band of spies
the Russians seem to think the OSCE can be turned around. I am not sure they really believe it will happen.
It's interesting that someone has been aggressively buying "Trump will end Ukraine War by Apr 20" on Polymarket since like 2pm Eastern 11.03. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days/trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days?utm_medium=embed&utm_campaign=market&utm_source=www.zerohedge.com/
Someone from the US State Department? Anyway, it seems to resonate with the resumption of arms sales, intelligence cooperation and also putting pressure on India to stop India buying cheap Russian oil and gas. My feeling is Trump is seriously bluffing.
I mean, how is the acquisition of Greenland or the relocation of Gaza's denizens going? Not that I am against those latter two initiatives. But movement?
The desire for understanding of the Ukrainians (and of course the Europeans) is so great that they sent more than 300 "doves of peace" to Russia... No, the birds are not to blame: the olive branch was not the right size, that's why there were destruction of buildings, fires and some people were hit...
I'm being sarcastic, of course ... but mostly I'm skeptical. I think peace is unfortunately far away...
"if Russia wins the war"... When...
The danger here is that if Putin and Russia refuse to cooperate in any settlement that doesn't address Russia's security concerns that Trump will to bully them by either increasing sanctions of by more actively supporting Ukraine.
Jeddah, not Riyadh
The US-Russia meeting was in the capital Riyadh, and I guess there's some symbolic difference
My reasoning may seem strange, but these "dancing with a tambourine" in Saudi Arabia (and, in general, around the conflict) make sense.And - for Ukraine, and - for the USA and Europe: Russia will not go beyond the 4 reconquered territories, the Zaporozhye, Kherson, Lugansk, Donetsk regions! It remains to stretch out the time so that Russia completely captures these territories with losses and stops... Let me remind you that one of Russia's main conditions at the talks was the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from these areas. Naturally, Ukraine will not withdraw in an orderly manner, accepting this condition, but it is quite possible to move away from these borders with fighting, while depriving the Russians of the opportunity to dictate anything on this particular issue. The situation is unhealthy for Russia: the demilitarization of Ukraine, as Moscow's main message from the very beginning, is becoming unattainable.Russia simply will not be able to physically (with human resources) digest (occupy) the remaining territory of Ukraine with a very hostile population.If Russia does not attempt to destabilize the situation in Ukraine in the near future and turn the war regime into an internecine Ukrainian one, then there will be even more questions about future victory...
There are solutions to this. Stalin deported entire ethnicies from Crimea or the Caucasus to Central Asia. You could also create new waves of refugees for Europe. Not saying this is what will be done but I am sure the Russians are well aware of these issues.
Stalin, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, ENDED the war in Berlin by destroying the strategic control of the German forces, thereby putting an end to their resistance on ALL fronts in Europe! Your association of Stalin with his deportations of the unreliable within HIS state is inappropriate in the current situation.Here and today, nothing can have anything to do with the USSR.
I am well aware of that. I meant to say that Russia has much more drastic options available and they are well aware of the difficulties that they are facing in Ukraine.
Unlike the Americans, the Russians conduct war not only though a strictly military angle.
"Drastic measures" should have been taken by Russia throughout the campaign so that none of the enemies would be "surprised and scared" by this "radicalism" now! The nature of this war is radically different from the Great Patriotic War, but the conditions for its end (unconditional surrender) remain the same as 80 years ago - the seizure of control over the resistance.Otherwise, it may take a long time (maximum - 2 years) and not the best way for Russia.For reference: The rating of Zelensky's support by Ukrainians rose to 67% after the "clash" with Trump-Vance!? In fact, Ukrainians can be kept on pills by the injured party for a long time (much more than 2 years) and it makes sense to resist; the Russians need a quick turnaround and "draining the swamp."
I partially agree Igor. However, nobody knows what is best. I don't think the Russians know that either to be honest and quite frankly there are no good options here. I argued very similar to you in the beginning, mostly because Russia's approach costs a lot of lives. However, defeating Ukraine swiftly doesn't change that much immediately, if the structures that lead to this can't be terminated. Making Ukraine to a shit hole like Iraq likely won't solve the problem. Hence, Putin takes it easy on the Ukrainian population. He still sees them as brothers. Perhaps in the hope that eventually will wake up and see what has been done to them. I argue that this is the reason Russia keeps its strategy alive until the Ukrainian army falls apart. What comes after that will be the most interesting and most important part. Perhaps Ukrainians need to see what has happened to them themselves just like the Germans did. Only that can initiate a lasting change. Otherwise you risk making an entire nation your enemy for centuries. But even that is admittedly just a guess.
I believe that first of all we must take care of our people, Russians, Russia.Ukrainians' sense of resistance can only increase over time, or at least remain the same.For Russians, everything is different: "denazification and demilitarization" eventually turn into a shapeless blur due to the lack of a clearly defined goal that answers only three questions. : What? Where ? When? Ordinary people don't want to "play with shades" of black and white. Any action or plan should make sense at the moment, and not be postponed for LATER, designed for "grateful descendants."
As far as I've understood, Ukraine only agrees to a ceasefire, if Russia also agrees. One might say that is obvious, but the Russians might agree, if Ukraine have it's presidential election, which is a implicit conditions for having talks with Kiev.
So the good result, that the American delegation speaks off, might be zelensky kicked out.
By the way, what does restarting the weapon sale implie? Before, Ukraine did buy weapon from US military storage, that's being first in line, and the Ukrainians bought for American money. Is it the same way, now?
the word "sale" is ambiguous, what it means is they will start shipping the ammo and stuff now in Poland and Romania.
I don't know how drone sales will impact the acquisition of other weapons. The one advantage of drone attacks is to overwhelm and saturate air defenses, which you can't do with really expensive weapons (unless you are massively rich and well stocked with weapons). If we look at the alleged numbers put out by the Russians, the bulk of the Ukrainian drones were destroyed. It is also noteworthy that while the drones in long range attacks can cause serious damage, they are not game changers. FPV drones on the battlefield are much more effective than counter-infrastructure counter-city drone attacks.