Russia On the Rocks
Is a Palace Coup on the Way?
Russia has again replaced its top general in Ukraine. Colonel General Sergey Surovikin, "The Butcher of Syria", is being replaced by Russian Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov in heading Russia's Western Group of Forces in Ukraine. Meanwhile a HIMARS strike on a Russian barracks in Makiyivka has killed at least 63 Russian soldiers and wounded hundreds more. The death toll may be far higher because many were trapped under the rubble of the barracks.
The day before he was dismissed, Putin awarded General Surovikin a medal, the Order of St. George, 3rd Degree.
The Russian military command is under assault from Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, which has grown rapidly and recently began recruiting soldiers from prisons in Russia. Prigozhin wants to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoighu and shake up the high command. Surovikin's brief tenure and surprising downfall may indicate that the Kremlin is reeling under the Prigozhin criticism of commander incompetence and hostility to Shoigu, who is a politician and not an experienced military man.
Meanwhile, Putin gave his New Year's address in front of soldiers in uniform, some of whom he gave awards. It turns out that more than a few of them are not really soldiers but stand-ins from Putin's security services. Some commentators are saying Putin is so fearful that he won't meet anyone in public except his praetorian guard.
On New Year's eve Russian television featured a highly inappropriate song and dance program, attended by leading military and civilian leaders. The program was broadcast while Russian soldiers were dying in Ukraine. Blowback from this kind of tone-deaf propaganda is unlikely to sell to the increasingly bewildered Russian public.
Anyone betting on the situation in Russia could foresee a palace coup at any time
Thank you for the thoughtful response. Meanwhile people are killing and dying and a country is in ruins. And having read Sleepwalkers a few months, it is not unprecedented that a small thing becomes a big thing. Let us pray which I am doing more and more.
You write, "Some commentators are saying Putin is so fearful that he won't meet anyone in public except his praetorian guard."
And don't all those guarding Putin have guns? It only takes one. My guess is that there are a collection of powerful Russian elites trying to find the right one, the one that can end this. One guy, one bullet, one time.