My understanding is that whatever was valuable in Ukraine was already stolen/bought by now. Zelya was selling Ukraine off like crazy since 2019. I like Col McGregor, but he's been so many times wrong in the past with "big arrows" of Russian attacks any minute, etc. Curiously, he got no post with Trump, he could be a good ambassador to Germany.
Same, I stopped listening to him long ago. But given that McGregor speaks German, knows culture, people ( already a rare thing for an American), he might be ok as Ambassador to Germany.
If Zelensky is not the legitimate Head of State, Russia says it will not negotiate with him or accept his signature on a legal agreement in the role of Head of State.
Putin has already offered POTUS a deal to exploit minerals in New Russia and the "old" RF. Zelensky's signature, if legal, would cover only the less endowed mid and western Ukraine.
Commercial relationships (and Putin and "normal" well-behaved countries) work better within a known and reliable legal system.
Pre-2022, it was illegal for non-Ukrainians to own Ukrainian farmland (probably mineral rights as well). To get around this and collect as much graft as possible, long-term leases were used by foreigners to "control" land. After the SMO started, Ukraine changed the legal system of ownership, so those like Blackrock could start purchasing title (and paying more kickbacks, most likely... ask the next Chancellor of Germany for details).
All the current owners of the land and mineral rights, and the countries of their domicile (including China, I understand) care about the legalities, whether you do, or not. And those who are in charge of the Russian Govt. have also demonstrated that they care about legalities, including because their Constitution forbids giving up any Russian territory. Unlike the Rules Based Order, where the Rules are changed to suit the Deep State whims, the RF seems to support the rule OF LAW.
Try telling an armed robber that "Thou shalt not steal!" He knows that already. He does not care.
Hold a loaded Colt Python to that robber's head and with the sure knowledge that you will without hesitation pull that trigger and he will be the one tearfulyl quoting Scripture to you, and he won't and it won't matter whether or not you have the right to spatter his brains on the wall or not.
The Russians and Chinese need each other against a perfidious America and especially a mecurial US President. Any deal will be transitory and based on Washington's needs and interests at any time.
China knows that Trump will swtich from Russia to moving against it, now that all their resources have been freed up. Trump will also likely drag the Europeans and the rest of the West with him - even as the European economies continue go up in flames and they act against their own interests. China has done a lot since 2018 to insulate themselves, and can really damage the US (more than when they could in 2018), but they still need a back stop and that is Russia and the BRICS.
Russia does not trust Trump in particular nor the US in general. Despite the talk of reconciliation between Russia and the US, relations can turn on a dime at any time. Russia knows that it needs China and the BRICS to backstop it's position when that happens.
That is why anything said between the Russians and the US will be almost instantly visible to the Chinese. The Chinese are scared that the Russians will do a deal leaving China hung out to dry, but Russia knows that if China is defeated then the US will focus on them. So both have an incentive to stick together. Lets call it collective insurance.
Nice to read a essay that treats puzzle pieces as conjecture without pontificating and pushing a narrative. Would seem likely to me that the three major world powers would be better off without proxy wars. Russian is just now reaching the point where they can compete economically, and with the German economy self-destructed by green policy, they have a ready market in Europe.
Wouldn't be at all surprised if the final agreement looks a lot like Minsk I & II.
Not a criticism but it is amusing to see the picture byline call the UK PM "Keith starmer" instead of "Keir". He was named after Keir Hardie, one of the most famous leaders of Labour.
However, Keith is becoming his nickname as over here the name suggests a run of the mill person probably out of his depth in such a role as PM. We also call his budget minister "Rachel from accounts" as again, this suggests someone out of her depth.
Agree that it seems likely that Sergei Shoigu, who was on an Asian tour already, was dispatched in a hurry to Beijing to reassure the Chinese. It's not a good look however. Shoigu no longer has the status in the Russian government that he once had. Unless there's a clear understanding here between the Chinese and Russians, this could be perceived in a negative way by Beijing.
Putin himself stated that a partnership between Russia and the USA over rare earth metals was possible. That was an extraordinary pivot in itself, and it also has strategic implications for China, which dominates in REM.
Russia's geopolitical strategy has seemed very sure-footed since the war in Ukraine began. On balance I have doubts that the strategy has changed greatly. However if I was Putin I would be going out of my way to reassure the Chinese. Shoigu's visit doesn't seem to carry the weight that one would expect.
The prime geostrategic objective for the US is to normalize relations with Russia -- for all sorts of reasons. The war in the Ukraine is an obstacle to achieving that. The simplest course for the US is to walk away from the Ukraine -- not our problem. Zelensky may just have made that easier.
The US has lots of carrots to offer to Russia to normalize relations -- lifting sanctions, readmission to SWIFT, returning the frozen/stolen funds, revealing the truth on the bombing of NordStream, etc. The part of the puzzle I cannot see is -- What does Russia have to offer the US? Presumably there would have to be at least some effort to show a two-way deal. Maybe Russia could offer to cooperate with the US in demilitarizing the Arctic? Or allow US companies to invest in developing Siberia?
Comment #2 today: Thinking on the disagreements about whether or not an actual "Peace Plan" for Ukraine is afoot among some of the indie "Cognoscenti" -- John Helmer, Professor Mearsheimer, the Colonels Macgregor and Wilkerson, Gilbert Doctorow, Yves at NC, Bernhard at MofA, et.al. -- in the light of this morning's blow-up meeting at the White House with Trump, Vance and Zelensky. The White House thought Z would just roll over, but he balked and even "talked back" resulting in raised voices, severe ruffled feathers, a sudden end to the meeting and no agreement. Zelensky does have Euro support (for a while anyway) and the largely anti-Trump Establishment unable to stomach Trump still clings to the bullshit narrative that Russia started an "unprovoked" war on Ukraine, etc. Zelensky knows this, but he also knows that Europe alone can't keep Ukraine from losing the war (he likely has plans to retreat to a mansion somewhere to write his memoirs and he better do that soon). The Russians are winning and will win the war and don't need a flawed agreement courtesy of Trump. They're playing along to see how far it will go, but I don't think they're counting on Trump making it easier for them. I'm inclined to agree with Helmer, the Cols and Yves, etc. Trump just doesn't have the kind of insight and discipline necessary to either understand or engage in diplomacy at a global level and is more likely to just walk away.
Sharp observations and interesting rustling of the leaves . . . Some kind of wind is blowing (the recent UN votes was a "tell"), but will it soon lead to a meaningful peace agreement with a wobbly Europe still committed to helping and arming Ukraine? Maybe (they would be relieved from carrying a futile burden) . . . But there's still the issue of who in Ukraine is legally entitled to sign a peace agreement and, even if that gets sorted out, the NZees have warned Zelensky not to cooperate and it's hard to see that elections could be held fast enough to accommodate events. Maybe he will agree to quick "elections" or resign and a figure acceptable to the U.S. and Russia will emerge to finalize a pre-worked out deal. But even if it all goes "swimmingly" the Russians want more than just a peace deal that ends with a neutral Ukraine, their unquestioned possession of the four annexed oblasts, appropriate de-militarization and de-nazification. They're looking for a wider re-design of Euro security architecture and a more cooperative mutually beneficial detente with the U.S. and the"West" in general, including substantial arms control measures, etc. Wouldn't it be cool to see that take shape!
I'm not the only person who sometimes gets confused by all the different places sharing the same name in Ukraine...
Reuters:
Denis Pushilin, the top Russian-backed official in Donetsk, triggered a flurry of triumphant headlines in the Russian press last month when he incorrectly claimed that the Shevchenko deposit had been captured, confusing it with the seizure of another settlement of the same name elsewhere.
"The biggest lithium deposit in Ukraine has come under the control of Russian forces," said the government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, for example.
In wartime Britain they removed lots of roadsigns so an invading enemy would get lost.
(They better not mention this to Donald, who's already rather confused about some magic Ukrainian soil behind their very productive prewar agriculture that he calls 'rare earth')
The bad part, and its bad, is that Trump is making Ukraine a nation we have a vital interest in. Given its rare earth minerals it makes it REALLY vital. BOOM! Now we will defend Ukraine and while not in NATO they get security guarantees from the USA.
Thanks for sharing your analysis. I hope the gist of your conclusion is correct and both the SMO and the Ukrainian 10+yr war ceases soon.
I have my doubts about your view of the reason for the utility of the Shoigu trip to China, because I have more confidence in the NSA (and SigInt of multiple nations) to intercept and decrypt secure communications. Sending a human messenger is more secure.
While you deduce the possible content for Shoigu's trip, I focus on what message requires an in-person meeting with Xi Jinping. If Putin could safely convey his message electronically, he would not have to use a Shoigu visit to deliver it with maximum confidence by meeting Xi, face-to-face.
Of course, the need for a maximum chance of confidentiality implies the content would have significant consequences, if it got into the wrong hands. So, what content would qualify for that?
A message of continued unbreakable support for the Russian-Chinese alliance, if made public, would have no significant consequence, given that it is the publicly default position of both allies IMO.
What details of the Russia/US consultations are unknown and most damaging if leaked?
More likely:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/col-douglas-macgregor-why-is-trump-arming-ukraine.html
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/trump-will-end-his-option-of-walking-away-from-project-ukraine-with-his-minerals-deal.html
Note that the europeans and neocons are all on board.
My understanding is that whatever was valuable in Ukraine was already stolen/bought by now. Zelya was selling Ukraine off like crazy since 2019. I like Col McGregor, but he's been so many times wrong in the past with "big arrows" of Russian attacks any minute, etc. Curiously, he got no post with Trump, he could be a good ambassador to Germany.
Doesn't matter, as long as it keeps the weapons and cash flowing.
MacGregor is a serial fantasist, unfortunately. He won't get any post, either.
Actually, MacGregor was nominated as Ambassador to Germany by Trump in the 1st round, he's not approved by Congress.
I cannot imagine that went over well.
Why do you view him as a serial-fantasist?
Continual predictions of imminent Russian victory that never materialize.
Why to quote him at all?
Iraq war mentality.
McGregor did make major mistakes of a nature that to me, rendered his opinions unworthy of my time.
Same, I stopped listening to him long ago. But given that McGregor speaks German, knows culture, people ( already a rare thing for an American), he might be ok as Ambassador to Germany.
If Zelensky is not the legitimate Head of State, Russia says it will not negotiate with him or accept his signature on a legal agreement in the role of Head of State.
Putin has already offered POTUS a deal to exploit minerals in New Russia and the "old" RF. Zelensky's signature, if legal, would cover only the less endowed mid and western Ukraine.
What is the obession with legal formalities? The only thing that matters is whether Zelenskii's orders are carried out.
'Zelenskii's orders are carried out' - for what, the entire 5 minutes ?
Commercial relationships (and Putin and "normal" well-behaved countries) work better within a known and reliable legal system.
Pre-2022, it was illegal for non-Ukrainians to own Ukrainian farmland (probably mineral rights as well). To get around this and collect as much graft as possible, long-term leases were used by foreigners to "control" land. After the SMO started, Ukraine changed the legal system of ownership, so those like Blackrock could start purchasing title (and paying more kickbacks, most likely... ask the next Chancellor of Germany for details).
All the current owners of the land and mineral rights, and the countries of their domicile (including China, I understand) care about the legalities, whether you do, or not. And those who are in charge of the Russian Govt. have also demonstrated that they care about legalities, including because their Constitution forbids giving up any Russian territory. Unlike the Rules Based Order, where the Rules are changed to suit the Deep State whims, the RF seems to support the rule OF LAW.
Law is meaningless. Enforcement is the only thing that matters.
too absolutist a statement, don't you think?
Try telling an armed robber that "Thou shalt not steal!" He knows that already. He does not care.
Hold a loaded Colt Python to that robber's head and with the sure knowledge that you will without hesitation pull that trigger and he will be the one tearfulyl quoting Scripture to you, and he won't and it won't matter whether or not you have the right to spatter his brains on the wall or not.
The Russians and Chinese need each other against a perfidious America and especially a mecurial US President. Any deal will be transitory and based on Washington's needs and interests at any time.
China knows that Trump will swtich from Russia to moving against it, now that all their resources have been freed up. Trump will also likely drag the Europeans and the rest of the West with him - even as the European economies continue go up in flames and they act against their own interests. China has done a lot since 2018 to insulate themselves, and can really damage the US (more than when they could in 2018), but they still need a back stop and that is Russia and the BRICS.
Russia does not trust Trump in particular nor the US in general. Despite the talk of reconciliation between Russia and the US, relations can turn on a dime at any time. Russia knows that it needs China and the BRICS to backstop it's position when that happens.
That is why anything said between the Russians and the US will be almost instantly visible to the Chinese. The Chinese are scared that the Russians will do a deal leaving China hung out to dry, but Russia knows that if China is defeated then the US will focus on them. So both have an incentive to stick together. Lets call it collective insurance.
Nice to read a essay that treats puzzle pieces as conjecture without pontificating and pushing a narrative. Would seem likely to me that the three major world powers would be better off without proxy wars. Russian is just now reaching the point where they can compete economically, and with the German economy self-destructed by green policy, they have a ready market in Europe.
Wouldn't be at all surprised if the final agreement looks a lot like Minsk I & II.
Dick Minnis removingthecataract.substack.com
"Russia-US Peace Deal on Ukraine at an Advanced Stage."
Trump has many ways to screw the pooch.
Not a criticism but it is amusing to see the picture byline call the UK PM "Keith starmer" instead of "Keir". He was named after Keir Hardie, one of the most famous leaders of Labour.
However, Keith is becoming his nickname as over here the name suggests a run of the mill person probably out of his depth in such a role as PM. We also call his budget minister "Rachel from accounts" as again, this suggests someone out of her depth.
Agree that it seems likely that Sergei Shoigu, who was on an Asian tour already, was dispatched in a hurry to Beijing to reassure the Chinese. It's not a good look however. Shoigu no longer has the status in the Russian government that he once had. Unless there's a clear understanding here between the Chinese and Russians, this could be perceived in a negative way by Beijing.
Putin himself stated that a partnership between Russia and the USA over rare earth metals was possible. That was an extraordinary pivot in itself, and it also has strategic implications for China, which dominates in REM.
Russia's geopolitical strategy has seemed very sure-footed since the war in Ukraine began. On balance I have doubts that the strategy has changed greatly. However if I was Putin I would be going out of my way to reassure the Chinese. Shoigu's visit doesn't seem to carry the weight that one would expect.
I agree that laws are meaningless without enforcement.
The prime geostrategic objective for the US is to normalize relations with Russia -- for all sorts of reasons. The war in the Ukraine is an obstacle to achieving that. The simplest course for the US is to walk away from the Ukraine -- not our problem. Zelensky may just have made that easier.
The US has lots of carrots to offer to Russia to normalize relations -- lifting sanctions, readmission to SWIFT, returning the frozen/stolen funds, revealing the truth on the bombing of NordStream, etc. The part of the puzzle I cannot see is -- What does Russia have to offer the US? Presumably there would have to be at least some effort to show a two-way deal. Maybe Russia could offer to cooperate with the US in demilitarizing the Arctic? Or allow US companies to invest in developing Siberia?
Comment #2 today: Thinking on the disagreements about whether or not an actual "Peace Plan" for Ukraine is afoot among some of the indie "Cognoscenti" -- John Helmer, Professor Mearsheimer, the Colonels Macgregor and Wilkerson, Gilbert Doctorow, Yves at NC, Bernhard at MofA, et.al. -- in the light of this morning's blow-up meeting at the White House with Trump, Vance and Zelensky. The White House thought Z would just roll over, but he balked and even "talked back" resulting in raised voices, severe ruffled feathers, a sudden end to the meeting and no agreement. Zelensky does have Euro support (for a while anyway) and the largely anti-Trump Establishment unable to stomach Trump still clings to the bullshit narrative that Russia started an "unprovoked" war on Ukraine, etc. Zelensky knows this, but he also knows that Europe alone can't keep Ukraine from losing the war (he likely has plans to retreat to a mansion somewhere to write his memoirs and he better do that soon). The Russians are winning and will win the war and don't need a flawed agreement courtesy of Trump. They're playing along to see how far it will go, but I don't think they're counting on Trump making it easier for them. I'm inclined to agree with Helmer, the Cols and Yves, etc. Trump just doesn't have the kind of insight and discipline necessary to either understand or engage in diplomacy at a global level and is more likely to just walk away.
Not a peep about this assassination in Western media that I've seen today. What a shock...
Sharp observations and interesting rustling of the leaves . . . Some kind of wind is blowing (the recent UN votes was a "tell"), but will it soon lead to a meaningful peace agreement with a wobbly Europe still committed to helping and arming Ukraine? Maybe (they would be relieved from carrying a futile burden) . . . But there's still the issue of who in Ukraine is legally entitled to sign a peace agreement and, even if that gets sorted out, the NZees have warned Zelensky not to cooperate and it's hard to see that elections could be held fast enough to accommodate events. Maybe he will agree to quick "elections" or resign and a figure acceptable to the U.S. and Russia will emerge to finalize a pre-worked out deal. But even if it all goes "swimmingly" the Russians want more than just a peace deal that ends with a neutral Ukraine, their unquestioned possession of the four annexed oblasts, appropriate de-militarization and de-nazification. They're looking for a wider re-design of Euro security architecture and a more cooperative mutually beneficial detente with the U.S. and the"West" in general, including substantial arms control measures, etc. Wouldn't it be cool to see that take shape!
Great Spot Report on the evolving situation. It’s not a Real Estate deal on one side and a Strategic Diplomatic deal as perceived on the other side.
I'm not the only person who sometimes gets confused by all the different places sharing the same name in Ukraine...
Reuters:
Denis Pushilin, the top Russian-backed official in Donetsk, triggered a flurry of triumphant headlines in the Russian press last month when he incorrectly claimed that the Shevchenko deposit had been captured, confusing it with the seizure of another settlement of the same name elsewhere.
"The biggest lithium deposit in Ukraine has come under the control of Russian forces," said the government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, for example.
In wartime Britain they removed lots of roadsigns so an invading enemy would get lost.
I guess in Ukraine they just add more.
(They better not mention this to Donald, who's already rather confused about some magic Ukrainian soil behind their very productive prewar agriculture that he calls 'rare earth')
The bad part, and its bad, is that Trump is making Ukraine a nation we have a vital interest in. Given its rare earth minerals it makes it REALLY vital. BOOM! Now we will defend Ukraine and while not in NATO they get security guarantees from the USA.
Of course. Trump got played.
Again.
Thanks for sharing your analysis. I hope the gist of your conclusion is correct and both the SMO and the Ukrainian 10+yr war ceases soon.
I have my doubts about your view of the reason for the utility of the Shoigu trip to China, because I have more confidence in the NSA (and SigInt of multiple nations) to intercept and decrypt secure communications. Sending a human messenger is more secure.
While you deduce the possible content for Shoigu's trip, I focus on what message requires an in-person meeting with Xi Jinping. If Putin could safely convey his message electronically, he would not have to use a Shoigu visit to deliver it with maximum confidence by meeting Xi, face-to-face.
Of course, the need for a maximum chance of confidentiality implies the content would have significant consequences, if it got into the wrong hands. So, what content would qualify for that?
A message of continued unbreakable support for the Russian-Chinese alliance, if made public, would have no significant consequence, given that it is the publicly default position of both allies IMO.
What details of the Russia/US consultations are unknown and most damaging if leaked?