Is it true that the USN no longer has missile tenders, and so when the anti-UAV missiles are used up the ships will then have to go in for a port call to replenish?
If so, there is an obvious denial of service attack here, even if every UAV is always shot down.
Interesting point. These two ships (the USS Carney and the USS Mason) are operating without associated task forces. One presumes they would have to return to port for replenishment or get replenishment at sea (or perhaps from one of the USS carrier task forces in the region but not in the Red Sea).
Anthony Cowden, in an article in CIMSEC Sept 29th, says
"...late in the Cold War, the U.S. Navy started to diminish its expeditionary capability, and became more reliant on allied and friendly bases. A key development was subtle but consequential – the vertical launch system (VLS) for the surface fleet’s primary anti-air, anti-submarine, and land-attack weapons. While a very capable system, reloading VLS at sea was problematic and soon abandoned. While an aircraft carrier can be rearmed at sea, surface warships cannot, which constrains the ability of carrier strike groups to sustain forward operations without taking frequent trips back to fixed infrastructure. The Navy is revisiting the issue of reloading VLS at sea, and those efforts should be reinforced."
That sounds to me like two destroyers may not be enough to keep one on station if the Houthis disagree with that deployment.
It is hard to keep track because of the possibility of double counting but I would think the Carney itself has fired around twenty five anti-air missiles at about two million apiece. So fifty million and counting plus other expenses. Probably moving towards a hundred million just for the two ships' operations. And that's for only a couple of weeks operations.
"The Houthis are less tied to Tehran than Hezbollah members, and they are not under the Iranian command and control system and act largely autonomously", said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
“Over the years, Tehran has been able to deepen its relations with the Houthis. However, its influence over the group has always been limited. The Houthis welcome Iranian support, but they do not take orders from Tehran."
The talk of Zaydi Houthis as an Iranian proxy seems from all the evidence I've seen since first hearing the claim, and researching it online from 2014, as questionable as Iranian claims that Israel is simply an American proxy.
Within each pair of allies there are different agendas coupled to considerable convergence of perceived interests.
As for 'Iranian Shahed drones' being the primary Houthi armament, that from my earlier research seems equally questionable.
But these claims, like linked Saudi suggestions that 'Fiver' Zaydis are 'Twelver' Shia, seem not to require anything like evidence or proof, as if they've become true simply through endless repetition by Western politicians and media.
The technically illegal bombardment of Northern Yemen with US and UK weapons over many years, supported by Western intelligence and other assets, like the Israeli bombardment of Gaza with Western weapons backed up by other assets, was never going to win many friends among fanatical Islamists in Palestine or (until recently forgotten) Yemen.
As Guterres said of 7 October, and the Pope said of 24 February 2022, the story and its dynamics go further back.
And if you want to intervene productively in such stories, it sometimes helps to try and understand the deeper historical dynamic.
Our Secretary of Defense yesterday made it clear that Iran is behind these operations in the Red Sea. No doubt they have plenty of intelligence. I don't buy the argument from the Quincy Institute.
"These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security. They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world. We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran. The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners."
The Pentagon has found 'every reason' to believe politically convenient and often ambiguous misrepresentatioms on many previous occasions - what even does 'fully enabled', like 'behind', 'backing', actually mean in demonstrable concrete terms?
I guess America has fully enabled, and continues this week in NYC at the highest level to enable specific war crimes in Gaza to which an attempted maritime blockade of Israel is claimed to be a legitimate response.
I don't support the Houthis or the Muslim Brotherhood aka Hamas.
But I try to be a 'realist' in global politics - and its extensions by other means.
Afghans are tough, they successfully resisted many powerful empires over thousands of years.
The mountain Houthis of North Yemen are equally tough, perhaps tougher, resisting external control for thousands of years before and after the five imams they accept.
Usually it means that they have hard intelligence ie every reason to believe
It is unlikely that intelligence will be made public, because it would also have to show that DOD and the Biden administration had previously buried information about Iran's subsversive operations in the region (Biden & Co. were trying to bribe the Iranians to be cooperative, a foolish effort that totally failed). To be clear, the challenge in the region is geopolitical and Iran's has regional goals that include pushing the US out of the area and dominating the Gulf and the Middle Eastern heartland. Israel is seen as a US proxy and therefore a target that can be attacked without much fear of US retaliation, but at the same time humiliating the US and painting it as unreliable and feckless. It is, frankly. completely irrelevant that the Houthis are tough. That is not what is going on in real terms.
The Iranians invented chess, and yes they're playing games, including some version of the Great Game you describe.
But the Houthis are not just some little pawn. Yemen, across the narrow Bab al Mandab from the Horn, is the initial home of Arabic language and culture, and has been interacting with Jewish culture from Palestine through Arabia to the African coast since before Solomon and the Queen of Sheba or Saba.
They're a small but significant and partly autonomous player in the regional chess game.
If by "our" you mean the US, if Austin said that water was wet I'd fell compelled to check for myself. The modern role for the Sec Def is to tell whatever lies the administration needs that day, and then tell the opposite lies the next week.
That just is nonsense and you know it. I worked for the SECDEF (as we call them) and it was not his practice to go around lying. He would have lasted five minutes in the job.
"My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources — solid sources,. These are not assertions. What we're giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence. . . Saddam Hussein has chemical weapons." - Colin Powell
Since the drones are now made in Russia, any chance this is a tit for tat retaliation for the US supplying arms to Ukraine? I was thinking maybe retaliation for the Nordstream attack but I think Russia has something far more sinister planned for that payback.
Since the West is finally sending a task force to strike the Houthis, I assume the Saudi’s are sitting this one out. I suspect that the Saudi’s are less then confident about the Western supplied air defenses against Houthi drones and don’t want to see their oil sites struck again. Seems like the optimal counter to Houthi drones/missiles would be MLRS/HIMARS with aerial precision strikes. I wonder if the Saudis will get sucked into this fight?
Aerial strikes, on what? Their launch sites? They can launch the things from any flat stretch of road or just fairly well packed flat sand. That's one of the nice things about these cheap drones, their flexibility. Another is that they can be built in any empty building with enough floor space from commodity parts, it doesn't take a Boeing factory to put them together.
They appear to have a high/medium/low mix of technology for their drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Decent ISR should locate storage and build facilities, particularly for the higher end weapons. And like SB says, attacking the commanders and tech gurus is best of all.
The U.S. is moving its carrier assets out of the Persian Gulf area towards the Red Sea. Much to the relief of Iran. (and hamas/hezbollah)
You are the first person that I have seen say that the explicit purpose of the move is strike the Houthis. I'm pretty sure that the mood in in D.C. right now is to avoid getting in another endless war in the middle east against a Muslim country.
It seems likely that the Carney, which has been doing a great job responding to the Houthi attacks is starting to run low on the relevant ammo and can stand to be relieved of duty by other ships and can then be called back from the front lines.
Time will tell. The size of the fleet of combat ships being deployed leads me to believe that a punitive strike against the Houthis is inevitable. They’re de facto blockading the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Can’t see that the Atlanticist powers won’t do better than intercepting a few drones/missiles. Will the strikes be effective? Again, only time will tell.
I completely disagree. The Houthis are a serious problem, disrupting international shipping and freedom of navigation. There is no excuse for this behavior.
If Canada had killed over 1,000 American citizens in a raid, any bombing of Canada would be politely ignored by nearly everyone.
But what would really happen is that not a single bomb would drop - the 10th Mountain Division would occupy Ottawa in 3 hours, having faced almost no countering force.
The Biden’s care no more about American lives than they do about Israeli or any others.
"There are plenty of Iranian assets that could be targeted as a punishment for Iran's recklessness, yet none have been."
The lives of our lads in Iraq and Syria might get more interesting.
Is it true that the USN no longer has missile tenders, and so when the anti-UAV missiles are used up the ships will then have to go in for a port call to replenish?
If so, there is an obvious denial of service attack here, even if every UAV is always shot down.
Interesting point. These two ships (the USS Carney and the USS Mason) are operating without associated task forces. One presumes they would have to return to port for replenishment or get replenishment at sea (or perhaps from one of the USS carrier task forces in the region but not in the Red Sea).
Further reply: the US no longer has missile tenders. So resupply is either from port or from other ships in the area.
Anthony Cowden, in an article in CIMSEC Sept 29th, says
"...late in the Cold War, the U.S. Navy started to diminish its expeditionary capability, and became more reliant on allied and friendly bases. A key development was subtle but consequential – the vertical launch system (VLS) for the surface fleet’s primary anti-air, anti-submarine, and land-attack weapons. While a very capable system, reloading VLS at sea was problematic and soon abandoned. While an aircraft carrier can be rearmed at sea, surface warships cannot, which constrains the ability of carrier strike groups to sustain forward operations without taking frequent trips back to fixed infrastructure. The Navy is revisiting the issue of reloading VLS at sea, and those efforts should be reinforced."
That sounds to me like two destroyers may not be enough to keep one on station if the Houthis disagree with that deployment.
You are right. Thanks!!!
It is hard to keep track because of the possibility of double counting but I would think the Carney itself has fired around twenty five anti-air missiles at about two million apiece. So fifty million and counting plus other expenses. Probably moving towards a hundred million just for the two ships' operations. And that's for only a couple of weeks operations.
I don't know how many missiles the Carney and Mason fired, but you are right, it is very expensive.
"The Houthis Tried a Swarm Attack and It Didn't Work"
The tactic may not have worked, but the strategy is having some effect as some shippers have announced they will not be heading to the Red Sea.
"The Houthis are less tied to Tehran than Hezbollah members, and they are not under the Iranian command and control system and act largely autonomously", said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
“Over the years, Tehran has been able to deepen its relations with the Houthis. However, its influence over the group has always been limited. The Houthis welcome Iranian support, but they do not take orders from Tehran."
The talk of Zaydi Houthis as an Iranian proxy seems from all the evidence I've seen since first hearing the claim, and researching it online from 2014, as questionable as Iranian claims that Israel is simply an American proxy.
Within each pair of allies there are different agendas coupled to considerable convergence of perceived interests.
As for 'Iranian Shahed drones' being the primary Houthi armament, that from my earlier research seems equally questionable.
But these claims, like linked Saudi suggestions that 'Fiver' Zaydis are 'Twelver' Shia, seem not to require anything like evidence or proof, as if they've become true simply through endless repetition by Western politicians and media.
The technically illegal bombardment of Northern Yemen with US and UK weapons over many years, supported by Western intelligence and other assets, like the Israeli bombardment of Gaza with Western weapons backed up by other assets, was never going to win many friends among fanatical Islamists in Palestine or (until recently forgotten) Yemen.
As Guterres said of 7 October, and the Pope said of 24 February 2022, the story and its dynamics go further back.
And if you want to intervene productively in such stories, it sometimes helps to try and understand the deeper historical dynamic.
Our Secretary of Defense yesterday made it clear that Iran is behind these operations in the Red Sea. No doubt they have plenty of intelligence. I don't buy the argument from the Quincy Institute.
I can't find any official claim of intelligence suggesting Iran is 'behind' (whatever exactly that means) current Houthi operations in the Red Sea.
Only standard repetitions by partisan politicians and aligned media of phrases like 'Iran- backed' and 'Shia' Houthis.
So I cannot but assume that this is is just regurgitation of the standard lazy rhetoric, with not much basis in serious research or analysis.
The chairman of the JCS does not engage in political nonsense. He has sent a strong warning to Iran
The Centcom statement says:
"These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security. They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world. We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran. The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners."
The Pentagon has found 'every reason' to believe politically convenient and often ambiguous misrepresentatioms on many previous occasions - what even does 'fully enabled', like 'behind', 'backing', actually mean in demonstrable concrete terms?
I guess America has fully enabled, and continues this week in NYC at the highest level to enable specific war crimes in Gaza to which an attempted maritime blockade of Israel is claimed to be a legitimate response.
I don't support the Houthis or the Muslim Brotherhood aka Hamas.
But I try to be a 'realist' in global politics - and its extensions by other means.
Afghans are tough, they successfully resisted many powerful empires over thousands of years.
The mountain Houthis of North Yemen are equally tough, perhaps tougher, resisting external control for thousands of years before and after the five imams they accept.
Remember Afghanistan.
Usually it means that they have hard intelligence ie every reason to believe
It is unlikely that intelligence will be made public, because it would also have to show that DOD and the Biden administration had previously buried information about Iran's subsversive operations in the region (Biden & Co. were trying to bribe the Iranians to be cooperative, a foolish effort that totally failed). To be clear, the challenge in the region is geopolitical and Iran's has regional goals that include pushing the US out of the area and dominating the Gulf and the Middle Eastern heartland. Israel is seen as a US proxy and therefore a target that can be attacked without much fear of US retaliation, but at the same time humiliating the US and painting it as unreliable and feckless. It is, frankly. completely irrelevant that the Houthis are tough. That is not what is going on in real terms.
Thanks.
The Iranians invented chess, and yes they're playing games, including some version of the Great Game you describe.
But the Houthis are not just some little pawn. Yemen, across the narrow Bab al Mandab from the Horn, is the initial home of Arabic language and culture, and has been interacting with Jewish culture from Palestine through Arabia to the African coast since before Solomon and the Queen of Sheba or Saba.
They're a small but significant and partly autonomous player in the regional chess game.
If by "our" you mean the US, if Austin said that water was wet I'd fell compelled to check for myself. The modern role for the Sec Def is to tell whatever lies the administration needs that day, and then tell the opposite lies the next week.
That just is nonsense and you know it. I worked for the SECDEF (as we call them) and it was not his practice to go around lying. He would have lasted five minutes in the job.
"My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources — solid sources,. These are not assertions. What we're giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence. . . Saddam Hussein has chemical weapons." - Colin Powell
Disagree entirely. What you are really saying is Screw Israel.
Stephen, Can you really say what we have been doing in this millennium has at all been productive?
Do you have a strategy that can work without bankrupting the citizenry?
Since the drones are now made in Russia, any chance this is a tit for tat retaliation for the US supplying arms to Ukraine? I was thinking maybe retaliation for the Nordstream attack but I think Russia has something far more sinister planned for that payback.
There is no evidence and personally I think it is purely an Iranian operation.
Since the West is finally sending a task force to strike the Houthis, I assume the Saudi’s are sitting this one out. I suspect that the Saudi’s are less then confident about the Western supplied air defenses against Houthi drones and don’t want to see their oil sites struck again. Seems like the optimal counter to Houthi drones/missiles would be MLRS/HIMARS with aerial precision strikes. I wonder if the Saudis will get sucked into this fight?
Unless they are attacked the Saudis won't move.
There are no HIMARS in the area as far as I know.
Aerial strikes, on what? Their launch sites? They can launch the things from any flat stretch of road or just fairly well packed flat sand. That's one of the nice things about these cheap drones, their flexibility. Another is that they can be built in any empty building with enough floor space from commodity parts, it doesn't take a Boeing factory to put them together.
You hit the leadership. Easier to find and better targets.
They appear to have a high/medium/low mix of technology for their drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Decent ISR should locate storage and build facilities, particularly for the higher end weapons. And like SB says, attacking the commanders and tech gurus is best of all.
Paul O
The U.S. is moving its carrier assets out of the Persian Gulf area towards the Red Sea. Much to the relief of Iran. (and hamas/hezbollah)
You are the first person that I have seen say that the explicit purpose of the move is strike the Houthis. I'm pretty sure that the mood in in D.C. right now is to avoid getting in another endless war in the middle east against a Muslim country.
It seems likely that the Carney, which has been doing a great job responding to the Houthi attacks is starting to run low on the relevant ammo and can stand to be relieved of duty by other ships and can then be called back from the front lines.
Time will tell. The size of the fleet of combat ships being deployed leads me to believe that a punitive strike against the Houthis is inevitable. They’re de facto blockading the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Can’t see that the Atlanticist powers won’t do better than intercepting a few drones/missiles. Will the strikes be effective? Again, only time will tell.
14 x $22,000 per drone = $308,000
14 x $2.1 million per missile (assuming none missed) = $29.4 million
Sounds like the Houthis got the better part of that deal even if all of them missed.
any time you use multimillion dollar air defense systems to down threats the expenditures are always asymmetrical. C'est la vie.
I completely disagree. The Houthis are a serious problem, disrupting international shipping and freedom of navigation. There is no excuse for this behavior.
If Canada had killed over 1,000 American citizens in a raid, any bombing of Canada would be politely ignored by nearly everyone.
But what would really happen is that not a single bomb would drop - the 10th Mountain Division would occupy Ottawa in 3 hours, having faced almost no countering force.