JFK's missile gap never existed - it was based on bad intel and propaganda. But the resulting weapons race would over a period of 30 years ruin the Soviet Union, and bring it to an abrupt end.
Unlike JFK's, the new missile gap is all to real - and trying to close it by spending, could send the US down the same ruinous path as the Soviet Union. The US MIC (Military Industrial Complex) has infiltrated the government to a point where profit and fancy, expensive weapons are king.
Both China and Russia have a more solid grip on their version on the MIC - and China has the industrial means to outproduce any adversary - they have monopoly on rare earth and metals, like tungsten and antimony. China export more than 80% of the nitro cellulose used for powder making. The West would be in deep trouble should China stop the export.
Perhaps it's time for the US to finally accept that her empire days are coming to an end?
The Soviet Union crumbled from within. The same could happen for the US...
Who would have guessed burning through materiel for some small genocidal country in a theatre that poses zero national security threat to the US would have come to this? And this demonstrates to the whole world not only could you not defend anybody else against a middle power, you can't even defend your own military bases.
You say that Iran poses zero national security threat to the US. Perhaps you are mistaken?
Iran repeatedly lied that it was not developing long-range missiles -- and recently demonstrated that it was lying with the missiles it fired at Diego Garcia. Iran has boasted about enriching uranium far beyond the level required for nuclear power plants. Iran has a theocratic regime which welcomes Armageddon as a key to releasing the 12th Imam from his well. And Iran stages regular "Death to America" rallies. Perhaps we should take all of that seriously?
Previous Administrations have tried everything to get Iran to back off -- negotiations, sanctions, even flat-out bribery under Obama -- but none of that has changed Iran's direction. Maybe Iran has not been working towards building ICBMs capable of bringing nuclear devastation to the Continental US ... but maybe they have.
Whether they've been building ICBMs or not, they've been at war with the US since they seized our embassy. They were responsible for the Beirut Bombing, Khobar Towers, bombing our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and thousands of deaths and injuries from IEDs in Iraq. This was past time coming.
Boy, you Yanks are so ignorant. You engineered a coup which deposed the legally and democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran because you didn't like his oil policy, then you installed the corrupt and vicious 'Shah', who murdered and brutalised all internal opposition, and then you have the cheek to say that they deserve what's coming!
What's coming is that Iran is in the driving seat now, and the Yankee empire is shown to be a cowardly and murderous gang of second rate Mafia thugs, who couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery.
What with $100's of billions being fed into the gaping maw of the US military-industrial complex, what a good thing for the American people that corruption and waste will never be part of it. But of course, the crucial rare earth elements (REE) needed to build the missiles won't be part of it either. The US is essentially 100% reliant on REE from China, as is the entire world, actually. And China will not export them if the end use is military. Oh. Mr. Bryen forgot to mention that? I'm sure it was an innocent oversight, and not one intended to see those billions go into the pockets of defense contractors that can't deliver.
You are correct. Rare earths are not rare in most cases. What is rare is the will to process and refine them and deal with the pollution. China is/was more than willing to handle processing, to the point that it now has a virtual global monopoly on what's required for advanced military applications. China's current stranglehold on rare earths for military and industrial use was decades in the planning and making. This was no happy accident but deliberate state planning.
For the USA or any western country to replicate/replace China's rare earth processing, it would have to tackle significant regulatory, capital, chemical supply chain and energy hurdles (to name just some of the issues). It took 30 years for China to create its rare earth monopolies (it started massively undercutting western producers in the `90s). So if the USA was really, really serious? One or two decades to cut into that monopoly.
The issue is that it took China and Russia about 30 years to reach the point of dominance which Mr. Bryen describes. 30 years -- 5 terms for the average Senator. What holds us back is the utter worthlessness of Congress, where no-one can think 30 days ahead, let along 30 years.
If Congress were serious, they would be rebooting K-12 education to create the future workforce, firing regulators in large numbers, squashing the lawyers, repealing counter-productive regulations, greatly simplifying the tax code, and providing real incentives (both sticks & carrots) for re-industrialization. As we all know, our unrepresentative self-serving Congress is not serious -- and Congresscritters are not taking those necessary long-term steps.
Bottom line -- the inability to defend against non-nuclear missile/drone threats lowers the threshold at which any conflict would go nuclear, leading inevitably to global nuclear Armageddon. Thank your Congresscritter -- if you ever get a chance to speak to her.
Add to hypersonic the following - multiple reentry, manoeuverability,
submunitions, independently/ dynamically targetable , decoys... and the intercept probability (which is already quite low against traditional ballistic trajectories) drastically nosedives to a miniscule, next to nothing!
Just so happens there have been some really nice SIGNIFICANT data breaches, both foreign and domestic, most recently. Presumably, with the former, these data may involve the gathering of some interesting knowledge, of sorts! Lol....
Best laid plans... All current and near-future missile platforms are grossly overpriced. Hate to suggest it, but nationalizing military hardware may be the only way forward, aside from true diplomacy / sane foreign policy.
A good informative article. However, Stephen fails to point out that what we are seeing here is the result of 40 years of deindustrialization and financialization of the West. Production decreased and was farmed out to emerging nations - like China, while maximizing the profits of shareholders became all important for defence companies. This eroded production facilities and output while relying on the stockpiles that had been built up over the Cold War, which have now run out. Specifically for the US, in meeting shareholder expectations, and due to what we could call political corruption (bribing or pressuring legislators through lobby groups) and an inefficient Pentagon purchasing process, the price of weapons exploded making Western weapons too expensive, too complicated and too high maintenance, while limiting supply as a profit maximization strategy.
What is not mentioned here is the effects of prohibitions by China on rare earths to defence industries in the West. Although this will be overcome in time, it will take at least a decade to overcome this dependency by the West.
Europe can fund it only if it raids the pockets and tax the bank accounts of its own citizens. Which if carried too far, will trigger trouble in the streets.
"Patriot is the backbone of American air defenses against ballistic missiles."
Are you insane? "Patriot' has for a long time been proven to be completely useless. During the Iraq invasion they shot down a total of NO hits. The Saudis fired them off when Yemen attacked them - no result. Now the Zio boys are reduced to firing of 6, 7 or 8 at a time against Iranian strikes - to zero effect. The 'Patriot is a crock of sh**.
Looks like the missile gap is treated purely quantitatively - inventory/stockpiles, economics, standardization/modularity, accelerated production etc. The qualitative gap seems entirely overlooked. Don't need to spell out huge advances in offensive missile technology evidenced in the Ukraine and Iran theatres, a few of which could trigger doctrinal shifts. Not to mention drone technology, and not to forget anti-drone technology.
JFK's missile gap never existed - it was based on bad intel and propaganda. But the resulting weapons race would over a period of 30 years ruin the Soviet Union, and bring it to an abrupt end.
Unlike JFK's, the new missile gap is all to real - and trying to close it by spending, could send the US down the same ruinous path as the Soviet Union. The US MIC (Military Industrial Complex) has infiltrated the government to a point where profit and fancy, expensive weapons are king.
Both China and Russia have a more solid grip on their version on the MIC - and China has the industrial means to outproduce any adversary - they have monopoly on rare earth and metals, like tungsten and antimony. China export more than 80% of the nitro cellulose used for powder making. The West would be in deep trouble should China stop the export.
Perhaps it's time for the US to finally accept that her empire days are coming to an end?
The Soviet Union crumbled from within. The same could happen for the US...
Who would have guessed burning through materiel for some small genocidal country in a theatre that poses zero national security threat to the US would have come to this? And this demonstrates to the whole world not only could you not defend anybody else against a middle power, you can't even defend your own military bases.
China? Forget it!
You say that Iran poses zero national security threat to the US. Perhaps you are mistaken?
Iran repeatedly lied that it was not developing long-range missiles -- and recently demonstrated that it was lying with the missiles it fired at Diego Garcia. Iran has boasted about enriching uranium far beyond the level required for nuclear power plants. Iran has a theocratic regime which welcomes Armageddon as a key to releasing the 12th Imam from his well. And Iran stages regular "Death to America" rallies. Perhaps we should take all of that seriously?
Previous Administrations have tried everything to get Iran to back off -- negotiations, sanctions, even flat-out bribery under Obama -- but none of that has changed Iran's direction. Maybe Iran has not been working towards building ICBMs capable of bringing nuclear devastation to the Continental US ... but maybe they have.
Whether they've been building ICBMs or not, they've been at war with the US since they seized our embassy. They were responsible for the Beirut Bombing, Khobar Towers, bombing our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and thousands of deaths and injuries from IEDs in Iraq. This was past time coming.
Boy, you Yanks are so ignorant. You engineered a coup which deposed the legally and democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran because you didn't like his oil policy, then you installed the corrupt and vicious 'Shah', who murdered and brutalised all internal opposition, and then you have the cheek to say that they deserve what's coming!
What's coming is that Iran is in the driving seat now, and the Yankee empire is shown to be a cowardly and murderous gang of second rate Mafia thugs, who couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery.
What with $100's of billions being fed into the gaping maw of the US military-industrial complex, what a good thing for the American people that corruption and waste will never be part of it. But of course, the crucial rare earth elements (REE) needed to build the missiles won't be part of it either. The US is essentially 100% reliant on REE from China, as is the entire world, actually. And China will not export them if the end use is military. Oh. Mr. Bryen forgot to mention that? I'm sure it was an innocent oversight, and not one intended to see those billions go into the pockets of defense contractors that can't deliver.
Actually there are many areas in the US namely Wyoming and Arkansas and maybe Nevada that have bountiful rare earth minerals.
You are correct. Rare earths are not rare in most cases. What is rare is the will to process and refine them and deal with the pollution. China is/was more than willing to handle processing, to the point that it now has a virtual global monopoly on what's required for advanced military applications. China's current stranglehold on rare earths for military and industrial use was decades in the planning and making. This was no happy accident but deliberate state planning.
For the USA or any western country to replicate/replace China's rare earth processing, it would have to tackle significant regulatory, capital, chemical supply chain and energy hurdles (to name just some of the issues). It took 30 years for China to create its rare earth monopolies (it started massively undercutting western producers in the `90s). So if the USA was really, really serious? One or two decades to cut into that monopoly.
There you go then. A perfect opportunity for you to cash in on the hundreds of billions. Good luck!
The issue is that it took China and Russia about 30 years to reach the point of dominance which Mr. Bryen describes. 30 years -- 5 terms for the average Senator. What holds us back is the utter worthlessness of Congress, where no-one can think 30 days ahead, let along 30 years.
If Congress were serious, they would be rebooting K-12 education to create the future workforce, firing regulators in large numbers, squashing the lawyers, repealing counter-productive regulations, greatly simplifying the tax code, and providing real incentives (both sticks & carrots) for re-industrialization. As we all know, our unrepresentative self-serving Congress is not serious -- and Congresscritters are not taking those necessary long-term steps.
Bottom line -- the inability to defend against non-nuclear missile/drone threats lowers the threshold at which any conflict would go nuclear, leading inevitably to global nuclear Armageddon. Thank your Congresscritter -- if you ever get a chance to speak to her.
And any good ideas one party has are immediately shot down by the other part which is seeking political advantage.
One word: Hypersonic.
Until that challenge is met it's all blowing smoke.
These people got missile technology traveling up to 15 - 20 MACH.
(Just combat theater missiles - not ICBMs.)
True, just blowing smoke!
Add to hypersonic the following - multiple reentry, manoeuverability,
submunitions, independently/ dynamically targetable , decoys... and the intercept probability (which is already quite low against traditional ballistic trajectories) drastically nosedives to a miniscule, next to nothing!
Just so happens there have been some really nice SIGNIFICANT data breaches, both foreign and domestic, most recently. Presumably, with the former, these data may involve the gathering of some interesting knowledge, of sorts! Lol....
Easy solution is to stop supplying them to Ukraine.
Best laid plans... All current and near-future missile platforms are grossly overpriced. Hate to suggest it, but nationalizing military hardware may be the only way forward, aside from true diplomacy / sane foreign policy.
A good informative article. However, Stephen fails to point out that what we are seeing here is the result of 40 years of deindustrialization and financialization of the West. Production decreased and was farmed out to emerging nations - like China, while maximizing the profits of shareholders became all important for defence companies. This eroded production facilities and output while relying on the stockpiles that had been built up over the Cold War, which have now run out. Specifically for the US, in meeting shareholder expectations, and due to what we could call political corruption (bribing or pressuring legislators through lobby groups) and an inefficient Pentagon purchasing process, the price of weapons exploded making Western weapons too expensive, too complicated and too high maintenance, while limiting supply as a profit maximization strategy.
What is not mentioned here is the effects of prohibitions by China on rare earths to defence industries in the West. Although this will be overcome in time, it will take at least a decade to overcome this dependency by the West.
How about we let Europe deal with Ukraine now. And apparently our mICs are way greedy.
Europe can fund it only if it raids the pockets and tax the bank accounts of its own citizens. Which if carried too far, will trigger trouble in the streets.
Let them. They were pushing the Baltics and Ukraine agenda in the first place.
Quite right. The US should pull out of NATO, and let Europe fall into the hole it has stupidly dug for itself.
"Patriot is the backbone of American air defenses against ballistic missiles."
Are you insane? "Patriot' has for a long time been proven to be completely useless. During the Iraq invasion they shot down a total of NO hits. The Saudis fired them off when Yemen attacked them - no result. Now the Zio boys are reduced to firing of 6, 7 or 8 at a time against Iranian strikes - to zero effect. The 'Patriot is a crock of sh**.
Looks like the missile gap is treated purely quantitatively - inventory/stockpiles, economics, standardization/modularity, accelerated production etc. The qualitative gap seems entirely overlooked. Don't need to spell out huge advances in offensive missile technology evidenced in the Ukraine and Iran theatres, a few of which could trigger doctrinal shifts. Not to mention drone technology, and not to forget anti-drone technology.
"If current plans fall short, the US will need to make dramatic changes in the US defense industrial base and supply infrastructure."
...like disconnecting the MIC from the politico-economic 'supply infrastructure' that it in turn funds?
So that Lockheed's clients in Washington don't keep on starting new wars to fund the 'defense' economy that itself funds their campaigns?