When you say “Europe wants to continue the war” you mean the wafer thin topslice of Euro elites perched atop governments that are in free fall everywhere.
It is abundantly obvious that Russia never wanted this war and has been seking an exit since the beginning. This is wishful thinking, as the West is absolutely itching for a fight.
Meanwhile, as long as the American and european elite classes are not themselves personally affected, they have no problem for continuing the war. Once Ukraine starts really running low on warm live bodies we can expect the call to go out to Send In The Poles!
EDIT: also, nobody cares what europeans think or want, although the political class is all in for more war. Remember when the europeans were fantasizing about staying in Afghanistan after the Americans were looking to pull out? The joke was that NATO stood for "Needs Americans To Operate". Like a dog, a european needs a Master.
Keep in mind that Trump is easily distracted by shiny objects. Remember the idiocy surrounding North Korea? Lots of hysteria all around. In the end, nothing changed.
NATO membership vs 200K peacekeepers is a false dilemma. Russia will accept neither and has no need to accept either. Not that NATO has the political or physical resources to generate even a tenth of that number.
Thanks, Stephen, for another good survey and analysis of the current dynamics of the Ukraine War.
But what is the nature and degree of European popular support for continued war? Over half of Poles are against further funding, despite their leaders and media being prominent cheerleaders. Many Germans are for peace, as their economy is the most damaged, but Merz is more hawkish than Scholz.
Why are leaders in France, Germany, Britain, Poland and elsewhere so committed to war, against a rising tide of public opinion? How do they benefit? Or is it just shared personal Russophobia echoed or driven by most Western media?
Another question: US and Russian leverage is pretty clear, Russian goals (though often misrepresented) also...
But... what exactly is Zelensky's remaining leverage as pawn in a bigger geopolitical game?
All I can see is his argument: "I lose, you lose, so back me for as long as it takes". As long as what takes, exactly? The war has long been pretty much lost. "Back the illusion we can all win, for as long as our media keeps repeating our fantasies, and helps put off the inevitable day of reckoning"?
Well-placed friends tell me that many publicly supportive Western leaders have been tearing their hair out over the grotesque level of corruption in Ukraine, centered on godfather Yermak, from the very start of the 3-year mess.
The grindingly slow battlefield dynamic is now very familiar, and the remarkable resilience or stubbornness of supposedly demoralised AFU troops and officers difficult to understand. But more difficult to understand is how the 'acting president' has managed to control the European political and media landscape for so very long, even as he increasingly loses popular support at home and abroad?
Actually, Scholz isn't that bad. Compared to his new coalition partner Merz. Macron & Starmer are also much worse, and Melloni runs such a ruinous deficit she needs the EU money. So she has been bought.
The way a dog cannot imagine life without Master, the european cannot imagine life without American Hegemony and does not want to countenance such a thing.
In fact, the dog does not fear beatings, he licks the hands that hit him. The dog fears abandonment.
I don't think European leaders really want continuation of the war. They're just terrified by the prospect of peace. The biggest problem is money. The leaked Trump peace plan envision 500B over ten years from Europe for Ukraine's reconstruction. 50B a year is roughly the amount of net transfer within the European Union. Would countries like Poland be willing to give up the freebies they've grown used to and start contributing to the EU budget? The answer is a hard no.
A complete conquest of Ukraine by Russia would let Europe off the hook. It's a more attractive option than any potential settlement at this point.
Trump's leverage - money, weapons, other aid, diplomatic support - on Ukraine (but not specifically the disposable 'acting president') and his motivations (a 'win,' for him, whatever happens to Zelensky or even Putin) are pretty clear.
His understanding of detail is less clear.
He goes on about 'rare earth', as if this was some special valuable thing Ukraine has in farmland (though most deposits are in the industrial East) which could/should pay back 'his' $500bn investment in a Ukraine deal.
Rare earthS are 17 obscure metallic elements (REEs) that are *not* in fact very rare, though costly and messy to extract, but important in some technical applications - and at least half of Ukraine's deposits are already in Russian-controlled areas.
Western media simply repeat Trump's misconception (which I guess he mangled from some briefing he didn't really understand) or translate it into, for example, 'rare minerals' (Guardian today: again rare earth elements are not literally 'rare' - but a lot of the raw minerals are sent to China, which also has the largest reserves, from various countries in Latin America and Africa for extraction, and that's the main strategic question).
However confused on the detail, though, Trump at least sees the main bottom line: Ukraine has lost the war and it's time to get real.
Like our European allies, I suspect you've fallen for President Trump's kayfabe. America's objective in Ukraine is to disengage ourselves while simultaneously keep the Europeans fully engaged. Someone has to pick up the tab for reconstruction, after all. That's why our president had us take up the persona of a greedy ogre lusting after Ukraine's minerals (and Greenland too). We have to make it politically too odious for the Europeans to follow us down the exit ramp. Later on, we can always do a heel-to-face turn and start advocating for Ukraine's immediate ascension into the EU. The "good guys" couldn't possibly refuse when even the "villain" has come around.
Yes, but rather than just writing him off for at least two years as a deplorable man-child with constant tantrums, it's important, given his impact on the world, to try and understand his sociopathy.
Clearly it's mostly about his own perception of 'winning' every game he plays.
With Canada and Mexico we in Europe can just laugh at the initial charade, and markets seem to be smiling at blustery sequels so far.
Ukraine, even Gaza, is not *his* war to win - he 'wins' by ending them on his terms.
My fear is that he decides to start *his* military rather than trade war with China, where 'winning' would be a huge defeat for mankind and at best a Pyrrhic victory for America.
I'm not writing him off. For better or worse, Trump is president of the most powerful country int he world, and that means that we have to learn to deal with him.
"If the rule that you followed led you to this, of what use, then, was the rule?" - Anton Chigurh
My understanding is that the Russians want a comprehensive security-for-everybody deal, like the one Putin proposed in the months before the war began. Such an agreement would involve everything: nuclear weapons, the borders of Nato, etc. Ukraine would only be one of the chapters. Biden/Blinken and Nato rejected Putin's offer. Maybe it would make sense to have another look at this proposal and use it as a starting point. After all, what's wrong with a general security-for-all agreement?
The problem with the general security agreement is that the Europeans need to be onboard, and I doubt they would be these days (unless some of their leaders change)
Nothing wrong with 'a general security-for-all agreement,' except any "long-term" is just a 4 year at best, till the new US administration comes and opts to ignore/violate.
Yep, the horses are like 4+ years out of the barn by now. The Russians are now interested in a neutral Western Near-Abroad, In addition to incorporating Novorossiya, the USA has obvious interests in China, Iran, Panama Canal and Greenland.
@Vonu - the core of the Minsk agreements was that Donetsk, Lugansk, etc. belong to Ukraine but Ukraine was to respect the equal rights of the Russian ethnics living in there. Well, since SMO, these territories voted to join Russia, hence the above issue became moot.
That was one of the handful of core issues that have become moot.
Russia still stands by primary demands: the demilitarization of the Ukraine, the deNazification of the Ukraine, the ending of the attacks on the Dombas, in addition to them never attempting NATO membership.
Since the Ukrainian Nazis permeated the Ukrainian army, Russia's killing the army serves both; demilitarization & denazification. Minsk terms were great at the time they're "agreed upon," but as they say "you can't enter the same water twice."
Ukraine won't ever get such favorable terms as it got in the Minsk and Istanbul.
I can’t see how it’s in Trump’s interest to spend the first months of his administration trying to negotiate a peace agreement that everyone is going to be unhappy with, and for which he’s going to be heavily criticised domestically and internationally, and which probably can’t be done anyway.
Better to send Kellogg to Kiev with a take it or leave it offer, and if Zelensky says no thanks, then wait for the fait accompli of a Russian breakthrough.
Then he can say ‘see, you shoulda taken the offer like I said…’.
Ukraine doesn't deserve a deal. Russia needs to make clear what happens to your country if you let yourself be used as a pawn against them or China. Only the destruction of Ukraine's governmental structures can safe it. How else would the fascism there be eliminated and how else would Russia prevent Ukraine from rearing itself and use its hatred against Russia to start another war? Trump is an utter disappointment when it comes to Ukraine. Instead of walking away from it, he is inhereting this problem and thus making it his own. It will be his Vietnam. I honestly thought he was wiser.
stupid men do not survive what he has to ascend to a level of power no one could imagine. Stupid men do not achieve this. True, he's lost the way on GAZA and Ukraine. This could get bad.
It is clear that Trump is speaking with a forked tongue on alternate days depending on which pressure group he is trying to pacify. On the ground now there is evidence that the Kellog factions maximum pressure maximum sanctions strategy to force Putin to agree to a settlement on American/Ukrainian terms is on going. For example US based 'Luckey' company's mass produced drones that are penetrating deep inside Russia to destroy its oil production and refining capacity to economically force the war to an end. These drones have already helped take out 11% of Russian oil production capacity and are being mass produced to expand the strategy. The 360-degree sanctions mentioned by Kellog are the other thing. Russia on the other hand is focusing on small concentrated localised land wars as it faces a huge manpower challenge evidenced by the duping of Indians Nepalis and some other Asians on to the frontlines after baiting them with "back office" support work for the Russian army. The manpower challenge is even more aggravated by the fact that the Russians are trying to preserve it for the mother of all wars or WW3 which they believe will come in 2030-40 or so evidenced by the massive military bases being built up by Nato on its borders with schools hospitals entertainment facilities and all like the one in Romania - which is why the politics in countries like Romania Georgia Armenia and some of the Stans are in permanent revolutionary destabilisation mode. While the Democrats plan to destroy divide and plunder Russia first before moving on to China, the Republicans and the 'realists' in the US want to take down China before moving on to Russia. With countries like Spain offering passports to North Africans in lieu of military service and Germany and France planning the same Russia will need an army of 3 to 4 million if not 5 million to survive WW3 with most of its territory intact. While Nato's capacity to raise manpower is infinite as proven by Ukraine'e ability to throw in more and more fighters into lost causes even 18 year old British school kids included, Russias ability to draw global manpower is limited which is its genuine weakness. I expect the Kellog strategy to prevail and the drone bombings of Russias oil facilities to expand in the next 6 months to one year. While China has created a drone fryer to eliminate the possiblity of this mass drone attacks on critical facilities that Russia faces, Russian technology is at least a year away from acquiring such capabilities. So the year 2025 is crucial for Russia Ukraine and Nato in deciding the fate of war.
IMHO, maximum pressure on Russia is very likely to result in WWIII.
One thing people seem to be missing is that there isn't enough spare capacity in the world to replace Russian oil and natural gas exports. If maximum pressure means completely stopping Russian exports, it would probably hurt Western economies worse than Russia's. Besides making the US very unpopular in places that rely heavily on imports like China and India.
Buddy, where did you get the idea that 11% of Russia's oil production capacity is out of service? This is a fake, and designed for stupid people. You may be offended, but it's true.
11% seems an overly ambitious number. Even Forbes on 29-Jan, eating from the Ukrainian info-hands, headlined: “Ukrainian Drones... damaged 5% Of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity." And if per Bloomberg's "Luckey (drone company) claims it will provide up to 4,000 jobs in the next 10 years," as an old Russian saying goes, " I would divide the above data by 6, and after by 16" to get to the real numbers :-)
Collapse of the communist rule that ended USSR gave some people some very wrong ideas.
Modern RF is not USSR, and neither it is the RF of the 1990's that yearned to join the West. Having learned the full extent of Western russophobia, modern RF will use any means necessary - and I mean ANY - to inflict a strategic military defeat on any entity that tries to inflict the same on RF. So please, no talk of Germany or France sending hordes of Africans our way. The reason hostile entities like Britain are still intact is bc Ru is winning, and also bc Putin won't say the word. But so many people around him are, even now, itching to say it - MAD or no MAD.
Some influencers here in Russia (e.g. https://t.me/russ_orientalist/19462) like to say, only half-jokingly, that our culture is a death cult, where all our present and future lives are but a tribute laid at the feet of our venerated fallen heroes. That all of us, esp the 40+, are secretly yearning to match the sacrifices of the WW2 generation. Perhaps they are wrong. But how keen, exactly, are y'all to find out?
Putin’s only publicly stated red line was western striking Russia with missiles (Ukraine cannot operate them on their own), and that line was crossed by Biden team.
Putin showed off his Oreshnik but let the war he is winning run its course. Arguably because escalation would have wrecked any possible negotiations with Trump.
If Trump turns out to be Biden 2.0, there is strong likelihood that Russian gloves will be dropped..
Another thing to consider is what more economic pressure can be added ?
Russia is already heavily sanctioned and have adapted quite well.
Only sanctioning her partners could seriously affect her. But is it really smart to go in economic war against the rest of world at this point ? China surely and India most likely won't accept. And many wil, follow them once they do.
At this point Trump would be faced with defeat in Ukraine and a global economic crisis with severe consequences at home, with everything blaming him..
If Trump knows this, he is bluffing. But who is he bluffing ?
The Russians will call this bluff and put Trump in a difficult spot if he persists.
Is it destined to fool neocons in Washington, Europe and Kiev ? To stall ?
Russia does not care about Zelensky, Nordstream, SWIFT or sanctions.
Russia is not even interested in discussing anything regarding Ukraine or Ukrainian territory because Ukraine is going to be under Russian control.
Any "negotiations" have near zero to do with Ukraine.
The only agreement Russia might potentially sign is one that includes America withdrawing from & closing all its military & intelligence bases in central Europe.
At this point Russia is going to advance east to Ukraines western border.
A major consideration for the Trump Administration may be to split Russia off from China and Iran.
Russia's primitive export economy, almost entirely raw minerals and agricultural products (plus weapons), has been left with China as its main customer. The Chinese must be driving some very hard bargains so there's huge incentive for Russia to get sanctions lifted. There's huge US incentives to get Russian weapons transfers to China reduced.
The loss of Syria, a Russo-Iranian joint colony, to Russia's traditional rival Turkey is another incentive.
What happens in Ukraine matters less as this war demonstrated the limits of Russia's military machine. If they had so much difficulty with Ukraine, they won't be rolling over Poland, let alone NATO, anytime soon.
I believe that Trump is thinking about incentives that over time would attract Russia and lead to a weakening of the Russia-China linkage (I use the word linkage because by no means is there an alliance). One of the reasons Xi has announced he will personally attend Victory Day in Russia is that he understands exactly what Trump is trying to do.
The only Ukraine deap will be Kiev's unconditional surrender. Russia has no need and no desire to waste time negotiating with western clowns who simply cant be trusted
Plenty authors all over the media blaming Gilligan, The Skipper, Maryann and Valerii Zaluzhzny without any hard proof. And nobody's offered any point by point denial on Hersh's piece. In over a year.
What Trump seems to want is a new golden age for the US.
This can only be had by dismantling the deep state and a voluntary retreat as the world hegemon. (A hegemon can only stay hegemon by bossing others around, military! -> a huge drain on the treasury)
So who has leverage?
Trump who can increase some sanctions (that will also hit its satellites and the US itself)
or
Putin who can keep the SMO going and thus prevent a golden age?
To me, the answer seems a no-brainer: The US exits Ukraine and NATO.
Only this will remove the external barriers to the golden age. Dump the Ukraine on the EU, force the EU to think about either making a deal with Russia or to try and build its own army. The later makes me almost LOL.
Until the Europeans really pay for every cent and more for the corruption and loss of life in Ukraine they will continue this conflict to the last remaining Ukraine man of all ages. This is ethnic cleansing under the cover of trying to take down a Putin Govt and its religious underpinnings. This is a Claus Schab combined globalist enlisted conflict…thus not surprising they needed a Biden steal in 2020 to get deep into the mud….kill more Russians and try to topple the old USSR Bear once again . Of course…the Biden steal…was the prime focus of dragging the USA to fund more and even their troops too, if Biden had won in 2024 the WEF would be all smiles…more dollars/US debt and internal US corruption we have now seen with DOGE. .
This article is a fairly accurate of the issues that will affect any possible negotiations.
My question is; Is Lt Gen Kellogg the right person to be the go between Russia and Ukraine? According to one commentator, Kellogg is 'haunted' by the fall of Afghanistan in 2021. That is the sudden collapse of a Western sponsored army and the political fall out from that in the US. Or he could just be a Russia Hawk by inclination. Now, I have no way of verifying this but it would provide a reason why Kellog, according to leaks, is supporting a plan that is a no-go for Russia in so many areas.
There is a debate within the Trump Administration between the Hawkish Neo-Cons who wish to continue the war, and what I would call the MAGA who wish to cut and run on Ukraine in order to concentrate on China. I see Kellogg clearly in the former camp.
The issue is does this move from being Biden's war to Trump's war? Does Trump eventually own it, does it bog down Trump's agenda? He clearly wants to be rid of it but his actions in the past few days does suggest he is tempted to carry it on despite his election promise to end the war. For instance the comments on Ukrainian rare earths and the threat of a total trade war on Russia to bring it to heel.
When you say “Europe wants to continue the war” you mean the wafer thin topslice of Euro elites perched atop governments that are in free fall everywhere.
It is abundantly obvious that Russia never wanted this war and has been seking an exit since the beginning. This is wishful thinking, as the West is absolutely itching for a fight.
Meanwhile, as long as the American and european elite classes are not themselves personally affected, they have no problem for continuing the war. Once Ukraine starts really running low on warm live bodies we can expect the call to go out to Send In The Poles!
EDIT: also, nobody cares what europeans think or want, although the political class is all in for more war. Remember when the europeans were fantasizing about staying in Afghanistan after the Americans were looking to pull out? The joke was that NATO stood for "Needs Americans To Operate". Like a dog, a european needs a Master.
Now Trump wants to sign a mutual defense pact with Ukraine. Madness!! Stupid! Seems to confirm your post.
Keep in mind that Trump is easily distracted by shiny objects. Remember the idiocy surrounding North Korea? Lots of hysteria all around. In the end, nothing changed.
But Kim behaved while Trump was in office.
They did? Remember when Trump was sending warships and threatening imminent attack?
NATO membership vs 200K peacekeepers is a false dilemma. Russia will accept neither and has no need to accept either. Not that NATO has the political or physical resources to generate even a tenth of that number.
Thanks, Stephen, for another good survey and analysis of the current dynamics of the Ukraine War.
But what is the nature and degree of European popular support for continued war? Over half of Poles are against further funding, despite their leaders and media being prominent cheerleaders. Many Germans are for peace, as their economy is the most damaged, but Merz is more hawkish than Scholz.
Why are leaders in France, Germany, Britain, Poland and elsewhere so committed to war, against a rising tide of public opinion? How do they benefit? Or is it just shared personal Russophobia echoed or driven by most Western media?
Another question: US and Russian leverage is pretty clear, Russian goals (though often misrepresented) also...
But... what exactly is Zelensky's remaining leverage as pawn in a bigger geopolitical game?
All I can see is his argument: "I lose, you lose, so back me for as long as it takes". As long as what takes, exactly? The war has long been pretty much lost. "Back the illusion we can all win, for as long as our media keeps repeating our fantasies, and helps put off the inevitable day of reckoning"?
Well-placed friends tell me that many publicly supportive Western leaders have been tearing their hair out over the grotesque level of corruption in Ukraine, centered on godfather Yermak, from the very start of the 3-year mess.
The grindingly slow battlefield dynamic is now very familiar, and the remarkable resilience or stubbornness of supposedly demoralised AFU troops and officers difficult to understand. But more difficult to understand is how the 'acting president' has managed to control the European political and media landscape for so very long, even as he increasingly loses popular support at home and abroad?
the problem is the leaders, not the people
listen to the EU, to Macron, to Scholz
and others including Poland
Actually, Scholz isn't that bad. Compared to his new coalition partner Merz. Macron & Starmer are also much worse, and Melloni runs such a ruinous deficit she needs the EU money. So she has been bought.
But ignore Putin and what USAID paid $5 billion to start in Kiev?
But if electorates are increasingly against the war - which is bad for their economies - what's in it for the leaders?
The way a dog cannot imagine life without Master, the european cannot imagine life without American Hegemony and does not want to countenance such a thing.
In fact, the dog does not fear beatings, he licks the hands that hit him. The dog fears abandonment.
10% For the BIG GUY.
I don't think European leaders really want continuation of the war. They're just terrified by the prospect of peace. The biggest problem is money. The leaked Trump peace plan envision 500B over ten years from Europe for Ukraine's reconstruction. 50B a year is roughly the amount of net transfer within the European Union. Would countries like Poland be willing to give up the freebies they've grown used to and start contributing to the EU budget? The answer is a hard no.
A complete conquest of Ukraine by Russia would let Europe off the hook. It's a more attractive option than any potential settlement at this point.
Trump's leverage - money, weapons, other aid, diplomatic support - on Ukraine (but not specifically the disposable 'acting president') and his motivations (a 'win,' for him, whatever happens to Zelensky or even Putin) are pretty clear.
His understanding of detail is less clear.
He goes on about 'rare earth', as if this was some special valuable thing Ukraine has in farmland (though most deposits are in the industrial East) which could/should pay back 'his' $500bn investment in a Ukraine deal.
Rare earthS are 17 obscure metallic elements (REEs) that are *not* in fact very rare, though costly and messy to extract, but important in some technical applications - and at least half of Ukraine's deposits are already in Russian-controlled areas.
Western media simply repeat Trump's misconception (which I guess he mangled from some briefing he didn't really understand) or translate it into, for example, 'rare minerals' (Guardian today: again rare earth elements are not literally 'rare' - but a lot of the raw minerals are sent to China, which also has the largest reserves, from various countries in Latin America and Africa for extraction, and that's the main strategic question).
However confused on the detail, though, Trump at least sees the main bottom line: Ukraine has lost the war and it's time to get real.
Like our European allies, I suspect you've fallen for President Trump's kayfabe. America's objective in Ukraine is to disengage ourselves while simultaneously keep the Europeans fully engaged. Someone has to pick up the tab for reconstruction, after all. That's why our president had us take up the persona of a greedy ogre lusting after Ukraine's minerals (and Greenland too). We have to make it politically too odious for the Europeans to follow us down the exit ramp. Later on, we can always do a heel-to-face turn and start advocating for Ukraine's immediate ascension into the EU. The "good guys" couldn't possibly refuse when even the "villain" has come around.
I doubt the last paragraph. Otherwise, yes, Trump is weak,.stupid and easily manipulated.
Yes, but rather than just writing him off for at least two years as a deplorable man-child with constant tantrums, it's important, given his impact on the world, to try and understand his sociopathy.
Clearly it's mostly about his own perception of 'winning' every game he plays.
With Canada and Mexico we in Europe can just laugh at the initial charade, and markets seem to be smiling at blustery sequels so far.
Ukraine, even Gaza, is not *his* war to win - he 'wins' by ending them on his terms.
My fear is that he decides to start *his* military rather than trade war with China, where 'winning' would be a huge defeat for mankind and at best a Pyrrhic victory for America.
I'm not writing him off. For better or worse, Trump is president of the most powerful country int he world, and that means that we have to learn to deal with him.
"If the rule that you followed led you to this, of what use, then, was the rule?" - Anton Chigurh
OK, so 'weak,.stupid and easily manipulated' but dangerous - so we should try and work out how to predict his actions / model the risk...
Toddler Game Theory?
Complete conquest of Ukraine by Russia will be the end result.
Zelensky has no business being at the Munich Security Conference because his term as president of the Ukraine ended last May.
My understanding is that the Russians want a comprehensive security-for-everybody deal, like the one Putin proposed in the months before the war began. Such an agreement would involve everything: nuclear weapons, the borders of Nato, etc. Ukraine would only be one of the chapters. Biden/Blinken and Nato rejected Putin's offer. Maybe it would make sense to have another look at this proposal and use it as a starting point. After all, what's wrong with a general security-for-all agreement?
The problem with the general security agreement is that the Europeans need to be onboard, and I doubt they would be these days (unless some of their leaders change)
Nothing wrong with 'a general security-for-all agreement,' except any "long-term" is just a 4 year at best, till the new US administration comes and opts to ignore/violate.
America has no business being involved in an agreement to end a war that they started.
The Russians want what everyone agreed to in Minsk.
It's too late to "want what everyone agreed to in Minsk."
Yep, the horses are like 4+ years out of the barn by now. The Russians are now interested in a neutral Western Near-Abroad, In addition to incorporating Novorossiya, the USA has obvious interests in China, Iran, Panama Canal and Greenland.
It isn't too late for the Ukraine to begin to honor it.
@Vonu - the core of the Minsk agreements was that Donetsk, Lugansk, etc. belong to Ukraine but Ukraine was to respect the equal rights of the Russian ethnics living in there. Well, since SMO, these territories voted to join Russia, hence the above issue became moot.
That was one of the handful of core issues that have become moot.
Russia still stands by primary demands: the demilitarization of the Ukraine, the deNazification of the Ukraine, the ending of the attacks on the Dombas, in addition to them never attempting NATO membership.
Since the Ukrainian Nazis permeated the Ukrainian army, Russia's killing the army serves both; demilitarization & denazification. Minsk terms were great at the time they're "agreed upon," but as they say "you can't enter the same water twice."
Ukraine won't ever get such favorable terms as it got in the Minsk and Istanbul.
I can’t see how it’s in Trump’s interest to spend the first months of his administration trying to negotiate a peace agreement that everyone is going to be unhappy with, and for which he’s going to be heavily criticised domestically and internationally, and which probably can’t be done anyway.
Better to send Kellogg to Kiev with a take it or leave it offer, and if Zelensky says no thanks, then wait for the fait accompli of a Russian breakthrough.
Then he can say ‘see, you shoulda taken the offer like I said…’.
Ukraine doesn't deserve a deal. Russia needs to make clear what happens to your country if you let yourself be used as a pawn against them or China. Only the destruction of Ukraine's governmental structures can safe it. How else would the fascism there be eliminated and how else would Russia prevent Ukraine from rearing itself and use its hatred against Russia to start another war? Trump is an utter disappointment when it comes to Ukraine. Instead of walking away from it, he is inhereting this problem and thus making it his own. It will be his Vietnam. I honestly thought he was wiser.
Deserve has nothing to do with it.
Anyway, it has obvious for years now that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
stupid men do not survive what he has to ascend to a level of power no one could imagine. Stupid men do not achieve this. True, he's lost the way on GAZA and Ukraine. This could get bad.
Stupid people stumbled into office all the time. Look at Biden.
It is clear that Trump is speaking with a forked tongue on alternate days depending on which pressure group he is trying to pacify. On the ground now there is evidence that the Kellog factions maximum pressure maximum sanctions strategy to force Putin to agree to a settlement on American/Ukrainian terms is on going. For example US based 'Luckey' company's mass produced drones that are penetrating deep inside Russia to destroy its oil production and refining capacity to economically force the war to an end. These drones have already helped take out 11% of Russian oil production capacity and are being mass produced to expand the strategy. The 360-degree sanctions mentioned by Kellog are the other thing. Russia on the other hand is focusing on small concentrated localised land wars as it faces a huge manpower challenge evidenced by the duping of Indians Nepalis and some other Asians on to the frontlines after baiting them with "back office" support work for the Russian army. The manpower challenge is even more aggravated by the fact that the Russians are trying to preserve it for the mother of all wars or WW3 which they believe will come in 2030-40 or so evidenced by the massive military bases being built up by Nato on its borders with schools hospitals entertainment facilities and all like the one in Romania - which is why the politics in countries like Romania Georgia Armenia and some of the Stans are in permanent revolutionary destabilisation mode. While the Democrats plan to destroy divide and plunder Russia first before moving on to China, the Republicans and the 'realists' in the US want to take down China before moving on to Russia. With countries like Spain offering passports to North Africans in lieu of military service and Germany and France planning the same Russia will need an army of 3 to 4 million if not 5 million to survive WW3 with most of its territory intact. While Nato's capacity to raise manpower is infinite as proven by Ukraine'e ability to throw in more and more fighters into lost causes even 18 year old British school kids included, Russias ability to draw global manpower is limited which is its genuine weakness. I expect the Kellog strategy to prevail and the drone bombings of Russias oil facilities to expand in the next 6 months to one year. While China has created a drone fryer to eliminate the possiblity of this mass drone attacks on critical facilities that Russia faces, Russian technology is at least a year away from acquiring such capabilities. So the year 2025 is crucial for Russia Ukraine and Nato in deciding the fate of war.
your observations are important
the maximum pressure tactic could lead to maximum pressure from Russia, so that strategy seems to me likely to backfire
IMHO, maximum pressure on Russia is very likely to result in WWIII.
One thing people seem to be missing is that there isn't enough spare capacity in the world to replace Russian oil and natural gas exports. If maximum pressure means completely stopping Russian exports, it would probably hurt Western economies worse than Russia's. Besides making the US very unpopular in places that rely heavily on imports like China and India.
Buddy, where did you get the idea that 11% of Russia's oil production capacity is out of service? This is a fake, and designed for stupid people. You may be offended, but it's true.
How dare you call me buddy - I do not want endearment terms from febrile 70% IQ good for nothing rednecks pulled out of the bogs of England Scotland and Ireland by the Norman lords to farm and forage in America. Calling names and pretending to be smart and informed behind an fake Id coward - I hope you have elementary school education to read -https://ericzuesse.substack.com/p/why-are-even-pro-russian-news-media/comments?utm_source=substack%2Csubstack&publication_id=2510475&post_id=156327589&utm_medium=email%2Cemail&isFreemail=true&comments=true&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment
Lol )
LOL, No Du for You. Ha. Sammy might understand.
11% seems an overly ambitious number. Even Forbes on 29-Jan, eating from the Ukrainian info-hands, headlined: “Ukrainian Drones... damaged 5% Of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity." And if per Bloomberg's "Luckey (drone company) claims it will provide up to 4,000 jobs in the next 10 years," as an old Russian saying goes, " I would divide the above data by 6, and after by 16" to get to the real numbers :-)
Collapse of the communist rule that ended USSR gave some people some very wrong ideas.
Modern RF is not USSR, and neither it is the RF of the 1990's that yearned to join the West. Having learned the full extent of Western russophobia, modern RF will use any means necessary - and I mean ANY - to inflict a strategic military defeat on any entity that tries to inflict the same on RF. So please, no talk of Germany or France sending hordes of Africans our way. The reason hostile entities like Britain are still intact is bc Ru is winning, and also bc Putin won't say the word. But so many people around him are, even now, itching to say it - MAD or no MAD.
Some influencers here in Russia (e.g. https://t.me/russ_orientalist/19462) like to say, only half-jokingly, that our culture is a death cult, where all our present and future lives are but a tribute laid at the feet of our venerated fallen heroes. That all of us, esp the 40+, are secretly yearning to match the sacrifices of the WW2 generation. Perhaps they are wrong. But how keen, exactly, are y'all to find out?
Putin’s only publicly stated red line was western striking Russia with missiles (Ukraine cannot operate them on their own), and that line was crossed by Biden team.
Putin showed off his Oreshnik but let the war he is winning run its course. Arguably because escalation would have wrecked any possible negotiations with Trump.
If Trump turns out to be Biden 2.0, there is strong likelihood that Russian gloves will be dropped..
Another thing to consider is what more economic pressure can be added ?
Russia is already heavily sanctioned and have adapted quite well.
Only sanctioning her partners could seriously affect her. But is it really smart to go in economic war against the rest of world at this point ? China surely and India most likely won't accept. And many wil, follow them once they do.
At this point Trump would be faced with defeat in Ukraine and a global economic crisis with severe consequences at home, with everything blaming him..
If Trump knows this, he is bluffing. But who is he bluffing ?
The Russians will call this bluff and put Trump in a difficult spot if he persists.
Is it destined to fool neocons in Washington, Europe and Kiev ? To stall ?
NOBODY survives WW3
You live in a fantasy world based on mainstream, establishment media and American/western exceptionalism.
Russia economy & society is humming with vibrancy.
Every talking point you made is literally 180 from reality.
You are in for a lot of big surprises in the next few years based on your "analysis".
Sorry Sir. This is disconnected from reality.
Russia does not care about Zelensky, Nordstream, SWIFT or sanctions.
Russia is not even interested in discussing anything regarding Ukraine or Ukrainian territory because Ukraine is going to be under Russian control.
Any "negotiations" have near zero to do with Ukraine.
The only agreement Russia might potentially sign is one that includes America withdrawing from & closing all its military & intelligence bases in central Europe.
At this point Russia is going to advance east to Ukraines western border.
A major consideration for the Trump Administration may be to split Russia off from China and Iran.
Russia's primitive export economy, almost entirely raw minerals and agricultural products (plus weapons), has been left with China as its main customer. The Chinese must be driving some very hard bargains so there's huge incentive for Russia to get sanctions lifted. There's huge US incentives to get Russian weapons transfers to China reduced.
The loss of Syria, a Russo-Iranian joint colony, to Russia's traditional rival Turkey is another incentive.
What happens in Ukraine matters less as this war demonstrated the limits of Russia's military machine. If they had so much difficulty with Ukraine, they won't be rolling over Poland, let alone NATO, anytime soon.
https://www.theeditors.com/p/prepare-for-the-disintegration-of-syria-and-rise-of-imperial-turkey-david-wurmser-erdogan-russia-us-strategy-middle-east
I believe that Trump is thinking about incentives that over time would attract Russia and lead to a weakening of the Russia-China linkage (I use the word linkage because by no means is there an alliance). One of the reasons Xi has announced he will personally attend Victory Day in Russia is that he understands exactly what Trump is trying to do.
The only Ukraine deap will be Kiev's unconditional surrender. Russia has no need and no desire to waste time negotiating with western clowns who simply cant be trusted
There's not a single working braincell on earth doesnt know who blew up Nordstream. 😂 https://substack.com/@seymourhersh/note/p-156953674?r=8gibc
the point is that you can't say X did it without hard proof. As an author, you need to write in a responsible manner.
Plenty authors all over the media blaming Gilligan, The Skipper, Maryann and Valerii Zaluzhzny without any hard proof. And nobody's offered any point by point denial on Hersh's piece. In over a year.
Musk will no doubt find the papertrail soon lol.
What Trump seems to want is a new golden age for the US.
This can only be had by dismantling the deep state and a voluntary retreat as the world hegemon. (A hegemon can only stay hegemon by bossing others around, military! -> a huge drain on the treasury)
So who has leverage?
Trump who can increase some sanctions (that will also hit its satellites and the US itself)
or
Putin who can keep the SMO going and thus prevent a golden age?
To me, the answer seems a no-brainer: The US exits Ukraine and NATO.
Only this will remove the external barriers to the golden age. Dump the Ukraine on the EU, force the EU to think about either making a deal with Russia or to try and build its own army. The later makes me almost LOL.
Until the Europeans really pay for every cent and more for the corruption and loss of life in Ukraine they will continue this conflict to the last remaining Ukraine man of all ages. This is ethnic cleansing under the cover of trying to take down a Putin Govt and its religious underpinnings. This is a Claus Schab combined globalist enlisted conflict…thus not surprising they needed a Biden steal in 2020 to get deep into the mud….kill more Russians and try to topple the old USSR Bear once again . Of course…the Biden steal…was the prime focus of dragging the USA to fund more and even their troops too, if Biden had won in 2024 the WEF would be all smiles…more dollars/US debt and internal US corruption we have now seen with DOGE. .
This article is a fairly accurate of the issues that will affect any possible negotiations.
My question is; Is Lt Gen Kellogg the right person to be the go between Russia and Ukraine? According to one commentator, Kellogg is 'haunted' by the fall of Afghanistan in 2021. That is the sudden collapse of a Western sponsored army and the political fall out from that in the US. Or he could just be a Russia Hawk by inclination. Now, I have no way of verifying this but it would provide a reason why Kellog, according to leaks, is supporting a plan that is a no-go for Russia in so many areas.
There is a debate within the Trump Administration between the Hawkish Neo-Cons who wish to continue the war, and what I would call the MAGA who wish to cut and run on Ukraine in order to concentrate on China. I see Kellogg clearly in the former camp.
The issue is does this move from being Biden's war to Trump's war? Does Trump eventually own it, does it bog down Trump's agenda? He clearly wants to be rid of it but his actions in the past few days does suggest he is tempted to carry it on despite his election promise to end the war. For instance the comments on Ukrainian rare earths and the threat of a total trade war on Russia to bring it to heel.
Time will tell.