The Shoot Out at the White House

and some guesses about what happens next

Because events at the White House with President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky were so dramatic, I thought it would, perhaps, be useful to take a moment to discuss the big events of today at the White House where Zelensky met Trump. It is unprecedented that a visiting dignitary would behave the way Zelensky did, or for that matter show up in a tight fitting sweatshirt and slacks, something Mr. Trump disliked.

Trump Told Zelensky, Make a Deal or We’re Out

To begin with, there was no private meeting with Trump and Zelensky.

Here is some context:

1. Trump and Putin are very close to a deal on Ukraine. I released an article on that earlier today on Substack.

2. Trump invited Macron and Starmer to Washington to brief them, which he apparently did. The French went away fairly unhappy, but Starmer seemed to be in general agreement. Starmer made a pitch to include Article 5 and NATO in any deal; Trump rejected that appeal. Putin, meanwhile, talked to Xi by telephone and sent Sergei Shoigu (who heads Russia's Security Council, something like the NSC) to Beijing to meet with Xi.

3. Trump invited Zelensky. The cover for Zelensky's appearance in Washington was the "Minerals Deal" which the two leaders were supposed to sign.

4. The Minerals Deal was actually a sort of security guarantee for Ukraine, as Ukraine and the US would become "partners." While Trump is unwilling to send US troops to Ukraine, he saw the Minerals Deal as a security substitute.

5. The Minerals Deal was not signed.

6. The real reason for the Zelensky visit was to brief him on the Putin negotiations and to gain his support.

7. Zelensky was not briefed because he vociferously and harshly objected to any negotiations with Putin. He did this in public, to Trump's face, and in front of the press. As I have said many times before, Zelensky cannot negotiate with Russia.

8. Trump told Zelensky he was gambling with World War 3 and that he was in a poor position. Zelensky tried to answer back, but each time was rebuffed both by Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance.

9. The result is there was no private meeting and Trump told Zelensky he would be welcomed back only when he was ready for peace.

10. Usually there is a press conference at the end of a visit to the White House. That was cancelled and, in essence, Zelensky was dismissed.

11. The next steps are unclear, as Trump's attempt to cut a deal with Russia is now blocked by Zelensky's refusal to cooperate.

Some guesses:

Guess 1. Trump will retaliate by cutting off arms deliveries to Ukraine and cutting off any US money to the Ukrainian government. If that happens, Ukraine's army will disintegrate in the next couple of months, or sooner.

Guess 2. Trump will put together some kind of deal with Russia not including Ukraine. This could be an economic deal, or it could be a deal that lifts sanctions on Russia.

Guess 3. It is unlikely Trump will change course on Russia and Ukraine, unless Zelensky changes his position or is replaced in some way.

Guess 4. Trump may ask the Europeans to stop backing Ukraine under current circumstances. It seems the British may cooperate, but not the French. The Germans right now don't have a government, so they are unpredictable. Trump will talk to the Germans about helping them improve their economy in exchange for geopolitical cooperation. We will see.

Guess 5. Trump will let Ukraine collapse but may seek a deal with Putin on Ukraine once Zelensky is gone.