"The US insists it is not promoting regime change in Iran, but that policy could very well change..."
Who do you think you're kidding? The United States insisted piously that it only wanted a diplomatic solution in 2002-03, when it was obvious that the United States was seeking war on any pretext.
In the United States, two lobbies rule: the Jewish and the Cuban. It is no coincidence that the two most massacred peoples on the planet today are the Palestinians and the Cubans. And there is little to be done against both. There are two open war fronts (another one will be added, China, although we cannot estimate when), that of Ukraine and now Iran. Two fronts of a fragmented world war.
When will they unite in perfectly defined blocks in a world war as it has been historically? How many countries will join the US/NATO/Japan, South Korea, Australia block (on one side) and how many will join the Russia/Iran/China block (on the other side)? That is what historians and analysts like Stephen Bryen must elucidate. I also invite you to reflect on it, it makes for a good opinion and popular article.
January 2020, the Iranian government announced it would no longer abide by any of the operational restraints on its nuclear program under the Iran nuclear deal.
In early 2023, the IAEA reported they had detected traces of uranium at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility that was enriched to "near weapons-grade level that Iran claimed was accidental."
There is but one reason and use for the 60% enriched uranium Iran produced. Weaponry. In the hands of fanatics who glorify martyrdom. What choice was left?
The CIA and the State Department have seen some significant changes under the current administration. What was true in the past will not play out necessarily as you imagine.
So idiotic…I can’t think of a better reason for Iran to decide to build nuclear weapons than being attacked by Israel and the U.S. But this is what we do, right? Oh let’s use Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia…how’d that work out? 🙄
I keep reading Fordow can't even be touched by bunker busters because the facility is too deep. A few accounts on X described the US merely hit one of the entraces.
Perhaps it was an attack to appease the (Israeli) Hardliners without causing too much damage for Iran.
That would allow the Americans to safe face, without having to go all in, appease the neocons and call it a victory.
It will be important to see how Iran reacts. They could now fake a retaliation, hit something unimportant, call it a victory too, without having to kill US soldiers anywhere else in the middle east, which would cause a bigger war that nobody really wants.
If this analysis is true, Trump looks like a big winner and allows Iran and Israel to back down, while Iran buys some time.
One thing is sure though, all nations have heard the message loud and clear. Only a nuclear weapon will safe you. Gaddafi knows this, North Korea knows this and Iran knows it too. You may call this strike a victory... let's see how historians will see it if Iran still acquires a nuclear weapons in a few months/years.
An underground facility is unless if you cannot get in and out of it. I think it’s highly likely that this attack has succeeded in collapsing all access tunnels currently in use.
Iran is saying they will close the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's oil goes through there. If they're successful, the sky is the limit for oil prices.
One thing I haven't heard mentioned is the possibility of Iran getting nuclear weapons from Pakistan since they're both Muslim and share a border.
I wouldn't be surprised if the other 6 countries that the US State Department deliberately started wars in would join up with Iran to rout the US from their territories.
“Now look—I ain't a man of big words or fancy books. But I do know a thing or two about presidential regret. Not real regret, mind you. I sleep just fine. But legacy—now that keeps a fella up at night. Turns out history books aren’t kind to folks who invade countries over invisible weapons.”
An Open Letter from George W. Bush to Donald J. Trump About Ignoring the Truth, Starting a War, and Somehow Making W. Look Smart
“From One War Criminal to Another: I Lied Us Into War. You Bombed Because You’re Stupid.” A fact-free strike on Iran that ignored intelligence, defied diplomacy, and may ignite the next global war.
At some point, Iran's delaying tactic would stop working. China is by now anxious to improve relations with the US. Moreover, it looks like Israel and USA have an understanding with Putin. IIRC Bibi had a longer, very friendly conversation with Vladimir Vladimirovich on Russian Victory Day a month or so ago.
"China is by now anxious to improve relations with the US. Moreover, it looks like Israel and USA have an understanding with Putin."
I am amazed at the abject stupidity of both Russia and China (the paper bear and the paper dragon). They have folded; they will drop to their knees and service Uncle Sam!
They haven't folded. China and Russia's main aim is to reneutralize what's left of Ukraine and then have belt and road initiative extending unobstructed into Central and Western Europe. If Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia become neutral again, so much the better. The whole idea behind BRI is that it circumvents the waterways.
Well, I suppose that has some truth, since neither was a threat to the Deep State.
"China and Russia's main aim is to reneutralize what's left of Ukraine and then have belt and road initiative extending unobstructed into Central and Western Europe."
There is plenty left of Ukraine. Russia could not defeat Ukraine in three and a half years. Ukraine is attacking deep in Russian territory, thanks to Putin's avolition to achieve a decisive win.
" If Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia become neutral again, so much the better."
You are feeding Steven's beliefs with your emotions. Don't overdo it. Let things be as they are. Don't make a sad face every time something happens that you might not like. There will be many such events in the future, and mental exhaustion due to your refusal to accept them is harmful to your health.
No, but Hungary and Slovakia are already neutral*, and Slovakia is even contemplating of getting out of NATO. Czechia is also going neutralish if Babis wins there. Austria - depends on when and if FPÖ is able to form a new government. Current government without FPÖ is shaky.
With Russia not able to defeat Ukraine - the whole W Europe, USA, Canada, Japan and S Korea are behind it - that's the industrial capacity of more than 1 Bill population, so just population-wise it is 8:1. Still, Russia has managed to grind down Ukraine gradually. Anyway, the fight over the last 10 years has been not over the Ukraine proper (that's the South-Eastern flank of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth 16/17th century) but over Novorossiya and Crimea.
*And taking part at the Russian Victory Day parade at the Red Square on May 9. Bibi couldn't come because of the current war, but still had a long, and very friendly conversation with Vladimir Vladimirovich on that day, commemorating the day...
Russia isn’t trying to “defeat Ukraine.” However, they will succeed in their objective to retake the Donbas, hold Crimea and possibly take Odessa. All are ethnically Russian and are intrinsic to Russia, both ancestrally and culturally.
Both Donbass and Odessa are parts of Novorossiya. It was only Lenin that decreed that they would be parts of Ukraine in 1922, because he wanted a majority of Russian speakers in the Ukraine Republic. Historically, Real Ukraine was the South-Eastern part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 16/17th century.
By the way, it was "Realist" writing about "defeat Ukraine", not me, lol.
Bombing Iran's nuclear research facilities is not the point. It's just an interim step in the war against Iran. Regardless of what Trump says about peace, the only satisfactory outcome for him and for Israel is the complete destruction of the government of Iran and the dismemberment of the country. Anything less than that means Iran will continue to be a thorn in their plans for the Middle East.
Having loosed the dogs of war, it's difficult to see how they can be brought back to heel. Worse, the dogs were loosed in an act of treachery, while diplomatic negotiations with Iran were underway. I don't know how Iran will respond, although there are many options and most of them are likely to escalate the conflict in ways that will ripple throughout the globe.
As for the claims that Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been utterly destroyed, that's just wishful thinking. Israel and the US telegraphed their intentions to attack for weeks before taking the step. Iran had plenty of time and warning to secure its most valuable nuclear assets, including their stockpile of highly enriched uranium which has undoubtedly been dispersed throughout the country. Moreover, the logic behind making a dash for a nuclear weapon is now perfectly clear. It's the only thing that will save them from the West's/Israel's plan for regime change.
Anything's possible, however. Perhaps Iran could meekly capitulate, while its government does what it can to stay in business despite having a US/Israeli target on its back. But seriously, how likely is that?
You're absolutely right to zero in on the intentionality behind Fordo's location and design. This facility wasn't just buried in a mountain for show; it was engineered explicitly to withstand the only weapons in the U.S. arsenal capable of threatening it namely, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator.
Iran, with decades of geotechnical expertise from its oil industry, would have had an unusually sophisticated understanding of underground engineering, rock mechanics, and seismic behavior. That's why Fordo was:
Built into dense, homogeneous dolomite a hard, stable rock that resists fracturing and distributes shock energy laterally.
Positioned beneath 80-90 meters of cover, outside even the published design limits of the MOP (which are thought to reliably penetrate ~60 meters of hard rock).
Constructed with minimal vertical access points, and those possibly routed with baffles or Z-curves to defeat linear munition trajectories.
Designed to frustrate target acquisition, with overlapping chambers, redundant shielding, and deep power and data tunnels.
This isn't a site that's hoping for luck. It was engineered to outmatch the GBU-57 by simply outlasting its known capability envelope.
If Iran believed the U.S. would eventually strike and Fordo was built for that eventuality - then its apparent survivability in the first wave isn't surprising, but rather a feature of the design. By appearing intact (even if only partially), Fordo may:
Preserve Iran's deterrent posture, even if active enrichment has ceased;
Force Washington to reveal how many more MOPs it's willing to expend but still come up short; and buy time to deceive, relocate, or reinforce underground operations elsewhere.
In that light, Trump's "Mission Accomplished" line may not just be premature - it may have collided head-on with a trap designed to draw fire and absorb it.
Before seismic and radiological data are analysed, it's unclear whether the two visible sinkholes after the attack reflect core breach or explosive recoil.
Trump was apparently most concerned in the leadup about failure to penetrate the core.
His premature 'mission accomplished' bravado before Pentagon BDA may be vindicated in the next few days, but might have been wishful thinking.
I am amazed by the number of people who have ignored how existentially evil the Deep State is. The Deep State is serious about maintaining its unipolar world. Russia and China will soon be crushed...the Empire wins!
How the “deep state” is going to crush China and Russia? The hallucinating mafiosi responsible for millions of deaths and destruction around the world, have been trying to crush Сuba since 1961 and Venezuela since 1990s.
Obviously, Washington wants to rule the world. Using a magic word “liberal democracy” supported by brutal force on the countries that don’t obey.
Someone needs to rewrite the US foreign policy. Are there any sane people left in Washington who are not in the pocket of Zionists?
I fully expect that Israel will exercise their Samson Option when the dwindling supply of munitions runs out, having been exhausted by the idiocy in the Ukraine.
Ukraine is not an Israeli war. The main Ukraine supporters are in Western Europe and the Baltics and they are also engaged in all kinds of microaggressions against Israel too.
Use it or lose it. There is a steady production stream, and if US needs more it needs a coalition in Congress and amongst the big tech to increase the production. Israel is "small enough" that they can still meet the limits. Unlike Ukraine (or Taiwan).
Russia produces more military equipment than all of the NATO countries combined, including the US. They have all donated the majority of their pre-SMO inventories to Zelensky.
That is why they like having sanctions placed against them, because they make their economy grow. American sanctions have no effect on a country that does not use SWIFT, which Russia is excluded from.
Nope. Remember Europe is where holocaust took place. Many Nations gladly participated. Not just the usual suspects Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine. Belgium, Netherlands and France were quite eager too. Norway also.
The UK didn't intend regime change in Argentina when it won the Falklands War but that's what happened.
Once the hostilities end, Iran's Islamic Republic will still be mired in economic stagnation, corruption and deeply unpopular repressive measures (like the hijab rules that led to death of Mahsa Ahimi and the Woman, Life, Freedom mass protests). Israel has started bombing Basij militia installations, which is the primary force for internal repression.
The Islamic Republic has been promoting regime change ever since they became more repressive and corrupt than the Shah's regime.
The Ayatollah will need to do something in order to save face and maintain control. Not retaliating will show weakness and lack of resolve. Having control of the internet and all communications in Iran, the Ayatollah can turn a rather weak military response into an embellished massive counterpunch victory for the masses to believe. His structural military effectiveness is diminished and he needs to be concerned about Israeli/U.S. strikes on his economic lifeblood- oil refineries and systems. He will either "tread-lightly" or throw caution to the wind, but he won't sue for peace.
By pretending to negotiate, the US helped Iran lower its guard so that Israel could execute its surprise attack. This deception is of the same ilk as that ‘Minsk process’ that Angela Merkel and François Hollande admitted was just a comedy to stall Russia and buy time, while NATO strengthened the Ukrainian army. ‘Allowing Netanyahu to attack Iran when US envoys were negotiating with Tehran puts the US presidency on the same level of credibility as Al Capone,’ says MidleEast Eye editor David Hearst. The US is willing to burn the world to save its throne. It is a declining power that needs the world to finance its hyper-consumption on a daily basis. Gaza was the announcement, Ukraine the feeler, Iran the escalation, but Russia and China are the final straw and the ultimate goal.
Iran Islamic leadership very credibly promises 'Death to Americans'! And promises to never surrender or negotiate. Believing what they say, they themselves brought about the current level of destruction to Iran nuclear facilities. Regime change, if any, will come from within.
"Iran Islamic leadership very credibly promises 'Death to Americans'!"
They have good reason. You are obviously ignorant of the 1953 coup by the CIA in Iran. The United States controlled Iran for twenty-six years after it installed the Shah.
Well, the timidity of both Russia, China, and Iran, for that matter, has given the United States the iron fist that it wields so well. It is a matter of time before Russia and then China fold and are controlled by the Deep State of the U.S. If they don't care, I don't care.
Personally I am glad that there are some adults in the room vis a vis Russia and China. Two geopolitical psychopaths (Trump and Netanyahu) are more than enough. Btw Bryen appears to be part of the 1979 “bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” clique. Very disappointed.
Seriously. Russia has hardly been subjugated. Clearly you haven’t really been paying attention. The U.S. is the big bad blowhard bully on the school yard. Despite what you seem to think, we can’t bomb other countries “back to the stone-age”. Just ask Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Russia has demonstrated that when it comes to a REAL battle, with forces on the ground, they are far superior to the U.S. I’m wracking my brain, but I can’t name one single foreign war we’ve won in more than a century.
"In what way have Russia and China capitulated and to whom?"
They have capitulated to the Deep State (United States) by insisting on diplomatic solutions with an entity that has no intention of an honest settlement. They have done nothing to obstruct the hegemonic march of the Deep State throughout the planet...the Middle East, the Western Pacific, and Europe.
"The Chinese were unsuccessful in detecting the US attack": maybe because the US was lying about their use of planes? Why wouldn't Iran try to gt some fighters in the iar and get a token kill? Those planes were seen easily enough by the naked eye when leaving their base in the US. I presume Iran could easily get a kill in (while probably getting killed a lot more, but hey: PR ✌️). Soy assumption: no bunker busters, no planes, just tomahawks.
"The US insists it is not promoting regime change in Iran, but that policy could very well change..."
Who do you think you're kidding? The United States insisted piously that it only wanted a diplomatic solution in 2002-03, when it was obvious that the United States was seeking war on any pretext.
Indeed, the US has lost its credibility, including Trump.
ridiculous
Feral is wrong and so are you
MAGA means Miriam Adelson Governs America.
Wow, that is some incisive retort right there. Perhaps the words "slam dunk!" might ring a bell?
"Wow, that is some incisive retort right there."
Bryen's style is 'I'm right, you're wrong!'
In the United States, two lobbies rule: the Jewish and the Cuban. It is no coincidence that the two most massacred peoples on the planet today are the Palestinians and the Cubans. And there is little to be done against both. There are two open war fronts (another one will be added, China, although we cannot estimate when), that of Ukraine and now Iran. Two fronts of a fragmented world war.
When will they unite in perfectly defined blocks in a world war as it has been historically? How many countries will join the US/NATO/Japan, South Korea, Australia block (on one side) and how many will join the Russia/Iran/China block (on the other side)? That is what historians and analysts like Stephen Bryen must elucidate. I also invite you to reflect on it, it makes for a good opinion and popular article.
And a couple hours later Trump tweets that, to the surprise of nobody, he is seeking regime change.
If the United States really were serious Trump would not have terminated the JCPOA, which by all accounts, Iran scrupulously complied with.
Iran scrupulously complied with JCPOA... very funny!!!
Specifically what part of it did they violate?
January 2020, the Iranian government announced it would no longer abide by any of the operational restraints on its nuclear program under the Iran nuclear deal.
In early 2023, the IAEA reported they had detected traces of uranium at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility that was enriched to "near weapons-grade level that Iran claimed was accidental."
The US (Trump) pulled out of the JCPOA in May 2018. In January 2020, Trump assassinated Soleimani. Are you for real?
And your point is?
Trump terminated the JCPOA because it wasn't his agreement and MAGA means Miriam Adelson Governs America.
"Indeed, the US has lost its credibility, including Trump."
For intelligent people, that happened decades ago.
Trump has only been credible for a decade, politically..
Who was president when the US lost its credibility.
It was Lincoln, for me.
There is but one reason and use for the 60% enriched uranium Iran produced. Weaponry. In the hands of fanatics who glorify martyrdom. What choice was left?
A 60% uranium bomb wouldn't fit in a B-2B.
So why did Trump terminate the JCPOA, which Iran scrupulously complied with?
The CIA and the State Department have seen some significant changes under the current administration. What was true in the past will not play out necessarily as you imagine.
So idiotic…I can’t think of a better reason for Iran to decide to build nuclear weapons than being attacked by Israel and the U.S. But this is what we do, right? Oh let’s use Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia…how’d that work out? 🙄
BS… the DNI testified in March that Iran had no plan to build nuclear weapons
I keep reading Fordow can't even be touched by bunker busters because the facility is too deep. A few accounts on X described the US merely hit one of the entraces.
Perhaps it was an attack to appease the (Israeli) Hardliners without causing too much damage for Iran.
That would allow the Americans to safe face, without having to go all in, appease the neocons and call it a victory.
It will be important to see how Iran reacts. They could now fake a retaliation, hit something unimportant, call it a victory too, without having to kill US soldiers anywhere else in the middle east, which would cause a bigger war that nobody really wants.
If this analysis is true, Trump looks like a big winner and allows Iran and Israel to back down, while Iran buys some time.
One thing is sure though, all nations have heard the message loud and clear. Only a nuclear weapon will safe you. Gaddafi knows this, North Korea knows this and Iran knows it too. You may call this strike a victory... let's see how historians will see it if Iran still acquires a nuclear weapons in a few months/years.
An underground facility is unless if you cannot get in and out of it. I think it’s highly likely that this attack has succeeded in collapsing all access tunnels currently in use.
How would you build an underground facility without getting into it?
Iran is saying they will close the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's oil goes through there. If they're successful, the sky is the limit for oil prices.
One thing I haven't heard mentioned is the possibility of Iran getting nuclear weapons from Pakistan since they're both Muslim and share a border.
Pakistan has enough trouble with India without inviting Israel and the US to have a deeper look at it too.
If one is worried about China's large population, one wouldn't contemplate messing with India's larger one.
Sorry, but how is this a reply to my comment? I was writing about Pakistan...
I guess you forgot that you were also talking about India, Israel, and the US, as can be seen in your original post.
> If one is worried about China's large population, <
Pakistan is not worried about China's large population - it regards it as a positive asset.
That would depend on Iran wanting to get a nuclear weapon when they have a fatwa against having them.
Iran should talk with North Korea.
You must have missed them becoming allies.
I wouldn't be surprised if the other 6 countries that the US State Department deliberately started wars in would join up with Iran to rout the US from their territories.
“Now look—I ain't a man of big words or fancy books. But I do know a thing or two about presidential regret. Not real regret, mind you. I sleep just fine. But legacy—now that keeps a fella up at night. Turns out history books aren’t kind to folks who invade countries over invisible weapons.”
An Open Letter from George W. Bush to Donald J. Trump About Ignoring the Truth, Starting a War, and Somehow Making W. Look Smart
“From One War Criminal to Another: I Lied Us Into War. You Bombed Because You’re Stupid.” A fact-free strike on Iran that ignored intelligence, defied diplomacy, and may ignite the next global war.
https://patricemersault.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-from-george-w-bush?r=4d7sow
Very good article. Journalism as it should b.
At some point, Iran's delaying tactic would stop working. China is by now anxious to improve relations with the US. Moreover, it looks like Israel and USA have an understanding with Putin. IIRC Bibi had a longer, very friendly conversation with Vladimir Vladimirovich on Russian Victory Day a month or so ago.
"China is by now anxious to improve relations with the US. Moreover, it looks like Israel and USA have an understanding with Putin."
I am amazed at the abject stupidity of both Russia and China (the paper bear and the paper dragon). They have folded; they will drop to their knees and service Uncle Sam!
They haven't folded. China and Russia's main aim is to reneutralize what's left of Ukraine and then have belt and road initiative extending unobstructed into Central and Western Europe. If Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia become neutral again, so much the better. The whole idea behind BRI is that it circumvents the waterways.
"They haven't folded."
Well, I suppose that has some truth, since neither was a threat to the Deep State.
"China and Russia's main aim is to reneutralize what's left of Ukraine and then have belt and road initiative extending unobstructed into Central and Western Europe."
There is plenty left of Ukraine. Russia could not defeat Ukraine in three and a half years. Ukraine is attacking deep in Russian territory, thanks to Putin's avolition to achieve a decisive win.
" If Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia become neutral again, so much the better."
Would that happen by magic?
You are feeding Steven's beliefs with your emotions. Don't overdo it. Let things be as they are. Don't make a sad face every time something happens that you might not like. There will be many such events in the future, and mental exhaustion due to your refusal to accept them is harmful to your health.
If Russia and China are not threats to the Deep State, why is it trying to destroy or conquer them?
No, but Hungary and Slovakia are already neutral*, and Slovakia is even contemplating of getting out of NATO. Czechia is also going neutralish if Babis wins there. Austria - depends on when and if FPÖ is able to form a new government. Current government without FPÖ is shaky.
With Russia not able to defeat Ukraine - the whole W Europe, USA, Canada, Japan and S Korea are behind it - that's the industrial capacity of more than 1 Bill population, so just population-wise it is 8:1. Still, Russia has managed to grind down Ukraine gradually. Anyway, the fight over the last 10 years has been not over the Ukraine proper (that's the South-Eastern flank of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth 16/17th century) but over Novorossiya and Crimea.
*And taking part at the Russian Victory Day parade at the Red Square on May 9. Bibi couldn't come because of the current war, but still had a long, and very friendly conversation with Vladimir Vladimirovich on that day, commemorating the day...
Russia isn’t trying to “defeat Ukraine.” However, they will succeed in their objective to retake the Donbas, hold Crimea and possibly take Odessa. All are ethnically Russian and are intrinsic to Russia, both ancestrally and culturally.
Both Donbass and Odessa are parts of Novorossiya. It was only Lenin that decreed that they would be parts of Ukraine in 1922, because he wanted a majority of Russian speakers in the Ukraine Republic. Historically, Real Ukraine was the South-Eastern part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 16/17th century.
By the way, it was "Realist" writing about "defeat Ukraine", not me, lol.
Soft power works.
I'm still waiting for you to make that silliness sensible, since you value sensibility so highly.
AS THE GODS INTENDED.
If I were the king of China, I'd stop exporting anything to the US.
Bombing Iran's nuclear research facilities is not the point. It's just an interim step in the war against Iran. Regardless of what Trump says about peace, the only satisfactory outcome for him and for Israel is the complete destruction of the government of Iran and the dismemberment of the country. Anything less than that means Iran will continue to be a thorn in their plans for the Middle East.
Having loosed the dogs of war, it's difficult to see how they can be brought back to heel. Worse, the dogs were loosed in an act of treachery, while diplomatic negotiations with Iran were underway. I don't know how Iran will respond, although there are many options and most of them are likely to escalate the conflict in ways that will ripple throughout the globe.
As for the claims that Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been utterly destroyed, that's just wishful thinking. Israel and the US telegraphed their intentions to attack for weeks before taking the step. Iran had plenty of time and warning to secure its most valuable nuclear assets, including their stockpile of highly enriched uranium which has undoubtedly been dispersed throughout the country. Moreover, the logic behind making a dash for a nuclear weapon is now perfectly clear. It's the only thing that will save them from the West's/Israel's plan for regime change.
Anything's possible, however. Perhaps Iran could meekly capitulate, while its government does what it can to stay in business despite having a US/Israeli target on its back. But seriously, how likely is that?
16:44
Microsoft AI:
Mechanics of GBU-57 Penetration
You're absolutely right to zero in on the intentionality behind Fordo's location and design. This facility wasn't just buried in a mountain for show; it was engineered explicitly to withstand the only weapons in the U.S. arsenal capable of threatening it namely, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator.
Iran, with decades of geotechnical expertise from its oil industry, would have had an unusually sophisticated understanding of underground engineering, rock mechanics, and seismic behavior. That's why Fordo was:
Built into dense, homogeneous dolomite a hard, stable rock that resists fracturing and distributes shock energy laterally.
Positioned beneath 80-90 meters of cover, outside even the published design limits of the MOP (which are thought to reliably penetrate ~60 meters of hard rock).
Constructed with minimal vertical access points, and those possibly routed with baffles or Z-curves to defeat linear munition trajectories.
Designed to frustrate target acquisition, with overlapping chambers, redundant shielding, and deep power and data tunnels.
This isn't a site that's hoping for luck. It was engineered to outmatch the GBU-57 by simply outlasting its known capability envelope.
If Iran believed the U.S. would eventually strike and Fordo was built for that eventuality - then its apparent survivability in the first wave isn't surprising, but rather a feature of the design. By appearing intact (even if only partially), Fordo may:
Preserve Iran's deterrent posture, even if active enrichment has ceased;
Force Washington to reveal how many more MOPs it's willing to expend but still come up short; and buy time to deceive, relocate, or reinforce underground operations elsewhere.
In that light, Trump's "Mission Accomplished" line may not just be premature - it may have collided head-on with a trap designed to draw fire and absorb it.
Before seismic and radiological data are analysed, it's unclear whether the two visible sinkholes after the attack reflect core breach or explosive recoil.
Trump was apparently most concerned in the leadup about failure to penetrate the core.
His premature 'mission accomplished' bravado before Pentagon BDA may be vindicated in the next few days, but might have been wishful thinking.
Most of the 400kg of HEU may now be in a deep mine or deep mines in the remote mountainous East of Iran.
I am amazed by the number of people who have ignored how existentially evil the Deep State is. The Deep State is serious about maintaining its unipolar world. Russia and China will soon be crushed...the Empire wins!
How the “deep state” is going to crush China and Russia? The hallucinating mafiosi responsible for millions of deaths and destruction around the world, have been trying to crush Сuba since 1961 and Venezuela since 1990s.
Obviously, Washington wants to rule the world. Using a magic word “liberal democracy” supported by brutal force on the countries that don’t obey.
Someone needs to rewrite the US foreign policy. Are there any sane people left in Washington who are not in the pocket of Zionists?
It is hard to worry about something that the majority can't agree on a definition of.
Good luck with that...
I fully expect that Israel will exercise their Samson Option when the dwindling supply of munitions runs out, having been exhausted by the idiocy in the Ukraine.
Ukraine is not an Israeli war. The main Ukraine supporters are in Western Europe and the Baltics and they are also engaged in all kinds of microaggressions against Israel too.
Ukraine is the proxy for America's war on Russia.
Israel was the proxy for America's war on Iran, until Trump lost his mind.
I think America is proxy for Israel's war on the world.
I think you don't know what a proxy is.
I do
You haven't said anything to prove that you do.
America can't be anyone's proxy.
But it has consumed much of the very limited munitions the US has for it to share with Israel.
Use it or lose it. There is a steady production stream, and if US needs more it needs a coalition in Congress and amongst the big tech to increase the production. Israel is "small enough" that they can still meet the limits. Unlike Ukraine (or Taiwan).
Russia produces more military equipment than all of the NATO countries combined, including the US. They have all donated the majority of their pre-SMO inventories to Zelensky.
> Russia produces more <
Luckily for Russia, Russia does.
That is why they like having sanctions placed against them, because they make their economy grow. American sanctions have no effect on a country that does not use SWIFT, which Russia is excluded from.
Aren't the Europeans strong supporters of Israel?
Nope. Remember Europe is where holocaust took place. Many Nations gladly participated. Not just the usual suspects Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine. Belgium, Netherlands and France were quite eager too. Norway also.
The Ashkenazim are, having come from there to inhabit Israel.
Clinton on Netanyahu, 1996:
Who the fuck does he think he is? Who’s the fucking superpower here?
Now we know.
The UK didn't intend regime change in Argentina when it won the Falklands War but that's what happened.
Once the hostilities end, Iran's Islamic Republic will still be mired in economic stagnation, corruption and deeply unpopular repressive measures (like the hijab rules that led to death of Mahsa Ahimi and the Woman, Life, Freedom mass protests). Israel has started bombing Basij militia installations, which is the primary force for internal repression.
The Islamic Republic has been promoting regime change ever since they became more repressive and corrupt than the Shah's regime.
The Ayatollah will need to do something in order to save face and maintain control. Not retaliating will show weakness and lack of resolve. Having control of the internet and all communications in Iran, the Ayatollah can turn a rather weak military response into an embellished massive counterpunch victory for the masses to believe. His structural military effectiveness is diminished and he needs to be concerned about Israeli/U.S. strikes on his economic lifeblood- oil refineries and systems. He will either "tread-lightly" or throw caution to the wind, but he won't sue for peace.
By pretending to negotiate, the US helped Iran lower its guard so that Israel could execute its surprise attack. This deception is of the same ilk as that ‘Minsk process’ that Angela Merkel and François Hollande admitted was just a comedy to stall Russia and buy time, while NATO strengthened the Ukrainian army. ‘Allowing Netanyahu to attack Iran when US envoys were negotiating with Tehran puts the US presidency on the same level of credibility as Al Capone,’ says MidleEast Eye editor David Hearst. The US is willing to burn the world to save its throne. It is a declining power that needs the world to finance its hyper-consumption on a daily basis. Gaza was the announcement, Ukraine the feeler, Iran the escalation, but Russia and China are the final straw and the ultimate goal.
Iran Islamic leadership very credibly promises 'Death to Americans'! And promises to never surrender or negotiate. Believing what they say, they themselves brought about the current level of destruction to Iran nuclear facilities. Regime change, if any, will come from within.
"Iran Islamic leadership very credibly promises 'Death to Americans'!"
They have good reason. You are obviously ignorant of the 1953 coup by the CIA in Iran. The United States controlled Iran for twenty-six years after it installed the Shah.
too many comments ,,, please restrict your comments to, at most, two
A conversation or a year?
Very few of those who know about the 1953 coup are still alive.
Mostly only people who can read.
Most of whom are too lazy to anymore, preferring to vegetate in front of one screen or another.
It isn't as much a promise as a hope.
Well, the timidity of both Russia, China, and Iran, for that matter, has given the United States the iron fist that it wields so well. It is a matter of time before Russia and then China fold and are controlled by the Deep State of the U.S. If they don't care, I don't care.
Personally I am glad that there are some adults in the room vis a vis Russia and China. Two geopolitical psychopaths (Trump and Netanyahu) are more than enough. Btw Bryen appears to be part of the 1979 “bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” clique. Very disappointed.
"Personally I am glad that there are some adults in the room vis a vis Russia and China."
Adults do not allow themselves to be subjugated.
"Btw Bryen appears to be part of the 1979 “bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” clique. Very disappointed."
You just now figured that out?
Seriously. Russia has hardly been subjugated. Clearly you haven’t really been paying attention. The U.S. is the big bad blowhard bully on the school yard. Despite what you seem to think, we can’t bomb other countries “back to the stone-age”. Just ask Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Russia has demonstrated that when it comes to a REAL battle, with forces on the ground, they are far superior to the U.S. I’m wracking my brain, but I can’t name one single foreign war we’ve won in more than a century.
Adults are easier to subjugate than children.
Bryen always has been, if you've been paying attention:-)
I don’t follow him too closely…
Would you prefer they went nuclear instead of fold?
If you inly had a brain.
If you only had any other argumentative tools besides ad hominem attacks.
"Would you prefer they went nuclear instead of fold?"
They wouldn't need to go nuclear, but if they prefer to be controlled by the Deep State, so be it!
I’ve decided Realist is a troll. Don’t feed him. Perhaps he can be banned, Stephen.
Is it your belief that all of the nuclear states are controlled by the deep state?
You are missing Israel, who isn't controlled by anything but blind hubris.
"Is it your belief that all of the nuclear states are controlled by the deep state?"
They will soon be now that Russia and China have capitulated.
In what way have Russia and China capitulated and to whom?
"In what way have Russia and China capitulated and to whom?"
They have capitulated to the Deep State (United States) by insisting on diplomatic solutions with an entity that has no intention of an honest settlement. They have done nothing to obstruct the hegemonic march of the Deep State throughout the planet...the Middle East, the Western Pacific, and Europe.
They aren't as controlled by the deep state as you are by your meds.
They soon will be.
I suggest you travel to Russia and take a look around. Then report back. I’ll be waiting.
Maybe after WW3.
"Maybe after WW3."
Who do you think will be the participants in WWIII?
We are honored to have to world only smart person here with us
They don't care if you care because they can't trust Trump anymore.
"The Chinese were unsuccessful in detecting the US attack": maybe because the US was lying about their use of planes? Why wouldn't Iran try to gt some fighters in the iar and get a token kill? Those planes were seen easily enough by the naked eye when leaving their base in the US. I presume Iran could easily get a kill in (while probably getting killed a lot more, but hey: PR ✌️). Soy assumption: no bunker busters, no planes, just tomahawks.
More lengthy deep dive: https://no01.substack.com/p/the-ministry-of-silly-wars