The small workshop method is superior to mass production? Interesting.
I’m betting America is going to make some whizz bang AI swarm type drones that cost $250,000 each at a few hundred a year. That is the US way of war. Wall st first, corrupt politicians second, no wait Israel first, and 4th protection of the homeland.
I’d listen to Alexander Mercuris and get a sense of what is really going on. Artisan production is nice for food and clothing (for $$) but in a war of attrition it is utterly doomed to failure.
You may be interested to know that the Ukrainian troops on the ground know for sure who is ahead and who is behind.
They not only believe that Russia is far ahead but they are actively resentful of their own and the west's leadership that this could end up being the case. Especially since western media and analysts refuse to believe that this actually is the case and which results in a refusal to deal with it. While they hate the Russians, they expect them to be what they are and acknowledge their capability when clearly demonstrated. But they hate the degenerate corrupt west (their words) even more for its role in their situation.
After reading many accounts from Ukrainian troops in combat, it is shocking to see analyses like this one say that Ukraine is somehow ahead in drone design and utility in the field.
Ukraine is ahead right now but Russia is catching up. We know this because of the pace of movement in the battle field and the fact it is still back and forth. When it stops being back and forth, we know who is leading and it will move fast. Thats why Russia is not negotiating very fast, they think they can slow bleed the west on this.
I had a neighbor that was very old and fought in the Afrika Corp in WW2. He said when fighting the Americans, you could not take out too many tanks at range or they would start the bombing and artillery for days again. Said it took weeks before he even saw an American.
Your post assumes that Russia is currently fighting the kind of war in Ukraine that you think is the way wars are fought because that is how America has been doing it. EG: most of the troop action is taking place ten or fifteen miles behind the Ukrainian side of the line of contact. That sort of action is not in the American playbook.
Back and forth is irrelevant in the Russian doctrine in this conflict. It matters to you but not to the Russians. What the Russian goal is the demilitarization of Ukraine. The Russians have said that NATO and Ukraine agree or Russia will do it for them. NATO and Russia didn't agree so Russia now has the felt necessity to eliminate Ukraine's military and its ability to ever field one in the foreseeable future. That means killing Ukrainian troops until there are none left to kill if necessary.
The Ukrainians are obliging by forcibly rounding up all the possible military age men and sending them into battle where they have to stay until they are killed or severely wounded. For the Ukrainians there is no such thing as a tour of duty. The conscript is in it until it's over, either for him or the conflict itself.
For the Russians, the conflict isn't about taking and holding a village. It is about killing the Ukrainian troops that are sent to desperately hold or to counterattack against overwhelming artillery, rockets, bombs, and massive coverage by superior drones which give the bombardment maximum precision.
One of the major steps in the process is moving like water around a fortified village while obliterating it. Then they can cut off supplies and reinforcements for whatever their long term target is. If the Ukrainians want to send in a major force for a big battle, the Russians will cooperate, pull back and let the Ukrainians take back whatever obscure village which is now firmly in their kill zone. Take it back until the Ukrainian forces crumble. The tragedy is that the individual Ukrainian soldiers will stand and fight to last man in these hopeless battles.
The Russian objective is attrition of the enemy. The Ukrainian objective is to hold territory at all costs. The Russians are achieving their objective. The Ukrainians are failing in achieving their objective. It is a slow rolling massive victory for Russia. With added bonus points because they are bleeding NATO of resources and even its will to fight.
If you look at my comment history, i have said the same thing. Russia is bleeding NATO and the US with the way they fight war. They have no reason to sue for peace. I have heard Russian soldiers that have served their time in the Wall Street Journey and accidently showed that Russians join, serve and go home. This is all so terrible and we are not able to stop it even though we created it.
What I am saying is the US knows that they must stay quiet until they fight the next war so they can use their advantage which is a limited time option now that war is so rapidly evoving.
You are correct. Most of the Russian army is composed of contract soldiers. They sign up for a specific period and then are released. However, it must be said that they are then regarded as a deep reserve. If things were to get really bad they could be reactivated without hesitation.
The Russian contract soldiers are extremely well paid by any standard and especially by typical Russian wage levels. Their contracts vary in length but can be as short as six months if they have experience. Some sign up for six months, build up a big payout and take six months or so off. That enables them to work at seasonal jobs back home or just lay around and party.
They are regarded as heroes back home and if they put sufficient time in are virtually guaranteed a nice government job. If the Russian casualty rates were even remotely like what the western media claim, no one in their right mind would take a short term job in the army.
When in combat, Russian soldiers are regularly rotated from the front lines if that is where they are serving. Having plenty of manpower means you can have a theater reserve behind your front lines. The troops are as well rested and ready as one can expect in the middle of a high intensity war zone.
Conscripts serve for one year, get paid s**t and get treated like s**t. By law, they do not serve outside the country. However, now that Russia has annexed large parts of what was Ukraine, they can legally be sent in to the current combat.
Look, at the end of WW2 Germany had superior tanks and aircraft compared to Soviet Union. Yet Soviet Union won, because it had far outproduced the Germans.
That's the point. Agree completely there. And the Western upbuild in manufacturing has not been reassuring. For Israel, for example, this - together with the pending W European boycotts - means that one would have to produce everything at scale on location.
Monolithic organizations with deeply-embedded structure and operational methods aren’t usually known for their ability to rapidly change those methods. So it will be interesting to see if Secretary Hegseth is able to shift thinking in the US armed forces regarding drone warfare. In addition to the difficulties in changing the Pentagon’s direction, the entire culture of military procurement in the US isn’t geared towards cheap battlefield drones. America’s MIC prefers to deliver limited quantities of hideously expensive weapons and material, as this maximizes profit.
Ukraine and Russia had to respond to changes on the battlefield out of absolute necessity. But when you’re sitting in your cozy office at the DOD, or being pitched the latest gee-whizz weapon by a lobbyist over an expensive dinner, change may not be the first thing on your mind.
I like your point. As much as I agree that the FDR (Secretary of the Navy) approach with Doolittle out proving it could work, at this point they all already watched this show back when Armenia was fighting Assistan.
If I were the US and already had a solution for this issue, I would not play or show my card at all. My question to you is, when was the last time General Atomics made a well known drones? YFQ-42A for the Air Force's CCA program or the MQ-9B SkyGuardian? Nah they are up to something and cant wait to see what it is.
If I took a wild guess, the small awesome drones would dump out of a back of a C17 at high altitude by the thousands and glide on in with little energy, all controlled by multiple ways at once with AI programing, and thousands of airmen and seamen driving them from a desk.
Edit: Matter of fact, I would be leaving all of this obsolete Equipement to the Taliban in Afghanistan, I would be selling as much as I can to Europe as well before they found out what we have made. Notsure you remember when the folks in the Empty Quarter were told that their tanks could move and shoot much faster than anyone knew and they updated the software in the field for the tankers right before battle
"A better approach would be to identify suppliers outside the US that can manufacture key components competitively and rapidly ..."
Which takes us back to the Gulf War real-world experience where the Swiss manufacturer of key parts for US guided bombs baulked at supplying those items once they were actually being used in war. Reliance on overseas suppliers during a war is a recipe for disaster! Planning to rely on such suppliers would be extremely foolish -- especially since most of those suppliers would themselves be dependent on Russia for materials and China for parts (as is the US itself today).
China and Russia have probably already learned from the mistakes of the US political/business class. They are clearly in the process of internalizing their production of weapons systems on which they plan to depend. It will be no surprise if other countries like Brazil, India, Vietnam follow the same path.
The real alternative for the US is to focus only on the defense of the United States itself. Withdraw from entangling alliances around the world. Close all the foreign bases, especially those in belligerent Europe. Cease trying to play the world's unthanked hated policeman. But that approach is anathema to our Political Class and their allies in the Military Industrial Complex.
If the US outsources its military procurement to countries which may not be willing or able to keep supplying those items during a protracted war (i.e. any country we care to mention), then stockpiling would be an essential precaution against the inevitable supply interruptions.
However, that would raise the question about how big (& expensive) those stockpiles would need to be -- enough for a 6-day war? a 5 year war, like WWII? a 20-year war like Afghanistan? Then there is the issue of technological obsolescence of that stockpiled material -- especially in an area such as drone warfare where technology is advancing rapidly. And technology always advances rapidly in modern warfare.
The message of the proxy war in the Ukraine is that an active belligerent needs to be able to produce the materials needed domestically, and produce them at scale. Or -- the alternative -- avoid becoming a belligerent except when a country is attacked on its home territory.
As others have noted, it is not so that Ukrainian drone technology is superior to Russia. In fact current thinking is that the Russians have an increasing advantage. Even the head of Azov stated this in a very recent interview. (Refer very recent Simplicius post on substack.
I'm not sure what having the most advanced program but not the most advanced result means. It can't be about numbers because Russia has the most drones of all types and, importantly, by far the most skilled operators.
Questionable on both counts. Your “independence” seems completely aligned with US party line. And according to a couple of AI’s there is no evidence he is Russian- what is your source for that ?
No your analysis reflects your American cultural bias. It is not nonsense, but a fact of life, it applies to everyone, irrespective of culture.
I checked a couple more AI’s and again no evidence he is Russian or any other nationality. A couple of articles on his Dark Futura site seem to imply he lives in the US.
I would be interested in your sources for the Russian with a large staff. It certainly doesn’t seem to be public knowledge. Thanks in advance
I see nothing in his posts that would lead me to believe he is Russian. Everything I have read that he posts is from a Ukrainian perspective. Some people say he is *pro Russian* but he does focus on the reality of the Ukrainian status.
People say I am pro Russian too even though I believe me and my family are in great danger from possible Russian military moves. Moves that the Western leadership and populace are double dog daring the Russians to make.
The US "official outlook" and "part like" change from day to day now, sometimes from tweet to tweet. And our agencies keep contradicting one another, "Hussein."
"According to a couple of AIs"
Simp repeats Russian MOD narratives, often verbatim
"His" framing of Russia as strategically competent and Ukraine as hopelessly corrupt/incompetent,
"His" painting Western weapons as ineffective or escalatory.
"His" amplifying Russian MoD claims even when they are widely debunked in OSINT circles.
To late… this train has left the station, the U.S is well and truly behind the 8 ball in this field, you lack the most vital metric necessary to ensure success in this endeavour hardened battle experience .. both on offense and on defense… Ukraines drone program despite what your propaganda and disingenuous feel good Ukrainians reporting advises is light years behind Russian drone manufacturers whilst they are behind the supremo’s in the field of drones… Iran, if the F35 results and costs are anything to use as a benchmark for this next chapter in U.S military evolution all that is left to say.. is the best of luck in attaining your hoped for wishful thinking… reality is as with all other U.S supposed game changers used and exposed in the Ukrainian and Israel theatres recently… all have been found wanting not to mention your vaunted military exceptionalism couldn’t even defeat the Anshan Allah aka… Houthi… point made me thinks.. but best of to you.. sadly your military relying on whatever comes off the assembly lines for this tech will only find out at great cost to their personal safety the true reality of what will be another over hyped fiction…
Just saying.. ( Kia Kaha) stay strong From New Zealand
I’m sorry, but our water is great, refreshing, plentiful, there is no hatred for the U.S quite the opposite, I have a strong affection for the U.S its peoples, have travelled up there so many times and cross crossed that vast country visiting nearly every state capital and major city, I have family, a sister married and living in Salt Lake City together my nieces and nephews whilst my mother who had married a retired U.S serviceman lived in Vegas a city I visited many times including dragging my family with me on many trips taken up there… I find American people great, they are kind, courteous, polite, self effacing, helpful and will do anything for you, indeed very much a lot alike people’s everywhere, found anywhere else on this vast planet… at least that has been my experience given my travels around this world.
What I find appalling is when truth and reality cannot be acknowledged nor abided, when our so called leaders and polite society are anything but, indeed are corrupt, have corrupted all that was once good, was established to ensure the benefit of all, not the few, especially those who are nothing more than chameleons, grifters, liars and frauds, such as now inculcate and populate many of the top positions in corporate management, in state capitals, in your nations capital be they elected or unelected, arrogant, self entitled… a cancer that has sadly metastasised and spread to what once were democratic nation states founded upon the principles of Christianity, these frauds claim adherence to christian beliefs yet their very acts and deeds bely that which they claim… yep, it is exactly that I cannot abide, alongside a lack of acknowledging truth, fact and reality such as I wrote of prompting your reply…
It will be interesting to see how the US military-industrial complex deals with the practical implications of “only America first.”
The US withdrawal from its international security guarantees, troop deployments, soft power investment, etc creates a risk of the US defense industry modernizing in an isolated and “theoretical” environment.
There will be much more competition for US makers as European budgets grow. Will they buy F-16s or Gripens?
How will their relationship with Ukraine evolve as Trump eliminates direct aid?
The AFU has been very helpful to US defense companies’ testing due to US direct support. Zelenskyy has directed them to create more organized process for testing of foreign weapons.
But if Europe is providing the aid and the US is not, whose weapons will get tested in the battlefield? Obviously European makers will be prioritized if they are contributing to Ukrainian defense. Why would Ukrainian brigades want Europe to pay for drones from Anduril or Neros rather than from either EU or Ukrainian makers?
Will US manufacturers offer Ukraine incentives to test their weapons? What is fair compensation to the the people who are risking their lives thousands of kilometers from Camp Attenborough?
Maybe I'm missing something, but all the emphasis is on more drones of increasingly sophisticated and complicated technology. What's really needed is an automated anti-drone weapon. To stop the smaller drones you only have to hit one of 4 propellers. A rapid fire gun using buckshot projectiles controlled by radar and automated for close in defense for every armored vehicle. Perhaps a speciality vehicle with larger longer range projectiles with proximity frag shells, again radar controlled. Throw AI into the mix if you want. We've had Vulcan cannons on the A7's I flew in the 70's that could fire 6000 50 caliber projectiles a minute. Surely a rapid fire weapon throwing proximity projectiles the same size as from a grenade launcher shouldn't be that difficult. Or you can keep covering you armor with nets instead of shooting down the drones. Back to basics.
Such a timely and necessary article. Our people need to be working round the clock on this. You correctly highlight the strengths and weaknesses in Hegseth’s proposals. Personally I’m not sure we can change an institutional culture geared to slow and expensive improvement. I can only hope we can make the necessary radical cultural changes.
Sergey may be looking forward with a large proportion of American fundamentalists to rapture, but I'm hoping people will see the - to me unwelcome - dangers of mainly US escalation, and try to find some way of arresting an apocalyptic dynamic before it's too late.
NW UAV has been around almost 20 years and has a great business model. Their focus is on making UAV engines. Plug and insert in the drone of your choice. That allows customers to have their own engineers focus on “the rest” of the vehicle. The customers save big bucks (and time) buying OTS made in USA components
The most amazing and common use of drones in recent wars are for testing purposes. Even in India Pakistan recent war, drones were being used just to test each other's defense systems.
Can anyone vouch for the continuation of the development of unmanned military technology programs after the end of the battle for Ukraine? If Russia begins to produce various models and types of drones for "storage," then the very purpose of their use will be lost. Perhaps the Pentagon, with its current clumsiness and corruption, is doing America a great service by lagging behind in its military drone programs? Perhaps America should try to become a leader in this field in the civilian sector, where many things are stable and can be standardized. At least the United States has the opportunity to conduct a thorough military analysis. Wars eventually come to an end, and all strategies and weapons become obsolete, quickly becoming ineffective for future wars. The current "excellent" effectiveness of drones is due to their constant use and daily changes in tactics. I do not know what awaits the Ukrainians in the future, but the Russians will face this challenge: once the war ends, all military orders will be reduced or suspended.
The machine gun had been around a long time. The cannon even longer. Every recruit learns to use a rifle at least to some degree. A semi automatic rifle and a musket are both rifles. Muskets are useless in combat compared to assault type guns but they are still rifles. Close in air surveillance and ordinance delivery will be with us for a long time to come. It might look and function differently but it will still be a drone in the sense we use the term. And of course, they are in constant and growing use in the civilian sector.
You state that the Ukrainian Drone program is better than the Russian one, but i do not recall you mentioning the characteristics or criteria that make up the comparison or what neutral authority has made the comparison(s), determined the categories to be considered, and/or run the trials that compared types of drones and their capabilities.
Can you share this information so that it is clearer what "being better" means, in reality?
And I would like to know about the anti-drone drone programs of each side, if you have some information on that.
I think you did not follow what I wrote. Ukraine's organization is better in my view because it reaches to the top of their defense system. Organization is not the same thing as products.
The small workshop method is superior to mass production? Interesting.
I’m betting America is going to make some whizz bang AI swarm type drones that cost $250,000 each at a few hundred a year. That is the US way of war. Wall st first, corrupt politicians second, no wait Israel first, and 4th protection of the homeland.
I think that's making a virtue of necessity. Any large drone-making factory in Ukraine will be destroyed sooner or later.
I’d listen to Alexander Mercuris and get a sense of what is really going on. Artisan production is nice for food and clothing (for $$) but in a war of attrition it is utterly doomed to failure.
Whilst Ukraine was ahead in terms of deploying drones and building out its own design and assembly, today, it is difficult to be precise who is ahead.
In some respects Ukraine outdoes Russia, in others it is behind.
You may be interested to know that the Ukrainian troops on the ground know for sure who is ahead and who is behind.
They not only believe that Russia is far ahead but they are actively resentful of their own and the west's leadership that this could end up being the case. Especially since western media and analysts refuse to believe that this actually is the case and which results in a refusal to deal with it. While they hate the Russians, they expect them to be what they are and acknowledge their capability when clearly demonstrated. But they hate the degenerate corrupt west (their words) even more for its role in their situation.
After reading many accounts from Ukrainian troops in combat, it is shocking to see analyses like this one say that Ukraine is somehow ahead in drone design and utility in the field.
I read a blog post to that effect.
Ukraine is ahead right now but Russia is catching up. We know this because of the pace of movement in the battle field and the fact it is still back and forth. When it stops being back and forth, we know who is leading and it will move fast. Thats why Russia is not negotiating very fast, they think they can slow bleed the west on this.
I had a neighbor that was very old and fought in the Afrika Corp in WW2. He said when fighting the Americans, you could not take out too many tanks at range or they would start the bombing and artillery for days again. Said it took weeks before he even saw an American.
Your post assumes that Russia is currently fighting the kind of war in Ukraine that you think is the way wars are fought because that is how America has been doing it. EG: most of the troop action is taking place ten or fifteen miles behind the Ukrainian side of the line of contact. That sort of action is not in the American playbook.
Back and forth is irrelevant in the Russian doctrine in this conflict. It matters to you but not to the Russians. What the Russian goal is the demilitarization of Ukraine. The Russians have said that NATO and Ukraine agree or Russia will do it for them. NATO and Russia didn't agree so Russia now has the felt necessity to eliminate Ukraine's military and its ability to ever field one in the foreseeable future. That means killing Ukrainian troops until there are none left to kill if necessary.
The Ukrainians are obliging by forcibly rounding up all the possible military age men and sending them into battle where they have to stay until they are killed or severely wounded. For the Ukrainians there is no such thing as a tour of duty. The conscript is in it until it's over, either for him or the conflict itself.
For the Russians, the conflict isn't about taking and holding a village. It is about killing the Ukrainian troops that are sent to desperately hold or to counterattack against overwhelming artillery, rockets, bombs, and massive coverage by superior drones which give the bombardment maximum precision.
One of the major steps in the process is moving like water around a fortified village while obliterating it. Then they can cut off supplies and reinforcements for whatever their long term target is. If the Ukrainians want to send in a major force for a big battle, the Russians will cooperate, pull back and let the Ukrainians take back whatever obscure village which is now firmly in their kill zone. Take it back until the Ukrainian forces crumble. The tragedy is that the individual Ukrainian soldiers will stand and fight to last man in these hopeless battles.
The Russian objective is attrition of the enemy. The Ukrainian objective is to hold territory at all costs. The Russians are achieving their objective. The Ukrainians are failing in achieving their objective. It is a slow rolling massive victory for Russia. With added bonus points because they are bleeding NATO of resources and even its will to fight.
If you look at my comment history, i have said the same thing. Russia is bleeding NATO and the US with the way they fight war. They have no reason to sue for peace. I have heard Russian soldiers that have served their time in the Wall Street Journey and accidently showed that Russians join, serve and go home. This is all so terrible and we are not able to stop it even though we created it.
What I am saying is the US knows that they must stay quiet until they fight the next war so they can use their advantage which is a limited time option now that war is so rapidly evoving.
You are correct. Most of the Russian army is composed of contract soldiers. They sign up for a specific period and then are released. However, it must be said that they are then regarded as a deep reserve. If things were to get really bad they could be reactivated without hesitation.
The Russian contract soldiers are extremely well paid by any standard and especially by typical Russian wage levels. Their contracts vary in length but can be as short as six months if they have experience. Some sign up for six months, build up a big payout and take six months or so off. That enables them to work at seasonal jobs back home or just lay around and party.
They are regarded as heroes back home and if they put sufficient time in are virtually guaranteed a nice government job. If the Russian casualty rates were even remotely like what the western media claim, no one in their right mind would take a short term job in the army.
When in combat, Russian soldiers are regularly rotated from the front lines if that is where they are serving. Having plenty of manpower means you can have a theater reserve behind your front lines. The troops are as well rested and ready as one can expect in the middle of a high intensity war zone.
Conscripts serve for one year, get paid s**t and get treated like s**t. By law, they do not serve outside the country. However, now that Russia has annexed large parts of what was Ukraine, they can legally be sent in to the current combat.
Casualty figures are a good way to assess this, as a lot of KIAs and missing are now due to drones and no longer so much due to artillery.
I think of it in terms of types of drones, technologies, scalability and ability to indigenize production.
Look, at the end of WW2 Germany had superior tanks and aircraft compared to Soviet Union. Yet Soviet Union won, because it had far outproduced the Germans.
That is why scalability of production is a key criteria alongside innovation, technology and ability to indiginize key components.
Ukraine is uncompetitive in at least two if not three.
"Quantity is a quality of its own"
That's the point. Agree completely there. And the Western upbuild in manufacturing has not been reassuring. For Israel, for example, this - together with the pending W European boycotts - means that one would have to produce everything at scale on location.
Monolithic organizations with deeply-embedded structure and operational methods aren’t usually known for their ability to rapidly change those methods. So it will be interesting to see if Secretary Hegseth is able to shift thinking in the US armed forces regarding drone warfare. In addition to the difficulties in changing the Pentagon’s direction, the entire culture of military procurement in the US isn’t geared towards cheap battlefield drones. America’s MIC prefers to deliver limited quantities of hideously expensive weapons and material, as this maximizes profit.
Ukraine and Russia had to respond to changes on the battlefield out of absolute necessity. But when you’re sitting in your cozy office at the DOD, or being pitched the latest gee-whizz weapon by a lobbyist over an expensive dinner, change may not be the first thing on your mind.
I suspect it will be much like convincing the battleship admirals of the value of aircraft carriers in WWII.
I like your point. As much as I agree that the FDR (Secretary of the Navy) approach with Doolittle out proving it could work, at this point they all already watched this show back when Armenia was fighting Assistan.
If I were the US and already had a solution for this issue, I would not play or show my card at all. My question to you is, when was the last time General Atomics made a well known drones? YFQ-42A for the Air Force's CCA program or the MQ-9B SkyGuardian? Nah they are up to something and cant wait to see what it is.
If I took a wild guess, the small awesome drones would dump out of a back of a C17 at high altitude by the thousands and glide on in with little energy, all controlled by multiple ways at once with AI programing, and thousands of airmen and seamen driving them from a desk.
https://imgur.com/gallery/usaf-loadout-Ua4DwE1#CQ8H8xB
Edit: Matter of fact, I would be leaving all of this obsolete Equipement to the Taliban in Afghanistan, I would be selling as much as I can to Europe as well before they found out what we have made. Notsure you remember when the folks in the Empty Quarter were told that their tanks could move and shoot much faster than anyone knew and they updated the software in the field for the tankers right before battle
"A better approach would be to identify suppliers outside the US that can manufacture key components competitively and rapidly ..."
Which takes us back to the Gulf War real-world experience where the Swiss manufacturer of key parts for US guided bombs baulked at supplying those items once they were actually being used in war. Reliance on overseas suppliers during a war is a recipe for disaster! Planning to rely on such suppliers would be extremely foolish -- especially since most of those suppliers would themselves be dependent on Russia for materials and China for parts (as is the US itself today).
China and Russia have probably already learned from the mistakes of the US political/business class. They are clearly in the process of internalizing their production of weapons systems on which they plan to depend. It will be no surprise if other countries like Brazil, India, Vietnam follow the same path.
The real alternative for the US is to focus only on the defense of the United States itself. Withdraw from entangling alliances around the world. Close all the foreign bases, especially those in belligerent Europe. Cease trying to play the world's unthanked hated policeman. But that approach is anathema to our Political Class and their allies in the Military Industrial Complex.
There is no problem in stockpiling parts. I don't agree with either your solution.
If the US outsources its military procurement to countries which may not be willing or able to keep supplying those items during a protracted war (i.e. any country we care to mention), then stockpiling would be an essential precaution against the inevitable supply interruptions.
However, that would raise the question about how big (& expensive) those stockpiles would need to be -- enough for a 6-day war? a 5 year war, like WWII? a 20-year war like Afghanistan? Then there is the issue of technological obsolescence of that stockpiled material -- especially in an area such as drone warfare where technology is advancing rapidly. And technology always advances rapidly in modern warfare.
The message of the proxy war in the Ukraine is that an active belligerent needs to be able to produce the materials needed domestically, and produce them at scale. Or -- the alternative -- avoid becoming a belligerent except when a country is attacked on its home territory.
Ukraine has been such a great testing-ground for cheap new technology.
Pity about all the people getting killed and maimed and the towns and villages reduced to rubble.
But business is business.
Indeed. But that's been the business of Putin and his oligarchs for 25 years. And after all, Chechyna looks great now.
As others have noted, it is not so that Ukrainian drone technology is superior to Russia. In fact current thinking is that the Russians have an increasing advantage. Even the head of Azov stated this in a very recent interview. (Refer very recent Simplicius post on substack.
I read Simplicius but remember he is Russian and reflects the official outlook.
I did not say that Ukrainian technology was superior to Russia. I said Ukraine had the most advanced program, not the most advanced drones.
I'm not sure what having the most advanced program but not the most advanced result means. It can't be about numbers because Russia has the most drones of all types and, importantly, by far the most skilled operators.
And you are American and what you say reflects their official outlook. So what?
There is a big difference. I am independent and follow my nose. Simplicius follows someone else's.
Questionable on both counts. Your “independence” seems completely aligned with US party line. And according to a couple of AI’s there is no evidence he is Russian- what is your source for that ?
First off, he certainly is a Russian. Moreover, he has a (large) staff.
Secondly, what party line are you talking about. Total nonsense on your part.
No your analysis reflects your American cultural bias. It is not nonsense, but a fact of life, it applies to everyone, irrespective of culture.
I checked a couple more AI’s and again no evidence he is Russian or any other nationality. A couple of articles on his Dark Futura site seem to imply he lives in the US.
I would be interested in your sources for the Russian with a large staff. It certainly doesn’t seem to be public knowledge. Thanks in advance
I see nothing in his posts that would lead me to believe he is Russian. Everything I have read that he posts is from a Ukrainian perspective. Some people say he is *pro Russian* but he does focus on the reality of the Ukrainian status.
People say I am pro Russian too even though I believe me and my family are in great danger from possible Russian military moves. Moves that the Western leadership and populace are double dog daring the Russians to make.
The US "official outlook" and "part like" change from day to day now, sometimes from tweet to tweet. And our agencies keep contradicting one another, "Hussein."
"According to a couple of AIs"
Simp repeats Russian MOD narratives, often verbatim
"His" framing of Russia as strategically competent and Ukraine as hopelessly corrupt/incompetent,
"His" painting Western weapons as ineffective or escalatory.
"His" amplifying Russian MoD claims even when they are widely debunked in OSINT circles.
In the absence of a reply to the above, I can only assume that you actually don’t have any evidence to support your assertions.
To late… this train has left the station, the U.S is well and truly behind the 8 ball in this field, you lack the most vital metric necessary to ensure success in this endeavour hardened battle experience .. both on offense and on defense… Ukraines drone program despite what your propaganda and disingenuous feel good Ukrainians reporting advises is light years behind Russian drone manufacturers whilst they are behind the supremo’s in the field of drones… Iran, if the F35 results and costs are anything to use as a benchmark for this next chapter in U.S military evolution all that is left to say.. is the best of luck in attaining your hoped for wishful thinking… reality is as with all other U.S supposed game changers used and exposed in the Ukrainian and Israel theatres recently… all have been found wanting not to mention your vaunted military exceptionalism couldn’t even defeat the Anshan Allah aka… Houthi… point made me thinks.. but best of to you.. sadly your military relying on whatever comes off the assembly lines for this tech will only find out at great cost to their personal safety the true reality of what will be another over hyped fiction…
Just saying.. ( Kia Kaha) stay strong From New Zealand
you have strange water in New Zealand that makes you hate the United States.
Petya's comments strongly suggest vodka, not water.
I’m sorry, but our water is great, refreshing, plentiful, there is no hatred for the U.S quite the opposite, I have a strong affection for the U.S its peoples, have travelled up there so many times and cross crossed that vast country visiting nearly every state capital and major city, I have family, a sister married and living in Salt Lake City together my nieces and nephews whilst my mother who had married a retired U.S serviceman lived in Vegas a city I visited many times including dragging my family with me on many trips taken up there… I find American people great, they are kind, courteous, polite, self effacing, helpful and will do anything for you, indeed very much a lot alike people’s everywhere, found anywhere else on this vast planet… at least that has been my experience given my travels around this world.
What I find appalling is when truth and reality cannot be acknowledged nor abided, when our so called leaders and polite society are anything but, indeed are corrupt, have corrupted all that was once good, was established to ensure the benefit of all, not the few, especially those who are nothing more than chameleons, grifters, liars and frauds, such as now inculcate and populate many of the top positions in corporate management, in state capitals, in your nations capital be they elected or unelected, arrogant, self entitled… a cancer that has sadly metastasised and spread to what once were democratic nation states founded upon the principles of Christianity, these frauds claim adherence to christian beliefs yet their very acts and deeds bely that which they claim… yep, it is exactly that I cannot abide, alongside a lack of acknowledging truth, fact and reality such as I wrote of prompting your reply…
Best to you
Criticism of the US is now Hate Speech. The Zionists really do have the US by the balls, to the extent that they use the same absurd play book.
Along with most of the world in case you hadn’t noticed and not without good reason
It will be interesting to see how the US military-industrial complex deals with the practical implications of “only America first.”
The US withdrawal from its international security guarantees, troop deployments, soft power investment, etc creates a risk of the US defense industry modernizing in an isolated and “theoretical” environment.
There will be much more competition for US makers as European budgets grow. Will they buy F-16s or Gripens?
How will their relationship with Ukraine evolve as Trump eliminates direct aid?
The AFU has been very helpful to US defense companies’ testing due to US direct support. Zelenskyy has directed them to create more organized process for testing of foreign weapons.
But if Europe is providing the aid and the US is not, whose weapons will get tested in the battlefield? Obviously European makers will be prioritized if they are contributing to Ukrainian defense. Why would Ukrainian brigades want Europe to pay for drones from Anduril or Neros rather than from either EU or Ukrainian makers?
Will US manufacturers offer Ukraine incentives to test their weapons? What is fair compensation to the the people who are risking their lives thousands of kilometers from Camp Attenborough?
Maybe I'm missing something, but all the emphasis is on more drones of increasingly sophisticated and complicated technology. What's really needed is an automated anti-drone weapon. To stop the smaller drones you only have to hit one of 4 propellers. A rapid fire gun using buckshot projectiles controlled by radar and automated for close in defense for every armored vehicle. Perhaps a speciality vehicle with larger longer range projectiles with proximity frag shells, again radar controlled. Throw AI into the mix if you want. We've had Vulcan cannons on the A7's I flew in the 70's that could fire 6000 50 caliber projectiles a minute. Surely a rapid fire weapon throwing proximity projectiles the same size as from a grenade launcher shouldn't be that difficult. Or you can keep covering you armor with nets instead of shooting down the drones. Back to basics.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
Such a timely and necessary article. Our people need to be working round the clock on this. You correctly highlight the strengths and weaknesses in Hegseth’s proposals. Personally I’m not sure we can change an institutional culture geared to slow and expensive improvement. I can only hope we can make the necessary radical cultural changes.
In 5 years drones will be irrelevant.
Why?
Because WW3 will have obliterated humans?
Why do you guys keep hoping for ww3?
'You guys'?
Sergey may be looking forward with a large proportion of American fundamentalists to rapture, but I'm hoping people will see the - to me unwelcome - dangers of mainly US escalation, and try to find some way of arresting an apocalyptic dynamic before it's too late.
Starting with the Karabach war of 2021 and now the Ukraine war, it looks like drone and anti-drone warfare will be the new normal now.
Good article.
Here are a couple of new American companies working on the drone/anti-drone problem:
https://www.epirusinc.com/
https://www.anduril.com/ (I think Anduril has been mentioned by Mr. Bryen before)
I have mentioned Anduril before. It is a very neat company with a bright future.
In Ukraine “Anduril” is a verb as in “you Anduriled me.” Gave me an expensive thing that doesn’t work.
Ukrainians then, based on actual combat experience, rate Anduril as overpriced and not very effective.
By US military standards this certainly sounds like a bright future , especially given the “overpriced” tag
NW UAV has been around almost 20 years and has a great business model. Their focus is on making UAV engines. Plug and insert in the drone of your choice. That allows customers to have their own engineers focus on “the rest” of the vehicle. The customers save big bucks (and time) buying OTS made in USA components
The most amazing and common use of drones in recent wars are for testing purposes. Even in India Pakistan recent war, drones were being used just to test each other's defense systems.
Reading here and there, I realize that the US substack is at least 6, maybe 12 months behind.
The evolution is much faster and more complex than the analyses coming from the US. And consequently from Europe, where I am writing from.
Let's pretend (you in the US better than us) that we are always ahead.
Don't read anything. Written by those who are getting beaten and losing the game even more.
Money matters. But ideas matter even more.
Sometimes you have proven this to the world: Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia.
They didn't start with money, but with ideas.
Wake up
Can anyone vouch for the continuation of the development of unmanned military technology programs after the end of the battle for Ukraine? If Russia begins to produce various models and types of drones for "storage," then the very purpose of their use will be lost. Perhaps the Pentagon, with its current clumsiness and corruption, is doing America a great service by lagging behind in its military drone programs? Perhaps America should try to become a leader in this field in the civilian sector, where many things are stable and can be standardized. At least the United States has the opportunity to conduct a thorough military analysis. Wars eventually come to an end, and all strategies and weapons become obsolete, quickly becoming ineffective for future wars. The current "excellent" effectiveness of drones is due to their constant use and daily changes in tactics. I do not know what awaits the Ukrainians in the future, but the Russians will face this challenge: once the war ends, all military orders will be reduced or suspended.
The machine gun had been around a long time. The cannon even longer. Every recruit learns to use a rifle at least to some degree. A semi automatic rifle and a musket are both rifles. Muskets are useless in combat compared to assault type guns but they are still rifles. Close in air surveillance and ordinance delivery will be with us for a long time to come. It might look and function differently but it will still be a drone in the sense we use the term. And of course, they are in constant and growing use in the civilian sector.
Thanks for an interesting article.
You state that the Ukrainian Drone program is better than the Russian one, but i do not recall you mentioning the characteristics or criteria that make up the comparison or what neutral authority has made the comparison(s), determined the categories to be considered, and/or run the trials that compared types of drones and their capabilities.
Can you share this information so that it is clearer what "being better" means, in reality?
And I would like to know about the anti-drone drone programs of each side, if you have some information on that.
I think you did not follow what I wrote. Ukraine's organization is better in my view because it reaches to the top of their defense system. Organization is not the same thing as products.
Thanks for the clarification of your criterion.