The Russians have to be very skeptical about whether the US/NATO/Ukraine axis is even 'agreement capable.' The Minsk agreement was used as a subterfuge to buy time to build-up the Ukraine armed forces; no one besides the Russians had any intend to honor this agreement. Trust is going to be in very short supply all the way around. Any negotiations, as Mr. Bryen suggests, is going to have many parts to discuss. This could take years (but first the fighting has to stop).
Given that the West is not "agreement capable" my belief is that the Russians will build two bases in (what's left of) Ukraine to enforce neutrality, demilitarization and deNazification. For the sake of security, I should think these installations would be located along the Belarus and the Transnistrian border.
You say that no one seems to have any idea what the Russians want. That's not quite true--the Russians have been extremely open about exactly what their goals are for the SMO. "Negotiations" are not being sought to find out what they want, only to explore whether nor not they can be persuaded to settle for something less.
On the other hand (leaving Ukraine itself aside for a moment), what the West wants is pretty clear. They want something that allows them to "lose without losing." (Good luck with that.) But I don't think the Russians will agree to anything that can't be accompanied by some kind of verification and enforcement mechanism. The "trust" bank is broke now.
Trump's best move might be to just shut off the money and weapons spigot and tell Zelensky he's on his own if he doesn't want to negotiate. Europe is probably dumb enough to try to keep the game going awhile longer, giving Zelensky a tiny bit of time to negotiate before he collapses completely.
<<<<<Negotiations" are not being sought to find out what they want, only to explore whether nor not they can be persuaded to settle for something less<<<<<< In other words, try to find out Russia really wants. Which is something different now than proposals made two years ago and probably is still being adjusted as events on the ground give them improved opportunities to expand their *wants*.
Here’s a radical idea. How about asking the Ukrainian people what they want with a free and fair election of a new government. After all, Zelenskyy doesn’t represent anyone but himself.
After both Minsk and the Istanbul Agreements, any proposal will need to be offered by Russia, on Russian terms. Or else, Russia will continue to transact the SMO to its conclusion.
Define conclusion. Russia taking over and occupying Ukraine? Managing a hostile population while rebuilding it? Scratch that as long as Putin is in power.
Ummm....unlike previous failed arrangements, negotiations etc. there is now an American President that many people are convinced will start kicking ass if he doesn't find a solution. Whether he would or not doesn't matter. Important people, important to the process, believe he just might do it. So people important to the process now believe maybe it's time to get busy, what ever that means to them.
It doesn't matter. There will be no deal. Not only has Trump surrounded his tomfool self with neocons, anything other than total Russian capitulation will have Team D howling "Putin Puppet!"
As we saw in North Korea and Syria, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. He will fold.
I haven't noticed Trump surrounding himself with neocons - yet.
He was pretty rude about Liz and Dick last Thursday, as well as Bolton. And JD has been consistently critical of of the hawks who jumped ship from the GOP to the Dems under Killary and Sleepy Joe - who made Cheney Sr's foreign policy advisor and NATO expansionist Mrs Kagan number two at State.
But the neocons are still a powerful well-connected force, and will of course try their worst to now jump ship from the Dems back to the Trump GOP.
After all, they don't give a sh*t about domestic policy divisions, only about full spectrum dominance abroad and linked defense contracts back home, under any administration they can suborn.
In the last few days Trump has ditched Pompeo, and his new Ukraine point-man has tweeted “The senseless killing will end soon. Time is up for the warmonger profiteers.”
Can’t argue with that, ff. For all the positive moves wrt to his domestic policy, it would appear that the US’ foreign policy idiocy will continue. Creating war and unrest all over the world.
I am Russian and I will tell you what Russia wants in the former Ukraine. Since the West is incapable of negotiating, leaving at least a small piece of the former Ukraine means simply postponing the war for the future. The former Ukraine should be completely abolished and incorporated into Russia as regions. This is the only way to achieve lasting peace. Well, "sanctions" are all nonsense, the Western minority cannot isolate the largest country in the World, the West can only isolate itself from it.
I thought when the war started that the Russian stop line would be the Dnieper River. I think it's gone on too long for that now. I think Russia will take all of Ukraine except possibly a sliver on the western side as a buffer. The real shame is that the West didn't agree not to bring Ukraine into NATO. Russia has said for almost two decades that trying to bring Ukraine into NATO was a red line they would go to war to prevent.
I think it's better to not incorporate it into Russia. You really don't want to clean up the corruption there. Also, incorporating it, would mean you would be paying for rebuilding the country. I doubt the UKs will be grateful, they will just see you as a conqueror that killed all their sons/fathers. They won't realize it's mainly the West that kept the fight going.
Just make it a vassal state with a friendly government. And keep a close watch.
This option is also possible and it is operable, but it is less reliable. We are already used to rebuilding the country, we have done it many times. Besides, Ukraine is not a stranger to us, it is our ancestral land, our lost people are there. And after the change of one generation and proper indoctrination, the local population will curse the Western colonialists, not us.
We just need to not let this matter take its course, as we did at the end of the last and the beginning of this century. And it's not worth living without optimism.
Trump would be well advised to steer clear of Ukraine. Stephen correctly laid out Russia's wartime objectives. I would add that Russia also may need permanent bases in Ukraine to enforce compliance with demands for Ukrainian NATO neutrality. The US will be outraged with the outcome -- which will be dictated on the battlefield-- but is powerless to reverse. Therefore, Trump should keep his distance and not allow himself to be tarnished.
One of the many "experts on Russia", interpretation of the "wishlist" (requirements !) Russia and, a "person" (Trump?!), "capable of concluding a "good deal" to mitigate and minimize these fair ("tough") demands!? However, the "experts" are stuck in the 90s and cannot understand one "little thing": in order to start negotiating with Russia, it is necessary to fulfill its requirements! That 's all ! These will be the initial signs of America & Co's ability to negotiate. As the Russian proverb says, "Living with wolves is like howling wolves." Therefore, under the current circumstances, it is naive to expect a "miracle" from the president of the United States, whoever he is (Johnny Depp?)... Waiting for concessions and softening from Russia on Ukraine is not worth wasting time...
Good.Only , you did not explain - on what basis should the lost trust be restored ? Where is the beginning of the "amnesty" of long-term deception? Indeed , the conditions put forward by Russia are simple and tough .But this should not be misleading: supposedly, for Russia , this is the maximum from which you can reduce rates .No, this is just the minimum , from the unconditional fulfillment of which it will be possible to talk about anything and with anyone ! Personalities and governments don 't matter at all . Good health!
After Putin and the Russians have been demonized incessantly (as has Trump), we can expect the presentation of the (so far negative) characters to undergo changes similar to those that appeared in Le Moniteur Universel in March 1815, after Napoleon's escape from Elba Island:
- March 9 - "The monster has escaped from his place of exile"
- March 13 - "The tyrant is now in Lyon. Everyone was seized with fear at his appearance."
- March 19 - "Bonaparte is advancing in a forced march, but it is impossible for him to reach Paris."
- March 21 - The Emperor Napoleon is at Fontainebleau."
- March 22 - "Yesterday evening, His Majesty the Emperor made his public entrance into Paris.
I don't think the Russians care if Ukraine joins the EU. Perhaps because they know that Ukraine will not get into the EU or in the alternative, that the EU is doomed long term.
In the past Russia was willing to concede EU membership for Ukraine. I doubt that is the case now given the EU's strong anti-Russian stand and financing of the war machine.
The opposite might actually happen. The Russians might demand that Ukraine be granted EU membership on a fixed and accelerated schedule. Dangling potential membership is the main mean employed by the West to get politicians hostile to Russia elected. I think the Russians are smart enough to strip us of that.
Russia’s number 1 goal will be to eliminate any chance that Ukraine is left to rebuild itself as another NATO proxy. That will override everything else.
I thought that Trump's strategy was already well known. It was "leaked"a few months ago and again discussed in a recent post of Andrew Korybko. Basically, it seems to consist in threatening both sides if they don't stop the war. Zelensky would get no more American money if he doesn't concede. If Putin doesn't yield, Trump would deliver more and heavier weapons to Ukraine.
The problem with that approach is that the 2nd option doesn't work WELL. It was already played out in many simulations during the Biden admin -
step one: US put in conventional missiles handled and targeted by US specialists on Ukrainian soil with assistance of US satellites that attack really essential Russian installations like 1000km away.
step two: Russians reply with conventional rocket attacks on really important US installations in Poland, Romania, Denmark and Germany.
There is no longer a mutually acceptable compromise. The terms of peace will be imposed by the outcome of the war. Russia does not trust the Westerners and is certainly not going to abandon China for the sake of the Americans or Europeans. The Biden administration, with its extremely far-sighted policy, has put a definitive end to any such discussion. Europe will experience an end of an era very soon and the current political elite will find it extremely difficult to continue selling its current narrative
Like anything else it depends what offers come from the US and Europe. The current plan (coming out of the America First group_ offers absolutely nothing worthwhile to the Russians as seen from their point of view.
As an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started, having traveled to Ukraine often since 2013- and closely watching this unfold- it is my view Russia will take control of all Ukrainian territory. For the simple reason this is the only way they can assure Ukraine is demilitarized, denatoized & dewesternized. Russia will not advance any further. They will secure Ukraines western border. At that point they will entertain overtures, while they decide what to do. Referendums in more regions are almost certain to legitimize the territories with their BRICS partners.
Russia does not care about the west anymore. They don't need the west.
Their exports have global demand. Their military equipment exports are going to be massive going forward, given how they have outperformed the west's weapons. Plus they are battle proven.
Russia is going to get what it sought- security buffer zone about the size of Ukraine. Nothing is going to stop this.
I agree Russia may have the option to take over Ukraine in some manner (not necessarily with the Russian army). However, I diverge on Russia and the West. I think a case can be made that Russia would be better off with a positive relationship with the West, although achieving that with the NATO bullies is hard to see right now. Essentially, NATO needs a leadership diaper change,
This will depend on the attitude of the West. The occupation of all of Ukraine is in my opinion a burden that Russia does not want to bear. It is easier for it to keep the areas east of the Dnieper and turn the rest of Ukraine into an agricultural and sparsely populated state.
Of course this will depend on the proposals of the West. If we continue to insist on negotiating from the position of the victors, while we have lost the war, various scenarios are open.
The Russians have to be very skeptical about whether the US/NATO/Ukraine axis is even 'agreement capable.' The Minsk agreement was used as a subterfuge to buy time to build-up the Ukraine armed forces; no one besides the Russians had any intend to honor this agreement. Trust is going to be in very short supply all the way around. Any negotiations, as Mr. Bryen suggests, is going to have many parts to discuss. This could take years (but first the fighting has to stop).
Good luck!
Given that the West is not "agreement capable" my belief is that the Russians will build two bases in (what's left of) Ukraine to enforce neutrality, demilitarization and deNazification. For the sake of security, I should think these installations would be located along the Belarus and the Transnistrian border.
Well at least there is now someone Russia can negotiate with.
Indeed, Stephen Brian. I wrote this in my comment on Asia Times. But Asia Times strangely did not publish my recommendation.
You say that no one seems to have any idea what the Russians want. That's not quite true--the Russians have been extremely open about exactly what their goals are for the SMO. "Negotiations" are not being sought to find out what they want, only to explore whether nor not they can be persuaded to settle for something less.
On the other hand (leaving Ukraine itself aside for a moment), what the West wants is pretty clear. They want something that allows them to "lose without losing." (Good luck with that.) But I don't think the Russians will agree to anything that can't be accompanied by some kind of verification and enforcement mechanism. The "trust" bank is broke now.
Trump's best move might be to just shut off the money and weapons spigot and tell Zelensky he's on his own if he doesn't want to negotiate. Europe is probably dumb enough to try to keep the game going awhile longer, giving Zelensky a tiny bit of time to negotiate before he collapses completely.
<<<<<Negotiations" are not being sought to find out what they want, only to explore whether nor not they can be persuaded to settle for something less<<<<<< In other words, try to find out Russia really wants. Which is something different now than proposals made two years ago and probably is still being adjusted as events on the ground give them improved opportunities to expand their *wants*.
Trump should honor the promise made by the George H W Bush administration about NATO not moving a inch east by refusing admission to the Ukraine.
Here’s a radical idea. How about asking the Ukrainian people what they want with a free and fair election of a new government. After all, Zelenskyy doesn’t represent anyone but himself.
After both Minsk and the Istanbul Agreements, any proposal will need to be offered by Russia, on Russian terms. Or else, Russia will continue to transact the SMO to its conclusion.
"Russia will continue to transact the SMO to its conclusion"
IMO... that's the most likely scenario for how events will transpire.
Define conclusion. Russia taking over and occupying Ukraine? Managing a hostile population while rebuilding it? Scratch that as long as Putin is in power.
What population? there is only women, kids and old people left. The rest is either dead or lives abroad.
Ummm....unlike previous failed arrangements, negotiations etc. there is now an American President that many people are convinced will start kicking ass if he doesn't find a solution. Whether he would or not doesn't matter. Important people, important to the process, believe he just might do it. So people important to the process now believe maybe it's time to get busy, what ever that means to them.
It doesn't matter. There will be no deal. Not only has Trump surrounded his tomfool self with neocons, anything other than total Russian capitulation will have Team D howling "Putin Puppet!"
As we saw in North Korea and Syria, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. He will fold.
I haven't noticed Trump surrounding himself with neocons - yet.
He was pretty rude about Liz and Dick last Thursday, as well as Bolton. And JD has been consistently critical of of the hawks who jumped ship from the GOP to the Dems under Killary and Sleepy Joe - who made Cheney Sr's foreign policy advisor and NATO expansionist Mrs Kagan number two at State.
But the neocons are still a powerful well-connected force, and will of course try their worst to now jump ship from the Dems back to the Trump GOP.
After all, they don't give a sh*t about domestic policy divisions, only about full spectrum dominance abroad and linked defense contracts back home, under any administration they can suborn.
Pompeo, Cotton and Brian Hook all qualify as neocons,m and Trump has had them around him in recent days.
Bingo Finster
In the last few days Trump has ditched Pompeo, and his new Ukraine point-man has tweeted “The senseless killing will end soon. Time is up for the warmonger profiteers.”
I hope Elon has good security.
I hope to God that this comes to pass, hut we've gotten our hopes up in vain before.
so J D Vance, Tulsi, JFK Jr , Musk are now "neocons"?
Pompeo, Cotton and Brian whaisface (to give the first three names.to come.to mind) are.
Can’t argue with that, ff. For all the positive moves wrt to his domestic policy, it would appear that the US’ foreign policy idiocy will continue. Creating war and unrest all over the world.
I am Russian and I will tell you what Russia wants in the former Ukraine. Since the West is incapable of negotiating, leaving at least a small piece of the former Ukraine means simply postponing the war for the future. The former Ukraine should be completely abolished and incorporated into Russia as regions. This is the only way to achieve lasting peace. Well, "sanctions" are all nonsense, the Western minority cannot isolate the largest country in the World, the West can only isolate itself from it.
I thought when the war started that the Russian stop line would be the Dnieper River. I think it's gone on too long for that now. I think Russia will take all of Ukraine except possibly a sliver on the western side as a buffer. The real shame is that the West didn't agree not to bring Ukraine into NATO. Russia has said for almost two decades that trying to bring Ukraine into NATO was a red line they would go to war to prevent.
I think it's better to not incorporate it into Russia. You really don't want to clean up the corruption there. Also, incorporating it, would mean you would be paying for rebuilding the country. I doubt the UKs will be grateful, they will just see you as a conqueror that killed all their sons/fathers. They won't realize it's mainly the West that kept the fight going.
Just make it a vassal state with a friendly government. And keep a close watch.
This option is also possible and it is operable, but it is less reliable. We are already used to rebuilding the country, we have done it many times. Besides, Ukraine is not a stranger to us, it is our ancestral land, our lost people are there. And after the change of one generation and proper indoctrination, the local population will curse the Western colonialists, not us.
I admire your optimism !
We just need to not let this matter take its course, as we did at the end of the last and the beginning of this century. And it's not worth living without optimism.
As an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started- it is my view that it is the west the soon to be former Ukrainians will come to hate.
The simple fact is the "west" used Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia and used Ukrainians as cannon fodder for the benefit of the west.
At no point did the western leaders care about the people of Ukraine.
Now Ukrainians begin to understand this.
Russia offers Ukrainians a far better future than the west does.
It is a pity that not all Ukrainians understand this yet.
Trump would be well advised to steer clear of Ukraine. Stephen correctly laid out Russia's wartime objectives. I would add that Russia also may need permanent bases in Ukraine to enforce compliance with demands for Ukrainian NATO neutrality. The US will be outraged with the outcome -- which will be dictated on the battlefield-- but is powerless to reverse. Therefore, Trump should keep his distance and not allow himself to be tarnished.
That’s smart. Trump should stay out of that nest of anacondas until there is a path whose end is NOT political disaster.
One of the many "experts on Russia", interpretation of the "wishlist" (requirements !) Russia and, a "person" (Trump?!), "capable of concluding a "good deal" to mitigate and minimize these fair ("tough") demands!? However, the "experts" are stuck in the 90s and cannot understand one "little thing": in order to start negotiating with Russia, it is necessary to fulfill its requirements! That 's all ! These will be the initial signs of America & Co's ability to negotiate. As the Russian proverb says, "Living with wolves is like howling wolves." Therefore, under the current circumstances, it is naive to expect a "miracle" from the president of the United States, whoever he is (Johnny Depp?)... Waiting for concessions and softening from Russia on Ukraine is not worth wasting time...
I don't interpret. I explain. Have a nice day.
Good.Only , you did not explain - on what basis should the lost trust be restored ? Where is the beginning of the "amnesty" of long-term deception? Indeed , the conditions put forward by Russia are simple and tough .But this should not be misleading: supposedly, for Russia , this is the maximum from which you can reduce rates .No, this is just the minimum , from the unconditional fulfillment of which it will be possible to talk about anything and with anyone ! Personalities and governments don 't matter at all . Good health!
https://johnhelmer.org/westward-ho-hum-the-general-staffs-map-and-president-putins-map-are-different/
We live in a tragicomic world...
After Putin and the Russians have been demonized incessantly (as has Trump), we can expect the presentation of the (so far negative) characters to undergo changes similar to those that appeared in Le Moniteur Universel in March 1815, after Napoleon's escape from Elba Island:
- March 9 - "The monster has escaped from his place of exile"
- March 13 - "The tyrant is now in Lyon. Everyone was seized with fear at his appearance."
- March 19 - "Bonaparte is advancing in a forced march, but it is impossible for him to reach Paris."
- March 21 - The Emperor Napoleon is at Fontainebleau."
- March 22 - "Yesterday evening, His Majesty the Emperor made his public entrance into Paris.
Nothing can surpass the joy of everyone."
Does it matter what Trump does? Does the USA have any agency in this conflict?
Yes, US $$$ is the glue holding Kiev regime together, and US/NATO weapons supplies are the reason fighting drags out over many years
No, the US has no say in the outcome. Unless, of course, the US enters the field of combat... which is highly unlikely.
I don't think the Russians care if Ukraine joins the EU. Perhaps because they know that Ukraine will not get into the EU or in the alternative, that the EU is doomed long term.
In the past Russia was willing to concede EU membership for Ukraine. I doubt that is the case now given the EU's strong anti-Russian stand and financing of the war machine.
Yes. It should be noted that the EU has been making noises about the creation of some kind of unified EU military presence.
The opposite might actually happen. The Russians might demand that Ukraine be granted EU membership on a fixed and accelerated schedule. Dangling potential membership is the main mean employed by the West to get politicians hostile to Russia elected. I think the Russians are smart enough to strip us of that.
Russia’s number 1 goal will be to eliminate any chance that Ukraine is left to rebuild itself as another NATO proxy. That will override everything else.
I thought that Trump's strategy was already well known. It was "leaked"a few months ago and again discussed in a recent post of Andrew Korybko. Basically, it seems to consist in threatening both sides if they don't stop the war. Zelensky would get no more American money if he doesn't concede. If Putin doesn't yield, Trump would deliver more and heavier weapons to Ukraine.
???
Not sure that threatening Russia is a wise path—ask a parent about threats.
The problem with that approach is that the 2nd option doesn't work WELL. It was already played out in many simulations during the Biden admin -
step one: US put in conventional missiles handled and targeted by US specialists on Ukrainian soil with assistance of US satellites that attack really essential Russian installations like 1000km away.
step two: Russians reply with conventional rocket attacks on really important US installations in Poland, Romania, Denmark and Germany.
Then what?
I agree. I hope that Trump will opt in favor of another plan - and a better one at that.
The Aegis Ashore installations in Poland & Romania are on the table.
not sure they are... although the Russians want a negotiation over nuclear weapons
You got it. Russia knows better than to try and deal with those inf your face, hot button issues.. Go after the big fish that are existential instead.
There is no longer a mutually acceptable compromise. The terms of peace will be imposed by the outcome of the war. Russia does not trust the Westerners and is certainly not going to abandon China for the sake of the Americans or Europeans. The Biden administration, with its extremely far-sighted policy, has put a definitive end to any such discussion. Europe will experience an end of an era very soon and the current political elite will find it extremely difficult to continue selling its current narrative
Like anything else it depends what offers come from the US and Europe. The current plan (coming out of the America First group_ offers absolutely nothing worthwhile to the Russians as seen from their point of view.
As an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started, having traveled to Ukraine often since 2013- and closely watching this unfold- it is my view Russia will take control of all Ukrainian territory. For the simple reason this is the only way they can assure Ukraine is demilitarized, denatoized & dewesternized. Russia will not advance any further. They will secure Ukraines western border. At that point they will entertain overtures, while they decide what to do. Referendums in more regions are almost certain to legitimize the territories with their BRICS partners.
Russia does not care about the west anymore. They don't need the west.
Their exports have global demand. Their military equipment exports are going to be massive going forward, given how they have outperformed the west's weapons. Plus they are battle proven.
Russia is going to get what it sought- security buffer zone about the size of Ukraine. Nothing is going to stop this.
I agree Russia may have the option to take over Ukraine in some manner (not necessarily with the Russian army). However, I diverge on Russia and the West. I think a case can be made that Russia would be better off with a positive relationship with the West, although achieving that with the NATO bullies is hard to see right now. Essentially, NATO needs a leadership diaper change,
This will depend on the attitude of the West. The occupation of all of Ukraine is in my opinion a burden that Russia does not want to bear. It is easier for it to keep the areas east of the Dnieper and turn the rest of Ukraine into an agricultural and sparsely populated state.
Of course this will depend on the proposals of the West. If we continue to insist on negotiating from the position of the victors, while we have lost the war, various scenarios are open.