The USA has plenty of guns among the public, that’s for sure. But Americans (and much of the western world) are living under a much more powerful force: the government’s ability to manufacture consent.
The US government has full spectrum dominance in the information space. That space is 95% owned by just a few corporate mega-Inc’s with close ties to the government. Because mass communications is always regulated AND fed by government, it’s essentially become a single entity. The media dutifully tells the public what the government wants them to hear while revolving doors between the corporate boardrooms and US three-letter agencies keep the message precisely in line.
There is no alternative source of mass communication in the USA. There is no mass media that takes even a deeply investigative stance towards government, let alone an adversarial one. It’s all just a messaging system for the government.
Americans, like most everyone else, can be led by the nose when a supreme authority seeks to convince them. Unfortunately, America’s supreme authority has become akin to a totalitarian state. It’s cleverly disguised mind you behind boasts about freedom of speech and such. Nevertheless, it has to be said that the melding of America’s corporate media power with the government is textbook Fascism.
Re.: "akin to a totalitarian state." Not "akin" but bona fide. Many of us, who lived through the collapse of the USSR, were having déjà vu here the last 3 years; the geriatric leader mumbling from the podium (Brezhnev), the US Politburo jumping every 5 minutes in standing ovations, clapping like trained seals to whatever nonsense he's saying (the State of the Union), an eery reminder of the XXIV Forum of the Communist Party, and the Truth Ministry (the disinformation bureau/whatever) under the watchful Psaki's eye/leadership. Not mentioning the centralization of everything; food/news/cloth/books selling. My personal "favorite" was when after posting a thought on Instagram about Gaza, Maha Dakhil, famous CAA co-director, was demoted from her post and... drumrolls... was sent for "reforming" to the Jewish elders and she repented publicly and "saw the light." Just like in the USSR, the "wrong-thinkers" were forced to publicly deny their wrong "views" and repent. And Bill Ackman demanded the names of students of Harvard, protesting Israeli atrocities in Gaza, to ensure that they're permanently unemployed. Don't forget how Tucker Carlson was unsure if he would be even let back home after interviewing Putin - just like some Soviet author who said something "wrong" in France and he was stripped of his Soviet citizenship and denied entry to the USSR...
I have already watched this show, they can keep popcorn :-)
I have nothing like your experience to judge by, but everything you say rings true. And I can see how from your perspective America's totalitarianism looks absolutely real and I don't disagree with you. I used 'akin' as a rhetorical softening of my message for those who might object to my description.
That said, America has created a unusual - one might even say cunning - flavour of totalitarianism. There is still a lot of freedom in America around personal and social matters. Where things change for the worse is around political freedoms. There, the moneyed and powerful elite have it all sewn up. In the past they hid it more carefully, but now its fully out in the open. There is no difference between the US government and corporate America. It's just one great big entity driven by law-of-the-jungle capitalism utilizing whatever tools it wants to get its way.
Agreed. America developed its own variety of some sophisticatedly-woke/medically draconian type of totalitarianism. Marx was right, “history repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce," given America's leading itself/the world in the totalitarian woke/pronounces/transgender/DEI farce. Not sure about what "lot of freedom in America around personal and social matters" that we retained the last 4 years?Thousands lost their careers/MLs/reputations/livelihoods to the "safe & effective" mantra pushed from above, when even law prof Dershowitz advocated for forceful vaccination of the anti-vax infidels. Well, it wasn't as bad in the US, as it was in the USSR, when a patient with TB/STD missed their clinic appointment, a public notice of their diagnosis would be put their doors for their neighbors to see, but who knows, in the US, it might be getting this way, if this "total vaccination" campaign were to last a bit longer. In my city, they fired the firefighters even after the peak of this insanity went down.
A very draconian capitalism exists in America at the level of a mom-and-pop type businesses, while there is mega corporation racket and collusion, where real capitalism must be. As for our so-called "powerful elite," they are enjoying pure Communism. Communism's Credo is "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." Our elites got everything "according to their needs," but they don't have abilities to offer to society.
The good thing about the current times is that the masks have dropped, they can't/don't bother pretending anymore, and more and more Americans see what's going on, but still it was terrifying to see how many still voted for Kamala.
Yes indeed, the masks have slipped quite a bit. I think Elon Musk is largely the cause of that, as he is outspoken, independent and unabashed in his elitism. The other CEO's grew up in corporate America, and learned their lessons well. They're not so obvious about their intricately-woven role with government. But it's all for show of course. If anything the others are even more in the government's pocket than Musk.
I'm not sure how many or how quickly Americans will figure all this out, but if it happens at all I suspect it will be a slow process. To be sure there are many Americans who see the truth. But I suspect they're very much in the minority at present. With the American government's multi-dimensional lock on information, alternative messages are swimming against a very strong tide.
True. Musk, same as I, are "not from here," even if we lived on this continent for a long time, so it's easier for us to spot a regime in the making, vs. someone local, boiling like a frog, clueless till too late.
Indeed, Americans are slow on figuring things out, and the deliberately low educational standards play the role, plus the inbred exceptionalism. I work/friends with highly educated Americans, still the scope/foresight are unexpectedly low. Voting for Trump cost me some friendships, oh well :-)
I talk to Uber drivers when on business trips, and see most of them are caught up on what's going on. I had to wait for Uber in LA in Dec for 30 min, and Uber guy told me Uber now claims 60% of their earnings (while they use own car, insurance/amortization, etc.), many drivers quit. And for trip to my hotel, Uber sent me a real taxi (Uber bankrupted taxi businesses with its cheap fare first, and now Uber "rehires" taxi for "emergencies.) 60% of salary claimed by an employer beats the USSR, beats the EU socialism (even Scandinavian), especially when no perks like free health care, education, subsidized child care, lots of vacation, holidays time, mat, sick leave, etc., even exist in the US for businesses.
Chernenko was too old/too short-termed to see his inclinations, but Brezhnev was on par with Biden. You probably didn't hear his musings about how when he was sent to help "kolkhozniks" with the harvest, he'd deliver 10 boxes of produce to the state, but keep 1 box for himself, just like Biden's "10% for a big guy" :-)
That is true, however… whatever mind-control America may have over its own citizens - exogenous forces exist.
Simply because a society sings off the same hymnal - and I don’t see any strong consensus vis a vis Ukraine - doesn’t mean that society has the strength to impose its will on the outside world.
Reading the tea leaves - Trump’s threats of more tariffs are *intentionally* weak. No militaristic jargon whatsoever.
Quite reasonably, Trump *seems* very focused on a handful of domestic issues that deeply need fixing.
I am of the opinion that everything a politician says publicly is meant for public consumption and is not necessarily part of his set of assumptions.
If he really believes this though, the US is in a lot of hurt. It would imply that their information gathering is seriously flawed.
If he does not believe it, but only pretends to do so, it might be a ploy to use this as a reason to abandon the Ukraine project later on when the "true" numbers are exposed and he will have ammo against the intelligence agencies.
We go through this over and over again. There is no master plan, no eleven dimensional chess here. If Trump wanted ammo to use on the spooks, he already has that.
But maybe he just bluffs, Douglas Macgregor just posted on X that Trump has called a halt to all military aid to Ukraine for a complete audit and investigation.
Trump might extend this audit and get out of Ukraine under the "audit results."
Western politicians are incapable of speaking frankly. This is a result of party politics and the deep fear politicians have of saying something that will negatively affect the polls. There’s no advantage to speaking the truth, because the truth always has at least two sides to it. And that doesn’t lend itself to a three second sound bite.
Doubt that " the truth always has at least two sides to it." Usually, if something requires too elaborate an explanation, and a "massaging effort," it's most likely not the truth. Most of the truths, especially the cardinal ones, are pretty straightforward.
What you're describing is dogma, not the truth. Dogma, be it political, religious or social, doesn't allow for alternative views. The truth on the other hand will always self-referentially check its beliefs against alternatives, because that's the only way to be sure you're right.
But perhaps I'm not seeing it clearly. Can you give me an example of a non-trivial absolute truth, one that has a single dimension with no other viewpoint possible.
The problem is that in politics words have consequences unless you have an arrangement with the other side. Now, you might say secretly to the other side, "Hey we are going to say this, just ignore it - its for public consumption." I do not think this is the case however. Trump is shooting from the lip and I do not think he is aware of the consequences of what he is saying. Just my feeling on this.
Out of all the propaganda coming out of “the west” the economic falsehoods are the most baffling because they are the ones most easily disproven.
At the macro level you simply cannot fake prosperity. There are simply too many data points that can debunk any claim of false affluence. Likewise… the reverse is also true.
The Russian economy is going gang busters and, as you correctly point out, their problem is too few workers.
Just the raw natural abundance of Russia guarantees a baseline of wealth with not much effort. Food, energy , coal, natural gas, oil, minerals, metals of all kinds.
As long as Russia isn’t actively sabotaging itself - it’s going to have a pretty decent standard of living. Too many American politicians looked at the 1990’s as a baseline reality when, in fact, it was an artificial poverty brought on by mass theft and anarchy.
My wife went shopping yesterday (cortez, colorado); Local Krogers 1doz eggs/$10. We buy our eggs from a local farmer for half. In Durango, her favorite store had no eggs at all. Russia seems to be doing better.
Yikes, those are expensive eggs, even by comparison to Canada!
Anecdotal videos I’ve seen from Russia show grocery shelves fully stocked and prices that seem very reasonable for most goods. While those videos could be staged, there’s nothing to stop western media from going and checking themselves. But they don’t. That suggests that far from Russians rioting over lack of food, they’re doing fine in that department.
Affordable food, shelter, clothing and general security are the essentials for any population. Russia appears to be providing all of those things to its people.
I believe you're right on that point, and from what I can tell Russians are doing fine in the other areas that are essential to a civilization: clothing, shelter and general security for the humans that make up the society. I'm definitely not saying that everything is perfect in Russia, I'm sure there are many problems there as well. But the basics of human existence in a society appear to be well taken care of. Contrast that with, say, the USA where there are hundreds of thousands of people without shelter and they're not even trying to fix the problem.
As near as I can tell, since Mr. Putin became president of Russia, his fundamental goal was to ensure that all Russians have access to those basics. He did not put the cart before the horse. Instead he ensured that the Russia is providing the essentials for any successful civilization, and can now move on to other goals.
Yeah, there is a number of issues in Russia but things got much better than dysfunctional chaos of the 90s (Russia was basically a fucked up Wild West these days).
And eggshell, especially of Costco's so-called "organic eggs" is so thin, sometimes you can break it with a finger push. I don't recall the eggshell ever being so breakable.
I agree with this article completely. Russia can damage Europe much more than NATO, other than directly fighting the Russians, can damage Russia.
The question is, based on purchasing power parity, why Russia has moved from the 12th largest economy in 2021 to the 4th in 2024. And this is a country under the most heavy sanctions regime that has been imposed.
Ironically, the war has freed up the Russian economy from the constraints it was suffering prior to it. For instance, many Russian firms were locked into partnerships with Western firms which meant that a lot of money made in Russia was repatriated abroad, especially to Europe. The Western firms left Russia during the war but could not take their factories, products and workers with them. These were scooped up by Russians and the factories produce 'Western' products under Russian names. Furthermore, all the extra money not being repatriated to the West now sloshing around in the economy have been reinvested into infrastructure which makes Russian future productivity more efficient. Europe on the other hand has lost an income stream that would be most useful right now.
The point is that while Russia has moved to a 'War Economy' it is not a full War Economy. Russia still produces many consumer products for both its own and foreign consumers, not to count raw materials. While the West has tried, and failed to an extent, to ween itself off Russia, the Global South has no compunction to join this self-destructive activity. For instance India, which produces little domestic oil, yet since 2022 they have become a net exporter to oil - to Europe of all places at inflated prices. The Europeans know that it is Russian oil, but because India is selling it then it is not Russian oil in their eyes. Or Malaysia which mixes its own oil with Russian crude - its not 'Russian' oil. And this does not take into account all the other stuff Russia provides that the world needs.
Does the Russian econmy have problems - yes, but who does not. But these problems are manageable and Putin has a good economic team behind him managing this.
Unfortunately Trump has been given bad intelligence, from by the way the very sources who have an interest in continuing the war (see my comments on the last article which dealt with barriers with negotiations). This means he has a false impression of reality. Putin will walk away from negotiations if Trump thinks he has the whip hand, and as the Ukrainian situation worsens Trump will be drawn into a war - doing the same thing instinctually that Biden did deliberately - a war the West cannot reverse without joining the fighting on the ground, which in turns leads to nuclear war which no one wins.
My thoughts on the Russian economy are much the same as yours. The crippling sanctions placed on Russia seem to be harming everyone but Russia!
Some fun facts…
As soon as the sanctions were enacted, the Kremlin prohibited capital leaving the country. This did two things. It stopped foreign firms from extracting revenue from Russia, and it forced Russians with capital to invest to use it in their own country.
Some western firms abandoned their businesses in Russia entirely. For example, Shell Oil took a $10 billion write off of their investment! It’s certain that the total of all such abandoned capital runs into the tens of billions, and Russians snapped it up for a song.
Aviation. When the sanctions hit, there approximately 460 airliners in Russia leased from western firms. All those airliners are still working, but doing it for free. Lease payments ( and they are substantial for airliners) are gone. Russia acquired a huge fleet of aircraft for literally nothing. To be sure, the sanctions included restrictions on parts and service for those airliners, but there are often sources in friendly countries to help. Moreover, when you paid nothing for the airliner, cannibalizing one or two for parts is a non-issue.
It wasn't Russia that prohibited capital leaving - the sanctions and turning of SWIFT made it impossible to transfer that money.
Where payment was/is due the Russians opened escrow accounts in the name of the Western receiver. Therefore, the use of leased planes is not free - the payments are done. Many in the West where talking about "Russia having stolen Western airplanes" - but they supposedly never have seen a leasing contract. Under which the user pays money and the lessor provides the plane without hindering it's use. Usually, the business model of lessors doesn't contain the idea of return before deadline. But let's assume they may request the return under some force majeure - in this case a hefty price tag will be attached. And as long as the contractual penalty isn't paid [well, they can't pay for the very same reasons] the aviation company will not give the planes back. This seems proper legal behavior. OFC, I haven't seen the leasing agreements in question.
BTW, there are a lot of juridical procedures. The Lessors claimed "total loss" with their insurances. When the insurance agreed to such claim, it pays and become owner of the plane - substituting the lessor in the leasing agreement with the Russian company, still trying to sell it and get the money back. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/dae-reaches-319m-in-cumulative-settlements-for-stranded-aircraft/
Everybody who went recently to Moscow said it's filled now with China-made cars vs. the EU made cars, as used to. The EU's stupidly lost them the market
I wouldn't be so sure - re.:airliners, there are too many implications on top of just "cannibalizing one or two parts" or getting them via murky sources, there are insurance/liability implications, etc., And yeah, it's possible to get around, but still.
Commercial aviation is something I'm familiar with. Without going into a huge explanation of all the ins and outs, I'll just say that airlines exchange parts between aircraft frequently. Depending on the part needed the fix can be very easy. It's a world-wide accepted practice is what I'm saying.
Russia doesn't need to get its Airbus or Boeing parts from shady sources. They can just ask a friendly country to order the part from the manufacturer, ostensibly for their own fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Then that part is quietly sent on to Russia. Moreover, Russia has its own aircraft industry building modern jets. If a critical part is needed they can make most of them if necessary.
Commercial aviation aspects I don't know much about, but I know an aerospace engineer (worked for Boeing, Airbus, etc. in the US, and an aerospace company in Russia way back), so per him, it's a bad situation, they can't get parts and support. Maybe something changed. Russia traditionally has strong aerospace industry base, but they also for years relied on Western aircraft, now reverted back to self-reliance.
That person isn't speaking out of current knowledge. He's simply repeating something he heard that he believes to be true. That puts his statement into the category of, "Russia is running out of soldiers and missiles!" While it could be true, we do not see evidence for it.
I re-asked and he is adamant that the info is current, and it's still problematic, and the airlines from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc. are being used, and that Boeings and Airbuses which Russia didn't return from leases, are used internally, but if something gets broken, it's a problem. That currently Russia doesn't have enough planes to fulfill domestic needs
Russia haven't moved up from 12th to 4th in economic size(PPP), but from 6th to 4th, and it was expected back then.
The "primary payments on balance of payments", which you claim Russia has freed up a lot of money, has been improved by around 20 billion usd according to CBR.
The Russian economy haven't moved into a state of "war economy" - there's a consumer boom and a construction boom. For now the Russians doesn't feel the war, unless they want to.
Finally, does Russia have economic problems that it can't manage? Main priority in Kremlin is demographics. Which modern society have yet solved that problem? That's a problem killing nationhood.
Thank you Anders but you misread some of what I have said.
Severasl sources (one being the IMF) in the past have said 12th place for Rissian economy to 4th (and two sources I know and forgot to add say 5th). It depends on the sources.
I did clarify that it was not a complete war economy as Putin had made sure that there was a healthy consumer economy. You are just reiterating my point and making it deeper. Also you emphasis my point on the consumer and construction boom (infratstructure) partly financed by non-repatriated funds. I might add that there has also been an massive increase in business start-ups. From an economics point of view, many countries in the OECD like to have the issues that Russia faces.
Just a thought to clarify. By War Economy Russia, in fighting an attritional war, has vastly increased its production of military equipment. However, going back to Putin's economic team, they have been careful to balance guns against butter.
Russian doesn't feel the war - economically, of course. That's why it's not an war economy.
The reason for the construction boom is preferential loans given to large families, veterans etc. Something Nabiuliana(head of CBR), complains about, cause it has a huge effect on inflation.
From what I read/listened to, Putin's preparing the next political cadre - the military from SMO, who distinguished themselves through brains/courage are given the fast-track to the political/economic leadership via extensive/intense training.
The veterans are rewarded, no doubt about that, and the obvious question is,if it's a good idea. Courage and skills in warfare, doesn't necessarily make you a good administrator in civil live. But it tells about the importance of this war and its coming legacy in Russian society - a new "great patriotic war", as WWII is called in Russia.
There's at least two aspects to Russia's intention to elevate veterans to responsible positions. The first is the principle of rewarding those who contribute the most to society. If you're willing to lay down your life for your society, that's a big deal and rewarding it only makes sense.
The second aspect is that veterans have trained in a highly structured organization - the army, navy or air force. Deploying a military organization requires an enormous level of management. Exposure to, or working with that degree of management, can rub off on people who are later tasked with managing something in civilian life. Their experience isn't always going to be applicable to civilian undertakings. But in the broader sense of an organization needing a level of discipline, established procedures and so forth, people with exposure to military life do have skills that can translate to other organizations.
Usually the best guideline for hiring people, is getting the best qualified for the job. It might be a veteran, but not necessarily.
I think, that the best reward would housing, medicare, education if needed and wanted, of course make sure they have a respectable life economically and make sure they are honored(parades, monuments etc.)
Yes, the war often demands/awards the very skills not tolerated during civil life. Some heroic deeds are a result of arrogant subordination. Some military won't be unable to fit/settle down, but most administrative skills can be learned, while courage, honor , and the ability to sacrifice for something bigger than yourself, are mostly intrinsic.
Completely agree - but in both cases both men think they are indeed in control, until events prove otherwise. The only one in control at present, baring adverse events, is Putin.
What Trump and team are saying is laughable. They better figure out that Russia holds all the cards real quick if they want to come out looking better than total defeat. Russia won’t settle for anything less than a comprehensive treaty settling all security issues permanently, and if that isn’t on the table they will co time to destroy Ukraine until there is no state left to defend. Russia has so far refrained from counter-sanctions. That’s not far away now as Europe has almost completely cut ties. What happens when they stop selling titanium and uranium on open markets? Keep pushing and we’re going to see just how weak the global economy actually is.
I think we have to take note that Mr. Trump has surrounded himself with advisors who want to end the war and are willing (at least they were) to meet Russia half way. Now the tune is changed, and it is largely based on falsified intelligence reports. Remember Trump has been getting intel briefings since he was elected in November. They have worked him rather successfully, it seems to me. Whether he can escape the jaws of disinformation and not fall into the fake psywar trap remains to be seen, but his latest remarks were, to say the least, off-putting.
One would think that at least someone in the Trump orbit--Barron maybe or Vance--reads Stephen's columns or hears guests on Judge Napolitano's podcasts or the Duran. So pathetic.
The USSR made a mistake of allowing JFK save his face by keeping quiet (as promised,) that the US was forced to remove its nukes from Turkey (in exchange for the USSR removing from Cuba.) This constant coddling the US public, poorly educated as is, mostly not well travelled, leaves the public eagerly awaiting/demanding the smoke & mirrors shows, which are hard to watch or stomach. It's an achievement on Trump's part to even to say that, "we're in deep shit," but immediately proceed with his off the wall numbers & threatening sanctions. AGAIN?!
Here we go again. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. For this reason, there will be no deal and the United States will only continue to escalate.
Yep, that's why I voted against Trump in 2020, while my Republican friends were saying, "don't listen to what he says, watch what he does." But I wasn't seeing what is it exactly that he "does." I've seen Trump throwing money hand over fist to minuscular biotechs, I knew (professionally) won't be able to deliver.
I didn't vote at all in 2016, I voted against Trump in 2020, but I wasn't going to waste my vote in 2024 by voting for Kamala by "default," so I voted for Trump. The cats in my state are democratically inclined.
Someone noted on the interwebs that President Trump overstated USSR deaths in WWII as well as in the SMO ... and by about the same ratio. Maybe this was a wink of President Trump's eye to let the Russian's know that he understands the real position?
Let's not forget that President Trump's real enemies (and America's real enemies) are in the US bureaucracy, media, academia, legal system -- all waiting for the chance to pounce on him by claiming that he is a "Putin stooge". They have done it before (two impeachments!), they will do it again ... if he gives them half a chance. Much of President Trump's words are aimed at that internal enemy, and fortunately the Russians seem to recognize this, which is why they don't react.
It is not clear that the US needs to be involved in any future negotiations over the Ukraine. That is really between the Euros and Russia. If there are negotiations, President Trump has more carrots than sticks for the Russians -- such as cutting off aid to Zelensky, returning the funds stolen from Russia, lifting sanctions, returning NATO to a defensive alliance ... or pulling the US out of NATO. But President Trump needs to watch his back, because of all those Usual Suspects in the US longing to bring him down.
I've heard from few people I know that Trump is a "Putin stooge, " but when you ask them to elaborate on it, they just can't. They are so used to repeat slogans du jour, they can't even formulate own thoughts by now.
I agree with your analysis of the Russian situation.
But I believe that Putin made an awful decision at the beginning of the war. He should have planned a quick, decisive win, interdicting everything entering Ukraine, destroying all military installations, and disrupting utilities and transportation. The limited approach has been costly for Russia.
Putin went in Feb 2022 with what - 70,000-150,000 Russian troops, to prove his point of forcing Ukraine into proper negotiations, and preempting Kyiv/NATO launch on Donbas. Obviously, the above were not true "occupational troops" needed to hold such substantial territories, as it wasn't Putin's goal at all, hence Russians left to prevent the unneeded losses. No "Double Secret Master Strategy" - just common sense and contingency approach,
The failures at Krasny Liman and abandonment of Kherson were after negotiations failed. There was no plan B once negotiations failed. That was the problem and has been the problem throughout the war is that Russia expects its enemies to react a certain way and then is caught flatfooted when they don't.
I believe the goal should be to win a war decisively, not quickly. Quick victories rarely deal with all the factors that created the war in the first place.
Take the US invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) as examples. The Americans declared ‘mission accomplished’ in a matter of months. But lower tempo hostilities never stopped because the indigenous forces and the political interests behind them never capitulated. America eventually had to pull out of Afghanistan in disarray 20 years later. So much for the quick, decisive victory.
I think it was Sun Tzu who said that the supreme art of war is to defeat your enemy with little or no fighting. That was Russia’s plan at the start. Even though that tactic/strategy was unsuccessful early on, it can still be a good plan for Russia in the ongoing war. Regardless of the speed with which the war progresses, the ultimate goal is to have the enemy capitulate to your demands. If that can be accomplished with less destruction and fewer people dying, that’s a good thing according to Sun Tzu.
"Quick victories rarely deal with all the factors that created the war in the first place."
A quick victory has nothing to do with the planning for war.
"If that can be accomplished with less destruction and fewer people dying, that’s a good thing according to Sun Tzu."
But there has been a lot of death and destruction. Much of the death and destruction in Russia could have been avoided if Russia had planned a quick, decisive war.
Everyone is quick to quote Sun Tzu, a Chinese war philosopher who lived 2500 years ago. Things are a little different now.
The means of making war has changed greatly, but the purpose of waging war hasn't changed at all. The goal is to make the enemy capitulate to all your demands. If that possibility exists, then there's likely to be more than one way to bring it about. Sun Tzu points out that using a path to capitulation that creates the least destruction and loss of life is the best way to go. I don't believe that maxim has changed despite the passage of time.
"This is a war of attrition!" is just retcon for Russia supporters. Simialrly with talk about a mythical "Russian way of war" that involves a lot of waffling and not actually winning.
They forget Bagration, Operation Uranus, August Storm, the Brusilov Offensive, and many other examples from Russian history.
Russia used the best strategy it could in the circumstances. They did in fact go for a quick, decisive win. And they almost had it with the Istanbul treaty. But then Washington told them to go to war.
Russia’s tactic to begin with was a feint. They made lightning attacks on four fronts and had considerable success. But there was no way Russia had the resources to continue to hold and expand the territory they conquered. Russia knew this all along. Their hope was to shock Kiev into capitulation by seemingly making an overwhelming attack on multiple fronts.
As I said, it almost worked. If it had been successful hundreds of thousands more people would be alive today on both sides. So it was totally a tactic worth trying.
Following the failure of Istanbul, Russia retreated and geared up for a war in earnest. I believe their army is twice as large now, and it appears to have no shortages of crucial supplies. It’s a grinding war but even so Russia is going slow. They could be causing far, far more destruction than they are presently. The measured pace may be designed to show Ukraine the inevitable outcome, while giving it time to capitulate before many more people die.
It was and still is impossible for Russia to interdict all western military aid going to Ukraine. Ukraine shares long borders with at four NATO countries. Obviously supplies will get through regardless of what Russia does via conventional means.
Who says, that the offensive against Kiev wasn't a ski maneuver? Look at the number of soldiers Russia used to invade the whole of northern Ukraine - around a 100.000. Look at how quickly they retreated, and look at what happened in the southern Ukraine - Russian occupied 30.000 km2 within a month.
Kremlin likes this war of attrition, cause it empty the storage of NATO, and Kremlin choosed the right time to pick up a fight - just after the COVID-19, when supply chain was a mess in the West.
There are different ways to interpret Trump's rhetoric, each different and not mutually exclusive.
The first and basic one is to consider that Trump has a special reation with the truth. That's his way of thinking and expressing himself and there's nothing to do about it but hoping he will not err too far from reality.
The second is that it's part of his tactics. The crazy stuff is there to destablize and create a space through which he can extract concessions. That implies he knows exactly how to navigate the web of lies and the effects it can have on the different actors of the play.
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The third one is that the difference between the pre presidential Trump that sounded closer to reality than the presidential one we're hearing now, is that the information received by the president is skewed. This is the most frightening of all, it would mean that what arrives on the president's desk has been filtered to such an extent that it mirrors the the official war narrative. Like being blinded by it's own propaganda. It's quite unlikely that a departing Biden admin would have the time to create such an information filter just for Trump, it would be too easy to notice and correct. So most likely this would be a leftover from Biden's time. Which could also explain Biden's stubbornness. Willingly or not the biden admin would have locked itself into a fantasy world, most likely by shutting down (a little at first and more and more as war endured) dissenting voices whose analysis threatened the unity "required" in times of war.
We have to hope that it's mostly the second explanation that drives president Trump's turnaround. For if it is not, the likelihood of dramatic developments increases exponentially.
My assumption is that he and is security advisors are being fed bad stuff from the intel community. Not surprising, only that he has allowed himself to believe what he is being briefed on.
On Trump's verbal pronouncements which sometimes seem dubious or even flat-out wrong, one partial explanation might be that cognitively he is somewhere on the autistic spectrum. That theory is bolstered by the fact that his son Barron is autistic, and the condition can be hereditary.
Autism comes with a very wide range of cognitive abilities and impairments. While some people are profoundly autistic and unable to function as normal human beings, some people on the autistic spectrum are highly intelligent and very, very capable at certain things. They can often function normally, with only some quirky behaviors to indicate that something is somewhat amiss.
The question is therfore : is it a systematic bias or is someone or some group deliberatly tries to manipulate the president ? Because each requires a totally different remedy.
And in the meantime the presidency is almost blind...
I wonder also, could it be a deliberate tactic to "drift neoconservative" for a while, just to soften opposition until confirmations are passed through the Senate ? And if so, could such tactic work ?
The third possibility is a good to have WWIII. Any attempt to force a ceasefire on Russia without addressing their security concerns is doomed to failure.
Lol ) Butter and eggs are quite inexpensive in Russia. Moreover, the choice is very diverse. Where do you get this information from? I'm constantly surprised...
The truth will set you free, but only if you search for it. Unfortunately most westerners are happy to be spoon-fed the 'truth' from unreliable sources.
Supply issues have been affecting all of Europe. Egg shortage has been making headlines in Norway. There were reports of Czech shoppers storming Polish supermarkets in search of butter.
It's quite obvious, that Trump isn't misinformed about Russian economy, but he just has to say something in order to convince the public, allies etc. that he can make an honorable peace, where US doesn't lose face.
Stephen Bryen is right, that Russian economy isn't that bad, but I really don't think he have a clue about Russian economy, like the rest of the western pundits.
For instance, does Russia have labour shortage? Russia has a pool of 35 million not having a regular paycheck, but being pretty inefficient contract workers and self employed. That explains why Russia can enroll 30.000 volunteers monthly into the army, and still have a growth being 4 pct. But Russia has lack of skilled STEM workers, like the rest of the modern world, maybe except China.
Why does Russia have an inflation being 9,5 pct. No western pundits could explain, so I do the job.
A huge war
A consumer boom
A construction boom (Russia is building more housing units than USA
Neither has anyone tried to find out the size of Russian economy, cause no one does the calculation and PPP hardly shows anything.
This war won't stop, until East European countries like Poland, Baltics, Romania etc. stops being hostile to Russia, and I guess, Trump knows.
Well at least Donald is acknowledging Ukrainian losses that are even somewhat higher than I heard from Col Douglas McGregor. It's also in line with Ukrainian well-known problems of recruiting replacements. Personally, I don't think there will be a systemic reassessment before the new team is in place - and that could take 3+ months or so.
Most politicians will attempt to lie in a credible way, or just conceal the truth entirely. Not being a politician in the usual sense, Trump is different. He doesn’t seem to care if he says something that’s obviously wrong.
In general, when it comes to numbers and such, Trump is completely unreliable. It must make him a nightmare to deal with in his big commercial transactions. Or maybe it’s intentionally part of his negotiating tactics. Regardless, on the million Russian casualties, I think we can safely say he is misinformed or perhaps even just saying the first thing that came into his head.
Economic factors are often opaque, but I think Mr. Bryen has a reasonably clear picture of Russia’s current financial situation. Certainly the publicly revealed data out of Russia paints a positive - if not glowing - picture of an economy that is nowhere near a crisis.
Given that Russia is at war one has to consider the possibility that Russia is concealing economic problems. But you can’t conceal exports, and Russia appears to have strong international commodity sales to bolster their domestic markets.
Like other observers, I don’t believe that any problems Russia may have are sufficient to influence how they choose to manage the war.
No one is the US establishment is willing to accept that the US lost the arms race, and cannot defeat Russia militarily or economically.
The US obsession with ruling the world is like a fucking cancer.
Trump needs to completely walk away from Ukraine. Not his war, not his problem. Let the Europeans deal with it.
Close all the US bases, bring everyone home, stop wasting a trillion dollars a year on guns and invest in your shithole country.
I can't believe you guys actually tolerate this. I thought you had guns to stop tyranny?
The USA has plenty of guns among the public, that’s for sure. But Americans (and much of the western world) are living under a much more powerful force: the government’s ability to manufacture consent.
The US government has full spectrum dominance in the information space. That space is 95% owned by just a few corporate mega-Inc’s with close ties to the government. Because mass communications is always regulated AND fed by government, it’s essentially become a single entity. The media dutifully tells the public what the government wants them to hear while revolving doors between the corporate boardrooms and US three-letter agencies keep the message precisely in line.
There is no alternative source of mass communication in the USA. There is no mass media that takes even a deeply investigative stance towards government, let alone an adversarial one. It’s all just a messaging system for the government.
Americans, like most everyone else, can be led by the nose when a supreme authority seeks to convince them. Unfortunately, America’s supreme authority has become akin to a totalitarian state. It’s cleverly disguised mind you behind boasts about freedom of speech and such. Nevertheless, it has to be said that the melding of America’s corporate media power with the government is textbook Fascism.
Re.: "akin to a totalitarian state." Not "akin" but bona fide. Many of us, who lived through the collapse of the USSR, were having déjà vu here the last 3 years; the geriatric leader mumbling from the podium (Brezhnev), the US Politburo jumping every 5 minutes in standing ovations, clapping like trained seals to whatever nonsense he's saying (the State of the Union), an eery reminder of the XXIV Forum of the Communist Party, and the Truth Ministry (the disinformation bureau/whatever) under the watchful Psaki's eye/leadership. Not mentioning the centralization of everything; food/news/cloth/books selling. My personal "favorite" was when after posting a thought on Instagram about Gaza, Maha Dakhil, famous CAA co-director, was demoted from her post and... drumrolls... was sent for "reforming" to the Jewish elders and she repented publicly and "saw the light." Just like in the USSR, the "wrong-thinkers" were forced to publicly deny their wrong "views" and repent. And Bill Ackman demanded the names of students of Harvard, protesting Israeli atrocities in Gaza, to ensure that they're permanently unemployed. Don't forget how Tucker Carlson was unsure if he would be even let back home after interviewing Putin - just like some Soviet author who said something "wrong" in France and he was stripped of his Soviet citizenship and denied entry to the USSR...
I have already watched this show, they can keep popcorn :-)
I have nothing like your experience to judge by, but everything you say rings true. And I can see how from your perspective America's totalitarianism looks absolutely real and I don't disagree with you. I used 'akin' as a rhetorical softening of my message for those who might object to my description.
That said, America has created a unusual - one might even say cunning - flavour of totalitarianism. There is still a lot of freedom in America around personal and social matters. Where things change for the worse is around political freedoms. There, the moneyed and powerful elite have it all sewn up. In the past they hid it more carefully, but now its fully out in the open. There is no difference between the US government and corporate America. It's just one great big entity driven by law-of-the-jungle capitalism utilizing whatever tools it wants to get its way.
Agreed. America developed its own variety of some sophisticatedly-woke/medically draconian type of totalitarianism. Marx was right, “history repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce," given America's leading itself/the world in the totalitarian woke/pronounces/transgender/DEI farce. Not sure about what "lot of freedom in America around personal and social matters" that we retained the last 4 years?Thousands lost their careers/MLs/reputations/livelihoods to the "safe & effective" mantra pushed from above, when even law prof Dershowitz advocated for forceful vaccination of the anti-vax infidels. Well, it wasn't as bad in the US, as it was in the USSR, when a patient with TB/STD missed their clinic appointment, a public notice of their diagnosis would be put their doors for their neighbors to see, but who knows, in the US, it might be getting this way, if this "total vaccination" campaign were to last a bit longer. In my city, they fired the firefighters even after the peak of this insanity went down.
A very draconian capitalism exists in America at the level of a mom-and-pop type businesses, while there is mega corporation racket and collusion, where real capitalism must be. As for our so-called "powerful elite," they are enjoying pure Communism. Communism's Credo is "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." Our elites got everything "according to their needs," but they don't have abilities to offer to society.
The good thing about the current times is that the masks have dropped, they can't/don't bother pretending anymore, and more and more Americans see what's going on, but still it was terrifying to see how many still voted for Kamala.
Yes indeed, the masks have slipped quite a bit. I think Elon Musk is largely the cause of that, as he is outspoken, independent and unabashed in his elitism. The other CEO's grew up in corporate America, and learned their lessons well. They're not so obvious about their intricately-woven role with government. But it's all for show of course. If anything the others are even more in the government's pocket than Musk.
I'm not sure how many or how quickly Americans will figure all this out, but if it happens at all I suspect it will be a slow process. To be sure there are many Americans who see the truth. But I suspect they're very much in the minority at present. With the American government's multi-dimensional lock on information, alternative messages are swimming against a very strong tide.
True. Musk, same as I, are "not from here," even if we lived on this continent for a long time, so it's easier for us to spot a regime in the making, vs. someone local, boiling like a frog, clueless till too late.
Indeed, Americans are slow on figuring things out, and the deliberately low educational standards play the role, plus the inbred exceptionalism. I work/friends with highly educated Americans, still the scope/foresight are unexpectedly low. Voting for Trump cost me some friendships, oh well :-)
I talk to Uber drivers when on business trips, and see most of them are caught up on what's going on. I had to wait for Uber in LA in Dec for 30 min, and Uber guy told me Uber now claims 60% of their earnings (while they use own car, insurance/amortization, etc.), many drivers quit. And for trip to my hotel, Uber sent me a real taxi (Uber bankrupted taxi businesses with its cheap fare first, and now Uber "rehires" taxi for "emergencies.) 60% of salary claimed by an employer beats the USSR, beats the EU socialism (even Scandinavian), especially when no perks like free health care, education, subsidized child care, lots of vacation, holidays time, mat, sick leave, etc., even exist in the US for businesses.
No way. K. U. Chernenko or L. I. Brezhnev were bona fide particle physicists at the height of their intellectual powers, compared to Biden or Trump.
Chernenko was too old/too short-termed to see his inclinations, but Brezhnev was on par with Biden. You probably didn't hear his musings about how when he was sent to help "kolkhozniks" with the harvest, he'd deliver 10 boxes of produce to the state, but keep 1 box for himself, just like Biden's "10% for a big guy" :-)
That is true, however… whatever mind-control America may have over its own citizens - exogenous forces exist.
Simply because a society sings off the same hymnal - and I don’t see any strong consensus vis a vis Ukraine - doesn’t mean that society has the strength to impose its will on the outside world.
Reading the tea leaves - Trump’s threats of more tariffs are *intentionally* weak. No militaristic jargon whatsoever.
Quite reasonably, Trump *seems* very focused on a handful of domestic issues that deeply need fixing.
Spot on.
I am of the opinion that everything a politician says publicly is meant for public consumption and is not necessarily part of his set of assumptions.
If he really believes this though, the US is in a lot of hurt. It would imply that their information gathering is seriously flawed.
If he does not believe it, but only pretends to do so, it might be a ploy to use this as a reason to abandon the Ukraine project later on when the "true" numbers are exposed and he will have ammo against the intelligence agencies.
We go through this over and over again. There is no master plan, no eleven dimensional chess here. If Trump wanted ammo to use on the spooks, he already has that.
Its a simple fact of life that (western) politicians (almost) never tell the truth.
Trump is too stupid to come up with anything so elaborate, and as I said, if he wanted ammom he already has that.
"Trump is too stupid to come up with anything so elaborate, and as I said, if he wanted ammom he already has that."
But Trump is not in control. He has limitations on what he can do by the Deep State.
Perhaps, but we end up int he same place in the end. The war will only escalate, in large part because Russia dithered.
Elaboration & tinsel aren't Trump's issues, his issue is the lack of content.
I am not sure I understand what you are saying.
But maybe he just bluffs, Douglas Macgregor just posted on X that Trump has called a halt to all military aid to Ukraine for a complete audit and investigation.
Trump might extend this audit and get out of Ukraine under the "audit results."
All the pomp and vanity, no essence.
Western politicians are incapable of speaking frankly. This is a result of party politics and the deep fear politicians have of saying something that will negatively affect the polls. There’s no advantage to speaking the truth, because the truth always has at least two sides to it. And that doesn’t lend itself to a three second sound bite.
Doubt that " the truth always has at least two sides to it." Usually, if something requires too elaborate an explanation, and a "massaging effort," it's most likely not the truth. Most of the truths, especially the cardinal ones, are pretty straightforward.
What you're describing is dogma, not the truth. Dogma, be it political, religious or social, doesn't allow for alternative views. The truth on the other hand will always self-referentially check its beliefs against alternatives, because that's the only way to be sure you're right.
But perhaps I'm not seeing it clearly. Can you give me an example of a non-trivial absolute truth, one that has a single dimension with no other viewpoint possible.
I feel I'm cheating a bit, but the below truth doesn't fit dogma, defined by you as, "be it political, religious or social."
There are only 2 sexes. Carry XX chromosomes - you a woman. Carry XY chromosomes - you a man. We all know how it went in the last few years.
Please give me an example of the truth "with at least two sides to it."
The problem is that in politics words have consequences unless you have an arrangement with the other side. Now, you might say secretly to the other side, "Hey we are going to say this, just ignore it - its for public consumption." I do not think this is the case however. Trump is shooting from the lip and I do not think he is aware of the consequences of what he is saying. Just my feeling on this.
Excellent piece.
Out of all the propaganda coming out of “the west” the economic falsehoods are the most baffling because they are the ones most easily disproven.
At the macro level you simply cannot fake prosperity. There are simply too many data points that can debunk any claim of false affluence. Likewise… the reverse is also true.
The Russian economy is going gang busters and, as you correctly point out, their problem is too few workers.
Just the raw natural abundance of Russia guarantees a baseline of wealth with not much effort. Food, energy , coal, natural gas, oil, minerals, metals of all kinds.
As long as Russia isn’t actively sabotaging itself - it’s going to have a pretty decent standard of living. Too many American politicians looked at the 1990’s as a baseline reality when, in fact, it was an artificial poverty brought on by mass theft and anarchy.
Those days are over.
correct
I did not mention massive wheat and gain harvests
Very astute comment, Pete.
My wife went shopping yesterday (cortez, colorado); Local Krogers 1doz eggs/$10. We buy our eggs from a local farmer for half. In Durango, her favorite store had no eggs at all. Russia seems to be doing better.
In Moscow you can buy 10 fresh good quality eggs for 1,53 USD with delivery to your door 24/7.
Yikes, those are expensive eggs, even by comparison to Canada!
Anecdotal videos I’ve seen from Russia show grocery shelves fully stocked and prices that seem very reasonable for most goods. While those videos could be staged, there’s nothing to stop western media from going and checking themselves. But they don’t. That suggests that far from Russians rioting over lack of food, they’re doing fine in that department.
Affordable food, shelter, clothing and general security are the essentials for any population. Russia appears to be providing all of those things to its people.
Russians have many things to worry about but food security is definitely not one of them.
I believe you're right on that point, and from what I can tell Russians are doing fine in the other areas that are essential to a civilization: clothing, shelter and general security for the humans that make up the society. I'm definitely not saying that everything is perfect in Russia, I'm sure there are many problems there as well. But the basics of human existence in a society appear to be well taken care of. Contrast that with, say, the USA where there are hundreds of thousands of people without shelter and they're not even trying to fix the problem.
As near as I can tell, since Mr. Putin became president of Russia, his fundamental goal was to ensure that all Russians have access to those basics. He did not put the cart before the horse. Instead he ensured that the Russia is providing the essentials for any successful civilization, and can now move on to other goals.
Yeah, there is a number of issues in Russia but things got much better than dysfunctional chaos of the 90s (Russia was basically a fucked up Wild West these days).
Nothing staged about it. Even Tucker was amazed when he walked around and saw things with his own eyes.
And eggshell, especially of Costco's so-called "organic eggs" is so thin, sometimes you can break it with a finger push. I don't recall the eggshell ever being so breakable.
I agree with this article completely. Russia can damage Europe much more than NATO, other than directly fighting the Russians, can damage Russia.
The question is, based on purchasing power parity, why Russia has moved from the 12th largest economy in 2021 to the 4th in 2024. And this is a country under the most heavy sanctions regime that has been imposed.
Ironically, the war has freed up the Russian economy from the constraints it was suffering prior to it. For instance, many Russian firms were locked into partnerships with Western firms which meant that a lot of money made in Russia was repatriated abroad, especially to Europe. The Western firms left Russia during the war but could not take their factories, products and workers with them. These were scooped up by Russians and the factories produce 'Western' products under Russian names. Furthermore, all the extra money not being repatriated to the West now sloshing around in the economy have been reinvested into infrastructure which makes Russian future productivity more efficient. Europe on the other hand has lost an income stream that would be most useful right now.
The point is that while Russia has moved to a 'War Economy' it is not a full War Economy. Russia still produces many consumer products for both its own and foreign consumers, not to count raw materials. While the West has tried, and failed to an extent, to ween itself off Russia, the Global South has no compunction to join this self-destructive activity. For instance India, which produces little domestic oil, yet since 2022 they have become a net exporter to oil - to Europe of all places at inflated prices. The Europeans know that it is Russian oil, but because India is selling it then it is not Russian oil in their eyes. Or Malaysia which mixes its own oil with Russian crude - its not 'Russian' oil. And this does not take into account all the other stuff Russia provides that the world needs.
Does the Russian econmy have problems - yes, but who does not. But these problems are manageable and Putin has a good economic team behind him managing this.
Unfortunately Trump has been given bad intelligence, from by the way the very sources who have an interest in continuing the war (see my comments on the last article which dealt with barriers with negotiations). This means he has a false impression of reality. Putin will walk away from negotiations if Trump thinks he has the whip hand, and as the Ukrainian situation worsens Trump will be drawn into a war - doing the same thing instinctually that Biden did deliberately - a war the West cannot reverse without joining the fighting on the ground, which in turns leads to nuclear war which no one wins.
My thoughts on the Russian economy are much the same as yours. The crippling sanctions placed on Russia seem to be harming everyone but Russia!
Some fun facts…
As soon as the sanctions were enacted, the Kremlin prohibited capital leaving the country. This did two things. It stopped foreign firms from extracting revenue from Russia, and it forced Russians with capital to invest to use it in their own country.
Some western firms abandoned their businesses in Russia entirely. For example, Shell Oil took a $10 billion write off of their investment! It’s certain that the total of all such abandoned capital runs into the tens of billions, and Russians snapped it up for a song.
Aviation. When the sanctions hit, there approximately 460 airliners in Russia leased from western firms. All those airliners are still working, but doing it for free. Lease payments ( and they are substantial for airliners) are gone. Russia acquired a huge fleet of aircraft for literally nothing. To be sure, the sanctions included restrictions on parts and service for those airliners, but there are often sources in friendly countries to help. Moreover, when you paid nothing for the airliner, cannibalizing one or two for parts is a non-issue.
It wasn't Russia that prohibited capital leaving - the sanctions and turning of SWIFT made it impossible to transfer that money.
Where payment was/is due the Russians opened escrow accounts in the name of the Western receiver. Therefore, the use of leased planes is not free - the payments are done. Many in the West where talking about "Russia having stolen Western airplanes" - but they supposedly never have seen a leasing contract. Under which the user pays money and the lessor provides the plane without hindering it's use. Usually, the business model of lessors doesn't contain the idea of return before deadline. But let's assume they may request the return under some force majeure - in this case a hefty price tag will be attached. And as long as the contractual penalty isn't paid [well, they can't pay for the very same reasons] the aviation company will not give the planes back. This seems proper legal behavior. OFC, I haven't seen the leasing agreements in question.
BTW, there are a lot of juridical procedures. The Lessors claimed "total loss" with their insurances. When the insurance agreed to such claim, it pays and become owner of the plane - substituting the lessor in the leasing agreement with the Russian company, still trying to sell it and get the money back. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/dae-reaches-319m-in-cumulative-settlements-for-stranded-aircraft/
Everybody who went recently to Moscow said it's filled now with China-made cars vs. the EU made cars, as used to. The EU's stupidly lost them the market
I wouldn't be so sure - re.:airliners, there are too many implications on top of just "cannibalizing one or two parts" or getting them via murky sources, there are insurance/liability implications, etc., And yeah, it's possible to get around, but still.
Commercial aviation is something I'm familiar with. Without going into a huge explanation of all the ins and outs, I'll just say that airlines exchange parts between aircraft frequently. Depending on the part needed the fix can be very easy. It's a world-wide accepted practice is what I'm saying.
Russia doesn't need to get its Airbus or Boeing parts from shady sources. They can just ask a friendly country to order the part from the manufacturer, ostensibly for their own fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Then that part is quietly sent on to Russia. Moreover, Russia has its own aircraft industry building modern jets. If a critical part is needed they can make most of them if necessary.
Commercial aviation aspects I don't know much about, but I know an aerospace engineer (worked for Boeing, Airbus, etc. in the US, and an aerospace company in Russia way back), so per him, it's a bad situation, they can't get parts and support. Maybe something changed. Russia traditionally has strong aerospace industry base, but they also for years relied on Western aircraft, now reverted back to self-reliance.
That person isn't speaking out of current knowledge. He's simply repeating something he heard that he believes to be true. That puts his statement into the category of, "Russia is running out of soldiers and missiles!" While it could be true, we do not see evidence for it.
I re-asked and he is adamant that the info is current, and it's still problematic, and the airlines from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc. are being used, and that Boeings and Airbuses which Russia didn't return from leases, are used internally, but if something gets broken, it's a problem. That currently Russia doesn't have enough planes to fulfill domestic needs
He is not the "Russia is running out of soldiers and missiles!" type, but possibly accepted the commonly held position on the above situation.
You make several mistakes.
Russia haven't moved up from 12th to 4th in economic size(PPP), but from 6th to 4th, and it was expected back then.
The "primary payments on balance of payments", which you claim Russia has freed up a lot of money, has been improved by around 20 billion usd according to CBR.
The Russian economy haven't moved into a state of "war economy" - there's a consumer boom and a construction boom. For now the Russians doesn't feel the war, unless they want to.
Finally, does Russia have economic problems that it can't manage? Main priority in Kremlin is demographics. Which modern society have yet solved that problem? That's a problem killing nationhood.
Thank you Anders but you misread some of what I have said.
Severasl sources (one being the IMF) in the past have said 12th place for Rissian economy to 4th (and two sources I know and forgot to add say 5th). It depends on the sources.
I did clarify that it was not a complete war economy as Putin had made sure that there was a healthy consumer economy. You are just reiterating my point and making it deeper. Also you emphasis my point on the consumer and construction boom (infratstructure) partly financed by non-repatriated funds. I might add that there has also been an massive increase in business start-ups. From an economics point of view, many countries in the OECD like to have the issues that Russia faces.
Just a thought to clarify. By War Economy Russia, in fighting an attritional war, has vastly increased its production of military equipment. However, going back to Putin's economic team, they have been careful to balance guns against butter.
Russian doesn't feel the war - economically, of course. That's why it's not an war economy.
The reason for the construction boom is preferential loans given to large families, veterans etc. Something Nabiuliana(head of CBR), complains about, cause it has a huge effect on inflation.
From what I read/listened to, Putin's preparing the next political cadre - the military from SMO, who distinguished themselves through brains/courage are given the fast-track to the political/economic leadership via extensive/intense training.
That's my impression too, and it's a good plan.
The veterans are rewarded, no doubt about that, and the obvious question is,if it's a good idea. Courage and skills in warfare, doesn't necessarily make you a good administrator in civil live. But it tells about the importance of this war and its coming legacy in Russian society - a new "great patriotic war", as WWII is called in Russia.
There's at least two aspects to Russia's intention to elevate veterans to responsible positions. The first is the principle of rewarding those who contribute the most to society. If you're willing to lay down your life for your society, that's a big deal and rewarding it only makes sense.
The second aspect is that veterans have trained in a highly structured organization - the army, navy or air force. Deploying a military organization requires an enormous level of management. Exposure to, or working with that degree of management, can rub off on people who are later tasked with managing something in civilian life. Their experience isn't always going to be applicable to civilian undertakings. But in the broader sense of an organization needing a level of discipline, established procedures and so forth, people with exposure to military life do have skills that can translate to other organizations.
Usually the best guideline for hiring people, is getting the best qualified for the job. It might be a veteran, but not necessarily.
I think, that the best reward would housing, medicare, education if needed and wanted, of course make sure they have a respectable life economically and make sure they are honored(parades, monuments etc.)
Yes, the war often demands/awards the very skills not tolerated during civil life. Some heroic deeds are a result of arrogant subordination. Some military won't be unable to fit/settle down, but most administrative skills can be learned, while courage, honor , and the ability to sacrifice for something bigger than yourself, are mostly intrinsic.
I agree with your comments, but Trump, like Biden, is not in control.
Completely agree - but in both cases both men think they are indeed in control, until events prove otherwise. The only one in control at present, baring adverse events, is Putin.
What Trump and team are saying is laughable. They better figure out that Russia holds all the cards real quick if they want to come out looking better than total defeat. Russia won’t settle for anything less than a comprehensive treaty settling all security issues permanently, and if that isn’t on the table they will co time to destroy Ukraine until there is no state left to defend. Russia has so far refrained from counter-sanctions. That’s not far away now as Europe has almost completely cut ties. What happens when they stop selling titanium and uranium on open markets? Keep pushing and we’re going to see just how weak the global economy actually is.
I think we have to take note that Mr. Trump has surrounded himself with advisors who want to end the war and are willing (at least they were) to meet Russia half way. Now the tune is changed, and it is largely based on falsified intelligence reports. Remember Trump has been getting intel briefings since he was elected in November. They have worked him rather successfully, it seems to me. Whether he can escape the jaws of disinformation and not fall into the fake psywar trap remains to be seen, but his latest remarks were, to say the least, off-putting.
One would think that at least someone in the Trump orbit--Barron maybe or Vance--reads Stephen's columns or hears guests on Judge Napolitano's podcasts or the Duran. So pathetic.
Which falsified intelligence?
You mean, falsified intelligence is a bona fide example of an oxymoron?
The USSR made a mistake of allowing JFK save his face by keeping quiet (as promised,) that the US was forced to remove its nukes from Turkey (in exchange for the USSR removing from Cuba.) This constant coddling the US public, poorly educated as is, mostly not well travelled, leaves the public eagerly awaiting/demanding the smoke & mirrors shows, which are hard to watch or stomach. It's an achievement on Trump's part to even to say that, "we're in deep shit," but immediately proceed with his off the wall numbers & threatening sanctions. AGAIN?!
Here we go again. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. For this reason, there will be no deal and the United States will only continue to escalate.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands-president-is-trying-to-trick?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=835783&post_id=155509344&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1cc3o&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
I figured this out months ago.
M.R. wrote something interesting @Simplicius yesterday -
" It's only been 4 years, but everyone is forgetting the first rule of Trump Club:
Ignore what Trump says, wait 5 days and watch what he does."
I wasn't in Trump "club" the last time around, but the above seems worth testing:-)
That's a common fanboi cope. What Trump does is considerably underwhelming.
Yep, that's why I voted against Trump in 2020, while my Republican friends were saying, "don't listen to what he says, watch what he does." But I wasn't seeing what is it exactly that he "does." I've seen Trump throwing money hand over fist to minuscular biotechs, I knew (professionally) won't be able to deliver.
I did not vote for Trump in 2016, nor in 2020, nor in 2024.
I did not vote for the Team D corproate imperialist muppet either. (Cats can vote in my state, although few of us bother to do so.)
I didn't vote at all in 2016, I voted against Trump in 2020, but I wasn't going to waste my vote in 2024 by voting for Kamala by "default," so I voted for Trump. The cats in my state are democratically inclined.
Are you a cat?
Someone noted on the interwebs that President Trump overstated USSR deaths in WWII as well as in the SMO ... and by about the same ratio. Maybe this was a wink of President Trump's eye to let the Russian's know that he understands the real position?
Let's not forget that President Trump's real enemies (and America's real enemies) are in the US bureaucracy, media, academia, legal system -- all waiting for the chance to pounce on him by claiming that he is a "Putin stooge". They have done it before (two impeachments!), they will do it again ... if he gives them half a chance. Much of President Trump's words are aimed at that internal enemy, and fortunately the Russians seem to recognize this, which is why they don't react.
It is not clear that the US needs to be involved in any future negotiations over the Ukraine. That is really between the Euros and Russia. If there are negotiations, President Trump has more carrots than sticks for the Russians -- such as cutting off aid to Zelensky, returning the funds stolen from Russia, lifting sanctions, returning NATO to a defensive alliance ... or pulling the US out of NATO. But President Trump needs to watch his back, because of all those Usual Suspects in the US longing to bring him down.
solid argument
I've heard from few people I know that Trump is a "Putin stooge, " but when you ask them to elaborate on it, they just can't. They are so used to repeat slogans du jour, they can't even formulate own thoughts by now.
I agree with your analysis of the Russian situation.
But I believe that Putin made an awful decision at the beginning of the war. He should have planned a quick, decisive win, interdicting everything entering Ukraine, destroying all military installations, and disrupting utilities and transportation. The limited approach has been costly for Russia.
I think Russia expected to quickly reach a Minsk-3, and was well on the way to realizing this when Johnson stepped in.
Of course, it was foolish for Russia not to have a Plan B.
I am not a fan of wars of attrition. Too much bad shit can happen while you are dicking around.
Always fight to win quickly.
They had a “Plan B”… they were just stunned they actually had to carry through with it. They never expected the “west” to be so stupid.
I see no evidence of this, unless the failure at Krasny Liman and the ambandinment of Kherson was all part of some Double Secret Master Strategy.
Putin went in Feb 2022 with what - 70,000-150,000 Russian troops, to prove his point of forcing Ukraine into proper negotiations, and preempting Kyiv/NATO launch on Donbas. Obviously, the above were not true "occupational troops" needed to hold such substantial territories, as it wasn't Putin's goal at all, hence Russians left to prevent the unneeded losses. No "Double Secret Master Strategy" - just common sense and contingency approach,
The failures at Krasny Liman and abandonment of Kherson were after negotiations failed. There was no plan B once negotiations failed. That was the problem and has been the problem throughout the war is that Russia expects its enemies to react a certain way and then is caught flatfooted when they don't.
I believe the goal should be to win a war decisively, not quickly. Quick victories rarely deal with all the factors that created the war in the first place.
Take the US invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) as examples. The Americans declared ‘mission accomplished’ in a matter of months. But lower tempo hostilities never stopped because the indigenous forces and the political interests behind them never capitulated. America eventually had to pull out of Afghanistan in disarray 20 years later. So much for the quick, decisive victory.
I think it was Sun Tzu who said that the supreme art of war is to defeat your enemy with little or no fighting. That was Russia’s plan at the start. Even though that tactic/strategy was unsuccessful early on, it can still be a good plan for Russia in the ongoing war. Regardless of the speed with which the war progresses, the ultimate goal is to have the enemy capitulate to your demands. If that can be accomplished with less destruction and fewer people dying, that’s a good thing according to Sun Tzu.
"Quick victories rarely deal with all the factors that created the war in the first place."
A quick victory has nothing to do with the planning for war.
"If that can be accomplished with less destruction and fewer people dying, that’s a good thing according to Sun Tzu."
But there has been a lot of death and destruction. Much of the death and destruction in Russia could have been avoided if Russia had planned a quick, decisive war.
Everyone is quick to quote Sun Tzu, a Chinese war philosopher who lived 2500 years ago. Things are a little different now.
Thanks for your reply.
The means of making war has changed greatly, but the purpose of waging war hasn't changed at all. The goal is to make the enemy capitulate to all your demands. If that possibility exists, then there's likely to be more than one way to bring it about. Sun Tzu points out that using a path to capitulation that creates the least destruction and loss of life is the best way to go. I don't believe that maxim has changed despite the passage of time.
"Sun Tzu points out that using a path to capitulation that creates the least destruction and loss of life is the best way to go."
A quick, decisive win leads to a quick capitulation, avoiding long, drawn-out, bloody, and destructive battles.
If Putin had decisively destroyed Ukraine's ability to fight, tens of thousands of lives would been saved.
We disagree.
"This is a war of attrition!" is just retcon for Russia supporters. Simialrly with talk about a mythical "Russian way of war" that involves a lot of waffling and not actually winning.
They forget Bagration, Operation Uranus, August Storm, the Brusilov Offensive, and many other examples from Russian history.
Russia used the best strategy it could in the circumstances. They did in fact go for a quick, decisive win. And they almost had it with the Istanbul treaty. But then Washington told them to go to war.
Russia’s tactic to begin with was a feint. They made lightning attacks on four fronts and had considerable success. But there was no way Russia had the resources to continue to hold and expand the territory they conquered. Russia knew this all along. Their hope was to shock Kiev into capitulation by seemingly making an overwhelming attack on multiple fronts.
As I said, it almost worked. If it had been successful hundreds of thousands more people would be alive today on both sides. So it was totally a tactic worth trying.
Following the failure of Istanbul, Russia retreated and geared up for a war in earnest. I believe their army is twice as large now, and it appears to have no shortages of crucial supplies. It’s a grinding war but even so Russia is going slow. They could be causing far, far more destruction than they are presently. The measured pace may be designed to show Ukraine the inevitable outcome, while giving it time to capitulate before many more people die.
It was and still is impossible for Russia to interdict all western military aid going to Ukraine. Ukraine shares long borders with at four NATO countries. Obviously supplies will get through regardless of what Russia does via conventional means.
Who says, that the offensive against Kiev wasn't a ski maneuver? Look at the number of soldiers Russia used to invade the whole of northern Ukraine - around a 100.000. Look at how quickly they retreated, and look at what happened in the southern Ukraine - Russian occupied 30.000 km2 within a month.
Kremlin likes this war of attrition, cause it empty the storage of NATO, and Kremlin choosed the right time to pick up a fight - just after the COVID-19, when supply chain was a mess in the West.
There are different ways to interpret Trump's rhetoric, each different and not mutually exclusive.
The first and basic one is to consider that Trump has a special reation with the truth. That's his way of thinking and expressing himself and there's nothing to do about it but hoping he will not err too far from reality.
The second is that it's part of his tactics. The crazy stuff is there to destablize and create a space through which he can extract concessions. That implies he knows exactly how to navigate the web of lies and the effects it can have on the different actors of the play.
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The third one is that the difference between the pre presidential Trump that sounded closer to reality than the presidential one we're hearing now, is that the information received by the president is skewed. This is the most frightening of all, it would mean that what arrives on the president's desk has been filtered to such an extent that it mirrors the the official war narrative. Like being blinded by it's own propaganda. It's quite unlikely that a departing Biden admin would have the time to create such an information filter just for Trump, it would be too easy to notice and correct. So most likely this would be a leftover from Biden's time. Which could also explain Biden's stubbornness. Willingly or not the biden admin would have locked itself into a fantasy world, most likely by shutting down (a little at first and more and more as war endured) dissenting voices whose analysis threatened the unity "required" in times of war.
We have to hope that it's mostly the second explanation that drives president Trump's turnaround. For if it is not, the likelihood of dramatic developments increases exponentially.
My assumption is that he and is security advisors are being fed bad stuff from the intel community. Not surprising, only that he has allowed himself to believe what he is being briefed on.
On Trump's verbal pronouncements which sometimes seem dubious or even flat-out wrong, one partial explanation might be that cognitively he is somewhere on the autistic spectrum. That theory is bolstered by the fact that his son Barron is autistic, and the condition can be hereditary.
Autism comes with a very wide range of cognitive abilities and impairments. While some people are profoundly autistic and unable to function as normal human beings, some people on the autistic spectrum are highly intelligent and very, very capable at certain things. They can often function normally, with only some quirky behaviors to indicate that something is somewhat amiss.
The question is therfore : is it a systematic bias or is someone or some group deliberatly tries to manipulate the president ? Because each requires a totally different remedy.
And in the meantime the presidency is almost blind...
I wonder also, could it be a deliberate tactic to "drift neoconservative" for a while, just to soften opposition until confirmations are passed through the Senate ? And if so, could such tactic work ?
The third possibility is a good to have WWIII. Any attempt to force a ceasefire on Russia without addressing their security concerns is doomed to failure.
Lol ) Butter and eggs are quite inexpensive in Russia. Moreover, the choice is very diverse. Where do you get this information from? I'm constantly surprised...
That has been in new reports. Perhaps they are wrong.
https://www.okeydostavka.ru/msk/iaitso-kurinoe-so-okei-10sht
10 eggs - $ 1.16
Prices can be easily checked on the websites of any Russian supermarket chain. It's easy, but no one in the West does it.
The truth will set you free, but only if you search for it. Unfortunately most westerners are happy to be spoon-fed the 'truth' from unreliable sources.
Supply issues have been affecting all of Europe. Egg shortage has been making headlines in Norway. There were reports of Czech shoppers storming Polish supermarkets in search of butter.
It's quite obvious, that Trump isn't misinformed about Russian economy, but he just has to say something in order to convince the public, allies etc. that he can make an honorable peace, where US doesn't lose face.
Stephen Bryen is right, that Russian economy isn't that bad, but I really don't think he have a clue about Russian economy, like the rest of the western pundits.
For instance, does Russia have labour shortage? Russia has a pool of 35 million not having a regular paycheck, but being pretty inefficient contract workers and self employed. That explains why Russia can enroll 30.000 volunteers monthly into the army, and still have a growth being 4 pct. But Russia has lack of skilled STEM workers, like the rest of the modern world, maybe except China.
Why does Russia have an inflation being 9,5 pct. No western pundits could explain, so I do the job.
A huge war
A consumer boom
A construction boom (Russia is building more housing units than USA
Neither has anyone tried to find out the size of Russian economy, cause no one does the calculation and PPP hardly shows anything.
This war won't stop, until East European countries like Poland, Baltics, Romania etc. stops being hostile to Russia, and I guess, Trump knows.
Well at least Donald is acknowledging Ukrainian losses that are even somewhat higher than I heard from Col Douglas McGregor. It's also in line with Ukrainian well-known problems of recruiting replacements. Personally, I don't think there will be a systemic reassessment before the new team is in place - and that could take 3+ months or so.
Most politicians will attempt to lie in a credible way, or just conceal the truth entirely. Not being a politician in the usual sense, Trump is different. He doesn’t seem to care if he says something that’s obviously wrong.
In general, when it comes to numbers and such, Trump is completely unreliable. It must make him a nightmare to deal with in his big commercial transactions. Or maybe it’s intentionally part of his negotiating tactics. Regardless, on the million Russian casualties, I think we can safely say he is misinformed or perhaps even just saying the first thing that came into his head.
Economic factors are often opaque, but I think Mr. Bryen has a reasonably clear picture of Russia’s current financial situation. Certainly the publicly revealed data out of Russia paints a positive - if not glowing - picture of an economy that is nowhere near a crisis.
Given that Russia is at war one has to consider the possibility that Russia is concealing economic problems. But you can’t conceal exports, and Russia appears to have strong international commodity sales to bolster their domestic markets.
Like other observers, I don’t believe that any problems Russia may have are sufficient to influence how they choose to manage the war.