“Trump complained that Russia's actions are undermining the negotiating process which, in Trump's view, is supposed to be arranging a ceasefire.”
The reason for the drone attack on Kiev? A promised response to the drone attack on Moscow/Russia by Kiev. That needs to be stated and understood. It would not have happened if the Ukrainians did not strike first.
Exactly so. From the beginning, Putin should have conducted the war for a quick and decisive victory. Now he is mired in a shit show, with too many casualties on both sides.
Russia did not use enough overwhelming force, and then, when the negotiations in Istanbul (predictably) failed, Russia failed to tighten the noose.
Russia's problem is that they do not want to make war on what they still see as their sadly misguided brethren. They do not want to destroy the West but to join it.
Judging from Putin comments, he felt Russia was not sufficiently mobilized to take on NATO, and therefore wanted to slow walk the war until military industries and armed forces recruitment were fully cranked up. He also has to mollify allies; though by now they fully understand what Russia is up against and the restraint the Kremlin has shown.
In any case, the West is weary, frustrated and out of ammo... so maybe Putin was right all along.
For the first time in Russian history, they have no real desire to unite with or to be accepted by the West. The legacy of Catherine and Peter has faded. I think they now see themselves as a somewhat different civilization. They would like to do business with the Europeans, but that is no longer that important to them. They don't trust the West, and why should they? And they probably don't need it anymore, not even as an ideological beacon.
When I lived in Ukraine (2004-2012) there was a fashion to denigrate all things western. The moment membership in The Club was dangled out, all was forgotten, all was forgiven.
Hi Dmitriy, do you have any links to EL news articles reporting this most recent drone attack on Moscow/regions? I assume you mean May 23 attack reported in Ru here https://news.mail.ru/incident/66252687/
Yeah right, but nothing in the mainstream. MSM completely one-sided. Yet Ukr shells border Ru villages w/cluster munitions. Someone I know sent me a first-hand video today
Alastair Crooke is getting a lot of attention after his discussion with the Judge about Trump's recent off-the-wall comments with reference to Russia strikes in Kiev in which the President angrily claimed that Putin is going crazy and killing women and children— and no, he hadn't heard about the drone strikes which appeared to be targeting Putin's helicopter.
“That said, all those old people in front of the cameras – doesn't look good. They are not POWs! Fortunately for Kiev, Western media won't show the pictures. But the Russian media will – inflaming the public even more.”
Olga, yes, that is exactly what I meant. Note that the article states “three days in a row”, not just one day. You’ve found a good article that describes everything in detail. That is something that you just can’t find in the Western media. And that is why I read Substack. Basically what actually happens during the SMO in the Ukraine is accurately translated and summarised in English. I can propose some contacts on Substack (in English) that I read and compare to what is available in the Russian media. There are also several military reporters on Telegram (in Russian) that provide current and accurate information on what is going on on the front. Please let me know!
Let's just assume the hypothetical - Trump won 2020, but died shortly thereafter, and was succeeded by Pence. Do you really believe Pence would have done the same policy as Trump? Or as Biden? Or had developed his own policy?
You don't have that many pressure points after pursuing 4 different charges in 4 different courts plus subjecting someone to at least 2 assassination attempts.
People read WAY too much into Trump's tweets and utterances. We know that he has a tendency to listen to the last person he talked to and blurt whatever that opinion is out. We know that he's easily manipulated and not the brightest bulb in our ceiling. We know that he's a consummate bullshitter.
Putin's met the bastard. I'm sure he's figured that out by now.
It has already been decided by the MIC and Big Oil that there will be no war on Iran, but the former certainly has an interest in prolonging the Ukraine War for as long as possible in order to maximize their profits. The only question is how much Russia decides it can afford to let them get away with.
Crazy.. hardly, Putin is the most cognisant and lucid of world leaders, sadly Trump cannot see the irony in his stated rationale for making such an utterance, whatever Putin’s aero forces might have initiated against the Azov Western contrived and supported Nazi’s, pales into insignificance contrasted to Trumps and Americans efforts at the wilful killing, almost it seems gleeful, killing and injury inducing let alone the completely destructive efforts undertaken against civilians in Gaza, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, or…. who can or will ever forget the past U.S bombing efforts of civilians in Hiroshima, The Balkans, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, in other words bloviator in Chief, Trump ought check his comments before raging and hitting the keyboard, it’s truly embarrassing and screams of hypocrisy, a hypocrisy born of ignorance … perhaps more likely of arrogance, totally misplaced and definitely in need of being called out… the world is tiring of this rhetorical nonsense, words not supported actions, of double speak, another reason the world populace has tuned out America and everything American… good luck with forcing onshoring and then selling to the World the crap to be manufactured as like.y it will be, intially anyways, stuff made by an incompetent unskilled workforce, on that metric alone wallets offshore will remain well and truly closed, ag products… no thanks not until your predilection and love affair for the liberal use of chemicals, many of them banned but approved for use in the U.S because of lobbying, monies exchanged, despite many of the chemicals approved harmful to and for human consumption… bottom line the U.S needs the World, the World has realised it doesn’t need nor has to rely on the U.S, markets abound outside of the U.S, at the present rate and continuing along this double speak road, the U.S will find itself isolated, a self inflicted outcome… the global south nations wanting not a bar of it, nothing, not even the soft power of its music and movies now considered immoral, a threat to stability.. culture that is profanity and inculcated with sex to the point of being almost x rated, now considered by many to be simply.. unsuitable…the U.S and the West will be the true outliers, looking in, feeding off of the crumbs falling from the Multipolarity table, a true reversal… karma, maybe, but perhaps just what ought and should be…afterall who in their right mind wants to invite trouble, known troublemakers into their midst, best to pay them respect but to keep them distant, well distant a whole new reality, a whole new world beckons, BRICS+ multipolarity, a new paradigm long awaited much wanted, bring it on… just saying
One theory is that Trump is looking for a Nobel Peace Prize to his resume by ending an ongoing conflict (after all, they gave one to Obama for nothing) . The Israeli/Gaza War is too hard and intractable. The 'claim' that he calmed down the Indian/Pakistani conflict does not have the gravatas with the Nobel Committee, so the easiest war to solve would appear to be the Russo-Ukraine War. But as Murphy's Law of Combat has it: ' In War everything is easy, but the easy things are hard'. Hence anything that mitigates his 'attempts' at finding peace attracts his ire. To be fair he also had a go at Zelensky in his language and attitude.
If we analyse the latest tit-for-tat drone/missile attacks, we see the differing philosophies of the protagonists. The Ukrainians seem to be firing strategic level drones into Russia indiscrimantly in the main, without specific strategic targets in the hopes of a photo-op of damage/destruction to somewhere in Moscow or other cities. However this is counter productive as not only does it waste valuable resources Ukraine cannot afford, but studies from WWII and beyond show that such antics stiffen the resolve of the targeted civilian population. So even if Putin wanted to make concessions his population might not allow him.
The Russians on the other hand are firing at specific military and industrial targets (like the massive Antonov Factory in Kiev that makes drones) within Ukraine, with the majority of drones being used to soak up AA fire/enable targeting of AA sites. This fits a specific pattern and plan, and the Russians are continuing with it. Are civilians hit - yes, from working at these targeted sites (therefore under the laws of war legitimate casualties), inadvertent collateral damage from the fallout of drones/missiles hit by AA or from AA that failed to hit targets or Russian errors in targeting.
This war is intractable to negotiation. Russia does not trust the West having been disappointed many times before when there have been treaties. Ukraine will not give up as long as its manpower, the materiality of the West or willpower are able to last. In the end this war will be decided on the battlefield, and that will dictate the peace. Trump will have very little to do with it.
I genuinely thought Trump understood the real nature of both state to state diplomacy and war.
Russia is fighting a war. And it is fighting that war to achieve victory. War involves killing people and destroying things until your adversary submits. This is a primal truism since the dawn of civilization.
It’s unclear if there are any adults left in either America or Europe.
"I genuinely thought Trump understood the real nature of both state to state diplomacy and war."
You are joking, right? It has been obvious for at least eight years that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated, that loudmouth from the corner bar, transplanted into the Oval Office.
Trump behaved like a toddler who experiences powerlessness.
Truth be told, the Russians let him talk, negotiate and rant. However, the war will be fought to its conclusion. I think everyone knows this, but Trump.
And it's Trump who made this his own war, instead of running away from it and blaming it Biden. Can't say it was his smartest move.
Peace isn't possible until Russia's security concerns are addressed and Zelensky is gone. More sanctions won't matter and will just hasten the end of the dollar as reserve currency.
There is no path to victory for Ukraine. Only two question remain to be answered. How much land will Ukraine lose is the first. How many will die to answer question one is the second.
As I said, there is no path to victory for Ukraine. Even NATO intervention won't change that. All it will change is how many die. Russia can out produce both Europe and the US with munitions and has a shorter supply line. We can't keep the large numbers of troops required supplied in high intensity combat over a four or five thousand mile contested supply line.
Obviously, you're missing something somewhere. The "war of attrition" is being waged not with Ukraine, but with NATO (the West). In both military and economic terms, "indecisive Russia" has shaken the very foundations of the "cohesive coalition of European (American) volunteers" in three years. I wonder who encouraged them to commit this provocation, promising a "lightning victory" over Russia in 2022?! With his latest massive attacks on Ukraine, Putin is forcing the West (not Ukraine!) to take retaliatory measures: to continue supplying weapons or abandon Zelensky. Or stop juggling words and take a direct part in the war with Russia. This is where Europe's "cohesion" and its desire to shed ITS own blood, rather than the blood of Ukrainians, should become even more evident. We are approaching the beginning of something important and decisive...
We keep hearing that NATO is out of everything from catnip to burrito coverings, we've been hearing that for years now, but NATO keeps on doubling down, never taking any opportunity to deescalate.
If we consider that the West switched all levers of influence and pressure from brute military force to financial and economic ones, then we understand why, after the collapse of the USSR, NATO countries reduced their budgets for military needs. Having entangled the world with their financial institutions, they allowed themselves to enslave any country without any restrictions, shifting the role of a policeman to insurance, investment companies and banks.Now they have delegated the "settlement" of conflicts of their interests to operations using small "expeditionary forces", "stealth aircraft", "Tomahawks", RQ-4 and other expensive toys.(There was no point in keeping a dirty and thieving group in Afghanistan if you could just freeze accounts and impose sanctions.) They remain convinced of the universality of the impact of "sanctions" on Russia or Mozambique, without bothering to produce conventional 155-mm shells. I do not underestimate the capabilities of NATO countries in military matters, but you must agree that now (today, tomorrow) everything depends on the degree of readiness for confrontation from either side.Is NATO really ready to do without other people's "cannon fodder" and sit in the trenches?
If Drump is smart he'll just declare all parties to the Ukraine War are insane, and therefore the US is walking away. If he's dumb (>75% chance) he'll threaten to escalate, though, in reality the US has no real cards to play that can effect the outcome of this conflict.
If the attempt on Vladimir Putin were real, we wouldn’t have learned about it. Real intelligence tends not to receive confirmation from the opposing side. My guess is that the Kremlin leaked a fake itinerary to the Brits, who couldn’t resist the mother of all game changers. They took the bait and are now royally screwed. Escalating in such an insane fashion without consultation is completely unacceptable from our point of view. It also gives the lie to the so called Coalition of the Willing’s peace initiative.
If my speculation is correct, I expect the Trump administration to once again totally sideline the Brits and the Europeans. Can’t trust them. We have to settle this mess with the Russians one-on-one.
the mother of all game changers? If they manage to shot down the helicopter, today, we would see a very different picture in Ukraine. Unless someone believes that the successor president would be Mahatma Gandhi.
Today, I see Merz has, among other escalations, removed any limitations on where German munitions can be used against Russia, and has decided no longer to publicize what munitions are being supplied (in other words, Ukraine will ger Taurus missiles).
Once again, europe escalates with total impunity.
Were Trump serious about making peace (he is not), he need only tell the europeans that if Russia hits them back, they are on their own.
Trump has not done so.
Of course, had Russia prosecuted this war with appropriate seriousness, nobody would be talking about attacking Russia.
At this point, I doubt Russia would do anything in retaliation. Since the war started, the rest of the world has been arming Ukraine and the Russians haven't moved up/achieved their goals nor have they struck any arms convoys, etc. So methinks the Russians don't have too much faith in themselves and are gun shy (for whatever reason) about a bigger war.
Maybe not just after Merz promised weapons to Ukraine Germany may not even have, their military minister said, No we are not sending such weapons to Ukraine. Not everyone in Germany is an idiot with a death wish.
Don't kid yourself. How many times have the germans said "no more!" only to send more?
Do I really have to remind you of the kabuki that goes on with every escalation, how this is crazy, reckless, suicidal to well, maybe if someone else goes to just the tip to "anyone who does not support this is in league with Putin!
Meanwhile, the german parliament is passing a law forbidding the reopening of Nordstream. The Americans commit an act of war on germany, and the german response is that bad slaves deserve their beatings.
True, they are a basketcase, have been for sometime. The English plan of getting your two perceived greatest historical enemies, Germany and Russia, to destroy themselves lives on. You would think Germany would have wised up by now.
On delivery of weapons, they may have run out for all we know and will have to wait on Trump to sell them some rubbish while proclaming the US is no longer supplying said weapons.
It's not an easy road being a vassal state, and Germany's status is especially grim.
Putin will not agree to a cease fire until Russia physical occupies the entirety of the eastern Russian speaking provinces of Ukraine plus a small buffer zone. A cease fire would mean peace keeping troops which would be all the excuse the EU needs to insert NATO troops into Ukraine. Why would Putin agree to that. The whole concept is just a neo-con ruse to get NATO involved and the war to continue.....sheer folly.
I think the real border is the Eastern border of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 16/17th century. It still includes Chernigov but not Odessa, Kharkov, Sumy, the Crim and 4 regions already annexed.
I think the stop line will be the Dnieper River. The buffer zone will be between the Dnieper River and the four regions already annexed. Odessa may be included also.
As far as existential threats go, Southern Finland now it is really in NATO is just as existential as Ukraine. Or maybe even more so. Does that mean Russia needs to occupy Southern Finland? No, of course not. If Finland were out of NATO and neutral again... Same for the real Ukraine West of the Eastern (and Southern) Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth border. Demilitarization, no NATO and neutrality would be perfectly OK.
Ukraine has recently been flinging drone swarms toward Moscow, either to score "media hits" or to degrade Moscow's air defense network in preparation for a long range missile attack (which we now know might be possible since Ukraine was taken off the leash on this just yesterday). It has been suggested that what Russia is labeling a Putin assassination attempt might have been no more than Putin's helicopter coming upon one such drone swarm unexpectedly. Who knows?
Trump could end the war pretty quickly if he'd just follow through on his rhetoric and walk the US away from this mess entirely, pulling all US support on the way out. Ukraine would likely not be so intransigent in negotiations if it believed the US was truly prepared to do this immediately if those negotiations fail to show significant progress very soon. I think the big problem here is that Trump is either schizophrenic, or he believes he can keep both sides off balance by acting as though he is. But another likely possibility is that he has no real strategy and is just making it up as he goes along, banking on his winning personality to eventually save the day. 😉
Any ceasefire will lead on to more Western military deliveries to Ukraine and maybe to entry on the Western military forces into Ukraine. This is hardly in Russian interest. Since Zelensky hs said that no truce will stop Ukrainian ”revenge attacs”, we are dealing with terrorist state thai is already and will be in the future a direct and present security threath to Russia. Therefore it must be neutralized - that leaves zero chace to present days Ukraine’s future existency. Ukraina will surrender unconditionally or it will be destroyed.
The Trump moment of decision is getting closer and closer.
Until now he tried to have it both ways, negociating with Russia while keeeping the Ukraine victory project alive. Maybe he did it because he belived the Kellog promises that Russia was weak and ready to settle at bargain price, maybe because he did not want to confront the mighty alliance of Zelensky, UE and GB, Graham and establishment Republicans plus the Democrats, likely because of both...
In geopolitical terms, the US faces 3 main fronts, Russia in Europe, Iran in the Middle East and China. China alone is enough, so every force the US spent on the two others weakens it there. This is why Trump seeks peace and negociations elsewhere.
Through a mix of delusion of grandeur about US power, local and personnal interests of leaders, maybe a silent race among allies to use US power while it lasts, US allies and what could be termed the imperial faction at home, all conspire to derail this agenda.
Potentially, a renewed push on every front as the imperialists drive towards, will risk defeat on all three of them. And a catastrophic end of the US era, instead of a softer landing towards multipolarity.
Trump will have to decide wether he will take the easy route back to Biden imperalism, bearing responsability for the big crash, if it happens. Orm if he is ready to take on almost everyone else, in an epic political battle, to deliver the policy he campaigned for...
"If the Russian claims are true, and if there was a drone attack on President Putin's helicopter in an attempt to kill him, then a line has been crossed and the Bennett-arranged deal to protect Zelensky has disintegrated."
Considering Russian reluctance to actually fight, from the Ukrainian perspective, it's a no-lose.
“Trump complained that Russia's actions are undermining the negotiating process which, in Trump's view, is supposed to be arranging a ceasefire.”
The reason for the drone attack on Kiev? A promised response to the drone attack on Moscow/Russia by Kiev. That needs to be stated and understood. It would not have happened if the Ukrainians did not strike first.
Fair has nothing to do with it. This is one of the misconceptions that the Russian leadership persists in ignoring.
The only thing that matters is winning.
"The only thing that matters is winning."
Exactly so. From the beginning, Putin should have conducted the war for a quick and decisive victory. Now he is mired in a shit show, with too many casualties on both sides.
Russia did not use enough overwhelming force, and then, when the negotiations in Istanbul (predictably) failed, Russia failed to tighten the noose.
Russia's problem is that they do not want to make war on what they still see as their sadly misguided brethren. They do not want to destroy the West but to join it.
This only causes Russia's enemies to smell blood.
Judging from Putin comments, he felt Russia was not sufficiently mobilized to take on NATO, and therefore wanted to slow walk the war until military industries and armed forces recruitment were fully cranked up. He also has to mollify allies; though by now they fully understand what Russia is up against and the restraint the Kremlin has shown.
In any case, the West is weary, frustrated and out of ammo... so maybe Putin was right all along.
Sounds like post-hoc rationalizing. Had Russia used adequate force from the outset, the point would be moot.
For the first time in Russian history, they have no real desire to unite with or to be accepted by the West. The legacy of Catherine and Peter has faded. I think they now see themselves as a somewhat different civilization. They would like to do business with the Europeans, but that is no longer that important to them. They don't trust the West, and why should they? And they probably don't need it anymore, not even as an ideological beacon.
When I lived in Ukraine (2004-2012) there was a fashion to denigrate all things western. The moment membership in The Club was dangled out, all was forgotten, all was forgiven.
When Putin realized the negotiations were deadlocked, he should have ended the war quickly and decisively.
Hi Dmitriy, do you have any links to EL news articles reporting this most recent drone attack on Moscow/regions? I assume you mean May 23 attack reported in Ru here https://news.mail.ru/incident/66252687/
For instance:
https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/prognosis-ukraine?r=3uqqaf&utm_medium=ios
Yeah right, but nothing in the mainstream. MSM completely one-sided. Yet Ukr shells border Ru villages w/cluster munitions. Someone I know sent me a first-hand video today
https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/the-apprentice-president?r=3uqqaf&utm_medium=ios
Alastair Crooke is getting a lot of attention after his discussion with the Judge about Trump's recent off-the-wall comments with reference to Russia strikes in Kiev in which the President angrily claimed that Putin is going crazy and killing women and children— and no, he hadn't heard about the drone strikes which appeared to be targeting Putin's helicopter.
Remarkable
I am positive that there are several sites on Substack that would agree to show your video to their subscribers.
From that Substack post by Julian:
“That said, all those old people in front of the cameras – doesn't look good. They are not POWs! Fortunately for Kiev, Western media won't show the pictures. But the Russian media will – inflaming the public even more.”
See? The western media…..
Olga, yes, that is exactly what I meant. Note that the article states “three days in a row”, not just one day. You’ve found a good article that describes everything in detail. That is something that you just can’t find in the Western media. And that is why I read Substack. Basically what actually happens during the SMO in the Ukraine is accurately translated and summarised in English. I can propose some contacts on Substack (in English) that I read and compare to what is available in the Russian media. There are also several military reporters on Telegram (in Russian) that provide current and accurate information on what is going on on the front. Please let me know!
Give Trump a couple of days, he'll change his mind again.
Anyway, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. The only question is whether the War On Russia or the War On Iran takes priority for now.
He is acting increasingly unhinged. I guess that is what happens when you put a 78 year old narcissist in charge.
Better than the vegetable put in place for 4 years just before.
Not really. They are all just figureheads. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Let's just assume the hypothetical - Trump won 2020, but died shortly thereafter, and was succeeded by Pence. Do you really believe Pence would have done the same policy as Trump? Or as Biden? Or had developed his own policy?
Basically, yes. There would be less playing stupid games, less switching sides continually, but we'd get to the same place in the end.
Yes…we are still on the same page. “Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.” He will do as he is told.
You don't have that many pressure points after pursuing 4 different charges in 4 different courts plus subjecting someone to at least 2 assassination attempts.
People read WAY too much into Trump's tweets and utterances. We know that he has a tendency to listen to the last person he talked to and blurt whatever that opinion is out. We know that he's easily manipulated and not the brightest bulb in our ceiling. We know that he's a consummate bullshitter.
Putin's met the bastard. I'm sure he's figured that out by now.
It has already been decided by the MIC and Big Oil that there will be no war on Iran, but the former certainly has an interest in prolonging the Ukraine War for as long as possible in order to maximize their profits. The only question is how much Russia decides it can afford to let them get away with.
Since Putin has no control over Trump’s schedule, the neocons find him easy to manage.
Crazy.. hardly, Putin is the most cognisant and lucid of world leaders, sadly Trump cannot see the irony in his stated rationale for making such an utterance, whatever Putin’s aero forces might have initiated against the Azov Western contrived and supported Nazi’s, pales into insignificance contrasted to Trumps and Americans efforts at the wilful killing, almost it seems gleeful, killing and injury inducing let alone the completely destructive efforts undertaken against civilians in Gaza, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, or…. who can or will ever forget the past U.S bombing efforts of civilians in Hiroshima, The Balkans, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, in other words bloviator in Chief, Trump ought check his comments before raging and hitting the keyboard, it’s truly embarrassing and screams of hypocrisy, a hypocrisy born of ignorance … perhaps more likely of arrogance, totally misplaced and definitely in need of being called out… the world is tiring of this rhetorical nonsense, words not supported actions, of double speak, another reason the world populace has tuned out America and everything American… good luck with forcing onshoring and then selling to the World the crap to be manufactured as like.y it will be, intially anyways, stuff made by an incompetent unskilled workforce, on that metric alone wallets offshore will remain well and truly closed, ag products… no thanks not until your predilection and love affair for the liberal use of chemicals, many of them banned but approved for use in the U.S because of lobbying, monies exchanged, despite many of the chemicals approved harmful to and for human consumption… bottom line the U.S needs the World, the World has realised it doesn’t need nor has to rely on the U.S, markets abound outside of the U.S, at the present rate and continuing along this double speak road, the U.S will find itself isolated, a self inflicted outcome… the global south nations wanting not a bar of it, nothing, not even the soft power of its music and movies now considered immoral, a threat to stability.. culture that is profanity and inculcated with sex to the point of being almost x rated, now considered by many to be simply.. unsuitable…the U.S and the West will be the true outliers, looking in, feeding off of the crumbs falling from the Multipolarity table, a true reversal… karma, maybe, but perhaps just what ought and should be…afterall who in their right mind wants to invite trouble, known troublemakers into their midst, best to pay them respect but to keep them distant, well distant a whole new reality, a whole new world beckons, BRICS+ multipolarity, a new paradigm long awaited much wanted, bring it on… just saying
Kia Kaha (stay strong) From New Zealand
One theory is that Trump is looking for a Nobel Peace Prize to his resume by ending an ongoing conflict (after all, they gave one to Obama for nothing) . The Israeli/Gaza War is too hard and intractable. The 'claim' that he calmed down the Indian/Pakistani conflict does not have the gravatas with the Nobel Committee, so the easiest war to solve would appear to be the Russo-Ukraine War. But as Murphy's Law of Combat has it: ' In War everything is easy, but the easy things are hard'. Hence anything that mitigates his 'attempts' at finding peace attracts his ire. To be fair he also had a go at Zelensky in his language and attitude.
If we analyse the latest tit-for-tat drone/missile attacks, we see the differing philosophies of the protagonists. The Ukrainians seem to be firing strategic level drones into Russia indiscrimantly in the main, without specific strategic targets in the hopes of a photo-op of damage/destruction to somewhere in Moscow or other cities. However this is counter productive as not only does it waste valuable resources Ukraine cannot afford, but studies from WWII and beyond show that such antics stiffen the resolve of the targeted civilian population. So even if Putin wanted to make concessions his population might not allow him.
The Russians on the other hand are firing at specific military and industrial targets (like the massive Antonov Factory in Kiev that makes drones) within Ukraine, with the majority of drones being used to soak up AA fire/enable targeting of AA sites. This fits a specific pattern and plan, and the Russians are continuing with it. Are civilians hit - yes, from working at these targeted sites (therefore under the laws of war legitimate casualties), inadvertent collateral damage from the fallout of drones/missiles hit by AA or from AA that failed to hit targets or Russian errors in targeting.
This war is intractable to negotiation. Russia does not trust the West having been disappointed many times before when there have been treaties. Ukraine will not give up as long as its manpower, the materiality of the West or willpower are able to last. In the end this war will be decided on the battlefield, and that will dictate the peace. Trump will have very little to do with it.
I genuinely thought Trump understood the real nature of both state to state diplomacy and war.
Russia is fighting a war. And it is fighting that war to achieve victory. War involves killing people and destroying things until your adversary submits. This is a primal truism since the dawn of civilization.
It’s unclear if there are any adults left in either America or Europe.
Darwin awaits.
"I genuinely thought Trump understood the real nature of both state to state diplomacy and war."
You are joking, right? It has been obvious for at least eight years that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated, that loudmouth from the corner bar, transplanted into the Oval Office.
Trump behaved like a toddler who experiences powerlessness.
Truth be told, the Russians let him talk, negotiate and rant. However, the war will be fought to its conclusion. I think everyone knows this, but Trump.
And it's Trump who made this his own war, instead of running away from it and blaming it Biden. Can't say it was his smartest move.
Didn't some even call him a Peace president? lol
Peace isn't possible until Russia's security concerns are addressed and Zelensky is gone. More sanctions won't matter and will just hasten the end of the dollar as reserve currency.
There is no path to victory for Ukraine. Only two question remain to be answered. How much land will Ukraine lose is the first. How many will die to answer question one is the second.
"There is no path to victory for Ukraine."
The plan ever always only was for NATO to intervene, followed by the Americans. There never was any other plan.
That plan continues apace.
As I said, there is no path to victory for Ukraine. Even NATO intervention won't change that. All it will change is how many die. Russia can out produce both Europe and the US with munitions and has a shorter supply line. We can't keep the large numbers of troops required supplied in high intensity combat over a four or five thousand mile contested supply line.
Russian dithering and indecision have convinced NATO otherwise. It's obvious that Russia does not want this war, while NATO is howling for blood.
Obviously, you're missing something somewhere. The "war of attrition" is being waged not with Ukraine, but with NATO (the West). In both military and economic terms, "indecisive Russia" has shaken the very foundations of the "cohesive coalition of European (American) volunteers" in three years. I wonder who encouraged them to commit this provocation, promising a "lightning victory" over Russia in 2022?! With his latest massive attacks on Ukraine, Putin is forcing the West (not Ukraine!) to take retaliatory measures: to continue supplying weapons or abandon Zelensky. Or stop juggling words and take a direct part in the war with Russia. This is where Europe's "cohesion" and its desire to shed ITS own blood, rather than the blood of Ukrainians, should become even more evident. We are approaching the beginning of something important and decisive...
We keep hearing that NATO is out of everything from catnip to burrito coverings, we've been hearing that for years now, but NATO keeps on doubling down, never taking any opportunity to deescalate.
If we consider that the West switched all levers of influence and pressure from brute military force to financial and economic ones, then we understand why, after the collapse of the USSR, NATO countries reduced their budgets for military needs. Having entangled the world with their financial institutions, they allowed themselves to enslave any country without any restrictions, shifting the role of a policeman to insurance, investment companies and banks.Now they have delegated the "settlement" of conflicts of their interests to operations using small "expeditionary forces", "stealth aircraft", "Tomahawks", RQ-4 and other expensive toys.(There was no point in keeping a dirty and thieving group in Afghanistan if you could just freeze accounts and impose sanctions.) They remain convinced of the universality of the impact of "sanctions" on Russia or Mozambique, without bothering to produce conventional 155-mm shells. I do not underestimate the capabilities of NATO countries in military matters, but you must agree that now (today, tomorrow) everything depends on the degree of readiness for confrontation from either side.Is NATO really ready to do without other people's "cannon fodder" and sit in the trenches?
If Drump is smart he'll just declare all parties to the Ukraine War are insane, and therefore the US is walking away. If he's dumb (>75% chance) he'll threaten to escalate, though, in reality the US has no real cards to play that can effect the outcome of this conflict.
If the attempt on Vladimir Putin were real, we wouldn’t have learned about it. Real intelligence tends not to receive confirmation from the opposing side. My guess is that the Kremlin leaked a fake itinerary to the Brits, who couldn’t resist the mother of all game changers. They took the bait and are now royally screwed. Escalating in such an insane fashion without consultation is completely unacceptable from our point of view. It also gives the lie to the so called Coalition of the Willing’s peace initiative.
If my speculation is correct, I expect the Trump administration to once again totally sideline the Brits and the Europeans. Can’t trust them. We have to settle this mess with the Russians one-on-one.
the mother of all game changers? If they manage to shot down the helicopter, today, we would see a very different picture in Ukraine. Unless someone believes that the successor president would be Mahatma Gandhi.
Today, I see Merz has, among other escalations, removed any limitations on where German munitions can be used against Russia, and has decided no longer to publicize what munitions are being supplied (in other words, Ukraine will ger Taurus missiles).
Once again, europe escalates with total impunity.
Were Trump serious about making peace (he is not), he need only tell the europeans that if Russia hits them back, they are on their own.
Trump has not done so.
Of course, had Russia prosecuted this war with appropriate seriousness, nobody would be talking about attacking Russia.
At this point, I doubt Russia would do anything in retaliation. Since the war started, the rest of the world has been arming Ukraine and the Russians haven't moved up/achieved their goals nor have they struck any arms convoys, etc. So methinks the Russians don't have too much faith in themselves and are gun shy (for whatever reason) about a bigger war.
Oh, it's obvious that Russia really does not want this war, and is desperately seeking a way out.
That only encourages the West to press on, like a barroom bully looking for any pretext to beat his victim up.
Europe empties its arsenals, Russia smiles.
While europe keeps on escalating, never seeming to empty, in spite of this brilliant plan to soak up NATO munitions with Russian bodies.
This is just retcon.
Maybe not just after Merz promised weapons to Ukraine Germany may not even have, their military minister said, No we are not sending such weapons to Ukraine. Not everyone in Germany is an idiot with a death wish.
Don't kid yourself. How many times have the germans said "no more!" only to send more?
Do I really have to remind you of the kabuki that goes on with every escalation, how this is crazy, reckless, suicidal to well, maybe if someone else goes to just the tip to "anyone who does not support this is in league with Putin!
Meanwhile, the german parliament is passing a law forbidding the reopening of Nordstream. The Americans commit an act of war on germany, and the german response is that bad slaves deserve their beatings.
True, they are a basketcase, have been for sometime. The English plan of getting your two perceived greatest historical enemies, Germany and Russia, to destroy themselves lives on. You would think Germany would have wised up by now.
On delivery of weapons, they may have run out for all we know and will have to wait on Trump to sell them some rubbish while proclaming the US is no longer supplying said weapons.
It's not an easy road being a vassal state, and Germany's status is especially grim.
https://www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2011/06/05/germany-still-under-the-control-of-foreign-powers/
We keep hearing over and over that NATO is out of weapons, money, etc.. but they keep escalating all the same, and refuse to take any offramp.
Germany is of no threat to england. The simple answer is that europeans like being slaves.
Germans would say "Leeres Geschwätz". Merz is quaking in his boots re potential Russian retaliation.
Of course, this is the inevitable result of Russian dithering.
Putin will not agree to a cease fire until Russia physical occupies the entirety of the eastern Russian speaking provinces of Ukraine plus a small buffer zone. A cease fire would mean peace keeping troops which would be all the excuse the EU needs to insert NATO troops into Ukraine. Why would Putin agree to that. The whole concept is just a neo-con ruse to get NATO involved and the war to continue.....sheer folly.
Dick Minnis removingthecataract.substack.com
I think the real border is the Eastern border of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 16/17th century. It still includes Chernigov but not Odessa, Kharkov, Sumy, the Crim and 4 regions already annexed.
I think the stop line will be the Dnieper River. The buffer zone will be between the Dnieper River and the four regions already annexed. Odessa may be included also.
AT 13:05 in this excellent Duran video, Medvediv shows what the borders will be absent a Ukaine settlement now :)
It does not matter what you think. It only matters what Russia thinks is an existential threat or not.
As far as existential threats go, Southern Finland now it is really in NATO is just as existential as Ukraine. Or maybe even more so. Does that mean Russia needs to occupy Southern Finland? No, of course not. If Finland were out of NATO and neutral again... Same for the real Ukraine West of the Eastern (and Southern) Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth border. Demilitarization, no NATO and neutrality would be perfectly OK.
Ukraine has recently been flinging drone swarms toward Moscow, either to score "media hits" or to degrade Moscow's air defense network in preparation for a long range missile attack (which we now know might be possible since Ukraine was taken off the leash on this just yesterday). It has been suggested that what Russia is labeling a Putin assassination attempt might have been no more than Putin's helicopter coming upon one such drone swarm unexpectedly. Who knows?
Trump could end the war pretty quickly if he'd just follow through on his rhetoric and walk the US away from this mess entirely, pulling all US support on the way out. Ukraine would likely not be so intransigent in negotiations if it believed the US was truly prepared to do this immediately if those negotiations fail to show significant progress very soon. I think the big problem here is that Trump is either schizophrenic, or he believes he can keep both sides off balance by acting as though he is. But another likely possibility is that he has no real strategy and is just making it up as he goes along, banking on his winning personality to eventually save the day. 😉
Any ceasefire will lead on to more Western military deliveries to Ukraine and maybe to entry on the Western military forces into Ukraine. This is hardly in Russian interest. Since Zelensky hs said that no truce will stop Ukrainian ”revenge attacs”, we are dealing with terrorist state thai is already and will be in the future a direct and present security threath to Russia. Therefore it must be neutralized - that leaves zero chace to present days Ukraine’s future existency. Ukraina will surrender unconditionally or it will be destroyed.
Russia has welcomed all sanctions because they have been made stronger by them.
The Trump moment of decision is getting closer and closer.
Until now he tried to have it both ways, negociating with Russia while keeeping the Ukraine victory project alive. Maybe he did it because he belived the Kellog promises that Russia was weak and ready to settle at bargain price, maybe because he did not want to confront the mighty alliance of Zelensky, UE and GB, Graham and establishment Republicans plus the Democrats, likely because of both...
In geopolitical terms, the US faces 3 main fronts, Russia in Europe, Iran in the Middle East and China. China alone is enough, so every force the US spent on the two others weakens it there. This is why Trump seeks peace and negociations elsewhere.
Through a mix of delusion of grandeur about US power, local and personnal interests of leaders, maybe a silent race among allies to use US power while it lasts, US allies and what could be termed the imperial faction at home, all conspire to derail this agenda.
Potentially, a renewed push on every front as the imperialists drive towards, will risk defeat on all three of them. And a catastrophic end of the US era, instead of a softer landing towards multipolarity.
Trump will have to decide wether he will take the easy route back to Biden imperalism, bearing responsability for the big crash, if it happens. Orm if he is ready to take on almost everyone else, in an epic political battle, to deliver the policy he campaigned for...
smart and intelligent assessment
"If the Russian claims are true, and if there was a drone attack on President Putin's helicopter in an attempt to kill him, then a line has been crossed and the Bennett-arranged deal to protect Zelensky has disintegrated."
Considering Russian reluctance to actually fight, from the Ukrainian perspective, it's a no-lose.