Ukraine is where the Confederate States of America were in late 1864/early 1865. The CSA were overwhelmed by Federal numbers, Federal industrial capacity, and Federal logistics. Union military leadership was battle hardened and experienced. The writing was on the wall.
So it is with Ukraine in the fall of 2025.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so there is no reason for NATO to get directly involved in this fight. Of course, that is the rational, realist view of this situation. None of the key decision makers in NATO, the EU, UK, Germany, or France are rational or realistic.
Any NATO intervention has no chance of success without US participation. And even with US participation the probability of failure is very high. Take a look at the US military record of success post-World War II. Is that a track record that inspires confidence?
Trump had an opportunity to walk away from this mess in the first month of his presidency. He didn't take it. His inflated ego is now invested in this game. And many of his national security advisors are just as irrational and unrealistic as the Western Europeans.
And the rest of us are along for the ride.........
The issue is not Trump or Zelensky but the British Crown, the super multigenerational criminal animals who control the livery companies inside the City of London and Chatham House. Those drone provocations mentioned in the article are British intelligence coercing the US Army into hot war with Russia. They have an army of Band of thebes like Eton and Aldenham groomed children through anal fuckology and mind control to become his majesty's holy molly prime ministers like the cad and mountebank Boris Johnson and the sodomite old Jimmy Saville rent boy Keir Starmer to control that agenda like programmed automatons. Sunak hadnt undergone that grooming and refused to be a war PM so he was forced out. The British plebs are too sex spectacles and soccer addled to do anything about it.
Mike Benz has talked about the war in Ukraine as being about energy. Though I have not heard him connect the war in Ukraine to the Abraham Accords and Gaza.
I'm trying to wrap my mind around that possibility of what you are suggesting.
Are you are familiar with Mike Benz? If so, do you and he agree?
Is the idea to keep Europe as a customer of US LNG, either by continuing the war in Ukraine, or ending it in such a way that the US supplies LNG to Europe and not Russia?
How does Qatar play into this? Do they want co-supply LNG to Europe along with the US? If the US wants to take the European LNG market from Russia, why would the US share it with Qatar?
A new energy world order is emerging based on LNG…and Qatar and America and to a lesser degree Australia will be the dominant players. So natural gas is already more important than oil and so Saudi Arabia understands their oil reserves are now a depreciating asset. Russia was the big piped gas exporter and they realize that countries prefer the flexibility of LNG imports even if it comes with a higher price.
So Saudi Arabia and Russia are no longer the most important energy exporters as now it is Qatar and America. So Hamas and Putin both acted out of desperation due to this emerging new energy world order even if it wasn’t directly tied to LNG. Btw, anything Qatar does is only at the discretion of America because Qatar only has 300,000 citizens and so they need our protection unlike Saudi Arabia and Russia which have much larger populations than Qatar. Also, Qatar will throw a billion dollars around like it’s no big deal to help America achieve an objective.
But . . .but . . . they are not allowed to take territory through military conquest. It is spelled out very clearly in International Law. Surely the International Police will arrest them and send them to International Prison.
I think that the corruption scandal currently engulfing Zelenskyy’s government gives Trump a good opportunity to walk away from this messy conflict, which is what he seems to want to do.
If he frames his decision as being made to put an end to the theft of American taxpayers’ money it would be difficult for his domestic opponents to mount a credible case against it.
It's no coincidence that the corruption scandal, which Yermak tried to block in July, emerges now as Syrsky, Yermak's replacement for popular rival Zaluzhny, fails again at Pokrovsk.
Zaluzhny, supported by NATO and the Ukrainian opposition, is now packing his bags in London, and will soon be negotiating with Russia.
Zaluzhny packing his bags and negotiating... that would be an intelligent option. Unfortunately as Stephen mentioned Western intelligence agencies here appear more to tell their bosses what they think they want to hear. Imagine a cross between: Blackadder Goes Forth, 'Allo 'Allo and Yes Minister. In this case I guess the Brisish Airmen from Allo Allo are providing the intelligence.
This is all so predictable. Im nobody but this needless slaughter was always going to end this way. The weatern neocons were high on their own supply and forgot history. Russia has a history of wars of defence. Russia does not have a history of military invasion bit defending against them. And once they feel under threat they fight like a bear and don’t give up. This war only ever had two possible outcomes. Russia wins on its terms or the west escalates to nuclear Armageddon and we all die. What a waste.
Russia does not have to be invaded to be defeated. There is already great unrest in Russia. It will collapse from the inside out if its oil/gas exports can be sufficiently curtailed and supplies to citizens can be cut off.
Please cite the evidence you have for the "great unrest" that exists in Russia.
Please explain how Russian oil and gas exports can be "sufficiently curtailed," such that it will cause the Kremlin to capitulate in a war that it sees as existential.
There can't be unrest. Putin's Russia holds more "political prisoners" jailed than at any time since the height of the Cold War. And journalists, executives and elites have a habit of dying violently.
Assuming your claims are true, perhaps you could explain how this purported situation in Russia is any different from how things work in the West?
The country with the most prisoners BY FAR relative to its population size is the USA. Not even the most 'authoritarian' countries imprison their citizens at America's rate. As for business elite 'committing suicide' under suspicious circumstances, are you really unable to think of examples of it happening in the West?
Let's discuss the unrest issue as adults. Unrest in ANY country isn't tolerated. Governments exist precisely in order to keep unrest at a minimum. That's what its citizens want and expect. It's the social compact everywhere. But for giving up that freedom, what the citizens also expect is that the resultant security and stability translate into greater prosperity for all. They want genuine payback in an improving life. Countries that succeed in providing an improving life for everyone, even if there is financial inequality, don't get restive.
Objectively speaking there's far more unrest occurring in the USA than in Russia, if you look at large scale social and political issues. I mean American legislators can't even get it together to keep their government running, that's how bad it is.
All countries, all human social structures are authoritarian. The country or the social structure is the authority and everyone is expected to follow the rules it makes. How well that structure delivers equal prosperity for all is what matters at the end of the day.
Vatniks refer to Wikipedia when it suits them - dismiss it when convenient. That article lists dozens of sources documents, including homegrown. Every one of those people died, many violently.
America has already taken Gazprom’s EU market share and that was Putin’s golden goose. China will never be as dumb as America and get addicted to foreign energy…if they import energy they will do it from a position of strength.
At America’s low point in 2008 we were importing massive quantities of oil and about to import natural gas from Qatar. Biden made us energy dominant but 2008/09 happened and we just got super lucky the fracking revolution happened and made America strong again. China will never allow themselves to get in a situation like America got itself in 2008 invading another country and flushing $3 trillion down the toilet for $1 trillion worth of oil.
Seems like you are unintentionally promoting the idea that China would never allow Russia be defeated militarily in present circumstances. Russia has replaced the E.U. market with China. (and then some actually)
For Russia the cut of export of gas to Germany was actually beneficial. The issue is most commentators and journalist has zero idea of supply chains and real business.
Russia exported raw natural gas to Germany, then Germany processed it into petrochemicals and sell it for x5/x10 the price.
And Russian bought back part of those petrochemicals lol
Now they were forced to do great investment in petrochemicals plants and process their gas themselves, selling a far more valuable process.
Similar thing happened with fertilisers and pharmaceutical APIs
This is the reason why the trade balance of Russia remains strongly positive even with reducing export of gas and with the extra imports necessary for the war. They simply have escalated in the supply chain
Russia’s economy is not strong. And Trump attempted to get a Philly refinery to rebuild after a massive fire and they refused because in America downstream oil and gas industry is not seen as a growth industry. Especially when most predicted China’s gasoline and diesel consumption has peaked or is about to peak. So if Russia just spent billions developing that industry they will never recoup the investment. Btw, America could made diesel and kerosene from natural gas but nobody is going to invest in that infrastructure now for the same reasons. The only infrastructure anyone is investing in LNG infrastructure.
So according you your genius people are going to stop using plastic, glue…. Because with gas you get petrochemicals, and with petrochamicals you get polymers.
Then you use and sell that polymers.
Or do you really think the world is going to stop using polymers?
Of course Rusia will recover the investment, even just with its domestic market is a win to produce it instead of buying from outside
About the economy of Russia not being strong. It is beyond factual that the economy or Russia is strong. Level of sanctions they survived and still economically growing these years. Put to shame most countries in the world if not all
I'm sorry that you're not keeping up with current events and are uninformed. I am not, however, going to do your homework for you.
I did not say that the Kremlin will capitulate to the war, I said that it would collapse internally. Again, do your own homework if appropriate pressure is applied.
I'm not asking you to do my homework, I'm asking you to provide the source for your claim that there is "great unrest" in Russia. Where is this "great unrest" taking place? State the people that are involved and how they are causing your claimed uproar.
Please also explain your rational for stating that Russia won't just abandon the war, but will collapse as a nation if oil exports can be "sufficiently curtailed." You should also explain the mechanism by which you propose to make this happen.
Russia has already lost and can’t win. The goal was never to take control of worthless territory with old people that need food and heat…the goal was to take Kiev and remove Zelensky and install a puppet like in Belarus.
With Putin as a criminal leader and millions of slaves he made from the Russians, he could "win", but in History this war will stay as a criminal war against their own people because Russians and Ukrainians are the closest Slaves - relatives on this earth.
Right now, it's more likely the US will. implode. Nobody is buying those dirty treasuries anymore and the deficite isn't shrinking, and on top of that the tarrifs are illegal. How is Trump going to fix this?
Soviet Russia, and Putin, a soviet KGB-ist, has a history of invasions. Remember 1956- Hungary invasion; later - Prague invasion; or Chechen Republic invasion, and so on... What are you talking about?! The whole Soviet system was built on invasions, in personal life, in artistic life, in everybody's life, if you have your own opinion, and not theirs. How many millions died in their concentration camps, thanks to the former KGB, and continue to die now under Putin? Poor Ukraine! Wanted to live independently, and what result? Putin quickly destroys the small country, his own co-brothers, and you decide that England is guilty, or some other country, but not criminal Putin. Ha-ha -ha...
This is a very silly reductionist and naive argument. For a start the Soviets LIBERATED the countries from the Nazi German occupation. To list the Chechen republic as an invasion shows utter ignorance.
Russia has all but defeated NATO. I was in St Petersburg and Moscow in August and January last year. There was no evidence whatsoever from the people and my many Russian friends that there is any unrest. Putin has approval ratings that western leaders can only dream of.
You are a very shortsighted man. Putin's FSB arrested so many people, and the rest are his slaves. The best Russian intelligentsia left the country when he started the war. Economically, Russia is appalling; only big cities are OK, but the rest of Russia suffers terribly.
I am shocked by somebody's opinion that Trump is going away for supporting Ukraine, and agree with that. Ukraine is a mass of young and not-so-young people, exhausted, who fight for their country. They also suffer because of the abuse and corruption of their government, and you don't want to support the Ukrainian people? It is so easy for you ot decide what is good and that is bed on your discussion on the paper.
Bryen writes for gung ho putinist warmongers, and for russo-envious magas. He also attracts some "anti imperialist" tankie types. He no longer even bothers to push back against the delusional copium some of them spew.
So, 8,000 of his subscribers are all "Russo-envious magas" and "anti imperialist" tankie types? Although I see some contradiction in the last type, because Putin, as the former communist leaders, is an Imperialist type, which is why he started the war with Ukraine in the first place. He wants to establish the border of the former USSR.
The "super lefty, anti-empire" embrace of one of the most repressive, authoritarian, ultra right, expansionist regimes on Earth is impressive for what they happily overlook. But disinformation is one of the few things Putin's Russia is still good at.
These days most of his commenters seem to be vatniks and West=evil, EU=degeneracy types. The former tend to be delusional and/or putin-tools. His magoids have largely moved on. The same 15 or 20 accounts write 90%+ of his comments.
8K subscribers? Maybe. Thre's an easy way to inflate that number.
Russia's four day blitzkrieg has turned into a four year slog with a million Russians "out of service". Gas is unavailable in some regions and lines to get limited quantities of gas are long in the major cities. Russians are not happy about the situation and unrest is growing. Sales of oil to China are at discounted rates so profit is severely restricted.
Ukranians, on the other hand, are resigned because they know what would happen to them if they capitulated or were defeated. Ukraine is successfully using internally produced, long range missiles with thousand pound warheads that are shutting down ports and refineries. Because of the restrictions put on by Trump, Russia is not able to get the parts it needs for repairs. Drones are destroying trains and railroad infrastructure. There is no need for the US to get more involved other than upping our supply of defensive weapons that can deal with the swarms of drones and missiles Russia sends every couple days.
As to Russia's nuclear threat, that is not a concern. Russia has already ignored crossed red lines because they know the result of going there. Russia will not use their nukes unless they face an existential threat which is not going to happen. Nobody is going to invade Russia with the goal of conquest. If this continues, and I see no end to it, Russia will fall from internal pressures, not external.
I would argue that it will be a fatal mistake for the West NOT to act to stop Russian aggression. Russia is badly weakened and the proper application of financial pressure would bring Putin to his knees. Gas and Oil exports are Russia's weak spot and Ukraine has badly damaged those industries and the infrastructure that feeds it.
With the ruin and destruction of Japan, over 6-million military casualties (>2M dead) and about 1.5-million civilian casualties (>600K dead). Also, about 600K and 100K Korean and Taiwanese slave soldier casualties, respectively. Then humiliating defeat and occupation.
They could have withdrawn from China and Indochina, waited it out and and collapsed (economically and militarily), or provoke a war that most of the militarists knew they would not be able to win.
Wow, what a revelation, ex many past reports I’ve read written by you, I thought Russia was being spanked, dealt to… what a revelation, the long known truth finally stated, as it should be, congratulations though bet you did it hard… it’s great to see the realities being reported by the naysayers… better late than never…just saying
Wasn't Stephen unsure a few weeks ago about Prokrovsk and Russia's ability to take it?
If this war has shown me something it is that most Western analysts (with the exception of Jacques Baud) don't understand Russia. They don't understand how it lives and breathes, what is feels and values and how it fights.
Because of that, Ukraine is losing. The West and Ukraine still don't understand that this has never been about territory in the first place. Holding on to cities by all means until everyone is dead is just plane stupid. The Ukrainian counter offensive? Plane stupid.
Let's say it as it is, NATO doesn't know how to fight a real war.
There are many analysts that do, they are just not part of the MSM club. What is now happening now they have predicted for several years. Quite a few of these people are on Substack.
Stephen is a welded on US fanboy, as would be expected from his background. Having said that I am sure his patriotism is sincere as is what he has written here, it’s just a bit late in the day.
Westerners provoke wars, fuel them, while convincing themselves that they are on the side of justice.
I start with the war in Ukraine. In the West, the Ukrainian war is perceived as a Russian invasion, and I admit that it was the Russian army that entered Ukraine. But the historical reality is that the true causes of the conflict are the expansion of NATO towards Russia, through Ukraine, and the war that the Ukrainians themselves are waging, instigated by the West, against the Russians in the Donbas. It is true that, for the Russians, this war is defensive. It is obvious to me that the Americans and Europeans are the aggressors, having arrived within a thousand kilometers of Moscow. That is the objective situation. The fascinating thing is that these aggressors believe they are being attacked and that they are forced to defend themselves. There is something crazy about our situation in Europe.
Bush/Cheney and Blair did…but Biden removed the Trump sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and was fine with Russia making billions of euros from the EU. And remember that Putin was engaged in military operations beyond his borders which is why Trump implemented the sanctions. So Biden was fine with Putin making billions and growing the Russian empire but he made clear Putin could go too far…which Putin did.
NS2 was rendered useless the day Putin invaded Ukraine. But Biden removed the Trump sanctions on NS2 and so he was fine with Gazprom exporting gas to Germany so long as Putin didn’t expand his military operation beyond what was already going on in 2021. Biden wanted everything to return to normalcy after Covid and it was Putin who acted out of desperation because Ukraine was growing closer to the West and away from Russia.
This article is a fair assessment of the situation. The big problem for NATO, other than lack of experience and preparation, if they were to intervene would be bringing their publics along with them. There is no one in 'Joe Public' willing to die for Odessa or Kiev, and plenty understand that if NATO engages the Russians direct this could go nuclear.
However, the other problem is that the leaders of the US and NATO would rather engage overseas rather than have to deal with their dire and mounting domestic problems. Perhaps they see a possible war a way out of their current inability to find domestic solutions. After all, much of Europe went into a deep dive decline circa 2022 when they cut themselves off from cheap Russian energy, therefore politicians could hold out the promise of restoring this through 'victory' in war, rather than negotiation.
Contemporary European political & strategic 'thought', this time from former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik
“We have to work on the no-fly zone that has been declared over Ukraine since February 25. We can do it. Just a couple of months ago, Britain and the US provided air support to Israel. We can do the same for Ukraine. For this, we only need planes that will shoot down Russian planes bombing Ukrainian cities”, Ilves said.
“For me, what is happening in Ukraine is a war. They have not invaded our territory, but they are burning down the largest trade hub in Europe. Let’s already admit that we are being attacked.
European politicians will be able to honestly admit what we are facing only after something like the 9/11 attacks happen. After that, European politicians will no longer be able to say that they don’t want to do anything,” the Estonian politician said.'
An even more striking example is the Gaza genocide. The genocide was initiated by the State of Israel—another historical fact—but, in my opinion, the State of Israel is being remotely controlled by the United States. Without American weaponry and so many other forms of support, the Israeli army would not have been able to do what it did, just as the Ukrainian army, without American weaponry, would not have been able to wage its war of aggression in Donbas.
And once again, what is astonishing, beyond the violence and the war, is the apparent good conscience of Americans and Israelis after 60,000, 70,000, 80,000 Palestinians have been killed.
We are currently facing a very interesting problem of historical understanding. The United States, for a long time, and Trump more recently, have encouraged, perhaps even decided upon, Israeli actions. During his first presidency, Trump established the American embassy in Jerusalem. Reading the writings of Trump's supporters reveals a genuine veneration for the State of Israel. Trump was the first to envision Gaza transformed into an uninhabited resort. Trump is responsible for the attempted genocide. But herein lies the problem.
Very recently, Trump decided that it was over. He ordered Israel to cease hostilities. He demanded that Netanyahu apologize to Qatar, which had been bombed. He imposed a truce without difficulty, from which we can draw two conclusions. First, proof that it is indeed the United States waging the war in the Middle East, since it controls both the brakes and the accelerator. That is the first point.
Second, and this is extraordinary, an American president who one day promotes genocide, the next day demands the Nobel Peace Prize because he has changed his mind and established a truce. This radical change illustrates, or rather, demonstrates, a complete lack of moral sense. The total absence of morality, derived from a non-existent religion, allows one to desire genocide one day and the Nobel Peace Prize the next.
This is the choice facing Western leaders. So far they've heightened up the rhetoric, hoping the threat would force Russian compromise.
It did not worked.
Trump could go or not. European leaders, in order to force his hand in this suicidal endeavor, might go alone thinking he won’t be able to let them down, even if he doesn't want.
It is possible the extremist on both sides of the Atlantic calculate that even arrived at the beginning of nuclear exchanges, both sides will stop and agree on a draw, saving them fom defeat. This gambling Humanity for their own sake...
Ukraine is where the Confederate States of America were in late 1864/early 1865. The CSA were overwhelmed by Federal numbers, Federal industrial capacity, and Federal logistics. Union military leadership was battle hardened and experienced. The writing was on the wall.
So it is with Ukraine in the fall of 2025.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so there is no reason for NATO to get directly involved in this fight. Of course, that is the rational, realist view of this situation. None of the key decision makers in NATO, the EU, UK, Germany, or France are rational or realistic.
Any NATO intervention has no chance of success without US participation. And even with US participation the probability of failure is very high. Take a look at the US military record of success post-World War II. Is that a track record that inspires confidence?
Trump had an opportunity to walk away from this mess in the first month of his presidency. He didn't take it. His inflated ego is now invested in this game. And many of his national security advisors are just as irrational and unrealistic as the Western Europeans.
And the rest of us are along for the ride.........
The issue is not Trump or Zelensky but the British Crown, the super multigenerational criminal animals who control the livery companies inside the City of London and Chatham House. Those drone provocations mentioned in the article are British intelligence coercing the US Army into hot war with Russia. They have an army of Band of thebes like Eton and Aldenham groomed children through anal fuckology and mind control to become his majesty's holy molly prime ministers like the cad and mountebank Boris Johnson and the sodomite old Jimmy Saville rent boy Keir Starmer to control that agenda like programmed automatons. Sunak hadnt undergone that grooming and refused to be a war PM so he was forced out. The British plebs are too sex spectacles and soccer addled to do anything about it.
What else do you like about the British kleptocracy?
You've clearly not seen the pic of Edmund Rothschild telling Charles off.
Trump has basically walked away. And good on him for doing that
No he hasn’t…you clearly don’t understand what LNG is. The Abraham Accords and Gaza and Ukraine all have to do with fracking and Qatar and LNG.
Mike Benz has talked about the war in Ukraine as being about energy. Though I have not heard him connect the war in Ukraine to the Abraham Accords and Gaza.
I'm trying to wrap my mind around that possibility of what you are suggesting.
Are you are familiar with Mike Benz? If so, do you and he agree?
Is the idea to keep Europe as a customer of US LNG, either by continuing the war in Ukraine, or ending it in such a way that the US supplies LNG to Europe and not Russia?
How does Qatar play into this? Do they want co-supply LNG to Europe along with the US? If the US wants to take the European LNG market from Russia, why would the US share it with Qatar?
Thanks.
A new energy world order is emerging based on LNG…and Qatar and America and to a lesser degree Australia will be the dominant players. So natural gas is already more important than oil and so Saudi Arabia understands their oil reserves are now a depreciating asset. Russia was the big piped gas exporter and they realize that countries prefer the flexibility of LNG imports even if it comes with a higher price.
So Saudi Arabia and Russia are no longer the most important energy exporters as now it is Qatar and America. So Hamas and Putin both acted out of desperation due to this emerging new energy world order even if it wasn’t directly tied to LNG. Btw, anything Qatar does is only at the discretion of America because Qatar only has 300,000 citizens and so they need our protection unlike Saudi Arabia and Russia which have much larger populations than Qatar. Also, Qatar will throw a billion dollars around like it’s no big deal to help America achieve an objective.
Good questions!
Hardly. There's too much money to be grifted in that part of the world, and he still longs for Putin's micropenis.
But . . .but . . . they are not allowed to take territory through military conquest. It is spelled out very clearly in International Law. Surely the International Police will arrest them and send them to International Prison.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.
I think that the corruption scandal currently engulfing Zelenskyy’s government gives Trump a good opportunity to walk away from this messy conflict, which is what he seems to want to do.
If he frames his decision as being made to put an end to the theft of American taxpayers’ money it would be difficult for his domestic opponents to mount a credible case against it.
It's no coincidence that the corruption scandal, which Yermak tried to block in July, emerges now as Syrsky, Yermak's replacement for popular rival Zaluzhny, fails again at Pokrovsk.
Zaluzhny, supported by NATO and the Ukrainian opposition, is now packing his bags in London, and will soon be negotiating with Russia.
Zaluzhny packing his bags and negotiating... that would be an intelligent option. Unfortunately as Stephen mentioned Western intelligence agencies here appear more to tell their bosses what they think they want to hear. Imagine a cross between: Blackadder Goes Forth, 'Allo 'Allo and Yes Minister. In this case I guess the Brisish Airmen from Allo Allo are providing the intelligence.
This is all so predictable. Im nobody but this needless slaughter was always going to end this way. The weatern neocons were high on their own supply and forgot history. Russia has a history of wars of defence. Russia does not have a history of military invasion bit defending against them. And once they feel under threat they fight like a bear and don’t give up. This war only ever had two possible outcomes. Russia wins on its terms or the west escalates to nuclear Armageddon and we all die. What a waste.
Only a vatnik would parrot such absurd Russian nationalistic mythology.
Russian national mythology. Russia has indeed been invaded a few times, but Russia has also LAUNCHED MANY MAJOR WARS of CONQUEST and EXPANSION.
Contiuous imperial expansion from the 16tt through 19th centuries.
Conquest of Kazan, Astrakhan, and other Tatar states.
Gradual colonization of Siberia (involving wars with indigenous peoples).
Expansion into the Caucasus through protracted wars in Chechnya, Dagestan and Circassia.
Wars of conquest in Central Asia in the 19th century.
Wars with the Ottoman Empire - numerous offensives seeking territory and influence.
Repeated invasions and partitions of Poland.
1939: Invasion of eastern Poland in collaboration with Nazi Germany.
1939-40: Invasion of Finland.
1940: Occupation and annexation of the Baltic states.
1956: Soviet tanks in Hungary.
1968: Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia.
1979: Invasion of Afghanistan.
1990-1992: Transnistria
1990s-2000s: Chechen wars (internal but extremely destructive).
2008: Russian forces invaded Georgia. occupying over 20% of the country.
2014: Annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine.
2022: Full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This is not the behavior of a state that “does not have a history of military invasion.” Spare me your "protection if Russian language" bullshit.
You are the one parroting western Russophobic propaganda. Again to list the liberation of nazi occupied states is nonsense.
"Russia has a history of wars of defence. Russia does not have a history of military invasion but defending against them."
Too funny. Lay off the vodka, "Sean." I would list out 15 or 20 russian/soviet wars of aggression, but you're not worth my time.
No, if you are going to respond pray list these wars. Otherwise you are just an internet troll
См. выше. А, ну да. Это же всё «западная русофобская пропаганда». Это стандартный ответ, соответствующий рекомендациям для местных сучек.
Russia does not have to be invaded to be defeated. There is already great unrest in Russia. It will collapse from the inside out if its oil/gas exports can be sufficiently curtailed and supplies to citizens can be cut off.
Please cite the evidence you have for the "great unrest" that exists in Russia.
Please explain how Russian oil and gas exports can be "sufficiently curtailed," such that it will cause the Kremlin to capitulate in a war that it sees as existential.
There can't be unrest. Putin's Russia holds more "political prisoners" jailed than at any time since the height of the Cold War. And journalists, executives and elites have a habit of dying violently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022?wprov=sfla1
Assuming your claims are true, perhaps you could explain how this purported situation in Russia is any different from how things work in the West?
The country with the most prisoners BY FAR relative to its population size is the USA. Not even the most 'authoritarian' countries imprison their citizens at America's rate. As for business elite 'committing suicide' under suspicious circumstances, are you really unable to think of examples of it happening in the West?
Let's discuss the unrest issue as adults. Unrest in ANY country isn't tolerated. Governments exist precisely in order to keep unrest at a minimum. That's what its citizens want and expect. It's the social compact everywhere. But for giving up that freedom, what the citizens also expect is that the resultant security and stability translate into greater prosperity for all. They want genuine payback in an improving life. Countries that succeed in providing an improving life for everyone, even if there is financial inequality, don't get restive.
Objectively speaking there's far more unrest occurring in the USA than in Russia, if you look at large scale social and political issues. I mean American legislators can't even get it together to keep their government running, that's how bad it is.
All countries, all human social structures are authoritarian. The country or the social structure is the authority and everyone is expected to follow the rules it makes. How well that structure delivers equal prosperity for all is what matters at the end of the day.
Wikipedia is your source? I'd trust them about as much as Ukrainian reports about battle "victories"...
Vatniks refer to Wikipedia when it suits them - dismiss it when convenient. That article lists dozens of sources documents, including homegrown. Every one of those people died, many violently.
America has already taken Gazprom’s EU market share and that was Putin’s golden goose. China will never be as dumb as America and get addicted to foreign energy…if they import energy they will do it from a position of strength.
Gene Frenkle
America is not dependent on foreign energy. China absolutely is dependent of foreign energy. All China can do is manage that dependency.
At America’s low point in 2008 we were importing massive quantities of oil and about to import natural gas from Qatar. Biden made us energy dominant but 2008/09 happened and we just got super lucky the fracking revolution happened and made America strong again. China will never allow themselves to get in a situation like America got itself in 2008 invading another country and flushing $3 trillion down the toilet for $1 trillion worth of oil.
Seems like you are unintentionally promoting the idea that China would never allow Russia be defeated militarily in present circumstances. Russia has replaced the E.U. market with China. (and then some actually)
The golden goose lives again.
For Russia the cut of export of gas to Germany was actually beneficial. The issue is most commentators and journalist has zero idea of supply chains and real business.
Russia exported raw natural gas to Germany, then Germany processed it into petrochemicals and sell it for x5/x10 the price.
And Russian bought back part of those petrochemicals lol
Now they were forced to do great investment in petrochemicals plants and process their gas themselves, selling a far more valuable process.
Similar thing happened with fertilisers and pharmaceutical APIs
This is the reason why the trade balance of Russia remains strongly positive even with reducing export of gas and with the extra imports necessary for the war. They simply have escalated in the supply chain
Russia’s economy is not strong. And Trump attempted to get a Philly refinery to rebuild after a massive fire and they refused because in America downstream oil and gas industry is not seen as a growth industry. Especially when most predicted China’s gasoline and diesel consumption has peaked or is about to peak. So if Russia just spent billions developing that industry they will never recoup the investment. Btw, America could made diesel and kerosene from natural gas but nobody is going to invest in that infrastructure now for the same reasons. The only infrastructure anyone is investing in LNG infrastructure.
So according you your genius people are going to stop using plastic, glue…. Because with gas you get petrochemicals, and with petrochamicals you get polymers.
Then you use and sell that polymers.
Or do you really think the world is going to stop using polymers?
Of course Rusia will recover the investment, even just with its domestic market is a win to produce it instead of buying from outside
About the economy of Russia not being strong. It is beyond factual that the economy or Russia is strong. Level of sanctions they survived and still economically growing these years. Put to shame most countries in the world if not all
I'm sorry that you're not keeping up with current events and are uninformed. I am not, however, going to do your homework for you.
I did not say that the Kremlin will capitulate to the war, I said that it would collapse internally. Again, do your own homework if appropriate pressure is applied.
I'm not asking you to do my homework, I'm asking you to provide the source for your claim that there is "great unrest" in Russia. Where is this "great unrest" taking place? State the people that are involved and how they are causing your claimed uproar.
Please also explain your rational for stating that Russia won't just abandon the war, but will collapse as a nation if oil exports can be "sufficiently curtailed." You should also explain the mechanism by which you propose to make this happen.
In other words, you don't have any reliable sources.
Russia has already won and cannot be defeated
Russia has already lost and can’t win. The goal was never to take control of worthless territory with old people that need food and heat…the goal was to take Kiev and remove Zelensky and install a puppet like in Belarus.
"Russia has already lost and can't win".
I'm sure that line won't age well.
It’s true today. A Putin puppet will not rule in Kiev like in Minsk.
I guess we'll see if they actually attempt to take Kyiv.
поздравляю, русский членосос!
With Putin as a criminal leader and millions of slaves he made from the Russians, he could "win", but in History this war will stay as a criminal war against their own people because Russians and Ukrainians are the closest Slaves - relatives on this earth.
Right now, it's more likely the US will. implode. Nobody is buying those dirty treasuries anymore and the deficite isn't shrinking, and on top of that the tarrifs are illegal. How is Trump going to fix this?
Cutting off supplies of domestic oil products inside Russia is about as easy as cutting off domestic oil supplies in the U.S.
Really? Ive been to Russia last year and the previous year, i have friends there, and i see no signs whatsoever of internal unrest.
Another MSM comic book aficionado
🤣
Soviet Russia, and Putin, a soviet KGB-ist, has a history of invasions. Remember 1956- Hungary invasion; later - Prague invasion; or Chechen Republic invasion, and so on... What are you talking about?! The whole Soviet system was built on invasions, in personal life, in artistic life, in everybody's life, if you have your own opinion, and not theirs. How many millions died in their concentration camps, thanks to the former KGB, and continue to die now under Putin? Poor Ukraine! Wanted to live independently, and what result? Putin quickly destroys the small country, his own co-brothers, and you decide that England is guilty, or some other country, but not criminal Putin. Ha-ha -ha...
This is a very silly reductionist and naive argument. For a start the Soviets LIBERATED the countries from the Nazi German occupation. To list the Chechen republic as an invasion shows utter ignorance.
Russia has all but defeated NATO. I was in St Petersburg and Moscow in August and January last year. There was no evidence whatsoever from the people and my many Russian friends that there is any unrest. Putin has approval ratings that western leaders can only dream of.
It's been some time since I was in Russia but that was my experience too. Putin was very popular.
You are a very shortsighted man. Putin's FSB arrested so many people, and the rest are his slaves. The best Russian intelligentsia left the country when he started the war. Economically, Russia is appalling; only big cities are OK, but the rest of Russia suffers terribly.
When were you last in Russia?
I am shocked by somebody's opinion that Trump is going away for supporting Ukraine, and agree with that. Ukraine is a mass of young and not-so-young people, exhausted, who fight for their country. They also suffer because of the abuse and corruption of their government, and you don't want to support the Ukrainian people? It is so easy for you ot decide what is good and that is bed on your discussion on the paper.
Bryen writes for gung ho putinist warmongers, and for russo-envious magas. He also attracts some "anti imperialist" tankie types. He no longer even bothers to push back against the delusional copium some of them spew.
So, 8,000 of his subscribers are all "Russo-envious magas" and "anti imperialist" tankie types? Although I see some contradiction in the last type, because Putin, as the former communist leaders, is an Imperialist type, which is why he started the war with Ukraine in the first place. He wants to establish the border of the former USSR.
The "super lefty, anti-empire" embrace of one of the most repressive, authoritarian, ultra right, expansionist regimes on Earth is impressive for what they happily overlook. But disinformation is one of the few things Putin's Russia is still good at.
These days most of his commenters seem to be vatniks and West=evil, EU=degeneracy types. The former tend to be delusional and/or putin-tools. His magoids have largely moved on. The same 15 or 20 accounts write 90%+ of his comments.
8K subscribers? Maybe. Thre's an easy way to inflate that number.
Russia's four day blitzkrieg has turned into a four year slog with a million Russians "out of service". Gas is unavailable in some regions and lines to get limited quantities of gas are long in the major cities. Russians are not happy about the situation and unrest is growing. Sales of oil to China are at discounted rates so profit is severely restricted.
Ukranians, on the other hand, are resigned because they know what would happen to them if they capitulated or were defeated. Ukraine is successfully using internally produced, long range missiles with thousand pound warheads that are shutting down ports and refineries. Because of the restrictions put on by Trump, Russia is not able to get the parts it needs for repairs. Drones are destroying trains and railroad infrastructure. There is no need for the US to get more involved other than upping our supply of defensive weapons that can deal with the swarms of drones and missiles Russia sends every couple days.
As to Russia's nuclear threat, that is not a concern. Russia has already ignored crossed red lines because they know the result of going there. Russia will not use their nukes unless they face an existential threat which is not going to happen. Nobody is going to invade Russia with the goal of conquest. If this continues, and I see no end to it, Russia will fall from internal pressures, not external.
I would argue that it will be a fatal mistake for the West NOT to act to stop Russian aggression. Russia is badly weakened and the proper application of financial pressure would bring Putin to his knees. Gas and Oil exports are Russia's weak spot and Ukraine has badly damaged those industries and the infrastructure that feeds it.
How did it work when FDR used oil to bring Japan "to its knees"?
With the ruin and destruction of Japan, over 6-million military casualties (>2M dead) and about 1.5-million civilian casualties (>600K dead). Also, about 600K and 100K Korean and Taiwanese slave soldier casualties, respectively. Then humiliating defeat and occupation.
They could have withdrawn from China and Indochina, waited it out and and collapsed (economically and militarily), or provoke a war that most of the militarists knew they would not be able to win.
Very appropriate initials, PR...
Another MSM fantasy comic aficionado
Stop reading MSM comics
It would be fatal for us all if the west attacks Russia.
I think oil exports are 30% of Russia's economy.
Those long range drones that Kyiv is using don't really cause that much damage to oil facilities and is often quickly repaired.
But go ahead and urge everyone into WW3 and nuclear death.
Stand Ukraine Strong 💪 🇺🇦
Wow, what a revelation, ex many past reports I’ve read written by you, I thought Russia was being spanked, dealt to… what a revelation, the long known truth finally stated, as it should be, congratulations though bet you did it hard… it’s great to see the realities being reported by the naysayers… better late than never…just saying
Wasn't Stephen unsure a few weeks ago about Prokrovsk and Russia's ability to take it?
If this war has shown me something it is that most Western analysts (with the exception of Jacques Baud) don't understand Russia. They don't understand how it lives and breathes, what is feels and values and how it fights.
Because of that, Ukraine is losing. The West and Ukraine still don't understand that this has never been about territory in the first place. Holding on to cities by all means until everyone is dead is just plane stupid. The Ukrainian counter offensive? Plane stupid.
Let's say it as it is, NATO doesn't know how to fight a real war.
There are many analysts that do, they are just not part of the MSM club. What is now happening now they have predicted for several years. Quite a few of these people are on Substack.
Stephen is a welded on US fanboy, as would be expected from his background. Having said that I am sure his patriotism is sincere as is what he has written here, it’s just a bit late in the day.
Westerners provoke wars, fuel them, while convincing themselves that they are on the side of justice.
I start with the war in Ukraine. In the West, the Ukrainian war is perceived as a Russian invasion, and I admit that it was the Russian army that entered Ukraine. But the historical reality is that the true causes of the conflict are the expansion of NATO towards Russia, through Ukraine, and the war that the Ukrainians themselves are waging, instigated by the West, against the Russians in the Donbas. It is true that, for the Russians, this war is defensive. It is obvious to me that the Americans and Europeans are the aggressors, having arrived within a thousand kilometers of Moscow. That is the objective situation. The fascinating thing is that these aggressors believe they are being attacked and that they are forced to defend themselves. There is something crazy about our situation in Europe.
Bush/Cheney and Blair did…but Biden removed the Trump sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and was fine with Russia making billions of euros from the EU. And remember that Putin was engaged in military operations beyond his borders which is why Trump implemented the sanctions. So Biden was fine with Putin making billions and growing the Russian empire but he made clear Putin could go too far…which Putin did.
So you're saying the USA had no problem with Nord Stream until Russia invaded Ukraine?
I suppose:
27 Jan 2022 - Victoria Nuland - "If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward."
7 Feb 2022 - President Biden - "If Russia invades... then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
I think they always wanted to end Nord Stream.
President Biden removed the sanctions on Nord Stream in May 2021, but reimposed them in Feb 2022.
NS2 was rendered useless the day Putin invaded Ukraine. But Biden removed the Trump sanctions on NS2 and so he was fine with Gazprom exporting gas to Germany so long as Putin didn’t expand his military operation beyond what was already going on in 2021. Biden wanted everything to return to normalcy after Covid and it was Putin who acted out of desperation because Ukraine was growing closer to the West and away from Russia.
This article is a fair assessment of the situation. The big problem for NATO, other than lack of experience and preparation, if they were to intervene would be bringing their publics along with them. There is no one in 'Joe Public' willing to die for Odessa or Kiev, and plenty understand that if NATO engages the Russians direct this could go nuclear.
However, the other problem is that the leaders of the US and NATO would rather engage overseas rather than have to deal with their dire and mounting domestic problems. Perhaps they see a possible war a way out of their current inability to find domestic solutions. After all, much of Europe went into a deep dive decline circa 2022 when they cut themselves off from cheap Russian energy, therefore politicians could hold out the promise of restoring this through 'victory' in war, rather than negotiation.
Contemporary European political & strategic 'thought', this time from former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik
“We have to work on the no-fly zone that has been declared over Ukraine since February 25. We can do it. Just a couple of months ago, Britain and the US provided air support to Israel. We can do the same for Ukraine. For this, we only need planes that will shoot down Russian planes bombing Ukrainian cities”, Ilves said.
“For me, what is happening in Ukraine is a war. They have not invaded our territory, but they are burning down the largest trade hub in Europe. Let’s already admit that we are being attacked.
European politicians will be able to honestly admit what we are facing only after something like the 9/11 attacks happen. After that, European politicians will no longer be able to say that they don’t want to do anything,” the Estonian politician said.'
https://tinyurl.com/mwk328x6
Nothing about the literal money stealing and corruption in Ukraine or how zelensky tried to bury that or how he now wants to restart negotiations.
The US is well out of it. Not one red cent more
Keep wishing…maybe one day your wish will come true!! 😉
An even more striking example is the Gaza genocide. The genocide was initiated by the State of Israel—another historical fact—but, in my opinion, the State of Israel is being remotely controlled by the United States. Without American weaponry and so many other forms of support, the Israeli army would not have been able to do what it did, just as the Ukrainian army, without American weaponry, would not have been able to wage its war of aggression in Donbas.
And once again, what is astonishing, beyond the violence and the war, is the apparent good conscience of Americans and Israelis after 60,000, 70,000, 80,000 Palestinians have been killed.
We are currently facing a very interesting problem of historical understanding. The United States, for a long time, and Trump more recently, have encouraged, perhaps even decided upon, Israeli actions. During his first presidency, Trump established the American embassy in Jerusalem. Reading the writings of Trump's supporters reveals a genuine veneration for the State of Israel. Trump was the first to envision Gaza transformed into an uninhabited resort. Trump is responsible for the attempted genocide. But herein lies the problem.
Very recently, Trump decided that it was over. He ordered Israel to cease hostilities. He demanded that Netanyahu apologize to Qatar, which had been bombed. He imposed a truce without difficulty, from which we can draw two conclusions. First, proof that it is indeed the United States waging the war in the Middle East, since it controls both the brakes and the accelerator. That is the first point.
Second, and this is extraordinary, an American president who one day promotes genocide, the next day demands the Nobel Peace Prize because he has changed his mind and established a truce. This radical change illustrates, or rather, demonstrates, a complete lack of moral sense. The total absence of morality, derived from a non-existent religion, allows one to desire genocide one day and the Nobel Peace Prize the next.
Defeat or WW3 ?
This is the choice facing Western leaders. So far they've heightened up the rhetoric, hoping the threat would force Russian compromise.
It did not worked.
Trump could go or not. European leaders, in order to force his hand in this suicidal endeavor, might go alone thinking he won’t be able to let them down, even if he doesn't want.
It is possible the extremist on both sides of the Atlantic calculate that even arrived at the beginning of nuclear exchanges, both sides will stop and agree on a draw, saving them fom defeat. This gambling Humanity for their own sake...
Sanity calls for quiting this Ukrainian madness.