Ukraine Attacks TurkStream Pipeline

Europe Could Face an Economic Nightmare

The Ukrainians sent nine drones to attack a natural gas compressor station in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia. The compressor station was part of the TurkStream pipeline. All the drones were shot down. There was some minor damage, but the compressor station is operating normally.

The pipeline runs from Russia to Turkey. It starts from Russkaya compressor station near Anapa in Russia's Krasnodar Region, crossing the Black Sea to the receiving terminal at Kıyıköy. Some gas flows onwards to the European Union.

The pipeline has two lines with a total capacity of 1.11 trillion cu ft of natural gas. The first line supplies Turkey and the second line allows the transport of natural gas further, to South East and Central Europe. The European countries primarily receiving gas from the TurkStream pipeline are Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Romania; with Hungary and Serbia being the main beneficiaries due to their close ties with Russia.

Aerial view of the Russkaya gas compression station in the Krasnodar region of Russia that is the starting point of the TurkStream gas export pipeline across the Black Sea. Photo: GAZPROM TRANSGAZ KRASNODAR

Meanwhile Russia’s contract for the transit of its gas across Ukraine expired on December 31 last year and Kyiv refused to consider a new deal. Ukraine’s decision was supported by the European Commission, even though the lost imports are equivalent to 5% of European demand. A key report says that "In 2024, Russian gas reached Europe via three routes: transit through Ukraine (30%), via Turkey and the Turkstream pipeline (31%) and as LNG (39%). "

LNG deliveries come primarily from the US and Russia (with Qatar soon to join in). Neither the US or Russia can increase LNG deliveries to make up for the cessation of transport through Ukraine. Had the Ukrainian attack on TurkStream been successful, over 60% of Europe's imported natural gas supplies would have been cut off.

LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas, and there are problems with transport and transmission overland. Europe has also imposed methane regulations that will impact the use of natural gas and require methane mitigation technology that is not yet available. The destruction of most of the Nordstream pipelines (3 of the 4 destroyed), the Ukrainian shut down, and Ukraine's attacks on TurkStream, could very well destroy Europe's ability to keep its factories running and heating homes and businesses. The economic impact has already driven Germany into a recession and helped force the collapse of the Scholz coalition government. Germany also shut down its nuclear facilities, trying to rely instead on renewables and by burning more coal (even though Germany is supposed to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2035).

( Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture-alliance/Newscom)

What is hard to understand is what Ukraine is trying to achieve? They have repeatedly attacked nuclear power stations, including on their own territory, that if successful could have sent radiation poisoning wafting through Ukraine and Europe, as well as parts of Russia. Cutting off gas deliveries and attacking pipelines that feed Europe could send Europe into a death spiral, but the Masters of Kiev either don't care, or alternatively are trying to demonstrate to the Europeans that they better help bail out Ukraine or they will bite the hand (hard) that feeds them.

So far there has been neither peek nor boo from the EU or from Euro-capitals, either they are ignoring the risk or afraid to say anything. Certainly the EU was complicit in the Ukrainian gas cutoff, but no pushback, at least nothing in public. Washington, for its part, can benefit from selling LNG, but those sales can't supply enough to compensate for the shutdowns, real and potential, and blowback from it could fracture NATO even faster than the Ukraine war.