Ukraine: Has the US Lost Yet Another Proxy War? with Stephen Bryen
Ukraine: Has the US Lost Yet Another Proxy War? with Stephen Bryen
Bill Walton show
I was a guest on Bill Walton’s show. Here is the video and Bill’s summary of the show’s content.
If the video link does not work, please go here:
https://thebillwaltonshow.com/videos/ukraine-has-the-us-lost-yet-another-proxy-war-with-stephen-bryen/
While Americans have become preoccupied with other things - the election, the border, the economy - events in Ukraine are spinning out of control. People have been talking hopefully about a ceasefire and a truce. Instead, with a couple of more blunders we could be heading for a World War III.
To learn where this might be headed next, I’m back talking in this episode with my go to guru on all things national security Stephen Bryen - Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy
Some takeaways from our conversation:
The head of NATO Jen Soltenberg’s reckless statements and actions are escalating the situation in Ukraine and increasing the risk of a full-scale war.
The Biden Administration’s objective of regime change in Moscow has failed. Russia seems certain to prevail. At this point, they have few incentives to stop the fighting.
Ukraine has suffered massive casualties, perhaps up to 800,000 killed, and is on its third army. Ukraine President Zelensky is on the way out, we just don’t know how or when.
Sanctions against Russia haven’t worked. China has replaced the European Union as Russia’s top energy buyer and goods supplier, giving Russia both the cash and the manufactures it needs to sustain itself.
Total trade between China and Russia has reached $240 billion in 2023, more than double what it was in 2018. Russia now has become China’s biggest supplier of crude oil, second for coal and third for natural gas.
Stephen predicted that Victoria Nuland would be out as acting Deputy Secretary of State. She resigned this week.
The Biden administration aims to drag the war out as long as possible. Biden doesn't want Ukraine to collapse while he's running for president.
Sending more money to Ukraine for ammunition and armaments doesn’t address its real issues: its lack of manpower and low morale.
Finding a peaceful solution and stabilizing the situation in Ukraine should be our highest priority. Up to now, it hasn’t been.
As always, Stephen provides a deep and informed take on events. Definitely worth a listen.
Listen Here:
Episode 265: Ukraine: Has the US Lost Yet Another Proxy War? with Stephen Bryen
Let us review the record of U.S. military success post-World War II….
Korea (1951 – 1953): After initial setbacks, the US/UN forces advanced to the Yalu River and occupy virtually all of North Korea. The Chinese Communist Forces (CCF) infiltrate three to four hundred thousand ‘volunteers’ into the mountains of North Korea. These were illiterate peasant soldiers who marched and fought on two cups of rice per day. A light infantry army, the CCF had no armor, no heavy artillery, virtually no mechanized transport, few radios, and no air support. They strike and drive the US/UN forces back south of the 38th parallel and take Seoul (Seoul changes hands four times during the war and is utterly destroyed). Eventually the lines of contact stabilize along the 38th parallel and two years of essentially static warfare sets in. As of 2024, still no peace treaty.
Vietnam (196? – 1975): A clear victory for Hanoi, who reunites all Vietnam under a Communist government. A humiliating loss for the U.S. Today the U.S. recruits Communist Vietnam as an ally for our upcoming war with China.
Tehran Embassy Hostage Rescue – Operation Eagle Claw (1980): Operation comes to grief when reduced visibility due to sandstorm results in an aircraft collision at Desert One. Rescue attempt aborted. Failure contributed to Jimmy Carter’s defeat in the 1980 election.
Beirut (1982): Islamic Jihad suicide bomber destroys the USMC barracks at Beirut International Airport, with 241 dead and 150 wounded. Four months later, U.S. forces withdraw from Lebanon and the peacekeeping operation is terminated.
Granada – Operation Urgent Fury (1983): U.S. and ‘allies’ attack Granada to ‘rescue’ U.S. medical students and stop construction of military aircraft-capable airfield by Cuban ‘construction workers.’ U.S. scores a clear win against a combined Granadan/Cuban force of about 2,000 defending this fly-speck country.
Panama - Operation Just Cause (1989 - 1990): U.S. invades Panama to implement regime change and remove Manuel Noriega (a CIA asset who strayed off the reservation) from power. Another clear U.S. win against a fly-speck country.
Iraq/Kuwait – Desert Storm (1992): G.H.W. Bush kept this operation on task, with a well defined objective (drive Iraq forces from Kuwait) and didn’t allow neocon war mongers to talk him into expanding Desert Storm into an invasion of Iraq. U.S. and allied forces had the advantage of fighting a 3rd rate adversary on billiard table topography which allowed optimal use of our total air superiority. Clearly a win.
Somalia (1993 – 1994) – U.S. participates in UN mission to intervene in Somali Civil War. Battle of Mogadishu (Blackhawk Down) takes place in Oct 1993; U.S. casualties include 18 KIA. Bill Clinton orders withdrawal of U.S. forces, which is completed in early 1994.
Afghanistan (2001 – 2021): The U.S. attacks the Taliban to disrupt and punish them for their support of al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden. Mission morphs into effort to create a Jeffersonian Democracy (or so we claimed) in the Hindu Kush. After 20 years we throw in the towel, leave the Taliban in charge, and depart, that departure being a less than elegant operation.
Iraq – Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003 – 2024): Early success got bogged down in a guerrilla war against Iraqi paramilitaries. Democracy-building involved putting the majority Shia in power, who immediately began building bridges with their Shia brethren in Tehran. The most significant geostrategic outcome of this war, with Saddam dead and the Shia in charge in Bagdad, was the greatly enhanced influence of Iran in West Asia, extending from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean littoral (Syria and Lebanon). As of 2024, the Iraqi government wants all remaining US personnel out of Iraq, but we refuse to leave.
This list is admittedly selective, not comprehensive, but it captures the five ‘main events’ post-World War II (Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom, and Afghanistan); a mixed record which (from my point of view) leans towards the stalemate/failure side of the ledger. None of the military forces we engaged could be described as a ‘peer adversary’ (not the CCF in Korea; not the NVA/VC in Vietnam; and not the Iraqis).
Considering this track record, a US/NATO loss in Ukraine shouldn’t surprise us.
Let’s imagine that rather than provoking a kinetic response, the US/NATO had decided to engage the Russians in a negotiated solution to ‘The Ukraine Problem’ in late 2021 when Putin and Lavrov placed the draft of a settlement on the table. Bring some talented old diplomat like Chas Freeman out of retirement and talk to the Russians. I certainly can’t imagine things would have turned out worse than what we have today (especially for all those citizens of Ukraine who are no longer alive).
We’ve coasted on WWII for too long. And while we made an important contribution there, Stalin won that war, not Eisenhower.