"Zelensky has found it necessary (thanks to the US arms delivery shut down) to look like he is advocating a peace framework, but no doubt he will insist on Russia pulling most of its forces out of Ukraine."
Zelenskii has zero interest in ending the war. The war has brought and continues to bring him nothing but benefits. Besides the flood of sweet western cash for him and his cronies to skim, before 2022, he was the authoritarian ruler of a corrupt, nazi-infested hole.
Now we are duly assured that the little twerp is Winston Churchill, Pericles, Sun Tzu, Ashoka, George Washington and Solomon The Wise, all rolled into one, and a certified fashion icon, to boot.
So, naturally, he'll promise anything, as long as it keeps the war going. His kids won't be press ganged into the front lines, he won't be tapping out his personal account for "loans" that will never be repaid.
"... no doubt he [Zelensky] will insist on Russia pulling most of its forces out of Ukraine."
Zelensky would probably have a bigger chance of success "insisting" on a date with Taylor Swift. Russian withdrawal has always been Zelensky's demand -- from Crimea as well as the Donbas -- and that is not going to happen. Zelensky has nothing to offer (Putin, not Taylor Swift). That is what President Trump means by saying Zelensky has no cards. Zelensky will have to take whatever deal he is offered -- or keep on losing his war.
I’m actually not so sure how “hostile” the remaining population would be to an outright collapse of the Ukrainian state.
During Ukraine’s brief existence as a nation-state they did nothing but lie, cheat and steal everything of wealth leaving the Ukrainian people impoverished. Corruption is axiomatic with a destitute population.
Will the remaining people who live in Ukraine have warm and fuzzy memories of what life was like as an “independent” state? Clearly the oligarchs will cry wells of tears… as will the psychotic neo-Nazi brigades (that still exist).
But I think Europe will be shocked at just how pliable the remaining Ukrainian population will be under Russian rule.
The Russians have no interest in ruling the Ukraine.
All they have ever wanted is for the Ukraine to honor the Minsk agreement that Zelensky's predecessor signed. That is all that would be required to end the SMO.
Pan-Slavism broke down with the defeat of Imperial Russia in 1917, so something new had to be invented. Look at Putin as the revival of Pan-Slavism.
The fundamental question is therefore, are there any truth in Pan-Slavism? That translate into, is Pan-Slavism viable? 1. Take a look at the weakness of the East Europe today, 2. Take a look at a map - Siberia is what makes Pan-Slavism viable, and the Moscow had the access to Siberia.
It would be somewhere between “hostile” and “pliable.” 30 years of anti-Russian propaganda served its purpose. Doubt it will be “warm and fuzzy” but Ukrainians still don’t get it that it never was about Ukraine at all. But again, time does heal, or at least softens the bite.
The thing is Stephen, Trump does not need to do a deal AT ALL. This is old school thinking. It’s a new era. Trump can simply pull the plug and walk away and let the Europeans deal with it. The pressure is on Zelensky, Ukraine and Europe to make a deal. Neither Trump nor Putin need a deal. Trump might want a feather in his cap but he doesn’t need it. The clock is ticking on what might be only a 2 year clock and frankly he has more important things to do than bail out Ukraine or Europe.
Thank you, Gilgamech, That is the key point Zelensky & His Euroscum are missing. The Ukraine is not President Trump's problem. From a humanitarian perspective, he would like to see the killing end; but what he really wants is to get back to normal relations with Russia and cut the money we are spending on the military.
The majority of the US public never thinks about the Ukraine. They did not care when Biden ran away from Afghanistan; they won't care if President Trump washes his hands of Zelensky ... as he is apparently doing. Plus, walking away from the Ukraine would send a great message to the Baltic chihuahuas, Taiwan, Finland, and even the UK -- don't pick an unnecessary fight with a larger neighbor and then expect the US to bail you out.
The "war" could have been averted if Zelensky had honored the Minsk agreement signed by his predecessor. There is no need to renegotiate the same terms that Zelensky walked away from.
As such I believe Zelensky is used by the UK (with EU support) against the US. They try to use Zelensky to wreck Trumps peace initiatives. And they will keep doing this. I also believe the Trump administration knows this and will not give in. As such I do not expect any positive outcomes from a 'framework meeting'.
I suspect that Trump already has a solution planned and that will entail not just peace in the Ukraine, but also a political loss for the UK and increasing tensions in (to break apart) the EU. This is why the initiatives and announcements keep rolling out of the white house, to overpower any possible opposition (OODA loop anyone?)
JMHO: Now that Rubio has called the fight in the Ukraine a US-Russia proxy war, it stands to reason that the only way to end this war is for the US to stop providing the Ukraine with the means to keep fighting. They (the US) cannot tell the Ukraine to stop fighting, but they sure can make the odds so bad for the Ukraine that they have no choice but to stop.
More importantly, the intelligence support that the Ukraine needs to target American, German, French, and British munitions on Russia have been cut off, with Starlink remaining by a thread.
"Troops in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine has seized land, are operating without Starlink access and the military is looking to learn from that experience."
Who says that the population of Ukraine will be to Russia? There wasn't much riots in Kherson and zaporhizia oblasts when the Russian forced rolled in in the spring of 2022.
A much bigger problem for the whole of Europe, including Russia, are the hardcore Ukrainian nationalists, and all the western weapons.
Trump is pretty crazy in his unpredictable 'madman' antics.
But he at least saw the contradiction between Zelensky calling Putin an untrustworthy terrorist bent on European then global domination, and saying he wanted to talk about peace.
Trump: Well you have to make peace with the evil terrorist who can't be trusted, dude, or there's no peace and Ukraine completely collapses (because Europe is a joke). I'm waiting.
Zelensky has been uninvited to Riyadh. He won’t be staying for the discussions. Cutting him, the Europeans, and the US opposition out of the process was a very smart move.
The Russians have almost no choice but to continue the war.
1. How else would they remove the radical elements that spread all this hatred against Russia before the war happened? It was the US who financed and supported these radical elements.
Russia needs a purge of these elements in Ukraine.
2. The US sounds friendly today but what will happen if the administration changes in 4 years?
3. Why would Russia want a deal if they are winning. He Ukrainian army finds itself in a firebag today. Their last bargaining chip, if it ever was one, is almost gone.
The US would have to offer them something big and concrete. Any guesses?
Nobody believed me when I said the action would end up in Riyadh after The Comedian screwed up the White House signing. It wouldn’t surprise me a lot if Trump and this fool never meet face-to-face again, and Trump sends Rubio or Vance (or better yet some under-secretary) to sign any agreement…
Anything resembling US boots in Ukraine, or a supply of US arms to make Ukraine strong enough to be a threat, will be unacceptable to Russians. Zelensky does not seem to understand that the objectives that convinced Russia to get involved in a major war are still very much objectives to Russia.
This shows that Ukrainians believe their own propaganda. They are in denial about the actual reasons why Russia went to war, they believe in the myth of Putin's war, Putin's "illegal and unprovoked invasion", Putin's desire to eat Ukrainian children for breakfast, etc. But mostly, Ukrainians are in denial about the content of the Istambul agreement which they torpedoed, following UK/US advice.
Unless Ukrainians can reexamine the last decade of Ukrainian policies, they cannot ever be accepted by Russians as interlocutors in either a bilateral or a multilateral discussion.
.
About the position of Europe: for now, Europe is not seeking to hurt Trump's attempt to negotiate an end to the conflit. Europeans are seeking:
1) to create an illusion of continuous support for Ukraine, as a negotiation posture, believing this may strengthen Ukraine's position in the US-led negotiation;
2) to abuse the US-led diplomatic effort by depicting it as betrayal to their own populations, as to strengthen themselves, to diminish their dependence on the US, and if things turn out really lucky for them, to start standing on their own two feet. They know Trump will cut them loose if necessary or if he feels like it. So they are rushing to take action, and to do so and to convince most of their population, they are getting wild on the anti-Russian, pro-Ukrainian rethoric.
.
But as they do this, Europeans are also keeping the possibility open, to actually try and support Ukraine by themselves on the long run, which means to continue the war. It is not yet guranteed, but they're making sure they can decide to attempt it.
This would mean risking a serious rise in the scale of this war, as Russia would seek to exploit its advantages, especially if the US signals its desire to fully get out of the European quagmire.
Then, Russia would be incited to scale up the conflict and to beat Europe, before Europe can reorganise its industrial production, or decide on a French-based nuclear umbrella, or devise meaningful strategic and tactical mechanisms to bring large forces on its Eastern borders.
.
At the bottom of the issue, there is European leader's absolute incapability to eat their hats. American neocons could not do it either, but they were removed. Europe's parasites are still there, ready to cause much more harm than they already have.
.
And it just doesn't look like European leaders are in control of themselves. They seem to be rushing forward in a quest for goals they won't speak aloud. Macron is seeking to salvage his legacy, from being the most despise leader in recent French history, with a continuous stream of political failures over the years; to being the prophet of Europe's strategic independence. Von der Leyen believes in nothing but her own ego and her own image. And everybopdy else is fueled by fear: Merz wants to look bellicose and to rush rearmament of Germany out of fear of both Russian war and French eladership; Meloni is fearful of both as well but will instead adopt a traditionally Italian withdrawal and closure atittude of self-preservation. Tusk is pursuing the delusion of turning Poland into a full military power, even though he'll remain fully dependent on others' air power for decades. And Baltic leaders are stilol trpped in their dellusions that if they fart loud they'll convince everyone that abusing Russian-speaking communities stranded inside their borders at the end of the USSR is acceptable and can pass as self-defense, even though it is certain to draw Moscow's ire.
"Trump sent a strong warning and message on Friday, writing on Truth Social, "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED."
Of course, there are already far-reaching sanctions on Russia's banking sector, but the threat of more punitive action to come on top of what Biden put in place was accompanied by a warning to get to the table before it's "too late".
Well looks to me that Trump is trying to play both ends off against the middle and looks likely to fail. He may be able to coerce Ukraine but not Russia. In fact I am pretty sure he knows he can't and this latest swagger is for domestic consumption. My main scenario now is Trump walks and the Ukraine collapses in a messy and unpredictable heap. I very much hope the Macron/Starmer dick waving is just that else most of Europe risk going the way of Ukraine.
Not sure what Trump saw or concluded but under the circumstances what he posted comes across as a promise to escalate the war in Europe. Not sure what Putin thinks about it but it sure looks like a humiliating challenge to him to act favorably or be sorry.
At some point Trump will need to spell things out, and very clearly indeed, to Britain, France and Germany.
“In your attempts to sabotage our efforts to extricate ourselves from the Ukrainian conflict, you are acting against our core national interests.
You need to decide, announcing your decision publicly, whether you prioritise your economic, political, diplomatic and security interests with the United States, or whether you will abandon these, and continue to support Ukraine against us.”
Zelenskyy is at the poker table with very few chips. He has a weak hand and needs to bluff effectively, but his odds of winning are diminishing by the day. The daylight at the end of the tunnel near. He needs to move quickly before he has no way out. Being out of money, weapons and soldiers will call his bluff and take all his chips.
I think it is wrong to criticise the mineral deal. It is a FAR better security guarantee than any piece of paper commitment. It is a solid security guarantee because it creates a permanent rational national self interest in the US protecting Ukraine.
And what are the alternatives? Nothing else that would be acceptable to Russia. And Russia is in the driving seat here, like it or not.
That's why AFU is transferring so many forces to counter-attack in Shevchenko south of Pokrovsk: they need the huge lithium mine there to swap for peace.
The recent transfer of the best AFU fighters to the Russian salient South and Southwest of Pokrovsk signalled the beginning of a now chaotically accelerating retreat from Sudzha - with not just US intel but also Starlink apparently unavailable there for several days.
It seems the mines of the Pokrovsk salient have become a last symbolic goal for Kiev before some closing 'deal' including largely symbolic mineral deposits, for which so much elsewhere is being sacrificed... Just as so much was earlier sacrificed in Syrsky's strategically dumb defences of Bakhmut and Avdiivka and his grab for Sudzha and its symbolic gas pipeline - ironically now allowing a flow or 'leak' of Russian special forces behind the AFU frontline to sow panic, shortly after the gas itself was tirned off by Ukraine.
Kiev has now completely lost the plot.. but whoever if anyone is now writing the script for the Absurd Theatre of War likes irony..
"Zelensky has found it necessary (thanks to the US arms delivery shut down) to look like he is advocating a peace framework, but no doubt he will insist on Russia pulling most of its forces out of Ukraine."
Zelenskii has zero interest in ending the war. The war has brought and continues to bring him nothing but benefits. Besides the flood of sweet western cash for him and his cronies to skim, before 2022, he was the authoritarian ruler of a corrupt, nazi-infested hole.
Now we are duly assured that the little twerp is Winston Churchill, Pericles, Sun Tzu, Ashoka, George Washington and Solomon The Wise, all rolled into one, and a certified fashion icon, to boot.
So, naturally, he'll promise anything, as long as it keeps the war going. His kids won't be press ganged into the front lines, he won't be tapping out his personal account for "loans" that will never be repaid.
"... no doubt he [Zelensky] will insist on Russia pulling most of its forces out of Ukraine."
Zelensky would probably have a bigger chance of success "insisting" on a date with Taylor Swift. Russian withdrawal has always been Zelensky's demand -- from Crimea as well as the Donbas -- and that is not going to happen. Zelensky has nothing to offer (Putin, not Taylor Swift). That is what President Trump means by saying Zelensky has no cards. Zelensky will have to take whatever deal he is offered -- or keep on losing his war.
George Washington had what in common with Zelensky?
Washington cut down a cherry tree, Zelensky cut down tens of thousands of Russian speaking civilians?
Among professional historians, the tree was legendary.
Unlike the dead civilians
Specifically which dead civilians?
I’m actually not so sure how “hostile” the remaining population would be to an outright collapse of the Ukrainian state.
During Ukraine’s brief existence as a nation-state they did nothing but lie, cheat and steal everything of wealth leaving the Ukrainian people impoverished. Corruption is axiomatic with a destitute population.
Will the remaining people who live in Ukraine have warm and fuzzy memories of what life was like as an “independent” state? Clearly the oligarchs will cry wells of tears… as will the psychotic neo-Nazi brigades (that still exist).
But I think Europe will be shocked at just how pliable the remaining Ukrainian population will be under Russian rule.
The Russians have no interest in ruling the Ukraine.
All they have ever wanted is for the Ukraine to honor the Minsk agreement that Zelensky's predecessor signed. That is all that would be required to end the SMO.
But it might be a necessary for the Russian to rule the Ukrainians, if no one else wants or can.
What would have been their purpose in obtaining independence from the USSR, then?
It was probably cost-free or profitable for the oligarchs who would assume power.
They didn't seem to think that they'd ever have a need for the nukes they gave up in the process, which is probably a good thing...
Pan-Slavism broke down with the defeat of Imperial Russia in 1917, so something new had to be invented. Look at Putin as the revival of Pan-Slavism.
The fundamental question is therefore, are there any truth in Pan-Slavism? That translate into, is Pan-Slavism viable? 1. Take a look at the weakness of the East Europe today, 2. Take a look at a map - Siberia is what makes Pan-Slavism viable, and the Moscow had the access to Siberia.
Kindly give us your definition of "Pan-Slavism" so we can make sense of your post.
Uniting or partly uniting the Slavonic people. Are we happy?
It would be somewhere between “hostile” and “pliable.” 30 years of anti-Russian propaganda served its purpose. Doubt it will be “warm and fuzzy” but Ukrainians still don’t get it that it never was about Ukraine at all. But again, time does heal, or at least softens the bite.
The thing is Stephen, Trump does not need to do a deal AT ALL. This is old school thinking. It’s a new era. Trump can simply pull the plug and walk away and let the Europeans deal with it. The pressure is on Zelensky, Ukraine and Europe to make a deal. Neither Trump nor Putin need a deal. Trump might want a feather in his cap but he doesn’t need it. The clock is ticking on what might be only a 2 year clock and frankly he has more important things to do than bail out Ukraine or Europe.
Thank you, Gilgamech, That is the key point Zelensky & His Euroscum are missing. The Ukraine is not President Trump's problem. From a humanitarian perspective, he would like to see the killing end; but what he really wants is to get back to normal relations with Russia and cut the money we are spending on the military.
The majority of the US public never thinks about the Ukraine. They did not care when Biden ran away from Afghanistan; they won't care if President Trump washes his hands of Zelensky ... as he is apparently doing. Plus, walking away from the Ukraine would send a great message to the Baltic chihuahuas, Taiwan, Finland, and even the UK -- don't pick an unnecessary fight with a larger neighbor and then expect the US to bail you out.
NATO should have been dissolved at the end of the Cold War. Huge mistake not doing that. But better late than never.
The "war" could have been averted if Zelensky had honored the Minsk agreement signed by his predecessor. There is no need to renegotiate the same terms that Zelensky walked away from.
If we take the news as written, you are spot on.
I don't.
As such I believe Zelensky is used by the UK (with EU support) against the US. They try to use Zelensky to wreck Trumps peace initiatives. And they will keep doing this. I also believe the Trump administration knows this and will not give in. As such I do not expect any positive outcomes from a 'framework meeting'.
I suspect that Trump already has a solution planned and that will entail not just peace in the Ukraine, but also a political loss for the UK and increasing tensions in (to break apart) the EU. This is why the initiatives and announcements keep rolling out of the white house, to overpower any possible opposition (OODA loop anyone?)
JMHO: Now that Rubio has called the fight in the Ukraine a US-Russia proxy war, it stands to reason that the only way to end this war is for the US to stop providing the Ukraine with the means to keep fighting. They (the US) cannot tell the Ukraine to stop fighting, but they sure can make the odds so bad for the Ukraine that they have no choice but to stop.
We will need to wait and see how Riyadh develops. Right now weapons deliveries to Ukraine are shut down.
More importantly, the intelligence support that the Ukraine needs to target American, German, French, and British munitions on Russia have been cut off, with Starlink remaining by a thread.
I guess the AFU are already learning, in pantomime fashion "He's behind you!"
I heard Starlink has been shut down in Kursk for a couple of days now.
Is that what Musk told you?
Bloomberg actually:
"Troops in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine has seized land, are operating without Starlink access and the military is looking to learn from that experience."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-dependence-starlink-war-won-000000481.html
Something tells me that Riyadh cares more about the Zionist genocide of Gaza.
Russia had nothing to do with the proxy part of a war that is entirely existential to them.
NATO, the US, the UK, and NATO are the proxies, and the Ukrainians the ignorant victims.
A proxy is a stand in, an agent for another party.
Ukrainians are proxies for NATO - and Zelensky was a neocon puppet.
Who says that the population of Ukraine will be to Russia? There wasn't much riots in Kherson and zaporhizia oblasts when the Russian forced rolled in in the spring of 2022.
A much bigger problem for the whole of Europe, including Russia, are the hardcore Ukrainian nationalists, and all the western weapons.
Ukraine produces an imitation of feverish activity; "peace framework" vs. peace.
Trump is pretty crazy in his unpredictable 'madman' antics.
But he at least saw the contradiction between Zelensky calling Putin an untrustworthy terrorist bent on European then global domination, and saying he wanted to talk about peace.
Trump: Well you have to make peace with the evil terrorist who can't be trusted, dude, or there's no peace and Ukraine completely collapses (because Europe is a joke). I'm waiting.
Listening to Trump, it’s alternating between your eyes rolling and jaw dropping :-)
Zelensky has been uninvited to Riyadh. He won’t be staying for the discussions. Cutting him, the Europeans, and the US opposition out of the process was a very smart move.
The Russians have almost no choice but to continue the war.
1. How else would they remove the radical elements that spread all this hatred against Russia before the war happened? It was the US who financed and supported these radical elements.
Russia needs a purge of these elements in Ukraine.
2. The US sounds friendly today but what will happen if the administration changes in 4 years?
3. Why would Russia want a deal if they are winning. He Ukrainian army finds itself in a firebag today. Their last bargaining chip, if it ever was one, is almost gone.
The US would have to offer them something big and concrete. Any guesses?
Nobody believed me when I said the action would end up in Riyadh after The Comedian screwed up the White House signing. It wouldn’t surprise me a lot if Trump and this fool never meet face-to-face again, and Trump sends Rubio or Vance (or better yet some under-secretary) to sign any agreement…
Probably right. We don't know who from the US side is going to show up in Riyadh, but Rubio has been mentioned.
Think Trump will ever personally deal with The Comedian again?
No.
I read it would be Rubio, Waltz and Witkoff
Anything resembling US boots in Ukraine, or a supply of US arms to make Ukraine strong enough to be a threat, will be unacceptable to Russians. Zelensky does not seem to understand that the objectives that convinced Russia to get involved in a major war are still very much objectives to Russia.
This shows that Ukrainians believe their own propaganda. They are in denial about the actual reasons why Russia went to war, they believe in the myth of Putin's war, Putin's "illegal and unprovoked invasion", Putin's desire to eat Ukrainian children for breakfast, etc. But mostly, Ukrainians are in denial about the content of the Istambul agreement which they torpedoed, following UK/US advice.
Unless Ukrainians can reexamine the last decade of Ukrainian policies, they cannot ever be accepted by Russians as interlocutors in either a bilateral or a multilateral discussion.
.
About the position of Europe: for now, Europe is not seeking to hurt Trump's attempt to negotiate an end to the conflit. Europeans are seeking:
1) to create an illusion of continuous support for Ukraine, as a negotiation posture, believing this may strengthen Ukraine's position in the US-led negotiation;
2) to abuse the US-led diplomatic effort by depicting it as betrayal to their own populations, as to strengthen themselves, to diminish their dependence on the US, and if things turn out really lucky for them, to start standing on their own two feet. They know Trump will cut them loose if necessary or if he feels like it. So they are rushing to take action, and to do so and to convince most of their population, they are getting wild on the anti-Russian, pro-Ukrainian rethoric.
.
But as they do this, Europeans are also keeping the possibility open, to actually try and support Ukraine by themselves on the long run, which means to continue the war. It is not yet guranteed, but they're making sure they can decide to attempt it.
This would mean risking a serious rise in the scale of this war, as Russia would seek to exploit its advantages, especially if the US signals its desire to fully get out of the European quagmire.
Then, Russia would be incited to scale up the conflict and to beat Europe, before Europe can reorganise its industrial production, or decide on a French-based nuclear umbrella, or devise meaningful strategic and tactical mechanisms to bring large forces on its Eastern borders.
.
At the bottom of the issue, there is European leader's absolute incapability to eat their hats. American neocons could not do it either, but they were removed. Europe's parasites are still there, ready to cause much more harm than they already have.
.
And it just doesn't look like European leaders are in control of themselves. They seem to be rushing forward in a quest for goals they won't speak aloud. Macron is seeking to salvage his legacy, from being the most despise leader in recent French history, with a continuous stream of political failures over the years; to being the prophet of Europe's strategic independence. Von der Leyen believes in nothing but her own ego and her own image. And everybopdy else is fueled by fear: Merz wants to look bellicose and to rush rearmament of Germany out of fear of both Russian war and French eladership; Meloni is fearful of both as well but will instead adopt a traditionally Italian withdrawal and closure atittude of self-preservation. Tusk is pursuing the delusion of turning Poland into a full military power, even though he'll remain fully dependent on others' air power for decades. And Baltic leaders are stilol trpped in their dellusions that if they fart loud they'll convince everyone that abusing Russian-speaking communities stranded inside their borders at the end of the USSR is acceptable and can pass as self-defense, even though it is certain to draw Moscow's ire.
"Trump sent a strong warning and message on Friday, writing on Truth Social, "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED."
Of course, there are already far-reaching sanctions on Russia's banking sector, but the threat of more punitive action to come on top of what Biden put in place was accompanied by a warning to get to the table before it's "too late".
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-threatens-new-sanctions-tariffs-russia-get-table-its-too-late
Well looks to me that Trump is trying to play both ends off against the middle and looks likely to fail. He may be able to coerce Ukraine but not Russia. In fact I am pretty sure he knows he can't and this latest swagger is for domestic consumption. My main scenario now is Trump walks and the Ukraine collapses in a messy and unpredictable heap. I very much hope the Macron/Starmer dick waving is just that else most of Europe risk going the way of Ukraine.
Trump was briefed on Ukraine and nearly gagged. That is what his post was about.
Not sure what Trump saw or concluded but under the circumstances what he posted comes across as a promise to escalate the war in Europe. Not sure what Putin thinks about it but it sure looks like a humiliating challenge to him to act favorably or be sorry.
At some point Trump will need to spell things out, and very clearly indeed, to Britain, France and Germany.
“In your attempts to sabotage our efforts to extricate ourselves from the Ukrainian conflict, you are acting against our core national interests.
You need to decide, announcing your decision publicly, whether you prioritise your economic, political, diplomatic and security interests with the United States, or whether you will abandon these, and continue to support Ukraine against us.”
Zelenskyy is at the poker table with very few chips. He has a weak hand and needs to bluff effectively, but his odds of winning are diminishing by the day. The daylight at the end of the tunnel near. He needs to move quickly before he has no way out. Being out of money, weapons and soldiers will call his bluff and take all his chips.
I think it is wrong to criticise the mineral deal. It is a FAR better security guarantee than any piece of paper commitment. It is a solid security guarantee because it creates a permanent rational national self interest in the US protecting Ukraine.
And what are the alternatives? Nothing else that would be acceptable to Russia. And Russia is in the driving seat here, like it or not.
That's why AFU is transferring so many forces to counter-attack in Shevchenko south of Pokrovsk: they need the huge lithium mine there to swap for peace.
The recent transfer of the best AFU fighters to the Russian salient South and Southwest of Pokrovsk signalled the beginning of a now chaotically accelerating retreat from Sudzha - with not just US intel but also Starlink apparently unavailable there for several days.
It seems the mines of the Pokrovsk salient have become a last symbolic goal for Kiev before some closing 'deal' including largely symbolic mineral deposits, for which so much elsewhere is being sacrificed... Just as so much was earlier sacrificed in Syrsky's strategically dumb defences of Bakhmut and Avdiivka and his grab for Sudzha and its symbolic gas pipeline - ironically now allowing a flow or 'leak' of Russian special forces behind the AFU frontline to sow panic, shortly after the gas itself was tirned off by Ukraine.
Kiev has now completely lost the plot.. but whoever if anyone is now writing the script for the Absurd Theatre of War likes irony..
Having said that, Ukraine's lithium and other mineral reserves are pretty trivial in a global context, so I never quite got that story.
I suppose politicians always need some story, though.