Ukraine Update 06/13/2023

Offensive continues

Ukraine has stepped up its attack on the Vremivka Tactical Bridgehead focusing on the settlement of Marakrivka. Ukraine has substantially increased its artillery, bringing in the 4th Artillery Brigade, the Jaeger brigade, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade (drawn from strategic reserves) the 3rd Tank brigade and has moved one brigade from Kherson over to join the force on the bridgehead.  Other brigades also are involved in this operation, making it the heaviest push so far by Ukraine.

The map below shows where the major fighting is going on in this area.  The Russians have committed only a fraction of their forces, and right now they are outnumbered by the many Ukrainian brigades in this operation.

(Map photo from the Military Channel)

The Russians tried to launch a counter-offensive in the greyed out box on the map, but could slow the Ukrainians but not drive them back.  

The weather in the area is clearing, making air operations (helicopters, drones and aircraft) more effective.  The previous few days there was heavy rain and fog.

This battle is ongoing.  The Russians lost a general, Major General Sergei Goryachev, 52, chief of staff for the 35th Combined Arms Army, who died as a result of a missile strike, most likely his command post was hit by a HIMARS.  It is likely he was targeted by US and British spy aircraft located offshore.  The US has been running the Global Hawk RQ-4 drone, a highly capable intelligence drone, and the British brought in the much larger, manned Rivet Joint RC-135 spycraft.  

No word on the level of casualties or equipment destroyed on either side.

The Ukrainians are still very far from Russia's first line of defense, which is heavily fortified.   The Russian strategy so far appears to be formulated to be costly to the Ukrainians, slowly grinding down their forces and trying to form cauldrons where they can systematically annihilate Ukrainian armor.  The Ukrainians say that the Russians are running out of ammunition, but this may be based on the few days of bad weather rather than anything else.  In any case, Russia has control of the roadways all the way back into Russia proper, so it can reinforce as it chooses.

Other Developments

Russia has carried out heavy air attacks including Kiev.  Some of the attacks were focused on command centers, ammunition storage, POL sites etc.  

The Ukrainians keep claiming significant progress attacking the Bakhmut flanks, even though almost every report says that Ukrainian forces were driven off and took losses.  This is indicative of the need for Kiev to report only successes at home, even when these statements are divorced from reality.  The stepping up of Kiev's home front propaganda is something you would expect in the frame of a major offensive operation.  

The Russians have captured a Leopard tank, apparently undamaged, left by Ukrainian operators with the engine still running. The model of the tank (A4 or A6) has not been declared yet by the Russians, but this is a significant war trophy and a system Russian experts will exploit.  The Russians also captured a Bradley fighting vehicle that was not damaged.  There is a brief soldier's video of the capture of this equipment, but it is sketchy and does not reveal the actual time and place.

There is a very terrible situation on the Ukrainian side which deserves condemnation.  Four Ukrainian soldiers went to retrieve a comrade who was wounded on the battlefield.  They were not authorized to do this, and apparently they left the ranks to save their friend.  The Ukrainians sent in a Bradley and mowed down the four soldiers and their wounded colleague. The entire episode was captured on video by a Russian drone.

Weapons

The Russian Ka-52 attack and surveillance helicopter appears to have been successful in its operations during the offensive.  It is equipped with the 9m127-1 Vikhr-1 missile that works like the US Hellfire and the Israeli Spike.  Its main attribute is that it is far faster than Western missiles, making it hard to shoot down.  The Ka-52s are said to be equipped with a Directional Infrared Countermeasures System (DIRCM) for self-protection against missiles.  The US has DIRCM systems on some aircraft including AH-64E Apache and UH-60 helicopters.  The Russian system is called Vitebsk L-370.  Field reports say that it has been very successful against Ukrainian attacks.

The US has announced it will release DU ammunition to Ukraine.  The US produces 120mm DU tank rounds for armor penetration.  The Ukrainians can fire them from the Leopard tanks they have received and in future from Abrams tanks that have not yet been sent to Ukraine.  The ammunition cannot be used on the British Challenger tank because it uses a rifled gun barrel.

There is buzz in NATO that Poland wants to send land and air forces into Ukraine.  Poland has gotten some support from NATO, but warnings about the war spreading to Europe is a deterrent.

NATO has started, on Monday, June 12, a huge air exercise called Air Defender. The exercise will run until June 23rd.  The air exercise is the biggest in NATO history.

Politics

In a video in Moscow, Putin stood with Defense Minister Shoigu for photos, but they seemed distant from each other: in one frame Putin turns away from Shoigu.  Whether this means anything is not certain.

Russia has arrested a subversive group that was allegedly preparing sabotage attacks seeking to damage railways in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod Regions bordering Ukraine.