Stephen, you are crowing about an unprovoked attack on a great country. Israel intended to destroy 7 countries and this is the 7th. Zionism is an evil philosophy. In the 1920s, the leaders of Zionism stated they intended to "transfer" the Palestinian population out of Palestine - that was their word for ethnic cleansing. But even they didn't say the Jews intended to destroy every neighbouring country.
Based on a mythical land contract predated to around 2000BC (Genesis 15:18) invented by the Jewish elite freed from Babylon in 538BC by a Persian king who required his new province of Judea to have a devolved constitution, now known as the Torah.
The contract is tellingly framed in the geographical and legal terminology of the Persian Empire.
The generic Arabs in the Region of Palestine ( now partially occupied by Lebanon) was changed from Judea The Arabs living there did not even call themselves “Palestinians” then.
Stephen, I'm no expert just a dove who took up a substack after 10/07/23. I also wrote a Plain Dealer op-ed supporting the JCPOA in 2015. But in my Iran mini-Beat of my now private substack (I accept only non-anonymous free subscribers) one of my four focuses is on daily accounts of the status of Iranian and Hezbollah offensive capacity. In linking to your account I note: (4) Estimates of Iran’s and Hezbollah’s remaining offensive capacity, since war hawks and doves like to underesimate it, putting Israel at danger, and enemies of Israel constantly overestimate Israel’s immunity and discount danger to Israel.
Haaretz analyzed how many missiles Iran has to use, and in anoherThe Times of Israel “Ahead of the war in June 2025, the IDF said it identified efforts by Iran to significantly accelerate its production rate of ballistic missiles and increase its stockpile from around 3,000 to 8,000 within two years. During that conflict, Iran launched more than 500 missiles at Israel.” In another account, Haaretz said that as of 3/1, Iran has only used 100 missiles and drones so far, and is rationing their use to prolong the war, which it felt will only last a few days. According to a Wikipedia update, Hezbollah has fired hundreds of missiles into Northern Israel so far in this war. According Alma Research and Education Center, as of January 2026, Hezbollah still has substantial offensive military capacity. March 3, Stephen Bryen, former high official in the US Defense Department, in his Substack Weapons and Strategy, provided an update on Update on Iranian Missile and Drone Attacks, with the report that Israel/US have air superiority and are focusing on degrading Iran’s missile launching capacity still further. He detailed numbers of Iranian launches and a little bit on Hezbollah, saying Israel’s new Iron Beam laser is proving successful. n the time since 10/07/23 that I have been focusing on this, I’ve heard such accounts before. It is always to the same effect: The US and/or Israel have “degraded” offensive capacity. He points out that there are also “underground” missiles that are hard to eliminate. Duh. How many times have we heard Hezbollah has been “degraded” or Iran’s capacitity has been “obliterated” only to find out they have newly upgraded missiles and drone? I’m skeptical. Doves like myself, also, have fallen for this, and the function it to strengthen the hand of the hawks. See the above account from Alma. To see my links, sub here: https://michaelalandover.substack.com/p/peace-with-justice-in-the-middle
I look forward to your further documentation with more links to your sources, as I do not trust AI summaries with no links.
The Israelis claim an interception rate of 95% and yet I see videos online of 7-9 Patriot interceptors going after a single Iranian missile and missing.
Is this the Ukrainian school of interception counting?
The audience you cultivate won't like this Stevie. As an Israel-hawk, this bit is hilarious - "The British have hurt US warfighting efforts and ... Keir Starmer, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship."
More sanctimony, please. The "special relationship" that Orange, Vance and the rest have been shitting on for over a year? How dare they say 'no!' "So terminated!"
We see an Iranian version of old Soviet "Dead Hand," in event of broken command structure. Field units have certain levels of autonomy and pre-targeting, even independent release authority. But that's more like revenge than a coordinated operation. Strategically, Iran devoted time & resources to building up certain types of munitions, and the caves are full so the degrade-process takes time, Yet time is not our friend... Mission creep and randomness, plus US limits to its own resources.
I’m really enjoying this. I know that’s bad to say but the 1979 hostage crisis is still fresh on my mind: 444 days of those shitheads parading our boys around in blindfolds. We should’ve done this 46 years ago. Let’s pound these religious weirdos into the ground.
What would you say if one day China does the same to you? Declare you financial fanatics and aims to liberate the US from its evil government, because millions of Americans don't have health insurance and money is more important than your environment/nature?
Stupid comment there’s no equivalency. Shiite theocratic military dictatorship is not the same as America and China would never be so stupid. Chinese are mercantilist and America is their client.
Get over the peace fetish; You need Curtis Yarvin pronto:
“All real-estate titles have war as a genesis block. War has consequences. At least, in real (normal) world, war has consequences. The real world, is seeping back into crackpot world through cracks in the pot, this is how deals get done. Learn to love it.
In the Middle East, we tested the idea that war should have no consequences. The result: 80 years of war, with occasional cease-fires. That’s the crackpot world of the “Peace Fetish.”
"The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship"
Edit:
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship.
"Who the fuck does he think he is? Who's the fucking superpower here?"
- Clinton on first meeting the indicted war criminal, whose corruption trial has now been postponed again - like the budget debate that might this month have triggered new elections he would lose.
Markets yesterday hardly reacted to the first attacks, as the British foreign office reportedly contacted Laridjani to propose a deal.
But after Netanyahu last night tried to torpedo any deal by taking out Laridjani and Pezeshkian, intent on the Balkanization of Iran and a long civil war that will again increase energy costs for Europe and generate a new flood of refugees, more concerns have hit Trump's favourite measure of success.
"However, the loss of these units is the primary reason the massive 150-missile waves seen on February 28 have devolved into smaller, “sporadic” barrages"
It has been reported that Iran has issued orders before the attack that local commanders should take initiative rather than being directed from a central location. This could be another reason for smaller barrages.
Sounds "good" if one "hates" Iran and is a supporter of endless U.S. illegal warring, Zionist murder and treachery, etc. But you're relying primarily on reports from official U.S. and Israeli sources, both of which have proven to be -- especially during wartime -- unreliable, ridiculously exaggerated purveyors of bullshit and outright lies. Even the absurdly stupid and addled "Netanyahu and Israel Lobby owned" Trump believes and crows about this stuff. We'll find out in the ensuing weeks how much of it affects the outcome of what appears to be a new paradigm being created in this crucial part of the world.
Wishin’, and hopin'. 20 + yrs preparing. Any planes over Iran will be FUBAR. And how long until they get their nukes ready? Weeks? Days? This was a galactically stupid move.
Enjoyed consuming the data you shared. I am not a chemist, but I received a masters degree in Forensic Sciences from GWU. I believe that Iran has been a long-standing producer of Propellants and Explosives. Our casualties in Iraq & Afghanistan, the deaths & maimings of our troops have long been suspected/known to be from explosives produced in Iran (going back 30+ years), and the relatively recent use of Iranian produced drones use propellants and explosives suspected of being produced by Iranian chemists/manufacturers.
In the late 1960s, Lewis Puller (son of WWII Gen. Chesty Puller) had his legs blown off by an IED in Vietnam. In those days, the producers of the IED explosives were believed to have been USSR or China. But, as we entered Iraq and our Soldiers were killed/maimed by IEDs, Iran was suspected of producing the explosives. What efforts was the U.S. using to eradicate the explosives factories? Why would our government allow such production, unabated? And we suffered through the Middle-Eastern IED proliferation at a pace that has produced the Wounded Warrior fund raising commercials we have seen for many years. So any country that produces explosives designed or modified to kill/maim U.S. military personnel should find its manufacturing plants in the cross-hairs of U.S. or Israeli intelligence and counter-measures. Where have they been?
As time passed, drones have been used in warfare and they deliver explosives. In addition to the explosives, drones need propellants. Since Iran has become a leader in drone production and distribution to Russia for targeting military & civilians in Ukraine, where are the reports of mysterious explosions in Iran of suspected explosive/propellant production sites?
Surely, Israel knows where the explosives they encountered in Lebanon and Gaza…were produced. For their intelligence capacity, they should know Iran’s sources of explosives/propellants & the locations where manufacture/in-bound shipment takes place.
If, during the Iraq/Afghanistan conflicts, the U.S. was constrained from directly attacking Iran, all of that is over now. If we know the source of production of the devices that kill Americans and our solid allies, we no longer have to engage under the “old” rules. It is time to recognize the chemistry behind Iranian production of explosives/propellants and take those sites out.
C'EST LE POINT DE VUE D'UN AMERICAIN donc à prendre avec des pincettes
les américains croient toujours qu'ils sont la première puissance du monde or cela est totalement faux depuis plus de 15 ans la Chine est la première puissance économique
2) selon des facteurs autres qu'un stupide PIB trafique ,d'autres paramètres le CHINE vaut plus de UNE FOIS et DEMI les USA, c'est pour cela qu'on assiste aux derniers soubresauts d'un empire condamné à brève échéance.....nous sommes dans le siècle chinois pour 100 and minimum.......
Le terme technique militaire pour cela est le ciblage sensible au temps (TST) des lanceurs-érecteurs-transporteurs (TEL).
C'est la tâche physique la plus difficile de la guerre moderne.
Durant la guerre du Golfe de 1991, les États-Unis bénéficiaient d'une supériorité aérienne totale et ont passé des semaines à tenter de détruire les lanceurs mobiles de missiles Scud de Saddam Hussein.
La coalition a effectué environ 2 500 sorties aériennes visant spécifiquement à traquer les lanceurs mobiles Scud irakiens dans l'ouest de l'Irak.
L'évaluation consensuelle d'après-guerre, confirmée par de multiples analyses classifiées et non classifiées, est que la coalition n'a probablement jamais détruit un seul lanceur mobile opérationnel.
Chaque «victime» revendiquée s'est avérée être un leurre, un camion ou un lanceur vide.
Les missiles Scud ont continué d'être tirés jusqu'au cessez-le-feu.
L'Iran a eu 35 ans pour tirer cette leçon.
Leur force de lancement mobile est dispersée sur un pays trois fois plus grand que l'Irak, avec un terrain beaucoup plus complexe : les monts Zagros, des zones urbaines de plus de 80 millions d'habitants, des réseaux de tunnels dont l'imagerie satellite permet d'identifier les entrées, mais dont l'intérieur est indétectable.
Les TEL mobiles routiers iraniens peuvent être dissimulés dans des garages ordinaires, des entrepôts, sous des ponts autoroutiers, à l'intérieur de tunnels de montagne.
Ils peuvent se déplacer, monter, tirer et se relocaliser en moins de 15 minutes.
L'Iran a spécifiquement donné la priorité à la reconstitution de sa force de lanceurs mobiles après la guerre des Douze Jours, les images satellites de Parchin et de Shahroud montrant des installations reconstruites pour la production de missiles à propergol solide, précisément pour ce scénario.
Les États-Unis ont intercepté une cargaison de mélangeurs planétaires chinois en novembre.
Combien de cargaisons n'ont-ils PAS interceptées ?
La campagne aérienne détruira les sites fixes connus dans les 48 à 72 premières heures.
Cela réduira, mais ne supprimera PAS, la force de lancement mobile.
Plusieurs semaines après le début de la campagne, des missiles continuent d'être lancés depuis des lieux que les services de renseignement n'ont jamais identifiés.
Il ne s'agit pas de spéculations, mais bien du schéma historique constant de toutes les campagnes aériennes contre des forces mobiles dispersées.
Stephen, you are crowing about an unprovoked attack on a great country. Israel intended to destroy 7 countries and this is the 7th. Zionism is an evil philosophy. In the 1920s, the leaders of Zionism stated they intended to "transfer" the Palestinian population out of Palestine - that was their word for ethnic cleansing. But even they didn't say the Jews intended to destroy every neighbouring country.
But Huckabee just gave them permission...
Based on a mythical land contract predated to around 2000BC (Genesis 15:18) invented by the Jewish elite freed from Babylon in 538BC by a Persian king who required his new province of Judea to have a devolved constitution, now known as the Torah.
The contract is tellingly framed in the geographical and legal terminology of the Persian Empire.
The generic Arabs in the Region of Palestine ( now partially occupied by Lebanon) was changed from Judea The Arabs living there did not even call themselves “Palestinians” then.
Zionist cucks will be cucks...
Stephen, I'm no expert just a dove who took up a substack after 10/07/23. I also wrote a Plain Dealer op-ed supporting the JCPOA in 2015. But in my Iran mini-Beat of my now private substack (I accept only non-anonymous free subscribers) one of my four focuses is on daily accounts of the status of Iranian and Hezbollah offensive capacity. In linking to your account I note: (4) Estimates of Iran’s and Hezbollah’s remaining offensive capacity, since war hawks and doves like to underesimate it, putting Israel at danger, and enemies of Israel constantly overestimate Israel’s immunity and discount danger to Israel.
Haaretz analyzed how many missiles Iran has to use, and in anoherThe Times of Israel “Ahead of the war in June 2025, the IDF said it identified efforts by Iran to significantly accelerate its production rate of ballistic missiles and increase its stockpile from around 3,000 to 8,000 within two years. During that conflict, Iran launched more than 500 missiles at Israel.” In another account, Haaretz said that as of 3/1, Iran has only used 100 missiles and drones so far, and is rationing their use to prolong the war, which it felt will only last a few days. According to a Wikipedia update, Hezbollah has fired hundreds of missiles into Northern Israel so far in this war. According Alma Research and Education Center, as of January 2026, Hezbollah still has substantial offensive military capacity. March 3, Stephen Bryen, former high official in the US Defense Department, in his Substack Weapons and Strategy, provided an update on Update on Iranian Missile and Drone Attacks, with the report that Israel/US have air superiority and are focusing on degrading Iran’s missile launching capacity still further. He detailed numbers of Iranian launches and a little bit on Hezbollah, saying Israel’s new Iron Beam laser is proving successful. n the time since 10/07/23 that I have been focusing on this, I’ve heard such accounts before. It is always to the same effect: The US and/or Israel have “degraded” offensive capacity. He points out that there are also “underground” missiles that are hard to eliminate. Duh. How many times have we heard Hezbollah has been “degraded” or Iran’s capacitity has been “obliterated” only to find out they have newly upgraded missiles and drone? I’m skeptical. Doves like myself, also, have fallen for this, and the function it to strengthen the hand of the hawks. See the above account from Alma. To see my links, sub here: https://michaelalandover.substack.com/p/peace-with-justice-in-the-middle
I look forward to your further documentation with more links to your sources, as I do not trust AI summaries with no links.
I see no independent validation for the information in your article.
It would be highly dubious to trust those who have wanted this war for 40 years.
The Israelis claim an interception rate of 95% and yet I see videos online of 7-9 Patriot interceptors going after a single Iranian missile and missing.
Is this the Ukrainian school of interception counting?
95% interception rate, with all the damage seen in Israel, would equate to Iran having already shot 60 bazillion misiles!
The audience you cultivate won't like this Stevie. As an Israel-hawk, this bit is hilarious - "The British have hurt US warfighting efforts and ... Keir Starmer, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship."
More sanctimony, please. The "special relationship" that Orange, Vance and the rest have been shitting on for over a year? How dare they say 'no!' "So terminated!"
Stick to stroking your putinistas.
We see an Iranian version of old Soviet "Dead Hand," in event of broken command structure. Field units have certain levels of autonomy and pre-targeting, even independent release authority. But that's more like revenge than a coordinated operation. Strategically, Iran devoted time & resources to building up certain types of munitions, and the caves are full so the degrade-process takes time, Yet time is not our friend... Mission creep and randomness, plus US limits to its own resources.
I’m really enjoying this. I know that’s bad to say but the 1979 hostage crisis is still fresh on my mind: 444 days of those shitheads parading our boys around in blindfolds. We should’ve done this 46 years ago. Let’s pound these religious weirdos into the ground.
What would you say if one day China does the same to you? Declare you financial fanatics and aims to liberate the US from its evil government, because millions of Americans don't have health insurance and money is more important than your environment/nature?
At least you got my general stance accurate. So not bad. A wee bit insulting.
Stupid comment there’s no equivalency. Shiite theocratic military dictatorship is not the same as America and China would never be so stupid. Chinese are mercantilist and America is their client.
Get over the peace fetish; You need Curtis Yarvin pronto:
“All real-estate titles have war as a genesis block. War has consequences. At least, in real (normal) world, war has consequences. The real world, is seeping back into crackpot world through cracks in the pot, this is how deals get done. Learn to love it.
In the Middle East, we tested the idea that war should have no consequences. The result: 80 years of war, with occasional cease-fires. That’s the crackpot world of the “Peace Fetish.”
Curtis
"The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship"
Edit:
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship.
"Who the fuck does he think he is? Who's the fucking superpower here?"
- Clinton on first meeting the indicted war criminal, whose corruption trial has now been postponed again - like the budget debate that might this month have triggered new elections he would lose.
Markets yesterday hardly reacted to the first attacks, as the British foreign office reportedly contacted Laridjani to propose a deal.
But after Netanyahu last night tried to torpedo any deal by taking out Laridjani and Pezeshkian, intent on the Balkanization of Iran and a long civil war that will again increase energy costs for Europe and generate a new flood of refugees, more concerns have hit Trump's favourite measure of success.
Which way will the toddler turn?
Who's the fucking superpower here?
"However, the loss of these units is the primary reason the massive 150-missile waves seen on February 28 have devolved into smaller, “sporadic” barrages"
It has been reported that Iran has issued orders before the attack that local commanders should take initiative rather than being directed from a central location. This could be another reason for smaller barrages.
Nice write up. Thanks for the update
Sounds "good" if one "hates" Iran and is a supporter of endless U.S. illegal warring, Zionist murder and treachery, etc. But you're relying primarily on reports from official U.S. and Israeli sources, both of which have proven to be -- especially during wartime -- unreliable, ridiculously exaggerated purveyors of bullshit and outright lies. Even the absurdly stupid and addled "Netanyahu and Israel Lobby owned" Trump believes and crows about this stuff. We'll find out in the ensuing weeks how much of it affects the outcome of what appears to be a new paradigm being created in this crucial part of the world.
One would be naive to think Iran didn't plan for this. They will continue to hit their neighbours to demonstrate to accomplish the following:
Point out that your national security is worse off if you have US military bases in your country
increase the cost of the war to a point where someone in Israel or Washington says, it's enough.
Wishin’, and hopin'. 20 + yrs preparing. Any planes over Iran will be FUBAR. And how long until they get their nukes ready? Weeks? Days? This was a galactically stupid move.
Enjoyed consuming the data you shared. I am not a chemist, but I received a masters degree in Forensic Sciences from GWU. I believe that Iran has been a long-standing producer of Propellants and Explosives. Our casualties in Iraq & Afghanistan, the deaths & maimings of our troops have long been suspected/known to be from explosives produced in Iran (going back 30+ years), and the relatively recent use of Iranian produced drones use propellants and explosives suspected of being produced by Iranian chemists/manufacturers.
In the late 1960s, Lewis Puller (son of WWII Gen. Chesty Puller) had his legs blown off by an IED in Vietnam. In those days, the producers of the IED explosives were believed to have been USSR or China. But, as we entered Iraq and our Soldiers were killed/maimed by IEDs, Iran was suspected of producing the explosives. What efforts was the U.S. using to eradicate the explosives factories? Why would our government allow such production, unabated? And we suffered through the Middle-Eastern IED proliferation at a pace that has produced the Wounded Warrior fund raising commercials we have seen for many years. So any country that produces explosives designed or modified to kill/maim U.S. military personnel should find its manufacturing plants in the cross-hairs of U.S. or Israeli intelligence and counter-measures. Where have they been?
As time passed, drones have been used in warfare and they deliver explosives. In addition to the explosives, drones need propellants. Since Iran has become a leader in drone production and distribution to Russia for targeting military & civilians in Ukraine, where are the reports of mysterious explosions in Iran of suspected explosive/propellant production sites?
Surely, Israel knows where the explosives they encountered in Lebanon and Gaza…were produced. For their intelligence capacity, they should know Iran’s sources of explosives/propellants & the locations where manufacture/in-bound shipment takes place.
If, during the Iraq/Afghanistan conflicts, the U.S. was constrained from directly attacking Iran, all of that is over now. If we know the source of production of the devices that kill Americans and our solid allies, we no longer have to engage under the “old” rules. It is time to recognize the chemistry behind Iranian production of explosives/propellants and take those sites out.
C'EST LE POINT DE VUE D'UN AMERICAIN donc à prendre avec des pincettes
les américains croient toujours qu'ils sont la première puissance du monde or cela est totalement faux depuis plus de 15 ans la Chine est la première puissance économique
2) selon des facteurs autres qu'un stupide PIB trafique ,d'autres paramètres le CHINE vaut plus de UNE FOIS et DEMI les USA, c'est pour cela qu'on assiste aux derniers soubresauts d'un empire condamné à brève échéance.....nous sommes dans le siècle chinois pour 100 and minimum.......
Le terme technique militaire pour cela est le ciblage sensible au temps (TST) des lanceurs-érecteurs-transporteurs (TEL).
C'est la tâche physique la plus difficile de la guerre moderne.
Durant la guerre du Golfe de 1991, les États-Unis bénéficiaient d'une supériorité aérienne totale et ont passé des semaines à tenter de détruire les lanceurs mobiles de missiles Scud de Saddam Hussein.
La coalition a effectué environ 2 500 sorties aériennes visant spécifiquement à traquer les lanceurs mobiles Scud irakiens dans l'ouest de l'Irak.
Terrain désertique plat, suprématie aérienne totale, meilleures capacités ISR au monde.
L'évaluation consensuelle d'après-guerre, confirmée par de multiples analyses classifiées et non classifiées, est que la coalition n'a probablement jamais détruit un seul lanceur mobile opérationnel.
Chaque «victime» revendiquée s'est avérée être un leurre, un camion ou un lanceur vide.
Les missiles Scud ont continué d'être tirés jusqu'au cessez-le-feu.
L'Iran a eu 35 ans pour tirer cette leçon.
Leur force de lancement mobile est dispersée sur un pays trois fois plus grand que l'Irak, avec un terrain beaucoup plus complexe : les monts Zagros, des zones urbaines de plus de 80 millions d'habitants, des réseaux de tunnels dont l'imagerie satellite permet d'identifier les entrées, mais dont l'intérieur est indétectable.
Les TEL mobiles routiers iraniens peuvent être dissimulés dans des garages ordinaires, des entrepôts, sous des ponts autoroutiers, à l'intérieur de tunnels de montagne.
Ils peuvent se déplacer, monter, tirer et se relocaliser en moins de 15 minutes.
L'Iran a spécifiquement donné la priorité à la reconstitution de sa force de lanceurs mobiles après la guerre des Douze Jours, les images satellites de Parchin et de Shahroud montrant des installations reconstruites pour la production de missiles à propergol solide, précisément pour ce scénario.
Les États-Unis ont intercepté une cargaison de mélangeurs planétaires chinois en novembre.
Combien de cargaisons n'ont-ils PAS interceptées ?
La campagne aérienne détruira les sites fixes connus dans les 48 à 72 premières heures.
Cela réduira, mais ne supprimera PAS, la force de lancement mobile.
Plusieurs semaines après le début de la campagne, des missiles continuent d'être lancés depuis des lieux que les services de renseignement n'ont jamais identifiés.
Il ne s'agit pas de spéculations, mais bien du schéma historique constant de toutes les campagnes aériennes contre des forces mobiles dispersées.
Uncle Sam better hope that some of those Yemeni peasants he did a deal with last year didn't help Iran hide missiles and drones in the Zagros.