This entire DPRK scenario is an American spook media op. Russia does not need a brigade of DPRK troops. The issues around communication and coordination are insurmountable outside of a catastrophe. In the event of a catastrophe, we'd see Chinese troops, not DPRK.
More likely, this is the US Security State laying building a box for Trump. The two areas Trump tried to deviate from the American regime consensus was 1) Russia and 2) DPRK. The Security State is connecting these two topics together, thereby preventing Trump from managing either.
Lastly, nothing will "destabilize" DPRK. The Chinese and Russians will ensure the state is empowered to survive whatever the Americans throw at it. Everything is different now.
I suspect without firm evidence that the whole thing is intended to give South Korea a pretext to escalate its involvement in Ukraine.
You may recall that SK had not wanted to get involved, then agreed to sell the US munitions, ostensibly solely to replenish Americna stocks, which was a conscious lie on the part of all concerned.
This will be used as a pretext to escalate further before NATO troops are sent.
Yes, that might be correct. The US primary concern is East Asia, and delaying Chinese regional (and then global) hegemony as long as possible, and deeply involving ROK in UKR is one way to create the needed regional tensions and antagonisms to ensure that ROK does not come to its senses and prioritize economic relations with the future hegemon over the US.
Also - ROK actually has an industrial economy. Most Western states do not.
Stephen, you write, "There is no longer much doubt there are North Korean troops training in far eastern Russia."
I am wondering if you could share how you reached this assessment, one that eschews probabilities for the rhetorical redoubt of certainty.
As you strongly imply, Russia has every right to accept military assistance or personnel from countries with which they have a mutual assistance agreement, especially since their territory was invaded. But Ukraine insists that North Korean troops will enter Ukraine any day, not just assist in Kursk, while US officials call it a "concerning probability".
Still, if your sources on DPRK troops sent West are the U.S. and Ukraine, you are basing your assumptions on demonstrated liars, who also present zero evidence.
OTOH, you are correct that in the numbers people are talking about, there is no military significance to an added 3000-5000 KPA soldiers. If anything, they would present logistical difficulties that would hinder Russia's military goals.
For my money, this is a propaganda game. Its implication is racist (not that you are racist, but those who invented this stratagem are counting on racism), as the Pentagon/CIA/Kyiv hope to conjure up visions of Communistic Asian hordes invading "white" Europe, necessitating a response from the "civilized" countries.
I don't think it is a propaganda game when it comes to training of NK troops in Russia. There are photos, videos and satellite imagery. I am less sure there are any NK troops in Kursk nor am I certain they are being trained for that.
I did you a disservice in assuming you were backing the idea that North Korean troops were being sent to Ukraine or Kursk. I apologize for that. But I still am not certain to what degree NK troops would be undergoing training in Far Eastern Russia. Have you personally seen the imagery you describe, and feel you have the background to assess it? Why not send Russian experts to North Korea, if training on provided weapons systems, for instance, were involved?
Again, the reliability of U.S. and ROK statements on North Korean matters is hugely problematical, as is that of the "experts" who supply the media and/or government with their opinions. For instance, I turned from a disbeliever in Communist propaganda about U.S. use of biological weapons in the Korean War to a believer after I succeeded in examining the documentary evidence myself. It was an eye-opening experience! See https://open.substack.com/pub/kayej/p/new-revelations-on-germ-warfare-its?r=2t45z&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I don't think Russia need +- 10.000 DPRK troops. But isn't this according international law? I thought a sovereign nation could ask military assistance from an other nation. Ukraine invaded Kursk so it seem legal for asking NK to help defend Russian territory. So why the western cries when everything is legal? Sounds more as a desperate call to draw NATO or even South Korea into the war. Definitely South Korea's is overacting.
Russia has the manufacturing running and will have export capacity when the war ends. I think they will supply weapons to all friendly nations now, that unwritten rule was broken by NATO. With weapons also comes training. Both Russia and Ukraine are now the most experienced armies in the world. It just makes sense to train your partners in modern warfare, drones, EW, assault missions, trenches,... This is a war that NATO wasn't prepared for.
Given the recently signed mutual defense treaty between the two countries, it’s unsurprising that North Korean troops would be training in Russia, thereby becoming familiar with modern Russian weaponry and tactics.
I can’t see any reason to assume from the mere fact of their presence that there is an intention by the governments of both countries to commit them to combat operations.
Of course, we see that the possibility of North Korean military assistance to Russia is causing great concern in the West, so perhaps the purpose of the orchestrated leaking of pics and videos is to demonstrate that Russia has a few asymmetrical cards up its sleeve which can be played as and when necessary.
Agree…if, as reported, the RF is recruiting tens of thousands of volunteers each month, it would seem that they don’t need them. I’m not sure it really matters all that much that they are training NK soldiers in the far east. It would seem that this would benefit NK far more than Russia.
Why do this to your readers, Stephen? I don't think many people here would expect such "refined " nonsense from you, which CNN and other unscrupulous liars are capable of?! "There is no doubt anymore"...??!
Sorry for delayed response; I've been away.Marat is probably the best war reporter out there...he is "fluff-free"...just the facts verified and vetted as best possible under the circumstances. He states that 16 SK pilots from a fighter wing were sent to operate F-16's out of Romanian airspace. Maybe a response to this? : https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/10/24/north-korean-combat-aviation-pilots-are-stationed-in-russia/
If North Korean troops fight only on Russian soil, there will be no problem. It's Russia's business how it defends itself. Good move from Putin, and I guess he won't be in a rush to close the Kursk pocket.
Although...?! Russia , China and the DPRK ...This "North Korean landing" is beneficial in Western minds! How did "everyone" get nervous in response to the conclusion of a mutual defense Treaty between Russia and the DPRK !?
It is even very interesting - how will the United States "extinguish" its man-made "hotbeds of tension"?! Overthrow the government in Tehran and Pyongyang ? "As usual"? After decades of demonization of their regimes , blockades, sanctions ? What kind of fool, after all this pressure and lies, would buy into American "beads"? Zelensky won 't let you lie ...
RF and DPRK share a border, have a mutual defense treaty, and both have been repeatedly antagonized by the US under false pretenses, and suffered all manner of abuses and insults for the better part of a century. Why should they not cooperate?
Contrarily, UA and ROK do not share a border, nor a common enemy, nor have a comparable treaty. And besides that, PRC is an indispensable trade partner for ROK. Joining the US anti-China "chip wars" sanctions regime, is already a kick in the nuts to South Korean tech champion Samsung. They'll have to deal with being pushed out of the Chinese market, and simultaneously compete with a superior TSMC for a slice of a now smaller global chip pie. In an industry with absurd capital cost and prone to a single winner taking it all. China is eating their lunch in all kinds of classic industry too, like ship building, cars, appliances - comparable situation to Germany, though ROK has thus far been somewhat more pragmatic.
Finally, one might also ask if ROK really wants to be sending its fighting age men into this meat grinder. They have, if I'm not mistaken, the worst demographics of any developed country, something like 0.6 birth rate. One could then ask the same of DPRK, which had a lower population to start with.
The whole thing strikes me as a classic pseudo-news fap to distract from the BRICS summit. I suppose we'll see a week from now if there's any follow-up.
Maybe it is Russia's way of saying that if NATO troops are being used in the Ukraine, then they will use those of their ally, North Korea, in their country.
The worst development was N Korea and Russia signing a mutual defense treaty. Not only do we fear China coming to aid the N Koreans we now have Russia as well. With that kind of backup, its not hard to make an informed opinion that this will make Korea more dangerous. Could it be that N Korea is taking the opportunity to have his troops gain combat experience with a view towards a future war on the Korean peninsula. They might be a wooden leg for Russian Commanders but they certainly can be worth the trouble in the defense. Its all insanely dangerous. Biden and Europe set the world on fire and fixing that may or may not be possible now. Certainly this is one more step along the path to world war.
I believe Russia wanted access to NK's manufacturing capabilities, especially missiles and ammunition. NK wanted it for protection in case war happened on the peninsula. It certainly does not move us in any peaceful direction.
Why would the North Koreans be afraid. The South Koreans reproduce at a rate of 0.9 children per family. the lowest fertility rate of all nations. It's a sick society with no spiritual belief system other than beauty and money. In a few decades it will be gone without a single shot fired.
The answer is they haven't. They have been training mid-level rank North Korean officers for years but that is nothing new. As everyone including this article points out there is no upside and plenty of downside to bringing in significant numbers of North Korean combat troops. The Russians have plenty of troops and no trouble recruiting more.
Zelensky's forces are getting wiped out in Kursk and he is looking for something to blame it on. The western media eats it up just like they eat up everything the Ukrainians post no matter how improbable.
I know this will come as a surprise to many in the west but not all Russians are white. The region where the supposed North Korean troops are have supposedly been observed doing basic training and outfitting is also the area where Russians have just completed a major recruiting drive. The local population there looks like North Koreans to Americans.
I'm stunned, that the reel reason for Russia and North Koreans to send North Korean soldiers to Russia haven't stucked any pundits in the West.
The war in Ukraine and Kursk oblast isn't just about winning, but also about preparing for the next war. All involved and around are preparing, so are the North Koreans. The best way of preparing is doing the real stuff, that's fighting. So that's what the North Koreans will do.
Zelenskys attempt to get to the nuclear power plant in Kursk, and trying to push Russia into Peace negotions gave the North Koreans the opportunity to fight on Russian soil.
The only remaining question will be, why does the Russians bring "the knowhow" and skills of modern land war to the North Koreans? The answer is quite clear - to tie up the Americans in another land war far from the shores of California, on the Korean peninsula. Surely the Americans would also loose that war, if they don't redraw before, cause again it's on Russian terms .
This entire DPRK scenario is an American spook media op. Russia does not need a brigade of DPRK troops. The issues around communication and coordination are insurmountable outside of a catastrophe. In the event of a catastrophe, we'd see Chinese troops, not DPRK.
More likely, this is the US Security State laying building a box for Trump. The two areas Trump tried to deviate from the American regime consensus was 1) Russia and 2) DPRK. The Security State is connecting these two topics together, thereby preventing Trump from managing either.
Lastly, nothing will "destabilize" DPRK. The Chinese and Russians will ensure the state is empowered to survive whatever the Americans throw at it. Everything is different now.
I suspect without firm evidence that the whole thing is intended to give South Korea a pretext to escalate its involvement in Ukraine.
You may recall that SK had not wanted to get involved, then agreed to sell the US munitions, ostensibly solely to replenish Americna stocks, which was a conscious lie on the part of all concerned.
This will be used as a pretext to escalate further before NATO troops are sent.
Yes, that might be correct. The US primary concern is East Asia, and delaying Chinese regional (and then global) hegemony as long as possible, and deeply involving ROK in UKR is one way to create the needed regional tensions and antagonisms to ensure that ROK does not come to its senses and prioritize economic relations with the future hegemon over the US.
Also - ROK actually has an industrial economy. Most Western states do not.
SK has been shock troops for western atrocities since Vietnam so getting DPRK in the mix is a sort of payback for that.
China has already trained their troops in Russia during the SMO.
Stephen, you write, "There is no longer much doubt there are North Korean troops training in far eastern Russia."
I am wondering if you could share how you reached this assessment, one that eschews probabilities for the rhetorical redoubt of certainty.
As you strongly imply, Russia has every right to accept military assistance or personnel from countries with which they have a mutual assistance agreement, especially since their territory was invaded. But Ukraine insists that North Korean troops will enter Ukraine any day, not just assist in Kursk, while US officials call it a "concerning probability".
Still, if your sources on DPRK troops sent West are the U.S. and Ukraine, you are basing your assumptions on demonstrated liars, who also present zero evidence.
OTOH, you are correct that in the numbers people are talking about, there is no military significance to an added 3000-5000 KPA soldiers. If anything, they would present logistical difficulties that would hinder Russia's military goals.
For my money, this is a propaganda game. Its implication is racist (not that you are racist, but those who invented this stratagem are counting on racism), as the Pentagon/CIA/Kyiv hope to conjure up visions of Communistic Asian hordes invading "white" Europe, necessitating a response from the "civilized" countries.
I don't think it is a propaganda game when it comes to training of NK troops in Russia. There are photos, videos and satellite imagery. I am less sure there are any NK troops in Kursk nor am I certain they are being trained for that.
Is it possible to identify Koreans from the DPRK by these photos?
I did you a disservice in assuming you were backing the idea that North Korean troops were being sent to Ukraine or Kursk. I apologize for that. But I still am not certain to what degree NK troops would be undergoing training in Far Eastern Russia. Have you personally seen the imagery you describe, and feel you have the background to assess it? Why not send Russian experts to North Korea, if training on provided weapons systems, for instance, were involved?
Again, the reliability of U.S. and ROK statements on North Korean matters is hugely problematical, as is that of the "experts" who supply the media and/or government with their opinions. For instance, I turned from a disbeliever in Communist propaganda about U.S. use of biological weapons in the Korean War to a believer after I succeeded in examining the documentary evidence myself. It was an eye-opening experience! See https://open.substack.com/pub/kayej/p/new-revelations-on-germ-warfare-its?r=2t45z&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://11thrru.org/pdf/AgentBlue.pdf
I don't think Russia need +- 10.000 DPRK troops. But isn't this according international law? I thought a sovereign nation could ask military assistance from an other nation. Ukraine invaded Kursk so it seem legal for asking NK to help defend Russian territory. So why the western cries when everything is legal? Sounds more as a desperate call to draw NATO or even South Korea into the war. Definitely South Korea's is overacting.
Russia has the manufacturing running and will have export capacity when the war ends. I think they will supply weapons to all friendly nations now, that unwritten rule was broken by NATO. With weapons also comes training. Both Russia and Ukraine are now the most experienced armies in the world. It just makes sense to train your partners in modern warfare, drones, EW, assault missions, trenches,... This is a war that NATO wasn't prepared for.
Given the recently signed mutual defense treaty between the two countries, it’s unsurprising that North Korean troops would be training in Russia, thereby becoming familiar with modern Russian weaponry and tactics.
I can’t see any reason to assume from the mere fact of their presence that there is an intention by the governments of both countries to commit them to combat operations.
Of course, we see that the possibility of North Korean military assistance to Russia is causing great concern in the West, so perhaps the purpose of the orchestrated leaking of pics and videos is to demonstrate that Russia has a few asymmetrical cards up its sleeve which can be played as and when necessary.
Agree…if, as reported, the RF is recruiting tens of thousands of volunteers each month, it would seem that they don’t need them. I’m not sure it really matters all that much that they are training NK soldiers in the far east. It would seem that this would benefit NK far more than Russia.
Why do this to your readers, Stephen? I don't think many people here would expect such "refined " nonsense from you, which CNN and other unscrupulous liars are capable of?! "There is no doubt anymore"...??!
Your statement is complete nonsense.
"The Ukrainian agency was not willing to provide the original video file or details about the video’s provenance to The Times. The Times could not confirm the exact location or time the video was filmed. However, the interior matches military cafeteria design in Russia and Ukraine. " © NYT «These Videos Appear to Show North Korean Troops in Russia»
The tail is wagging the dog(Wag the dog movie) , in a stripped- down Ukrainian version ...
What about the F16 pilots SK. Is sending to Romania?
Have not heard any such thing.
A Telegram post from the relatively reliable Marat Khairullin claims that a full squadron of South Korean F-16 pilots have arrived in Romania.
What are they reliable relative to?
Sorry for delayed response; I've been away.Marat is probably the best war reporter out there...he is "fluff-free"...just the facts verified and vetted as best possible under the circumstances. He states that 16 SK pilots from a fighter wing were sent to operate F-16's out of Romanian airspace. Maybe a response to this? : https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/10/24/north-korean-combat-aviation-pilots-are-stationed-in-russia/
I don't have the comprehension of those who resort to ad hominem attacks to bother with them.
Can they read the dashboard legends that the Ukrainians cannot?
....they can actually fly them which the Ukrainians cannot.
Who flies the planes that the Ukrainian air force has?
If North Korean troops fight only on Russian soil, there will be no problem. It's Russia's business how it defends itself. Good move from Putin, and I guess he won't be in a rush to close the Kursk pocket.
Although...?! Russia , China and the DPRK ...This "North Korean landing" is beneficial in Western minds! How did "everyone" get nervous in response to the conclusion of a mutual defense Treaty between Russia and the DPRK !?
It is even very interesting - how will the United States "extinguish" its man-made "hotbeds of tension"?! Overthrow the government in Tehran and Pyongyang ? "As usual"? After decades of demonization of their regimes , blockades, sanctions ? What kind of fool, after all this pressure and lies, would buy into American "beads"? Zelensky won 't let you lie ...
RF and DPRK share a border, have a mutual defense treaty, and both have been repeatedly antagonized by the US under false pretenses, and suffered all manner of abuses and insults for the better part of a century. Why should they not cooperate?
Contrarily, UA and ROK do not share a border, nor a common enemy, nor have a comparable treaty. And besides that, PRC is an indispensable trade partner for ROK. Joining the US anti-China "chip wars" sanctions regime, is already a kick in the nuts to South Korean tech champion Samsung. They'll have to deal with being pushed out of the Chinese market, and simultaneously compete with a superior TSMC for a slice of a now smaller global chip pie. In an industry with absurd capital cost and prone to a single winner taking it all. China is eating their lunch in all kinds of classic industry too, like ship building, cars, appliances - comparable situation to Germany, though ROK has thus far been somewhat more pragmatic.
Finally, one might also ask if ROK really wants to be sending its fighting age men into this meat grinder. They have, if I'm not mistaken, the worst demographics of any developed country, something like 0.6 birth rate. One could then ask the same of DPRK, which had a lower population to start with.
The whole thing strikes me as a classic pseudo-news fap to distract from the BRICS summit. I suppose we'll see a week from now if there's any follow-up.
Maybe it is Russia's way of saying that if NATO troops are being used in the Ukraine, then they will use those of their ally, North Korea, in their country.
The worst development was N Korea and Russia signing a mutual defense treaty. Not only do we fear China coming to aid the N Koreans we now have Russia as well. With that kind of backup, its not hard to make an informed opinion that this will make Korea more dangerous. Could it be that N Korea is taking the opportunity to have his troops gain combat experience with a view towards a future war on the Korean peninsula. They might be a wooden leg for Russian Commanders but they certainly can be worth the trouble in the defense. Its all insanely dangerous. Biden and Europe set the world on fire and fixing that may or may not be possible now. Certainly this is one more step along the path to world war.
I believe Russia wanted access to NK's manufacturing capabilities, especially missiles and ammunition. NK wanted it for protection in case war happened on the peninsula. It certainly does not move us in any peaceful direction.
Why would the North Koreans be afraid. The South Koreans reproduce at a rate of 0.9 children per family. the lowest fertility rate of all nations. It's a sick society with no spiritual belief system other than beauty and money. In a few decades it will be gone without a single shot fired.
It doesn't move us away from peace any more than NATO missiles 5 minutes from Moscow in the Ukraine would,
The whole thing raises the question of WHY would Russia bring in North Koreans?
Feral Finster
The answer is they haven't. They have been training mid-level rank North Korean officers for years but that is nothing new. As everyone including this article points out there is no upside and plenty of downside to bringing in significant numbers of North Korean combat troops. The Russians have plenty of troops and no trouble recruiting more.
Zelensky's forces are getting wiped out in Kursk and he is looking for something to blame it on. The western media eats it up just like they eat up everything the Ukrainians post no matter how improbable.
I know this will come as a surprise to many in the west but not all Russians are white. The region where the supposed North Korean troops are have supposedly been observed doing basic training and outfitting is also the area where Russians have just completed a major recruiting drive. The local population there looks like North Koreans to Americans.
Possible, and I probably know more about Russia and Russians than most here.
There are two of us, colleague!
What do you know that anyone here doesn't?
I've lived and worked in Russia and in Russian, for one.
As Dick Cheney said when it was pointed out that most Americans opposed the attack on Iraq, "So?"
Maybe Russia is giving North Korea a way to occupy the Ukraine like Israel is Gaza.
Why wouldn't they if the Ukraine can bring in American "advisors" to target America munitions?
I'm stunned, that the reel reason for Russia and North Koreans to send North Korean soldiers to Russia haven't stucked any pundits in the West.
The war in Ukraine and Kursk oblast isn't just about winning, but also about preparing for the next war. All involved and around are preparing, so are the North Koreans. The best way of preparing is doing the real stuff, that's fighting. So that's what the North Koreans will do.
Zelenskys attempt to get to the nuclear power plant in Kursk, and trying to push Russia into Peace negotions gave the North Koreans the opportunity to fight on Russian soil.
The only remaining question will be, why does the Russians bring "the knowhow" and skills of modern land war to the North Koreans? The answer is quite clear - to tie up the Americans in another land war far from the shores of California, on the Korean peninsula. Surely the Americans would also loose that war, if they don't redraw before, cause again it's on Russian terms .
Blinken: "Now he’s turning to North Korean troops, and that is a clear sign of weakness.”
...As Putin rolls up the frontline in the South, East and in Kursk itself, before a few Koreans are given live battlefield training in Russia.
I remember Comical Ali back in 2003...
Russian commentator argues (contra FT) that all Russian moves with DPRK are approved by its chief patron China
https://t.me/vicktop55/27648