What Happened to Embraer Flight J2-8243?

Was it shot down and if so, who did it?

UPDATE: Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to Azerbaijan on December 28th for this “tragic incident.” He did not explicitly say what happened, but it is clear that the Russians are now taking full responsibility for the shoot down of Embraer Flight J2-8243.

On Christmas morning an Embraer E190 (Registration Number 4K-AZ65) crashed 3 km from Aktau airport in Kazakhstan. The crash was on land near the shore of the Caspian sea. The flight, originally from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny, Chechnya, has been diverted to Aktau. Exactly what happened to Flight J2-8243? Was it shot down? Was it a terrorist attack?

The initial story said that the flight was hit by a bird strike and was diverted to Aktau because Grozny airport was closed due to fog. That story was revised some time later to say that it was not a bird strike, but an oxygen cylinder used to pressurize the aircraft that (for some unknown reason) exploded on board, knocking out some of the aircraft's control mechanisms and electrical systems.

The cockpit to control tower recordings have not been released. Those recordings should be able to establish whether the Grozny airport was functioning, whether the Embraer tried to land (and how many times it made an approach to landing), what the pilots reported, and how the tower responded.

Shrapnel damage (or bullet holes or both) on the rear section of the Embraer

Evidence piled up after the plane crash showing significant shrapnel damage in the rear section and vertical stabilizer of the plane. When the aircraft crashed, most of the front half of the plane was consumed in fire. The rear section, however, broke off when the plane impacted the ground. It did not burn. Of the 29 known survivors of the crash, 22 of them were in the rear section. Authorities in Kazakhstan reported that 38 people died, including four from the crew of five (a woman flight attendant survived). There were 67 passengers and 5 crew members on the flight.

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday.

We now have extensive video and representations of the flight path of the aircraft. Survivors also have provided accounts.

Crash landing of Embraer (Caspian sea in background)

On Christmas morning Ukraine was sending suicide drones over Russian territory including Chechnya and Ingushetia. It is not clear if Grozny airport was actually closed because of the drone activity or because of fog, but it seems Flight J2-8242 had clearance to land at Grozny and made four attempts to do so. However, apparently the conditions were so poor that the plane finally had to divert. At the present time we do not know when the decision was made to divert and likewise we don't know when the plane was struck by "something."

A flight Map illustration can be found here.

It is also true that some information about the flight path around Grozny is unavailable. This may have been caused by very heavy jamming the Russians were using to try and stop the Ukrainian drone attack. Jammers would probably knock out all electronic communications while active.

The subsequent flight path of the aircraft late in its flight to Aktau was charted by flight tracking systems. This tells us that at least the flight's transponder was operating, suggesting that some of the plane's communications functioned.

The plane made a number of approaches to the airport at Aktau, at low altitude, but broke off any landing at least twice, perhaps more. The Embraer was at low altitude, around 2,000 feet, and never was able to climb much more than a few hundred feet. Judging from videos of the distressed aircraft, the pilot was having difficulty controlling the plane. It looked as if he could not operate either the plane's elevators or rear rudder, meaning he could only steer the plane using the ailerons on the wings and varying the thrust of the engines. When the plane crashed its landing gear was fully deployed although it appeared to be going too fast to land. The photos and videos don't appear to show the plane's flaps as down, normal for a landing.

Because the plane's rear section was broken off from the forward part of the fuselage, it did not burn. Photo evidence shows that the rear section was pockmarked by either shrapnel, bullets or both. There is also evidence from the inside of the rear section that some of the shrapnel penetrated the cabin and at least one passenger was wounded in the leg.

Speculation is mounting that the plane was hit by an air defense missile of some type. A larger missile would have torn the plane in half and it is unlikely it could have flown across the Caspian Sea, some 200 miles from Grozny. This could mean that the Embraer was hit by a MANPADS, a shoulder-fired missile. The most likely candidate would be the Russian-made 9K38 Igla. The Igla has an infrared seeker, and the missile it launches, called the 9M39, has a small blast fragmentation warhead of a little more than 1kg (1.17) of HMX (explosive). Some IGLA models have IFF embedded, but that would not matter against a civilian aircraft or most drones. As it is, it seems it was the Igla, or something similar, that tore up the cables that control the rear control surfaces.

If it proves true that the plane was downed by MANPADS, the question is whether it was friendly fire or if it was a terrorist operation? There is no way to answer that question, but shooting down a civilian airliner is in the repertoire of the Chechens, the Russians and the Ukrainians.