- Its economy is holding up better than the European economies.
- European leaders are unpopular and faltering.
- There's already been partial regime change in the US.
- Russian battlefield gains are accelerating with no end in sight.
- Putin's popularity is over 80% and hasn't fallen at all.
- Russia's international prestige has soared as they called the West's bluff economically & militarily.
- Russia's alliance with the world's industrial powerhouse, China, is rock solid.
- The West's international prestige has plummeted due to internal chaos, defeat in Ukraine, savagery in the Middle East, and plummeting economic power and political legitimacy.
So this is all another pipe dream. The war will go on until there is regime change in Ukraine and a more pro-Russian government comes to power. By that time, the US will be hunkering down in the western hemisphere while Europe will turn inwards with regime change across the board. Russia's status as a global superpower will be secure and, in alliance with China, will have more to offer the global south than the warmed over colonialism imagined by the Trump administration and the European Cold Warriors.
With tariffs by executive action already classified as unconstitutional, there already seems to be a partial regime change in the US. After midterms, we'll see the return to the impeachment spectacle. Poor US!
The Europeans and zelensky are like the black guy in blazing saddles who holds a gun to his own head and says “ Next man makes a move, the n——r gets it! “
They obviously love war so much, they’re willing to die to keep it going. Of course little zelensky wants to keep the skim going. But it’s colossally stupid for the Europeans to stay at it. They’re cutting their own throats.
What a farce. The Germans allowed someone to bomb their critical infrastructure without wanting to find out who it was (and we kind of all know it was the US) and now, they are supposed to give away the ownership of thwirnpipeline to the US, because they sanctioned Russia.
If Germany had an inch decency left and weren't a full blown US puppet, they would have kicked out all US troops out of Germany and make peace with Russia. Instead they sanctioned Russia and are now dependent on the US for LNG gas imports that costs them 4 times as much as Russian gas.
But none of the parties here are reasonable. Reasoning left the room 2014 when someone orchestrated the Maidan and started this entire mess.
'the Big 3) argue that Russia is an existential threat '
If they were serious they'd reinstated conscription long ago.
'They see it as crucial to rebuild Europe’s armies'
Read that as 'They see it as an opportunity to invest EU debt into their own economies. EU debt underwritten by the economcally healthy EU member states DE, AT, NL, FI. and invested in industries creativdely described as 'defense', just like covid funds ended up at exotic industrial destinatons.
True nationalists in Europe have little quarrel with Russia: Their true enemy is in Brussels. Germany, in particular, will be more than happy to start purchasing Russian gas again.
The US & EU are agreement incapable. No deal will be made, Russia will not be fooled again.
For Germany to support such a deal, they would need a coalition of CDU and AFD. Not going to happen, as it is likely that if push comes to shove, CDU will greenlight outlawing the AFD. The current German Supreme Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) would be happy to do that, if a parliamentary supermajority applies for this. It already indicated so in several minor test trials. At the moment, Die Linke, Grüne and SPD all want this, the only undecided player is just the CDU. Even the CSU (Bavarian sister party of CDU) would support outlawing AFD.
The 28 points _Ukraine Russia Peace Deal Framework_ acknowledged in point 2 that 30 years of ambiguities on security in Europe had to be settled; in points 3 & 7 that NATO would not expand further; in point 4 that a dialogue would be held between Russia, NATO and the US; in point 17 that validity of treaties such as Start 1 would be extended; in point 18 that Ukraine would remain a non-nuclear state.
If these security concerns are not addressed, any peace treaty would be void ou useless.
There have been reports (don't know about the accuracy) that the Russian gas reserves which previously had been earmarked for supplying Europe have now been re-committed to Russia's expanding gas supply to China. Even if the Euros begged, Russia no longer has uncommitted reserves to sell them.
Evil England wants war, as do the EU bureaucrats and foolish European politicians. And Zelensky wants war. The proxy war in the Ukraine will continue. Remember, foolish violent Europeans have had a 30 Years War and a Hundred Years War. There is no need for the current European war to end anytime soon. Let's hope that even US Democrats are not so dumb that they want to involve the US in yet another of Europe's interminable wars.
Your article is what happens when moral cowardice dresses itself up as geopolitical realism.
You reduce war, occupation, sovereignty, and human suffering to a pipeline-and-ownership puzzle, as if the central question were who gets to profit from gas flows rather than who started the aggression and who is paying for it in blood.
Yes, great powers shape environments. Yes, the West has made grave strategic mistakes. But Russia still bears primary responsibility for invading, occupying, terrorizing, and trying to break a neighboring nation. That does not disappear because someone can imagine a clever restructuring of Nord Stream.
The real problem with your piece is not just factual sloppiness. It is moral inversion. You write as though economic convenience can outrank principle. It cannot. A pipeline is not a higher value than sovereignty, and “deal logic” without morality is just corruption with analytical vocabulary.
If the Europeans and Zelensky won't deal, the US needs to walk away and let Europe try keeping Ukraine in the war. As it stands now, there is no path to victory for Ukraine. If the US walks away, the war will end sooner.
What does a deal have to look like for Putin to sell it domestically? It has to be good enough to justify the sacrifices the Russians have made. That, I am sure, involves some form of territorial concession from Ukraine.
Russia seems to be winning the war.
- Its economy is holding up better than the European economies.
- European leaders are unpopular and faltering.
- There's already been partial regime change in the US.
- Russian battlefield gains are accelerating with no end in sight.
- Putin's popularity is over 80% and hasn't fallen at all.
- Russia's international prestige has soared as they called the West's bluff economically & militarily.
- Russia's alliance with the world's industrial powerhouse, China, is rock solid.
- The West's international prestige has plummeted due to internal chaos, defeat in Ukraine, savagery in the Middle East, and plummeting economic power and political legitimacy.
So this is all another pipe dream. The war will go on until there is regime change in Ukraine and a more pro-Russian government comes to power. By that time, the US will be hunkering down in the western hemisphere while Europe will turn inwards with regime change across the board. Russia's status as a global superpower will be secure and, in alliance with China, will have more to offer the global south than the warmed over colonialism imagined by the Trump administration and the European Cold Warriors.
Moscow Dan? is that you?
With tariffs by executive action already classified as unconstitutional, there already seems to be a partial regime change in the US. After midterms, we'll see the return to the impeachment spectacle. Poor US!
The Europeans and zelensky are like the black guy in blazing saddles who holds a gun to his own head and says “ Next man makes a move, the n——r gets it! “
They obviously love war so much, they’re willing to die to keep it going. Of course little zelensky wants to keep the skim going. But it’s colossally stupid for the Europeans to stay at it. They’re cutting their own throats.
What a farce. The Germans allowed someone to bomb their critical infrastructure without wanting to find out who it was (and we kind of all know it was the US) and now, they are supposed to give away the ownership of thwirnpipeline to the US, because they sanctioned Russia.
If Germany had an inch decency left and weren't a full blown US puppet, they would have kicked out all US troops out of Germany and make peace with Russia. Instead they sanctioned Russia and are now dependent on the US for LNG gas imports that costs them 4 times as much as Russian gas.
But none of the parties here are reasonable. Reasoning left the room 2014 when someone orchestrated the Maidan and started this entire mess.
'the Big 3) argue that Russia is an existential threat '
If they were serious they'd reinstated conscription long ago.
'They see it as crucial to rebuild Europe’s armies'
Read that as 'They see it as an opportunity to invest EU debt into their own economies. EU debt underwritten by the economcally healthy EU member states DE, AT, NL, FI. and invested in industries creativdely described as 'defense', just like covid funds ended up at exotic industrial destinatons.
Meanwhile 'The British military is skint and too small to fight' https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/the-british-military-is-skint-and
Not even 1 division left...
True nationalists in Europe have little quarrel with Russia: Their true enemy is in Brussels. Germany, in particular, will be more than happy to start purchasing Russian gas again.
The US & EU are agreement incapable. No deal will be made, Russia will not be fooled again.
How many boys will get killed while these assholes jawbone!
LNG ia about 4 or 5 times as expensive as pipeline gas. USA can only supply LNG to EuropeThe pipeline gas supplier wins in Europe.
For Germany to support such a deal, they would need a coalition of CDU and AFD. Not going to happen, as it is likely that if push comes to shove, CDU will greenlight outlawing the AFD. The current German Supreme Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) would be happy to do that, if a parliamentary supermajority applies for this. It already indicated so in several minor test trials. At the moment, Die Linke, Grüne and SPD all want this, the only undecided player is just the CDU. Even the CSU (Bavarian sister party of CDU) would support outlawing AFD.
The 28 points _Ukraine Russia Peace Deal Framework_ acknowledged in point 2 that 30 years of ambiguities on security in Europe had to be settled; in points 3 & 7 that NATO would not expand further; in point 4 that a dialogue would be held between Russia, NATO and the US; in point 17 that validity of treaties such as Start 1 would be extended; in point 18 that Ukraine would remain a non-nuclear state.
If these security concerns are not addressed, any peace treaty would be void ou useless.
There have been reports (don't know about the accuracy) that the Russian gas reserves which previously had been earmarked for supplying Europe have now been re-committed to Russia's expanding gas supply to China. Even if the Euros begged, Russia no longer has uncommitted reserves to sell them.
Evil England wants war, as do the EU bureaucrats and foolish European politicians. And Zelensky wants war. The proxy war in the Ukraine will continue. Remember, foolish violent Europeans have had a 30 Years War and a Hundred Years War. There is no need for the current European war to end anytime soon. Let's hope that even US Democrats are not so dumb that they want to involve the US in yet another of Europe's interminable wars.
Your article is what happens when moral cowardice dresses itself up as geopolitical realism.
You reduce war, occupation, sovereignty, and human suffering to a pipeline-and-ownership puzzle, as if the central question were who gets to profit from gas flows rather than who started the aggression and who is paying for it in blood.
Yes, great powers shape environments. Yes, the West has made grave strategic mistakes. But Russia still bears primary responsibility for invading, occupying, terrorizing, and trying to break a neighboring nation. That does not disappear because someone can imagine a clever restructuring of Nord Stream.
The real problem with your piece is not just factual sloppiness. It is moral inversion. You write as though economic convenience can outrank principle. It cannot. A pipeline is not a higher value than sovereignty, and “deal logic” without morality is just corruption with analytical vocabulary.
If the Europeans and Zelensky won't deal, the US needs to walk away and let Europe try keeping Ukraine in the war. As it stands now, there is no path to victory for Ukraine. If the US walks away, the war will end sooner.
Thanks for your great work Stephen!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
What does a deal have to look like for Putin to sell it domestically? It has to be good enough to justify the sacrifices the Russians have made. That, I am sure, involves some form of territorial concession from Ukraine.