I believe this analysis – sorry Stephen – is completely flawed. In my opinion, the error stems from a false premise:
1. Trump spoke from a "position of strength",
2. The Russian army is incapable of...
3. The US could unleash its "unparalleled" military power against Russia in Ukraine at any time...
I consider all three points to be wishful thinking. All the data and reports about dwindling US weapons arsenals sound credible and are confirmed by supply stoppages or "relocation of weapons" (South Korea). In Iran, the US, as a dependent follower of Israel, cannot win. They will leave behind a bombed-out country (like in Iraq, Syria, Libya...), but they will not defeat the Iranians. What will remain is another failed state that once flourished.
Russia, however, will not back down from its demands, as they are vital for Russia's survival:
1. No NATO membership for Ukraine, no NATO soldiers in Ukraine,
2. The transfer of territory to Russia, including Donbas, Crimea, and the two other oblasts (at least as far as the Dnieper River). This could have been completely prevented during the 2022 negotiations in Istanbul – the EU, US, and UK didn't want it. If the negotiations are further delayed, Odessa could also be added to Russia's agenda.
3. A peace treaty that takes into account the interests of both (direct) warring parties, Russia and Ukraine.
4. The elimination of Nazis in Ukraine should ideally have the support of everyone in the world, but apparently it doesn't. The West doesn't care about Nazis if they serve its interests (von Braun - NASA as an example).
Russia will not back down from these demands – this is about fundamental principles. Trump can talk all he wants about deep bomb craters in Iranian girls' schools...
It's also important to note that Russia always treats the US with exceptional diplomatic courtesy. However, don't mistakenly assume that Russia is unaware of the role the US has played in the creation of the Ukraine conflict since 1995. It was only due to the admittedly waning economic power of the US that Russia accepted the US as a negotiator. Despite steadily increasing sanctions since 2014, the Russian economy has not yet collapsed.
Russia has also developed a solution for Starlink. For Telegram, the Russians have long had an alternative. And we haven't even talked about China. China won't abandon Russia for a few soybeans from American farmers. China knows that it's the next target.
It's time, even for respected US analysts and former undersecretaries, to take a closer look at the realities outside the country. It's absolutely crucial to take off the American lens and question the belief in "God's own country."
Russia is making steady advances on the ground. These gains, while painfully obtained by ground troops in the face of drone warfare, are irreversible. On the other hand, the prospect of enduring Western victory in Iran is miniscule.
How is Ukraine supposed to "rebuild its forces"? Who in their right mind would want to fight against Russia in Ukraine? Russia, on the other hand, has greater numbers and greater enthusiasm for the war. Ukraine was part of Russia for hundreds of years. They speak Russian. Many Russians have relatives there. The CIA helped topple the Ukrainian government and is trying to assassinate Russian leaders. Russians are slowly but surely gaining ground and exhausting their sworn enemies (many of whom are neo-Nazis - https://azovlobby.substack.com/p/how-we-learned-to-stop-worrying-and).
Dan, I agree with everything. Except for one word: "war-enthusiastic" The Russians are by no means as war-enthusiastic as they are portrayed in Western media. They also want peace, like all people in the world who don't profit from war.
Perhaps it's a translation error; my English isn't very good and I'm using an AI translator. "war-enthusiastic" translates roughly to "people who love wars" in German.
Good catch. Rather than enthusiasm, xI should have said the Russians, in general, are commited to achieving the objectives of the war. In contrast, the Westerrn public is not so committed and has been punishing their leaders accordingly in elections. The Ukrainians are very much divided as this started as a civil war.
Similarly, with regard to the war in Iran, the West is divided. Trump's popularity is falling, Europe is uncommitted. and Israel has deeply divided for some time now. Iran has been a pariah nation for a long time but now has more powerful allies who have demonstrated an ability to successfully fight the West.
Of course, you're right.It's just that Americans perceive their arrogance as "preference-based self-confidence." Hence the "crooked" solutions of crosswords.
why are Russia's demands "extreme" and why should Russia modify anything? Russian is winning the war and no deal with Ukraine or the US would be worth the paper it's printed on. Neither the US nor Ukraine, nor the European vassal states can be trusted to comply with any agreement, as the very recent history shows us. This war will be settled when the Russians decide to end it.
At first I thought this was an exercise is extreme irony... until I realized that you are quite serious with your take on the state of things with respect to the SMO and the U.S. / Israeli war against Iran.
The situation, in both instances, could not be more contrary to your accounts, with Trump having absolutely no leverage with Russia and experiencing unanticipated resistance and resilience from Iran, which has successfully depleted U.S., Israeli and Gulf State missile defenses and forced the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln to steam back out to sea.
It's very difficult to understand how you can be so disconnected from facts when they are easily discovered with minimal effort.
exact , si Trump a téléphoné à Poutine c'est pour demander de l'aide car il se trouve dans une impasse et cherche sortie de l'impasse Iran comme ses conseillers lui ont souhaités et a d"autres chats à fouetter que le marécage ukrainien
It is quite obvious that Iran does not intend to destroy the American military, Israelis and, of course, aircraft carriers, destroyers, planes. The Iranians have more strategic intentions, pragmatism and self-confidence than can be seen and heard from the statements of experts or Trump.
I guess this is a reasonable understanding if one gets their news from Murdoch via Fox. I’ve seen clips that would make baghdad bob jealous.
As for winning, pulling Patriots and THAAD systems from the Pacific isn’t winning. Neither is the awkward fact that replacing the radars and missiles has a slight issue with rare earths.
Who would have imagined giving control over your weapons production to your #1 geopolitical adversary was a good idea??????!??!
I'm glad the commenters here put the case that Iran and Russia are winning. I would just add that I think USrael starting a war on Iran will be seen as one of the greatest military blunders in history. I would have thought that someone with "Strategy" in their page title might be a little more percipient.
The fact that Trump called Putin, and not the other way around, is an indication that it is the US that is looking for an off ramp.
What does "winning" in Iran look like? The US and Israel have killed one leader, only to have him replaced by his more hardline son. The hoped for regime change seems to be nowhere in sight. And Iran, once a pariah nation, is slowly but surely becoming stronger militarily via its alliance with Russia and China. If the ability to bomb places is an indicator of winning, than the US won in Vietnam and Afghanistan. On the other hand, if the ability to persevere and galvanize public support is key, then Russia is winning in Ukraine and Iran is winning in the Middle East. That's my opinion, and I appreciate the opportunity to express it here.
The compromise you suggest was what was arrived at in the Minsk I & II accords, and it was rejected by the West so NATO could get a foothold in Ukraine. The Iranian conflict has pretty much shutdown any resupply of Ukraine as the US high tech weapons are now being reserved for use by the US military.
The fact that Ukraine has to move it's reserves around is a de factor admission that they have run out of manpower. In the end Russia will grind out a very expensive but successful incorporation of the Donbas as a buffer zone which is what, already about 80% complete. At that point the shooting will end and for whatever fig leaf the west wants to put on it, the Donbas will not be controlled by Ukraine.
Final point. Absolute fantasy to believe Trump is going to go from a massive conflict in Iran to committing to intervention in Ukraine. NATO is a paper tiger. The UK can't even provide a single anti-air frigate to protect Cypress. More likely to see Trump walk away from both NATO and Ukraine and let the EU handle it.
Nukes in Iran was a threat to the US, Russians in the Donbas are not.
On the other hand, oil prices are way up which is great for Russia and very bad for Ukraine's EU bankrollers. I am also not so sure Iran is going great and will be over soon, just because Hegseth and Trump say it is.
Juggling this much White House bullshit in with your usual Kremlin "narratives," is impressive (like a huge pile of cow manure). But you're pissing off all of your fans - the vatniks and the tankies.
NO and He’ll NO, why should it, U.S and U.K started this shit show, suck it up, end of conflict will be on Russias terms, there is no one to negotiate with, the Iran double cross after similar betrayals whilst in negotiations with HAMAS their negotiators were assassinated…
Russia has no credible actors to negotiate with they will as hastily been stated often, settle this on the battlefield fighting until all objectives of the SMO are met….
Amazing just how ignorant of an oft repeated position you happen to be… so typical, meanwhile your getting your arse handed to you in Iran… stay in your lane the world’s had enough of your nations obtuse behaviour… you are a pariah nation and people, persona non grata, despised the world over… meaningfully clean up your house, oust the Zionist filth and neocons from your midst and show the world true intent to clean and start over, until then as noted, the world has put the U.S on notice, your not wanted nor welcome… get use to it, in case there is any doubt regarding Russias position I’ll defer to someone much better than I to enunciate clearly Russias position Prof Alexander Dugin, PhD, philosopher, adviser to Russian President and Government, who lost his daughter Daria Dugina to your CIA’s orchestrated assassination … Prof Dugin wrote yesterday… 09.03.2026 Moscow STD Time
“We must stand firmly on our own positions—sovereignty, the civilization-state, multipolarity—and consistently move towards victory in Ukraine. The United States and the West as a whole are our mortal enemy.
We are at war with them today, and tomorrow we will continue to fight them, perhaps even more fiercely. This must be the starting point.
For now, however, it is a deadly dragon that, in its agony, destroys everything in its path. This is extremely dangerous, yet only one course remains: to finish it off completely—by any means necessary.
Let Trump destroy the old world to its very foundations. There is no need to cling to what has exhausted itself. The time has come to build a new world, in which Russia must occupy the place it deserves—the place that rightfully belongs to it. That place is the position of a subject, not an object. We do not need what belongs to others, yet Eurasia belongs to us.
(Translated from the Russian)
Not much to add really, rather succinct and unequivocal one could say.. but I would recommend you listen to Foreign Minister Lavrov’s recent speeches, Putin’s recent speeches of the last 2 weeks in particular especially his most recent meeting confirming Russia will terminate immediately supply of Energy resources to the E.Unin favour of supplying and building enduring relationships with new dependable customers given the E.U statement to end all Russian energy purchases, Putin’s rationale, why supply a customer stating it doesn’t want your product, better to end that relationship and supply especially at this time of an energy squeeze customers who will be more reliable and appreciative… makes perfect sense… tough on the E.U save Hungary and Slovakia who Putin confirms Russia will continue to supply on favourable terms… especially presently… just saying
Let us remind Stephen that Donbass is Russia speaking filled with ethnic Russians. The war will be fought till its conclusion. It costs Russia dearly, yes but Russians are willing to pay the price.
<<<<< President Trump was speaking from a strong position in light of the tremendous success so far in Iran <<<<<<
Is this supposed to be a joke?
Quite - given a choice between Trump propaganda and Russian propaganda, Russia is the one to go with 99% of the time.
Hint - the winning side does not need to lie and can conserve its credibility for later.
oui et Israel passe une bande video d'un jeu montrant l'attaque de B2 sur l'Iran
sources HAREETZ journal
Depends,are you Iranian?
I believe this analysis – sorry Stephen – is completely flawed. In my opinion, the error stems from a false premise:
1. Trump spoke from a "position of strength",
2. The Russian army is incapable of...
3. The US could unleash its "unparalleled" military power against Russia in Ukraine at any time...
I consider all three points to be wishful thinking. All the data and reports about dwindling US weapons arsenals sound credible and are confirmed by supply stoppages or "relocation of weapons" (South Korea). In Iran, the US, as a dependent follower of Israel, cannot win. They will leave behind a bombed-out country (like in Iraq, Syria, Libya...), but they will not defeat the Iranians. What will remain is another failed state that once flourished.
Russia, however, will not back down from its demands, as they are vital for Russia's survival:
1. No NATO membership for Ukraine, no NATO soldiers in Ukraine,
2. The transfer of territory to Russia, including Donbas, Crimea, and the two other oblasts (at least as far as the Dnieper River). This could have been completely prevented during the 2022 negotiations in Istanbul – the EU, US, and UK didn't want it. If the negotiations are further delayed, Odessa could also be added to Russia's agenda.
3. A peace treaty that takes into account the interests of both (direct) warring parties, Russia and Ukraine.
4. The elimination of Nazis in Ukraine should ideally have the support of everyone in the world, but apparently it doesn't. The West doesn't care about Nazis if they serve its interests (von Braun - NASA as an example).
Russia will not back down from these demands – this is about fundamental principles. Trump can talk all he wants about deep bomb craters in Iranian girls' schools...
It's also important to note that Russia always treats the US with exceptional diplomatic courtesy. However, don't mistakenly assume that Russia is unaware of the role the US has played in the creation of the Ukraine conflict since 1995. It was only due to the admittedly waning economic power of the US that Russia accepted the US as a negotiator. Despite steadily increasing sanctions since 2014, the Russian economy has not yet collapsed.
Russia has also developed a solution for Starlink. For Telegram, the Russians have long had an alternative. And we haven't even talked about China. China won't abandon Russia for a few soybeans from American farmers. China knows that it's the next target.
It's time, even for respected US analysts and former undersecretaries, to take a closer look at the realities outside the country. It's absolutely crucial to take off the American lens and question the belief in "God's own country."
Well said Stjopa.
Russia is making steady advances on the ground. These gains, while painfully obtained by ground troops in the face of drone warfare, are irreversible. On the other hand, the prospect of enduring Western victory in Iran is miniscule.
How is Ukraine supposed to "rebuild its forces"? Who in their right mind would want to fight against Russia in Ukraine? Russia, on the other hand, has greater numbers and greater enthusiasm for the war. Ukraine was part of Russia for hundreds of years. They speak Russian. Many Russians have relatives there. The CIA helped topple the Ukrainian government and is trying to assassinate Russian leaders. Russians are slowly but surely gaining ground and exhausting their sworn enemies (many of whom are neo-Nazis - https://azovlobby.substack.com/p/how-we-learned-to-stop-worrying-and).
Dan, I agree with everything. Except for one word: "war-enthusiastic" The Russians are by no means as war-enthusiastic as they are portrayed in Western media. They also want peace, like all people in the world who don't profit from war.
Perhaps it's a translation error; my English isn't very good and I'm using an AI translator. "war-enthusiastic" translates roughly to "people who love wars" in German.
Good catch. Rather than enthusiasm, xI should have said the Russians, in general, are commited to achieving the objectives of the war. In contrast, the Westerrn public is not so committed and has been punishing their leaders accordingly in elections. The Ukrainians are very much divided as this started as a civil war.
Similarly, with regard to the war in Iran, the West is divided. Trump's popularity is falling, Europe is uncommitted. and Israel has deeply divided for some time now. Iran has been a pariah nation for a long time but now has more powerful allies who have demonstrated an ability to successfully fight the West.
Of course, you're right.It's just that Americans perceive their arrogance as "preference-based self-confidence." Hence the "crooked" solutions of crosswords.
why are Russia's demands "extreme" and why should Russia modify anything? Russian is winning the war and no deal with Ukraine or the US would be worth the paper it's printed on. Neither the US nor Ukraine, nor the European vassal states can be trusted to comply with any agreement, as the very recent history shows us. This war will be settled when the Russians decide to end it.
At first I thought this was an exercise is extreme irony... until I realized that you are quite serious with your take on the state of things with respect to the SMO and the U.S. / Israeli war against Iran.
The situation, in both instances, could not be more contrary to your accounts, with Trump having absolutely no leverage with Russia and experiencing unanticipated resistance and resilience from Iran, which has successfully depleted U.S., Israeli and Gulf State missile defenses and forced the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln to steam back out to sea.
It's very difficult to understand how you can be so disconnected from facts when they are easily discovered with minimal effort.
exact , si Trump a téléphoné à Poutine c'est pour demander de l'aide car il se trouve dans une impasse et cherche sortie de l'impasse Iran comme ses conseillers lui ont souhaités et a d"autres chats à fouetter que le marécage ukrainien
It is quite obvious that Iran does not intend to destroy the American military, Israelis and, of course, aircraft carriers, destroyers, planes. The Iranians have more strategic intentions, pragmatism and self-confidence than can be seen and heard from the statements of experts or Trump.
Next time I'll skip the post and just read the commenters - they all seem to be way ahead of Stephen
bien vu on devrait être rétribuer !
I guess this is a reasonable understanding if one gets their news from Murdoch via Fox. I’ve seen clips that would make baghdad bob jealous.
As for winning, pulling Patriots and THAAD systems from the Pacific isn’t winning. Neither is the awkward fact that replacing the radars and missiles has a slight issue with rare earths.
Who would have imagined giving control over your weapons production to your #1 geopolitical adversary was a good idea??????!??!
I'm glad the commenters here put the case that Iran and Russia are winning. I would just add that I think USrael starting a war on Iran will be seen as one of the greatest military blunders in history. I would have thought that someone with "Strategy" in their page title might be a little more percipient.
The fact that Trump called Putin, and not the other way around, is an indication that it is the US that is looking for an off ramp.
What does "winning" in Iran look like? The US and Israel have killed one leader, only to have him replaced by his more hardline son. The hoped for regime change seems to be nowhere in sight. And Iran, once a pariah nation, is slowly but surely becoming stronger militarily via its alliance with Russia and China. If the ability to bomb places is an indicator of winning, than the US won in Vietnam and Afghanistan. On the other hand, if the ability to persevere and galvanize public support is key, then Russia is winning in Ukraine and Iran is winning in the Middle East. That's my opinion, and I appreciate the opportunity to express it here.
The compromise you suggest was what was arrived at in the Minsk I & II accords, and it was rejected by the West so NATO could get a foothold in Ukraine. The Iranian conflict has pretty much shutdown any resupply of Ukraine as the US high tech weapons are now being reserved for use by the US military.
The fact that Ukraine has to move it's reserves around is a de factor admission that they have run out of manpower. In the end Russia will grind out a very expensive but successful incorporation of the Donbas as a buffer zone which is what, already about 80% complete. At that point the shooting will end and for whatever fig leaf the west wants to put on it, the Donbas will not be controlled by Ukraine.
Final point. Absolute fantasy to believe Trump is going to go from a massive conflict in Iran to committing to intervention in Ukraine. NATO is a paper tiger. The UK can't even provide a single anti-air frigate to protect Cypress. More likely to see Trump walk away from both NATO and Ukraine and let the EU handle it.
Nukes in Iran was a threat to the US, Russians in the Donbas are not.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
On the other hand, oil prices are way up which is great for Russia and very bad for Ukraine's EU bankrollers. I am also not so sure Iran is going great and will be over soon, just because Hegseth and Trump say it is.
Oil prices are up, but not way up.
Wait a couple of more days lol
Juggling this much White House bullshit in with your usual Kremlin "narratives," is impressive (like a huge pile of cow manure). But you're pissing off all of your fans - the vatniks and the tankies.
NO and He’ll NO, why should it, U.S and U.K started this shit show, suck it up, end of conflict will be on Russias terms, there is no one to negotiate with, the Iran double cross after similar betrayals whilst in negotiations with HAMAS their negotiators were assassinated…
Russia has no credible actors to negotiate with they will as hastily been stated often, settle this on the battlefield fighting until all objectives of the SMO are met….
Amazing just how ignorant of an oft repeated position you happen to be… so typical, meanwhile your getting your arse handed to you in Iran… stay in your lane the world’s had enough of your nations obtuse behaviour… you are a pariah nation and people, persona non grata, despised the world over… meaningfully clean up your house, oust the Zionist filth and neocons from your midst and show the world true intent to clean and start over, until then as noted, the world has put the U.S on notice, your not wanted nor welcome… get use to it, in case there is any doubt regarding Russias position I’ll defer to someone much better than I to enunciate clearly Russias position Prof Alexander Dugin, PhD, philosopher, adviser to Russian President and Government, who lost his daughter Daria Dugina to your CIA’s orchestrated assassination … Prof Dugin wrote yesterday… 09.03.2026 Moscow STD Time
“We must stand firmly on our own positions—sovereignty, the civilization-state, multipolarity—and consistently move towards victory in Ukraine. The United States and the West as a whole are our mortal enemy.
We are at war with them today, and tomorrow we will continue to fight them, perhaps even more fiercely. This must be the starting point.
For now, however, it is a deadly dragon that, in its agony, destroys everything in its path. This is extremely dangerous, yet only one course remains: to finish it off completely—by any means necessary.
Let Trump destroy the old world to its very foundations. There is no need to cling to what has exhausted itself. The time has come to build a new world, in which Russia must occupy the place it deserves—the place that rightfully belongs to it. That place is the position of a subject, not an object. We do not need what belongs to others, yet Eurasia belongs to us.
(Translated from the Russian)
Not much to add really, rather succinct and unequivocal one could say.. but I would recommend you listen to Foreign Minister Lavrov’s recent speeches, Putin’s recent speeches of the last 2 weeks in particular especially his most recent meeting confirming Russia will terminate immediately supply of Energy resources to the E.Unin favour of supplying and building enduring relationships with new dependable customers given the E.U statement to end all Russian energy purchases, Putin’s rationale, why supply a customer stating it doesn’t want your product, better to end that relationship and supply especially at this time of an energy squeeze customers who will be more reliable and appreciative… makes perfect sense… tough on the E.U save Hungary and Slovakia who Putin confirms Russia will continue to supply on favourable terms… especially presently… just saying
Kia Kaha (stay strong) from New Zealand
It was Trump that called Putin - not the other way around.
That really says it all about Stephens brave attempt to cope with the pesky realities.
Let us remind Stephen that Donbass is Russia speaking filled with ethnic Russians. The war will be fought till its conclusion. It costs Russia dearly, yes but Russians are willing to pay the price.
How will Ukraine rebuild its forces? From whence will the bodies come?
Jay-zus. You're smoking hopium if you think Iran is being defeated or that the Ukrainian army isn't collapsing.
Fortunately, there's a cure. Subscribe to me and find a path to enlightenment.