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Robert Yates's avatar

Until Russian security concerns are addressed or Ukraine defeated, the war will continue. And NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine is a nonstarter.

John's avatar

"Russian security concerns." - That's funny. Stop invading other countries. Then Russian soldiers can stop dying and your oil infrastructure might stop exploding and burning.

Alan's avatar

Snippets from:

Commentary by Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Donald Trump

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78237

"The conversation lasted almost two and a half hours. Clearly, it was a rather substantive and at the same time very open and frank exchange."

"The issue of potential supplies of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine was also raised."

"In this context, it is worthy of note that the presidents discussed the possibility of holding another personal meeting. This is indeed a very significant development. It was agreed that representatives of both countries would immediately begin preparations for the summit, which could potentially be organised in Budapest, for instance."

There are a number of interesting details, but you can use the link I provided to read the full publication.

My general conclusion from Ushakov's comments is that they convey less certainty about a Trump-Putin meeting than is portrayed in US media reports.

Alan's avatar

I will underline this sentence in Ushakov's report:

"Clearly, it was a rather substantive and at the same time very open and frank exchange."

In normal Diplomat-speak, a FRANK exchange means those in the discussion DISAGREED about a significant topic or topics.

That is not surprising.

It does make it less logical to allow hope to raise expectations, excessively.

barnabus's avatar

Open and Frank means disagreement on almost everything.

Marshall Eubanks's avatar

Open and frank frequently means shouting.

ron's avatar

Yeah, I wondered about how it could be arranged so definitely without a whole lot of discussion about how it would work. If nothing else, there is the whole arrest warrant for Pres. Putin issued by the E.U. thing to clear up first.

Unwoke in Idaho's avatar

Uh, maybe because talks have been ongoing for a while and Trump doesn’t leak nor his people this time?

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Didn't The Bibi go to Hungary under the same circumstances in relation to the ICC or the ICJ?

ron's avatar

I'm not sure if he actually went to Hungary. Because of Bibi, Orban did initiate the year long withdrawal process from ICC that would free the country from the treaty obligation to enforce the ruling.

Alan's avatar

Before the Alaska meeting, I presumed the 2 sides subordinates had already negotiated agreements for the Leaders to sign during the meeting.

They made no written agreements that were made public, although there were undertakings to improve bilateral relations. But these, including an offer of an Arms Control extension, resumption of airline services, and return of confiscated real property, have yet to happen.

While standard practice and logic suggests another meeting would not be scheduled without concrete agreements already agreed upon, like Minsk 2, learning from prior failure is not assured.

As Mr. Berra observed about the 1973 baseball season, "It ain't over 'til it's over."

Alan's avatar

A Ukrainian MP reports that the Tomahawks topic at today's White House meeting has been put on hold.

An agreement or the price of admission to a Trump-Putin meeting?

Martin's avatar

There was never any realistic prospect of Tomahawks.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Certainly there is a realistic prospect. If whatever Trump hopes for is stymied at his Putin meet, he could very well rashly escalate: Even do so with the belief that it is of no consequence, or to blame the Kievans in some way. The probability of his sending a few still remains lower than not doing so, however, in my "guestimate".

Marshall Eubanks's avatar

How on Earth can V. V. Putin get to Hungary? In my opinion he would be a fool to overfly any NATO country (excepting Hungary, of course), regardless of any assurances that might be granted to him, and, while he may be many things, a fool is not one of them.

Chung Leong's avatar

Through Poland and Slovakia, escorted by American F-22 and F-35, as was the case for the summit in Alaska.

Martin's avatar

Poland? Is that a joke?

The least worst option would be via Black Sea, Bulgaria and Serbia, but Bulgaria seems pretty problematic.

Chung Leong's avatar

No, it's not a joke. I live in Poland. I know that an Iskander missile fired from Kaliningrad carrying a nuclear warhead can reach Warsaw in 12 minutes and Krakow in 20 minutes. I've actually identified an underground toilet near my house where I might survive in the event of an attack.

The notion that Poland would shoot down Putin's plane is, frankly, borderline retarded.

John's avatar

Nuclear armed Iskander, Kaniningrad to Warsaw in 2-minutes, to Krakow in 3-minutes.

Martin's avatar

Of course Poland wouldn't shoot down Putin's plane... because it would never be in Polish airspace.

No way the Polish leadership would agree to that - and no way Putin would trust them not to try and escort his plane down so they could arrest him, if they did.

Chung Leong's avatar

If America cannot provide something so basic as safe passage, then we're not capable of delivering on promises at the negotiation. No normal flight route means no normalization in the future. Why should the Russians show up at all? They're not desperate for these talks to happen. They don't need to sneak into Budapest through some torturous route. We're the ones who're desperate. President Trump doesn't even try to hide this. It's up to us to get our alliance to fall in line.

The Polish leadership is utterly reckless. I can see a scenario where the Russians deliberately provoking the Poles into withdrawing consent at the last minute. Then we're faced with the choice of abandoning the talks or accepting the humiliation of Trump flying into Minsk.

Martin's avatar

Polish leadership is indeed utterly reckless.

They helped blow up Nordstream, lied about it, and are openly obstructing the German investigation and justifying the attack.

No one in their right kind would trust them, even if they agreed to waive airspace restrictions - which for domestic political reasons among others, they wouldn't, anyway.

I and many others think talk of Budapest thing, as of Tomahawks, which Western MSM take or took seriously, is just diversionary, and neither was ever intended to actually happen.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Could be Bulgaria's "Coming-Out Party" in applying for BRICS membership, while keeping a foot in the Atlantic camp. A bold, groundbreaking attempt!

barnabus's avatar

Iran, Iraq, Syria and Serbia?

Chung Leong's avatar

Couple days from now JD Vance will be stopping by Poland on some unknown mission. It may or may not involve a bloody horse head.

William Saylor's avatar

This is some of the more nonsensical Russian propaganda that, like organic material in a sewage system, flows through Orban's pipes. This has been rather naked aggression by the Russians since before 2014 and the Hungarians, perhaps for historical reasons and dreams of a long-collapsed empire of their own, are still cowed by the Russians. Perhaps this is just the Hungarian view of a survival strategy. I think "playing not to lose" rather than "playing to win (civilization)" is the correct sports analogy.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

That's a real howler, fella.

barnabus's avatar

Why not meet in Vladivostok after meeting in Alaska?

The Causal Observer's avatar

The reason it is difficult to make a guess about the outcome of talks is that people project their own prejudices on such meetings.

If we just listen to what is said by the relevant leaders, then it becomes clear that the fighting will continue as ever despite "very productive" talks. It will continue until the Ukraine and the west give in to Russia's demand for a guaranteed existence.

Martin's avatar

Grok:

"The pattern of implausible promises and convenient delays—whether over peace plans, arms limits, or summits—functions to keep multiple audiences hopeful while no binding commitments are made. For Putin, this ambiguity is advantageous: it reinforces the perception of division and hesitation within the Western bloc, suggesting that his adversaries cannot coordinate even symbolically. For Trump, it sustains the self-image of a unique negotiator capable of taming chaos, without risking a visible capitulation or confrontation.

"In that sense, both the “Tomahawk to Ukraine” and “Budapest summit” episodes belong to the same dramaturgy of plausible impracticality: gestures that cannot materialize, yet whose discussion serves each actor’s narrative purpose.

"The deeper question, then, is not whether such meetings or transfers will occur, but what audience they are designed to manipulate—and how effectively that manipulation still works in a world where the pattern has become transparent."

Martin's avatar

Western politicians, media and other commentators may be taken in by the charade, but surely Western 'Intelligence' isn't?

If some is, they should use Artificial Intelligence more :-)

Martin's avatar

Hey Péter - didn't anyone tell you that Stephen's jumped ship?

Brenton's avatar

Not even considering how Putin will safely get to Budapest when overflying NATO territory with an ICC arrect warrant over his head, the issue is does he trust Trump?

Trump's natural instinct is 'to get the hell out of Dodge.' Ukraine is a losing proposition and he does not want to be saddled with it when he feels in his waters that he should be concentrating on China. In this Ukraine is both a distraction and a waste of vauluable and even more scarce US/NATO resources which the Russians are attriting to the benefit of the Chinese (not saying the Chinese and Russians are in cahoots, but given the very limited US and NATO production capabilities, and the severe drawing down of vital classes of US/NATO war stocks to support Ukraine, and to Israel as well, this weakens the US ability to have a credible conventional military option against China).

On the other hand, given Trump's ego, he does not want to be accused of 'losing Ukraine' which the Europeans and the Washington Liberal elites will certainly point to. Thus he has made the Biden Ukraine War his own war by continuing to support it. Given that this President does not read, does not attend briefings, does not speak to subject experts and is often convinced by the last person to speak to him he is easily influenced and does not have the courage of his own convictions. Thus he has waxed and waned in his statements, actions and intentions over Ukraine. Diplomacy demands certainty, while War thrives on uncertainty.

Trump obviously did not listen to Putin in Anchorage, and insisted after the meeting on a no conditions ceasefire - which the Russians rejected had consistently rejected ever since the subject was broached. I would posit that if the Budapest Summit does go ahead this will be the last chance, and should Trump still insist on a ceasefire Russia will say 'Screw it' and press on to destroy Ukraine as a state on the battlefield eventually leading to Russia abutting up against NATO on the Romanian border (Odessa being a Russian Speaker Oblast).

Martin's avatar

Judge Trump by his actions, not his words.

His actions suggest to around 75% of intelligence experts that Putin is exercising some form of covert leverage, and that a lot of Trump's words are just prevaricating window-dressing.

Brenton's avatar

I am judging his actions. He blows hot and cold depending. If Putin had kompromat on him then he would come down firmly on getting out of the proxy war in Ukraine. There is no evidence to this as proved by Trump'd provarification between commitment to Ukraine and getting out. The main reason is that reality meets what Trump thinks should happen.

Martin's avatar

He sometimes makes Putineque tongue-in-cheek comments, for example (23 Sep) about Ukraine taking back all territory once he's pulled out (except for selling arms to bankrupt Europe, itself in political and economic disarray) or maybe sending Tomahawks with no way for Ukraine to actually launch them...

But these are precisely sops to *say* he's not letting Putin string him along, while *actually* allowing Putin to do just that.

The sudden announcement of an imminent meeting with Putin in Budapest, just as Zelensky arrives in Washington - greeted by *no* American official! - seems quite possibly just another sop to critics, another false hope given to Ukraine's supporters in Congress and abroad.

From meeting 'next week' it's now become 'very soon', 'in a few weeks' - and how Putin actually gets across NATO land to Hungary, like how Ukraine launches Tomahawks (which they aren't getting after all the tease) is quite a mystery.

Words are actions too, but the point of these apparently 'helpful' words is precisely the action of trying to camouflage for naive spectators what he's actually done, is doing, and will do.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

These so-called experts are confused &/or deceitful.

Jeroen's avatar

They meet, US demand cease fire, Russia refuses, Trump delivers Tomahawks.

The west is non-agreeable. The US wants to dominate, Trump can only win when others lose, so the root causes of the war can never be solved.

The EU on the other hand is one of morality. When you approach the EU with it self claimed "liberal democracy" from a religious standpoint it all makes sense. What does religion? It claims to be the only God, it's good versus evil, the urge to convert others. Liberal democracy is the only true God (that's why they hate Russia and China), everyone not like the EU is evil while we are good (just ignore all war and atrocities, in name of good this becomes virtue. Expanding the EU is in fact converting other countries through NGP's, color revolutions. The EU sees Ukraine as one of us, part of the religion, that's why they are so fanatic about this war. Religion often ands is fatalism, so because we are good and righteous even nuclear war is acceptable, evil can not win. As you might experienced, talking to religious people is difficult as they will not even accept reality if it goes against their believes.

I believe you can make an agreement with the US if you give Trump a win, most likely economical benefits. The hardest part will be neutrality and demilitarizing. This would mean a loss for NATO and Trump.

The real problem is the EU for all the above reasons. As they are also narcists, they take an attack on liberal democracy personally. Hence their irrational behavior, totalitarian attack on the truth, social media,... That's why on day 3 I gave a nuclear war 70% chance, narcists can't accept defeat, they will drag everyone down with them. Because currently their whole world is falling apart, utter failure: economy, green deal, migration, war in Ukraine,... Everything they believed in, or their religion turns out to be wrong, failure, their world is collapsing, liberal democracy failed. s career politicians that's all they have, that's their identity.

I'm just trying to find answers on why EU politicians act like they do. We see in Romania, Georgia, Moldova, Syria, Gaza,... how they talk about Russian interference while they spend billions on rigging elections and lecturing the world on democracy while cancelling others or ban someone through lawfare. I would accept it if they lied, but I think they truly believe themselves. Because it's good versus evil. If you are not with the EU you are against the EU (or pro Russia). Or am I the only one questioning the mental health of the EU? Tell me how you can make peace with such people.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Tell me how you can make sense of William Saylor, here in the comments section.

Martin's avatar

Vlod: But my dear friend and honored patron Donald, the ISW says we're winning, and only need a bit of help with one last push to completely defeat your evil monster other friend Putin, who nobody should think of talking to."

Donald: "Screw those Kagans, Bob, Vicky, Fred and bloody Kimberly got us into this and all their other wars in order to funnel more government money to their sponsors in Big Defense - I mean Big War - and they can go to hell with all their damn lies."

Alan's avatar

With the recent pass approach of the POTUS as well as the meeting with Putin in Alaska. I am sure the world is very confident to see no success in the coming peace talks in Hungry. POTUS seems to only have backbone when it comes to weaker nations that are not strong militarily. But with Russia who portrays to be powerful due to their nuclear capability weary the POTUS.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

"..the U.S. president is more of a businessman than a career politician; he never acts without a concrete plan." I remain unconvinced.

Putin's Pussy's avatar

Orbanian trump-licking

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Orban baaad - ALL must fellate the WEF !

Putin's Pussy's avatar

Orbán is great if you're connected, now that Hungary is a state-run patronage network. Political loyalty dictates wealth and power. Blurred lines between public service and personal enrichment, funneling funds and resources to family and allies. Silencing dissent through control of EU funds, courts and media. Democracy replaced by cronyism and "national sovereignty" for plunder by elites. Enjoy.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Replace "Orban" and "Hungary" with any nation and its ringleader that you're a fanboy of and your comment becomes accurate.

Putin's Pussy's avatar

Hardly. Orangeman sure is trying, though. Like his idol, Pootie Poot. You're pushing classic authoritarian kleptocratic bullshit. "They're all the same."

No, they are not.

Enjoy your cock-goulash.

Bendt Obermann's avatar

Keep dreaming of partying with the little green Z-man (like he won't be "offed") and his Euro Union keeners in 1 of his most corruption-gotten hideaways!

Bill Beeby's avatar

Very telling that there will be no Starmer , Macron or Merz at the meeting , they must be very put out by being left out .