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Will there be a Christmas Surprise in Russia and in the Ukraine War?
Could the Ukraine War Go Out of Control?
The US is getting ready to send the Patriot Air Defense system to Ukraine. And the US has also allegedly authorized Ukraine to conduct attacks on Russian territory. What can we learn from these developments? How will Russia react? Could there be a Christmas surprise from Moscow?
Patriot Air Defense System
The Patriot Air Defense system includes a number of different versions and variations, so it is not certain which type will be sent to Ukraine. The latest version, PAC 3 is mainly optimized against ballistic missiles. The earlier model, PAC-2 is more effective against enemy aircraft. But the distinctions are not clear cut --a lot depends on the radars, the command center and the interceptor missiles themselves.
Patriot's performance against ballistic missiles has been mixed. From what can be observed from the use of the system recently in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it has been able to hit incoming Houthi-fired (but Iranian made) ballistic missiles, but only when the missiles were encountered very close to their target and at low altitude (2 to 3 thousand feet). In these intercepts the missile is damaged but not enough to fully explode it in mid-air.
In the past Patriot had an even worse record when operated by US personnel in Saudi Arabia and in Israel when fired against SCUD missiles.
Unfortunately the US has not concentrated on air defense systems and has not moved beyond the Patriot system, choosing instead to keep modifying what it had. This has led to considerable gaps in coverage not to mention logistics and support problems trying to keep up with an evolving system of many diverse parts.
When it comes to Ukraine, Patriot may be useful against Russian cruise missiles, but not too good against ballistic missiles. Because it functions effectively only close to the targets being protected, it will take quite a few Patriot batteries to really help defend Ukraine from Russian attacks. Furthermore, it is impossible that the Patriots sent to Ukraine could be operated by Ukrainians, at least in the short term. That means it is likely US troops (maybe not in uniform) will have to go to Kiev.
The US is already starting to send US soldier specialists to Ukraine, a worrisome development as it implies active engagement of US forces on Ukrainian territory. Now more will be sent.
What we are seeing, therefore, is the steady arrival of "advisors" just as President Kennedy started to send advisors to Vietnam. Russia will see this as a provocation and may expand the war as a result. It seems Washington is willing to take chances that are hardly justified.
Targeting Russia
The Ukrainians have been given a pass by the Biden administration to target Russia. This has different elements. One is the use of drones targeting Russian airfields, ammunition dumps, command centers and fuel depots inside Russian territory.
Another is the use of saboteurs blowing up shopping malls and power stations in Russia.
Connected with the attack on Russian airfields has been a Ukrainian drone strike that damaged two Tu-95 strategic bombers.
Russia uses the Tu-95 in the same way the United States uses the B-52. Both are seriously old aircraft, but they can carry a large load of conventional and nuclear weapons, including stand off weapons. When Ukraine hits these platforms on Russian territory, there is no certain way to know if the aircraft are loaded with bombs or what type of bombs. In practical terms this means that the risk is very high that a nuclear weapon could be damaged or even explode.
The US decision is reckless and has even alarmed the head of NATO, NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg. Stoltenberg, a consummate NATO hawk concerning Ukraine, sounded a warning on December 9th that the Ukraine conflict could spillover into a war between Russia and NATO. “If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” Stoltenberg told Norwegian broadcaster NRK. While Stoltenberg did not mention the US support for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, Stoltenberg was clearly sending a message to Washington, but to no effect.
Who is Winning?
All the news says that Ukraine is winning against Russia. But the news also says that the US is stepping up the delivery of weapons and telling Ukraine to attack Russian territory. Meanwhile the Russians say that they are slogging it out and making slow but steady progress. There is no sign yet of a fracture either on the side of Russia or Ukraine. Washington is promoting the conflict unhesitatingly.
Putin Cancels a Major Press Conference
Each year Russian President Putin holds an end of the year press conference that is billed as a press conference with the Russian people. He answers live questions from around the country. This affair can extend for many hours, and Putin will hear and respond to criticism. This year, for the first time, the press conference has been cancelled. Is Putin worried about what he will hear? We don't know, but it may be that complaints about the Ukraine war are stressing the Kremlin and dividing the leadership. It is interesting and intriguing that a number of senior officials in Russia's foreign ministry have been dismissed. Is Russia facing major political change? Or are we in for a Christmas surprise?
Putin should probably be most afraid of the people who are protecting him.
Yes, I'm sure Putin has tons of security. And his security people have to have guns. And when Putin makes a public appearance, those with guns have to be nearby Putin to deter any attackers.
One brave soul with a gun who is willing to die for his country can end this war.