On July 25, 1990 the US Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, met with Saddam Hussein. The meeting concerned the massing of Iraqi troops threatening Kuwait, an important US ally in the Persian Gulf. At the meeting Glaspie said to Saddam, "But we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait. I was in the American Embassy in Kuwait during the late 1960s. The instruction we had during this period was that we should express no opinion on this issue and that the issue is not associated with America. James Baker has directed our official spokesmen to emphasize this instruction. We hope you can solve this problem using any suitable methods … All that we hope is that these issues are solved quickly."
In simple terms, Glaspie told Saddam that if he invaded Kuwait the US would not interfere. Thus on August 2, 1990, a little more than a week later, Saddam invaded Kuwait and his troops threatened Saudi Arabia. The US would soon organize a 35 nation consortium and move to fight Hussein.
Now we have the Biden-Xi meeting. Biden reversed himself on Taiwan (to the delight of Xi) which Xi read as a green light to continue aggressive operations against Taiwan. Biden said that his meeting with Xi meant that any invasion of Taiwan "was not imminent."
Really?
China Keeps Up Hostile Activity Against Taiwan and Japan
Early on Wednesday morning of November 16th "16 PLA aircraft and 3 PLAN vessels were detected by 6 a.m." Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported. The aircraft and ships crossed Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), something they have been doing as they stepped up the threat to the island.
Two days earlier, the same day Biden and Xi met at the G-20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, Chinese military aircraft flew near Okinawa where the US has important Air Force and Marine bases.
The Japan Air Self-Defense Force intercepted a BZK-005 high-altitude reconnaissance drone, a Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft and a Y-9 patrol aircraft that flew between Okinawa and Miyako Island, 175 miles to the southwest.
Okinawa is strategically located. Recently, the Biden administration removed two F-15 squadrons from Okinawa that had been permanently based on Okinawa at Kadena Air Base. These were the closest US fighter squadrons that could protect Taiwan in any emergency.
The F-15 is a fighter bomber far superior in striking power to the stealthy F-35 or to any of China's aircraft. Replacing the F-15s at Kadena, but only on a temporary rotational basis, are potent F-22s, although how many and for how long isn't public information. Clearly the Chinese would want to know more and their surveillance flight no doubt had, as part of its mission, been tasked to find out.
US Did Not Challenge Chinese Jets
One would have thought the US would have challenged the Chinese aircraft spying on them. But nothing happened. US fighters stayed plunked on the ground. The Biden administration was preparing to be nice to China, to improve China-US trade, to allegedly end China's supposed isolation, so there was no response. Japan, which has been scrambling jets to confront China's aggressive behavior around its territories including Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands, did challenge the Chinese. Whether they succeeded in chasing them away is, however, dubious.
Weapons for Taiwan Won’t Arrive Soon
Meanwhile the US Congress is moving to fast track weapons to Taiwan with many on the Hill seeing the danger of war rising. Here is a partial list of the items known to be part of the Congressional initiative: Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger MANPADS anti-air missiles, air defense systems (unspecified), suicide drones, naval mines, command and control systems and secure radios.
One presumes that much of what Congress has in mind is derived from the Ukraine-war experience. But there are numerous problems. Perhaps the biggest is that the US is out of Stingers and Javelins and does not have air defense systems that can be delivered to Taiwan. It will take a few years to build replacements for what has been sent to Ukraine (and Ukraine will surely have to be resupplied).
It is even worse when it comes to HIMARS, the highly accurate artillery rocket system now being used in Ukraine. The US is out of HIMARS too. Moreover, in a recent Marine exercise with their Japanese counterparts, the Japanese fired their rockets but the US did not fire HIMARS, which it deployed for the exercise, because the Marines did not have any rockets to spare.
More than Weapons Needed to Defend Taiwan
The second problem is that more than weapons are needed. The US needs to coordinate defense with Taiwan, provide all the training required, and set up a joint command and control system in case of conflict. What is Biden waiting for? For sure, the Biden and DOD talk big but do little or nothing. Of course they don't want to disturb China.
Xi scored a big victory over Biden and the United States. Sending Kamala Harris to visit Palawan, a South Sea island is hardly an offset to what Biden seems to have given away to Xi. Meanwhile, the danger of conflict continues to grow.
Xi Whiz! Biden blew it.
Okinawa is strategically located. Recently, the Biden administration removed two F-15 squadrons from Taiwan that had been permanently based on Okinawa at Kadena Air Base.
Should be not Taiwan, but Okinawa.