Isn't it amazing how often the Ukrainian army has been pushed into a cauldron? It's almost like they can't live without being trapped in a pocket. Clearly Zelebsky doesn't care either, if it happens. He fights for show while the Russians fight a real war.
AFU is being pretty well cooked on all active fronts.
Vuhledar, of course, but also in Kursk where Sudzha may soon be cut off from the border, and south of Kupiansk, where the Russians are about to reach the Oskil river at Kruhlyakivka, and the the only bridge to the right bank between Kupiansk and Horokhovatka. They have already cut off the first bridge North of Kupiansk at Dvorichna.
Clearly, the Oskil will be the eventual line of control in the Northeast, and the Dnieper in the SouthWest.
As I see it, the only real question is what happens to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk South of the Oskil.
I imagine smarter people at Pentagon and State see this too.
But Zelensky and his Uncle Joe have to keep sacrificing his country and population to an ever more delusional fantasy of 'victory', as he, Yermak and Budanov (forget pawn Syrsky) await their own personal cauldron in Kiev.
The US does not want to keep the war running until the election. The US wants to keep the war out of the headlines ahead of the election.
I note that many are assuming the US has accepted defeat and will manage the politics of this defeat after Trump is gone. I think this is entirely backwards. The US will not ever under any circumstances accept a defeat in Europe.
The most likely outcome is that the US escalates both with China and Russia and Iran after Trump is gone. Trump is the final, last, never-happening-again threat to the regime consensus with regard to War and Peace. When he's gone, the messianic weirdos are fully in charge and the US will try and run the table.
The US absolutely is in a position to escalate. Putin's threats are not perceived as credible. The US perceives itself as able to continue slicing the salami.
Escalate how with what? Bring back the draft to send minorities over to Ukraine to fight? With a military leadership trained to believe the U.S. is evil from the outset? With equipment purchased with funds that were supposed to go to the green revolution?
The typical bag of tricks: terrorism, sabotage, assassinations, as well as simple military strikes in/on Russia.
We should all take the time to listen to what the Regime is discussing internally. Much of this seeps out in Op-Eds, in videos of conferences, in think-tank white papers, etc. We can not solely rely on dissident media. The consensus within the Regime in no way is trending toward defeatism. It is trending toward escalation, to recalibration, and a hardening of a No Putin Anymore goal.
Bureaucracies are inherently dangerous organizations in that they dissipate responsibility for mistakes, which directly rewards and encourages escalatory behavior. The bureaucracy (aka the Blob) is currently in charge as Biden has dementia, and if Harris (who might as well have dementia) wins, the bureaucracy will not be controlled, nor will it calm itself. The defeat of Trump will be taken as evidence that the bureaucracy is without internal threats, which will further radicalize it.
By the way, the Inflation Reduction Act, which was really just the "green new deal" rebranded, was the DNC using public funds to support loyalist organizations and individuals. They did this will hundreds of billions of dollars. There was and will be no push back. They did it and it is done. They will do it again. Do not take this as evidence that the state is not able to escalate.
Sadly, you are right. The Neo-cons still dream of splitting up Russia into numerous little and controllable countries. Lucky for us none of them have any original thoughts. They still see Russia as a gas station.
Putin will be in charge as long as he wants to be in charge. People remember we did all we could to bankrupt the country in the 1990's when the USSR fell. It was Putin (who again thanks to our idiots in charge who never saw beyond the KGB label) with degrees in Economics not just law that turned the country around.
They also don't realize Russia is using the same MIC system we taught them in WW2 while we consolidated putting profits over production.
Trump is a different candidate this time. He has included Tulsi, etc., now and she'll have a major FP role. This New Trump is vastly more dangerous to the Regime.
We've heard that one before. Trump is what he is, the good parts and the not so good.
I recall, for instance, that Trump invited Gabbard to Trump Tower shortly after he was elected. That went nowhere, as Trump's newfound neocon friends quickly got his ear.
Anyway, the point is moot, because, barring something unforeseen, Harris will win.
That's strange. When he was in office they said he was erratic, wouldn't listen to his advisors and generally dangerous because of his stubborn unpredictability. However, while he was in office there were no new wars of consequence, North Korea dialed itself back and peace accords were developing the Middle East. And....wait for it....existing wars were slowly being wound down with an end in sight. Not to mention ISIS being reduced from a burgeoning nation state violently shaking up world affairs to a ragtag group going around shooting up local wedding parties. All that stands in stark contrast to the previous and subsequent administrations.
Trump did escalate existing conflicts and the only reason there were no new wars was because of the extreme forbearance shown by Syria, Russia and Iran.
I have the impression that Poroshenko and Zelensky are agents of the Kremlin. No one else, not even the United States, has done so much to end the existence of the former Ukraine and return it to Russia.
Is it possible to consider the possibility of a civil war in Ukraine? The closer the end of Zelensky's regime is, the more Ukrainians will be stratified into "hawks" and "pigeons", it will not end peacefully.(Yandex Translator)
Можно только гадать, начнется ли гражданская война, но я лично сомневаюсь. Скорее всего, это будет военный переворот, но это положит конец иностранной помощи.
Probably, before the inauguration of the next US president, a coup can be "safely" not expected, and after that a coup...it loses its "hidden" meaning: Who wants to take on unpaid responsibility? Moreover, Russia has made it clear that there will be no negotiations with Ukraine , due to the loss of the status of a sovereign power and lack of trust . That is, it absolutely does not matter who is in power: Zelensky or Zaluzhny or "Nichiporuk". The basic meaning of the existence of this state is shifting from top to bottom , towards the people .Humiliated, tired, outraged, angry, having claims against Putin, Zelensky, NATO, Biden . And, in the end, the soldiers, with their vision, will return home...
I completely agree with you - fortune - telling , at such a rate of change in the situation , is a useless thing . It remains to contemplate ...
Stephen, you didn't mention the Kinzhal strike on the remaining Dutch F16s, after Ukraine itself shot down the first.
I've still to see an objective report, but as one online commenter noted, Russia seems to have solved the problem of training more Ukrainian F16 pilots, if there are no planes left to fly?
Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine is not even s city; it's surface is 0.56 sq mi and it had in 2023 14,400 inhabitants. There is not even a railway station and one supermarket. What's all the logistics about?
Before it was cut off from East and West it has some strategic significance, as a major road intersection with high buildings on high ground.
But my impression is that recently it became a largely symbolic asset, after Ukraine managed to retain it (when it WAS strategically significant) in the largest tank battle of the war so far, in Winter 2022-3:
One thing is for sure. It definitely interfered with Russian logistics. Now it doesn't and allows the Russians to return the favor by jamming up Ukrainian held highways and rail lines that pass close by.
There is a single rail line which finishes at a nearby coal mine (1,2 mn ton /year) and is connected with a line to Donetsk. The high way is a local small one.
But as you point out, that small town rail line connects to *Russian* held Donetsk. One more supply line for the Russians, one less for the Ukrainians. Repeat that every few days and pretty soon you have another overwhelming advantage beyond the current superiority in manpower, artillery, drones, missiles and air power complete with anti-air.
Presented for comment and not necessarily for truth:
#Инсайд Our source in the Ukrainian delegation said that Biden promised Zelensky to allow strikes deep into Russian territory after the US presidential elections. At this stage, the Biden Administration will support Ukraine's initiatives and supply available weapons so that the Russian army cannot seize Donbas. https://t.me/rezident_ua/24454
1. Russia has a bad habit of allowing Ukrainian forces to withdraw from fire pockets, rather than closing them off and forcing them to surrender or die.
Let us hope that Russia has learned something.
2,. "Zelensky's trip to the US did not result in any pledge of long range weapons to strike Russia, nor did it result in any pledge of air or ground support for Ukrainian troops."
Further escalation is unpopular, so all Zelenskii has to do is to hold out until after the US elections in November, when NATO will directly and openly intervene.
Maybe it has to do with the fact that closing a cauldron exposes the troops doing so and thus incurs higher casualties. Given Russia's demographic imbalance vis a vis NATO, preserving the lives of Russian solders must be paramount.
Forcing one's enemies to surrender (or just leaving them in the cauldron until they do so) reduces friendly casualties, vis-a-vis letting enemy troops live to fight another day and fight under more favorable circumstances.
Forcing Ukrainian troops to run a prepared artillery gauntlet is not simply letting troops go to fight another day under better circumstances. Those that do survive and fight again will be in much more disadvantageous position vis a vis tactical and strategic position. All done with little friendly troop loss. Just so you know, the towns and villages that Ukraine is losing are the best circumstances they will ever have in Eastern Ukraine.
Aggressive attrition is all about simply wearing down your enemy while minimizing your own losses. Destroying their exposed equipment and troops while they are on the run, using overwhelming artillery and air assets is better for preserving friendly manpower than fighting and winning in close quarters combat in urban settings.
Those Ukrainian troops would have killed thousands of Russian troops in urban fighting. Instead Russian artillery picked off the Ukrainian equipment and troops while they were on the run. Smart move if you are confident you are going to win and one of your goals is to totally wear down your opponent not just get a stunning victory to force a grudging surrender.
Russia doesn't want just a surrender and negotiations. They want Ukraine eliminated as a possible military threat for the next couple of decades. That means slowly, steadily chewing them up until there is nothing left. But doing so without losing your own army and wrecking your own economy.
Probably because the geogrphy of Mariupol doesn't really allow for a withdrawal, although apparently the Ukrainians did fly in multiple helicopters by night to ferry out high value (aka "NATO") personnel. Why Russia didn't expect this and shoot more helicopters down is left as an exercise for the reader.
And what happened with the surrendered afterwards, do tell? Oh yes, Russia released them to Turkey, which promply allowed them to return to Ukraine, to the surprise of precisely nobody.
Isn't it amazing how often the Ukrainian army has been pushed into a cauldron? It's almost like they can't live without being trapped in a pocket. Clearly Zelebsky doesn't care either, if it happens. He fights for show while the Russians fight a real war.
AFU is being pretty well cooked on all active fronts.
Vuhledar, of course, but also in Kursk where Sudzha may soon be cut off from the border, and south of Kupiansk, where the Russians are about to reach the Oskil river at Kruhlyakivka, and the the only bridge to the right bank between Kupiansk and Horokhovatka. They have already cut off the first bridge North of Kupiansk at Dvorichna.
Clearly, the Oskil will be the eventual line of control in the Northeast, and the Dnieper in the SouthWest.
As I see it, the only real question is what happens to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk South of the Oskil.
I imagine smarter people at Pentagon and State see this too.
But Zelensky and his Uncle Joe have to keep sacrificing his country and population to an ever more delusional fantasy of 'victory', as he, Yermak and Budanov (forget pawn Syrsky) await their own personal cauldron in Kiev.
The US does not want to keep the war running until the election. The US wants to keep the war out of the headlines ahead of the election.
I note that many are assuming the US has accepted defeat and will manage the politics of this defeat after Trump is gone. I think this is entirely backwards. The US will not ever under any circumstances accept a defeat in Europe.
The most likely outcome is that the US escalates both with China and Russia and Iran after Trump is gone. Trump is the final, last, never-happening-again threat to the regime consensus with regard to War and Peace. When he's gone, the messianic weirdos are fully in charge and the US will try and run the table.
I seriously doubt that the US intends to escalate after the election. Not in a position to do so without a wider war Europe won't accept.
The US absolutely is in a position to escalate. Putin's threats are not perceived as credible. The US perceives itself as able to continue slicing the salami.
Escalate how with what? Bring back the draft to send minorities over to Ukraine to fight? With a military leadership trained to believe the U.S. is evil from the outset? With equipment purchased with funds that were supposed to go to the green revolution?
The typical bag of tricks: terrorism, sabotage, assassinations, as well as simple military strikes in/on Russia.
We should all take the time to listen to what the Regime is discussing internally. Much of this seeps out in Op-Eds, in videos of conferences, in think-tank white papers, etc. We can not solely rely on dissident media. The consensus within the Regime in no way is trending toward defeatism. It is trending toward escalation, to recalibration, and a hardening of a No Putin Anymore goal.
Bureaucracies are inherently dangerous organizations in that they dissipate responsibility for mistakes, which directly rewards and encourages escalatory behavior. The bureaucracy (aka the Blob) is currently in charge as Biden has dementia, and if Harris (who might as well have dementia) wins, the bureaucracy will not be controlled, nor will it calm itself. The defeat of Trump will be taken as evidence that the bureaucracy is without internal threats, which will further radicalize it.
By the way, the Inflation Reduction Act, which was really just the "green new deal" rebranded, was the DNC using public funds to support loyalist organizations and individuals. They did this will hundreds of billions of dollars. There was and will be no push back. They did it and it is done. They will do it again. Do not take this as evidence that the state is not able to escalate.
Sadly, you are right. The Neo-cons still dream of splitting up Russia into numerous little and controllable countries. Lucky for us none of them have any original thoughts. They still see Russia as a gas station.
Putin will be in charge as long as he wants to be in charge. People remember we did all we could to bankrupt the country in the 1990's when the USSR fell. It was Putin (who again thanks to our idiots in charge who never saw beyond the KGB label) with degrees in Economics not just law that turned the country around.
They also don't realize Russia is using the same MIC system we taught them in WW2 while we consolidated putting profits over production.
Goering had some choice words on the subject, and he was in a position to know.
Nobody will ask europeans what they want. You think a farmer asks veal calves what abbatoir they prefer?
Didn't you hear that Sirkeir is setting out to rebuild the British Empire, starting in Ukraine?
No, AFAICT, he seeks to be America's Favoritest Little Bitch.
I don't think it will matter whether or not Trump is elected. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
They'll get him to the same spot, it just might take a little longer.
Trump is a different candidate this time. He has included Tulsi, etc., now and she'll have a major FP role. This New Trump is vastly more dangerous to the Regime.
@Davis and that's the reason the deep state will get rid of him, just like they did with JFK.
We've heard that one before. Trump is what he is, the good parts and the not so good.
I recall, for instance, that Trump invited Gabbard to Trump Tower shortly after he was elected. That went nowhere, as Trump's newfound neocon friends quickly got his ear.
Anyway, the point is moot, because, barring something unforeseen, Harris will win.
That's strange. When he was in office they said he was erratic, wouldn't listen to his advisors and generally dangerous because of his stubborn unpredictability. However, while he was in office there were no new wars of consequence, North Korea dialed itself back and peace accords were developing the Middle East. And....wait for it....existing wars were slowly being wound down with an end in sight. Not to mention ISIS being reduced from a burgeoning nation state violently shaking up world affairs to a ragtag group going around shooting up local wedding parties. All that stands in stark contrast to the previous and subsequent administrations.
Trump did escalate existing conflicts and the only reason there were no new wars was because of the extreme forbearance shown by Syria, Russia and Iran.
Zelensky's presidential term ended in May.
I have the impression that Poroshenko and Zelensky are agents of the Kremlin. No one else, not even the United States, has done so much to end the existence of the former Ukraine and return it to Russia.
Is it possible to consider the possibility of a civil war in Ukraine? The closer the end of Zelensky's regime is, the more Ukrainians will be stratified into "hawks" and "pigeons", it will not end peacefully.(Yandex Translator)
Можно только гадать, начнется ли гражданская война, но я лично сомневаюсь. Скорее всего, это будет военный переворот, но это положит конец иностранной помощи.
Probably, before the inauguration of the next US president, a coup can be "safely" not expected, and after that a coup...it loses its "hidden" meaning: Who wants to take on unpaid responsibility? Moreover, Russia has made it clear that there will be no negotiations with Ukraine , due to the loss of the status of a sovereign power and lack of trust . That is, it absolutely does not matter who is in power: Zelensky or Zaluzhny or "Nichiporuk". The basic meaning of the existence of this state is shifting from top to bottom , towards the people .Humiliated, tired, outraged, angry, having claims against Putin, Zelensky, NATO, Biden . And, in the end, the soldiers, with their vision, will return home...
I completely agree with you - fortune - telling , at such a rate of change in the situation , is a useless thing . It remains to contemplate ...
Kyiv in 3 days. Russian troll.
Stephen, you didn't mention the Kinzhal strike on the remaining Dutch F16s, after Ukraine itself shot down the first.
I've still to see an objective report, but as one online commenter noted, Russia seems to have solved the problem of training more Ukrainian F16 pilots, if there are no planes left to fly?
I have not seen confirmation that other F-16s were destroyed.
Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine is not even s city; it's surface is 0.56 sq mi and it had in 2023 14,400 inhabitants. There is not even a railway station and one supermarket. What's all the logistics about?
Good question.
Before it was cut off from East and West it has some strategic significance, as a major road intersection with high buildings on high ground.
But my impression is that recently it became a largely symbolic asset, after Ukraine managed to retain it (when it WAS strategically significant) in the largest tank battle of the war so far, in Winter 2022-3:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vuhledar
Gettysburg was also a small town.
One thing is for sure. It definitely interfered with Russian logistics. Now it doesn't and allows the Russians to return the favor by jamming up Ukrainian held highways and rail lines that pass close by.
There is a single rail line which finishes at a nearby coal mine (1,2 mn ton /year) and is connected with a line to Donetsk. The high way is a local small one.
you don't need a supermarket to bring in arms and soldiers and dispatch from there to battle fronts. Your point makes no sense to me.
I know, I just wrote that to indicate that Vuhledar is more a village than a town or city.
But as you point out, that small town rail line connects to *Russian* held Donetsk. One more supply line for the Russians, one less for the Ukrainians. Repeat that every few days and pretty soon you have another overwhelming advantage beyond the current superiority in manpower, artillery, drones, missiles and air power complete with anti-air.
You're right, and there is also the coal mine itself (not a small one) at just 1.8 mi distance.
Presented for comment and not necessarily for truth:
#Инсайд Our source in the Ukrainian delegation said that Biden promised Zelensky to allow strikes deep into Russian territory after the US presidential elections. At this stage, the Biden Administration will support Ukraine's initiatives and supply available weapons so that the Russian army cannot seize Donbas. https://t.me/rezident_ua/24454
I don't believe it.
1. Russia has a bad habit of allowing Ukrainian forces to withdraw from fire pockets, rather than closing them off and forcing them to surrender or die.
Let us hope that Russia has learned something.
2,. "Zelensky's trip to the US did not result in any pledge of long range weapons to strike Russia, nor did it result in any pledge of air or ground support for Ukrainian troops."
Further escalation is unpopular, so all Zelenskii has to do is to hold out until after the US elections in November, when NATO will directly and openly intervene.
Maybe it has to do with the fact that closing a cauldron exposes the troops doing so and thus incurs higher casualties. Given Russia's demographic imbalance vis a vis NATO, preserving the lives of Russian solders must be paramount.
Forcing one's enemies to surrender (or just leaving them in the cauldron until they do so) reduces friendly casualties, vis-a-vis letting enemy troops live to fight another day and fight under more favorable circumstances.
Forcing Ukrainian troops to run a prepared artillery gauntlet is not simply letting troops go to fight another day under better circumstances. Those that do survive and fight again will be in much more disadvantageous position vis a vis tactical and strategic position. All done with little friendly troop loss. Just so you know, the towns and villages that Ukraine is losing are the best circumstances they will ever have in Eastern Ukraine.
Aggressive attrition is all about simply wearing down your enemy while minimizing your own losses. Destroying their exposed equipment and troops while they are on the run, using overwhelming artillery and air assets is better for preserving friendly manpower than fighting and winning in close quarters combat in urban settings.
"Forcing Ukrainian troops to run a prepared artillery gauntlet is not simply letting troops go to fight another day under better circumstances."
If those Ukrainains get out, then yes, it is. Otherwise, they'd be POWs or dead.
Otherwise, it's just retconning Russian indecision. There is a reason Zhukov and the Stavka didn't let the Wehrmacht escape.
Those Ukrainian troops would have killed thousands of Russian troops in urban fighting. Instead Russian artillery picked off the Ukrainian equipment and troops while they were on the run. Smart move if you are confident you are going to win and one of your goals is to totally wear down your opponent not just get a stunning victory to force a grudging surrender.
Russia doesn't want just a surrender and negotiations. They want Ukraine eliminated as a possible military threat for the next couple of decades. That means slowly, steadily chewing them up until there is nothing left. But doing so without losing your own army and wrecking your own economy.
And Zhukov lost men by the millions.
Not if you surround those Ukrainian troops. Otherwise, if the Ukrainians were as effective as you claim, they wouldn't have needed to retreat.
Otherwise, Ukraine is not the military threat Russia needs to worry about.
I guess you missed or forgotten about the capture of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works.
Probably because the geogrphy of Mariupol doesn't really allow for a withdrawal, although apparently the Ukrainians did fly in multiple helicopters by night to ferry out high value (aka "NATO") personnel. Why Russia didn't expect this and shoot more helicopters down is left as an exercise for the reader.
And what happened with the surrendered afterwards, do tell? Oh yes, Russia released them to Turkey, which promply allowed them to return to Ukraine, to the surprise of precisely nobody.
Is that the best example you have?
Being surrounded by the Russian army allows for a withdrawal with the right geography?
Yeah, if you aren't surrounded with your back to the sea.
I note that you do not appear to dispute any of my other points.
I have far better things to do with my time than sort your garbage.