Thank you for another well researched article. We all know Zelensky can't win this war and is becoming a rouge actor.
One only wonders what he is still fighting for and how many people he is willing to sacrifice. Even if he wins, he probably sacrificed a entire generation of men... for what?
Tragic also how the Kursk "Safari" was celebrated by Western media. Ukraine gained 600km² of territory, wow! That is an area 25km by 25km which is about 15 miles x 15 miles. Do people know how big Russia is?
The Russians know one thing, it's easy to invade Mother Russia. But it's not that easy to get out alive.
Steven could we get an analysis on Pokrovsk, it's stratetig importance and what a collapse would mean for the Ukrainian army? Thank you.
Some of the most effective remaining Ukrainian units have been redeployed from places like Pokrovsk to the strange Kursk sideshow in sparsely populated wooded farmland, which as Stephen says, has very little strategic logic - which largely explains why Russia was 'surprised'.
As a result, Russian momentum at various points on the key (Ukrainian) homeland front has notably accelerated.
I wondered yesterday if the Kiev Troika was trying to pre-emptively distract attention from imminent strategic losses at home by launching a distraction over the Northern border intended mainly for NATO media?
No need to wonder, they will sacrifice all who are fit enough to dig a trench. Really. The burn rate is 50-60k human beings per month. Given the already depleted state of the population, they can do this for maybe 2 more years. Though they are clearly trying to provoke Russia into ending Ukraine's electricity, and the way things are going they'll succeed by the end of this year I think.
1. Of course NATO planned the Kursk incursion. Ukraine does nothing without NATO supervision. What does Russia propose to do about it?
2. Of course this is intended as a pretext for NATO to intervene. What does Russia propose to do about it?
Screaming "no fair" is not going to make them stop. A lead pipe to the face, over and over again, is the language that the sociopaths ruling the West understand.
It makes one wonder how much influence or control the U.S. President has regarding NATO and Ukrainian decisions and actions. Who is the "Alpha Male" calling the shots? It seems like Zelensky's leadership and power are waning. NATO's leaders are more concerned about not having a dog in the fight than serving the purpose for which NATO was established to do. I do believe than Biden has pretty much "checked out" and his underlings are fighting amongst themselves for the acquisition of influence and creditability in a future administration. In the meantime, the Russian assault continues and the Ukrainian people continue to lose the strength and backbone of their society, their young men. I believe that President Trump will be able to end this madness. Not all parties will be happy or satisfied that the results are fair, but, as we all know, life's not fair and was never meant to be.
This might be one of the most reckless things the Ukrainians have yet done. Amazing that NATO is not doing more to rein in Zelenskiy, who seems determined to start WW3
They did worse to the ZNPP plant in Energodar. Kiev regime are nutter terrorists. Asking why US/NATO doesn't rein them in misses the long standing pattern of seeking out exactly this personality type in proxies.
The remnants of reactor 4 at Chernobyl is now contained within the New Safe Confinement, a massive structure built using western money. It was quite an engineering feat.
I wouldn't worry too much. The nuclear part of a NPP is designed to withstand an airplane crash. Of course you can damage and destroy the non nuclear part which my cause troubles for the nuclear reactors. But general NPP are build with the highest safety standards. It would take a lot more than one drone or missile to create a catastrophe. Ukraine can't do this by accident, and the west will have to respond if they deliberately keep attacking NPP.
Not sure you're correct with respect to the older Kursk reactors. The Chernobyl-style reactors do not have the steel and concrete containment structure protecting them that the more common PWRs have.
Given that Ukraine is Russia's next door neighbor, it shows shockingly little concern for which way the plume might go if there is a radioactive release.
The Kursk incursion highlights a couple of potentially interesting developments.
First, the Ukraine forces appear to have achieved 'drone superiority' in the area, with Russian drone forces having reduced effectiveness. Whether that reflects new technology (fiber optic guided drones for instance) or simply better tactics is unknown, but it is a substantial development.
Second, Ukraine is apparently using its links to the Russian rail network to bring in the needed supplies. This is of course entirely logical, the systems were built to common standards and rail is vastly more capable than the local road network. However, this success indicates that the reports of Russian strikes crippling the Ukraine electric network should be taken with some skepticism, as the Ukraine rail system is overwhelmingly electric. Having functioning rail supply up to and beyond the original border shows that repairs have alleviated the damage, at least in priority instances.
Finally, the ability of Ukraine to push forward an effective strike group even though their forces remain under pressure in the Donbas suggests that the reports of crippling manpower shortages may be purposely exaggerated, a classic deceptive move.
Delusional take. Ukraine is losing on all ends. They are trying to hold some rediculous area gains while Russia annihilates them from a distance. Again, Ukraine has no functioning air force and Russia has a fire power advantage on the ground of 10:1.
The element they concentrated for the Kursk operation seems to be "maneuver assets" and probably SF. Most of the fighting by far remains in the East, with no reduction of intensity there. So Ukraine clearly retains its ability for static defense. But if they burn up the portion of the reserves capable of counterattack at full-brigade-scale, they'll be vulnerable to resumption of RF resuming long narrow thrusts and thus flanking maneuvers of their own like in the opening phase. Especially in the winter when the NATO advantage in satellite recon is neutralized by foul weather.
The imminent drafting of 18-year old cohort is also a bad sign. There were around 100k males in the circa 2005 birth years last year, at least according to wikipedia. I think they'll be lucky if they can get 50k out of each of those birth years. That'd be burning thru a draftable birth year each month!
Thank you for another well researched article. We all know Zelensky can't win this war and is becoming a rouge actor.
One only wonders what he is still fighting for and how many people he is willing to sacrifice. Even if he wins, he probably sacrificed a entire generation of men... for what?
Tragic also how the Kursk "Safari" was celebrated by Western media. Ukraine gained 600km² of territory, wow! That is an area 25km by 25km which is about 15 miles x 15 miles. Do people know how big Russia is?
The Russians know one thing, it's easy to invade Mother Russia. But it's not that easy to get out alive.
Steven could we get an analysis on Pokrovsk, it's stratetig importance and what a collapse would mean for the Ukrainian army? Thank you.
I am planning an article on Pokrovsk.
Some of the most effective remaining Ukrainian units have been redeployed from places like Pokrovsk to the strange Kursk sideshow in sparsely populated wooded farmland, which as Stephen says, has very little strategic logic - which largely explains why Russia was 'surprised'.
As a result, Russian momentum at various points on the key (Ukrainian) homeland front has notably accelerated.
I wondered yesterday if the Kiev Troika was trying to pre-emptively distract attention from imminent strategic losses at home by launching a distraction over the Northern border intended mainly for NATO media?
I mean NATO and domestic media
No need to wonder, they will sacrifice all who are fit enough to dig a trench. Really. The burn rate is 50-60k human beings per month. Given the already depleted state of the population, they can do this for maybe 2 more years. Though they are clearly trying to provoke Russia into ending Ukraine's electricity, and the way things are going they'll succeed by the end of this year I think.
1. Of course NATO planned the Kursk incursion. Ukraine does nothing without NATO supervision. What does Russia propose to do about it?
2. Of course this is intended as a pretext for NATO to intervene. What does Russia propose to do about it?
Screaming "no fair" is not going to make them stop. A lead pipe to the face, over and over again, is the language that the sociopaths ruling the West understand.
It makes one wonder how much influence or control the U.S. President has regarding NATO and Ukrainian decisions and actions. Who is the "Alpha Male" calling the shots? It seems like Zelensky's leadership and power are waning. NATO's leaders are more concerned about not having a dog in the fight than serving the purpose for which NATO was established to do. I do believe than Biden has pretty much "checked out" and his underlings are fighting amongst themselves for the acquisition of influence and creditability in a future administration. In the meantime, the Russian assault continues and the Ukrainian people continue to lose the strength and backbone of their society, their young men. I believe that President Trump will be able to end this madness. Not all parties will be happy or satisfied that the results are fair, but, as we all know, life's not fair and was never meant to be.
This might be one of the most reckless things the Ukrainians have yet done. Amazing that NATO is not doing more to rein in Zelenskiy, who seems determined to start WW3
They did worse to the ZNPP plant in Energodar. Kiev regime are nutter terrorists. Asking why US/NATO doesn't rein them in misses the long standing pattern of seeking out exactly this personality type in proxies.
NATO strikes again! Thanks Joe. 💩
The remnants of reactor 4 at Chernobyl is now contained within the New Safe Confinement, a massive structure built using western money. It was quite an engineering feat.
I wouldn't worry too much. The nuclear part of a NPP is designed to withstand an airplane crash. Of course you can damage and destroy the non nuclear part which my cause troubles for the nuclear reactors. But general NPP are build with the highest safety standards. It would take a lot more than one drone or missile to create a catastrophe. Ukraine can't do this by accident, and the west will have to respond if they deliberately keep attacking NPP.
Not sure you're correct with respect to the older Kursk reactors. The Chernobyl-style reactors do not have the steel and concrete containment structure protecting them that the more common PWRs have.
Given that Ukraine is Russia's next door neighbor, it shows shockingly little concern for which way the plume might go if there is a radioactive release.
The Kursk incursion highlights a couple of potentially interesting developments.
First, the Ukraine forces appear to have achieved 'drone superiority' in the area, with Russian drone forces having reduced effectiveness. Whether that reflects new technology (fiber optic guided drones for instance) or simply better tactics is unknown, but it is a substantial development.
Second, Ukraine is apparently using its links to the Russian rail network to bring in the needed supplies. This is of course entirely logical, the systems were built to common standards and rail is vastly more capable than the local road network. However, this success indicates that the reports of Russian strikes crippling the Ukraine electric network should be taken with some skepticism, as the Ukraine rail system is overwhelmingly electric. Having functioning rail supply up to and beyond the original border shows that repairs have alleviated the damage, at least in priority instances.
Finally, the ability of Ukraine to push forward an effective strike group even though their forces remain under pressure in the Donbas suggests that the reports of crippling manpower shortages may be purposely exaggerated, a classic deceptive move.
Delusional take. Ukraine is losing on all ends. They are trying to hold some rediculous area gains while Russia annihilates them from a distance. Again, Ukraine has no functioning air force and Russia has a fire power advantage on the ground of 10:1.
The element they concentrated for the Kursk operation seems to be "maneuver assets" and probably SF. Most of the fighting by far remains in the East, with no reduction of intensity there. So Ukraine clearly retains its ability for static defense. But if they burn up the portion of the reserves capable of counterattack at full-brigade-scale, they'll be vulnerable to resumption of RF resuming long narrow thrusts and thus flanking maneuvers of their own like in the opening phase. Especially in the winter when the NATO advantage in satellite recon is neutralized by foul weather.
The imminent drafting of 18-year old cohort is also a bad sign. There were around 100k males in the circa 2005 birth years last year, at least according to wikipedia. I think they'll be lucky if they can get 50k out of each of those birth years. That'd be burning thru a draftable birth year each month!